CartiHalos

12 games have come and gone, and, for lack of a better word, the results have left lots of room for conversation. The Angels are 6-6 - frankly, a result better than I expected, since I found our first month or so very difficult, schedule wise. Despite this, I am not pleased with the result, because based on the events of said 12 games, we could easily be 8-4 or even 9-3. That being said, we're still 2nd in the division and only a game back of the Rangers. With 150 games ahead, there's been a lot of good, a lot of bad, and some downright ugly play during the season thus far. Let's break down what fits where (PSA: These will 100% be overreactions to small sample sizes. I'll update it as more games are played and we start seeing more form.): Good: The Outfield (Mostly) The Angels made an interesting decision to take 5 outfielders on their roster - largely due to service time issues - but so far it's paid off for them. The 5 outfielders have a combined slash line of .259/.330/.519 for a total OPS+ of 138. Now, admittedly, these numbers are a little skewed - they're greatly helped by Taylor Ward and Mike Trout, who are sporting enormous 145 and 224 OPS+'s (not counting April 10th where Trout was 2-3 with a 2B, 1B and a BB and Ward was 1-3 with a 1B and a BB). Moniak has struggled in his own right, taking over for the second spot in the order since Schanuel was struggling. His OPS sits at a mere .476 - we hope it evens itself out, and the prospects look good - last year, Moniak's biggest struggle was with plate discipline - In 2023, he chased 47% of pitches out of the zone and whiffed on 39% of pitches he swung at, good for a 35% K rate and a measly 2% walk rate - all of which were bottom 5th percentile in the MLB. Thus far in 2024, he's chased 22% of pitches (down 25%), whiffed on 21% of swings (down 18%), strikes out 25% of the time (down 10%) and walks 13% of the time (up 11%). These are massive changes for the better, and if the bat get's back to 2023 form, the eye could complement for an even better season than his 2023. Jo Adell is rocking an .894 OPS, helped by a 2-4 day with a homer in his 3rd start of the season. His batted ball numbers are tremendous for the small sample size - his expected batting average and sweet-spot% are both 85th percentile or better, and his whiff% and K% are both 75th or better. While he's experienced blunders - like that surefire stolen base that he ran through - he's given the Angels a real reason to keep him in the lineup, and hopefully he can build on this success for the future. Hicks has been solid, not super special, but done a good job seeing pitches and playing a solid right field. Let's just say, if not for the outfield unit and this next guy, we may be 0-12. Good: Logan O'Hoppe Logan O'Hoppe hit the ground running in his 2024 campaign, catching 10 of the Angels first 12 contests and touting a ridiculous 179 OPS+. We always knew he had the bat, but what's equally impressive is how well rounded his game has been thus far - he's been an elite level framer (92nd percentile in Framing Runs Above Average), improved his BB% by nearly 4%, and even boasts a 76th percentile sprint speed. There isn't much more to say other than he leads American League catchers in, *deep breath* - AVG, OBP, wOBA, wRC+, fWar, Max Exit Velo, Hard Hit%, Fielding Percentage, Innings Caught, and Fielding Run Value. Oh, and he smoked a game-tying grand slam against the Red Sox. Good: Half the Pitching Unit Specifically, I'm Talking about Reid Detmers, Tyler Anderson, Adam Cimber, Matt Moore, and Carlos Estevez. These 5 guys have been outstanding. Let's go on a little honor roll of their achievements: Detmers: 2-0 in 2 starts with a 1.64 ERA. First start: 5 IP, 1 ER, 7 K's vs a potent O's offense. Second start: 6 IP, 1 ER, 12 K's. Utter dominance in a 2-1 win. Tyler Anderson: 2 beautiful 7 inning, scoreless starts. His 14 scoreless innings to start a season are 2nd in Angels history, behind Nolan Ryan's 16. Adam Cimber: 6 appearances, 6.2 IP (including 4.2 straight scoreless), 1 ER, good for a 1.35 ERA. Matt Moore: 4 appearances, 5 IP, 4 K's, 0 anything else. No men have seen base against Mighty Matt Moore. Carlos Estevez: 4 IP at 2023 all-star level, no earned runs and a 0.25 WHIP. He also ragged on the Fanatics jerseys which was pretty funny. Bad: The Infield Bats This group consists of Nolan Schanuel, Miguel Sano, Luis Rengifo, Brandon Drury, Zach Neto, and Anthony Rendon. Starting with the good, Rengifo has been respectable, albeit in the least at bats. He's slashing .333/.357/.407 and looks to be gunning for more playing time. Rendon has been on fire since returning to Anaheim, but his ice cold start still has him at 25 OPS+. Sano's strong batted ball skills got him off to a solid start, but he's ultimately simmered to an 87 OPS+. Neto and Drury have been similarly poor to start the year, with a 45 and 27 OPS+ respectively. Finally, Schanuel's 2-31, 27 OPS+ stretch got him a couple day breather. It's still very early, but when 6 of your 12 regulars account for just 1 of the 12 homers you've hit, you obviously desire more production. I have faith they'll