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The Official Gerrit Cole (Please sign with the Angels) Thread


Chuck

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10 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Of course there will be progression, but not everyone you mentioned is going to progress. Jones could stall again, C-Rod could get hurt again, Jackson could struggle mightily facing tougher pitching, etc...

And yes, we'll be getting a number 10 pick, but assuming we sign a pitcher like Cole, we're losing a 2nd round pick. That means no Marsh, Canning, Jones, Jackson. And if we get another pitcher with a pick attached we lose our 3rd pick as well. 

Hopefully we do get significant progression over the next 2 years, but if we don't, our system isn't looking so good, again.

You don't need to rely on everyone progressing though TD. Adell and Marsh are great prospects, but they're only two. If two more step up, then you're fine.

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32 minutes ago, Second Base said:

You don't need to rely on everyone progressing though TD. Adell and Marsh are great prospects, but they're only two. If two more step up, then you're fine.

I think we disagree on where the system is currently. I'm not all about the Top 100 because it's just for show. But I mean, after Adell and Marsh, our system falls off quite a bit. Not drastically, mind you. Like I said I'm aware of the depth and how much better off we are now, I just don't think our system is better than middle of the pack. Take away our two best prospects and we're bottom 10, maybe bottom 5. Two guys step up and we're back to being middle of the pack. 

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36 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I think we disagree on where the system is currently. I'm not all about the Top 100 because it's just for show. But I mean, after Adell and Marsh, our system falls off quite a bit. Not drastically, mind you. Like I said I'm aware of the depth and how much better off we are now, I just don't think our system is better than middle of the pack. Take away our two best prospects and we're bottom 10, maybe bottom 5. Two guys step up and we're back to being middle of the pack. 

Yes, the quality of Adell and Marsh is difficult to replace, but again, Adams' upside is right there with them. Kochanowicz, Wilson, Hernandez, Rod, Soriano and whoever the 10th pick is, there's a ton of potential to match what they currently have in Adell and Marsh. 

I remember concerns were the same exact thing last year with Canning, Suarez and Adell.

As long as they keep drafting and signing the way they have for a few years now, it always works in the end. It only stops when a team starts trading their perspective away or sucks at drafting and signing like Dipoto did.

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32 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Ehhh. Once Adell and Marsh graduate our system goes back to being in the bottom 5. I understand we have more depth now and there's a lot of talent in the lower systems, but there's not a ton in High A/AA who are close to making the jump. 

If Adams and Jackson take big steps forward then we're basically right back to where we are now. We really need big years from Chris Rodriguez, Jose Soriano, Hector Yan, and Jam Jones. 

if we go back to bottom 5 then Eppler and Swanson's system for drafting and development has failed unless we trade away several prospects in a big deal.  

People arguing either side could be right but I'm just gonna weigh the odds.  I like the way Fangraphs stratifies so I'll kind use that as the scaffold.  

In general, the gap between the halos system being top 3rd as opposed to middle of the pack is in the 45+ to 50 FV range.  That makes a ton of sense relative to our gap in talent from A+ through AA.  Realistically, that should fill in some this year but unless some really amazing progression happens, it's still not going to be on par with the upper tier teams.  

Adell should graduate but Marsh won't.  But if 3 or 4 guys move from the 40 range and into the 45+ to 50 range, that should offset Adell.  A top ten pick should take care of 1 of those spots.  

The other thing to note is that we've got so much more international talent now but they're all age 16-19.  There's upside in the group we haven't had in 10 years.  Here's another thing that's important to remember about intl prospects.  They make up about 20-25% of the top 100 and more than half of them were signed before Eppler even got here.  

My guess is that we'll end up somewhere around the middle of the pack again, but the system will be in better shape because there isn't as much value concentrated into one or two guys.  

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Anyone concerned about some unknown unrepeatable positive impact the Astros cheating may have had on Cole's success? I mean he did dramatically improve after joining that team. Obviously sign stealing isn't really going to impact him, but it makes me wonder what else we don't know about the Astros.

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1 hour ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Anyone concerned about some unknown unrepeatable positive impact the Astros cheating may have had on Cole's success? I mean he did dramatically improve after joining that team. Obviously sign stealing isn't really going to impact him, but it makes me wonder what else we don't know about the Astros.

And Verlander basically having a Bonds-esque end to his career....

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22 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

Pretty dog shit that Cole has chosen to not sign with the Angels yet. 

Getting the feeling Boras will drag any Cole signing into late January. If so, i hope the team has a plan B,C,D.  I can see a scenario where the Angels get shut out on Free Agency, and have to use trades to try to improve. 

hoping a little reverse physc  will get things moving.

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