figure it out, but I desperately hope one of the younger guys makes a bigger jump. Bad: The Scheduling This is more of a personal frustration than anything, but what is going on with the scheduling this year. How on earth is it possible that the AL West Angels first 8 series contains 2 series against the Rays, Red Sox, and Orioles and 2 against random NL teams. I guess I was complaining about playing the A's on opening day every year, but why are we playing them so late? All of our matchups vs the A's come between June 24 - July 28. We don't play our first game against an AL West team until May 17th. I know we play every team the same amount or whatever, but why are we running the damn AL East Gauntlet? I don't know man. Ugly: The Rest of the Pitching The Angels 5.09 Team ERA is 29th in the MLB, ahead of only Coors Field's very own Colorado Rockies. If you take away Tyler Anderson and Reid Detmers, that balloons to a 6.44, still 0.13 ahead of the Rockies, but still technically the worst since the Phillies in 1930. Take away the 3 good relievers, and we're at 7.85 - A whole run above the worst pitching team ever. Obviously, that's an overreaction - it's only been 15 games, but besides those 5 pitchers, it has truly been really bad. The only other 2 pitchers to pitch and not give up a run are Carson Fulmer, who came up after Guillermo Zuniga went on the IL, and Miguel Sano - in a game that the Angels lost 12-2. Sandoval seems to really let his emotions affect him on the mound, Canning's mistake pitches cost him some long balls, Silseth fell victim to homers and high pitch counts before he landed on the IL with elbow inflammation, and Soriano has yet to replicate his outstanding first relief performance. Add on the new bullpen arms in Luis Garcia, Jose Cisneros, and Guillermo Zuniga have all allowed 4 or more earned runs in 5 or less innings of work, and you have a recipe for some big losses in games not started by Detmers or Anderson. Thankfully, I don't possibly believe this level of terrible is sustainable. There's my roster breakdown for the season thus far. I think Ron's done a good job with what he has, and expectations weren't incredibly high to begin with. There's plenty of good, but enough bad to be frustrating. At least Mike Trout is back, Detmers looks good, and if we lose too many games we'll have a nice high draft pick to work with.

With most of the major player reassignment done, the Angels Opening Day roster is beginning to take shape. While a few questions still remain, I think I've seen enough to feel confident in posting my opinions here. I want to make it clear that I'm not a professional analyst, nor a professional hater. The things I'm talking about here are things I've been seeing and thinking all spring, and as much as I love the players the Angels have I'm an Angels fan above that. Anywhere I see shortcomings or inconsistencies on the roster I'll comment on it. With that said, let's talk about the roster: Too Many Angels In the Outfield? The entire Angels outfield has been absolutely stellar this Spring - Mike Trout (.694 OPS) has actually been the worst, but he remains Mike Trout. Taylor Ward (.753 OPS) looks to have left field locked up, new signings Aaron Hicks (1.314 OPS) and Jake Marisnick (1.164 OPS) have been outstanding, and the 25-and-under crowd have impressed as well with Mickey Moniak (.894 OPS), Jo Adell (.704 OPS), and Jordyn Adams (.844 OPS). That's 7 outfielders who have a chance at the 4 or possibly 5 outfield spots on the MLB roster. Getting the obvious out of the way, Mike Trout and Taylor Ward will be running center and left, respectively. Mickey Moniak has no remaining options, and has played great since his call up last May, making him the obvious choice for a potential platoon with recent Major League Signee Aaron Hicks in right. On the other hand Jordyn Adams appears slated to, at the very least, begin the season as a Bee. There's your 4 outfielders, however here's where things get tricky. Jo Adell has no options left, limiting the Angels choices to either A. Field him on the roster all year, B. Place him on waivers, or C. Try to find a trade partner for him. Option A seems most likely, bringing the total to 5 outfielders active for the Angels. In itself this isn't a problem, seeing as Trout will likely be getting a lot of looks at DH and Moniak is far better equipped to hit off righties. However, if we're fielding 5 outfielders, I'd almost prefer the 5th be Jake Marisnick. He's been outstanding this spring, is better defensively than Adell as well as better on the basepaths. Marisnick's 5 stolen bases lead the MLB (Adell is 4/4 in stolen base attempts, to be fair), and his defensive pedigree gives him value as both a defensive sub and a pinch runner, providing much needed versatility to an Angels bench that will likely consist of Matt Thaiss, Aaron Hicks, and Ehire Adrianza/Miguel Sano. Of course, I understand why Adell will likely be the 5th outfielder, as Marisnick is on a Minor League deal, so there's no harm no foul with him starting in Salt Lake while Adell makes the opening day roster. I just really hope we get to see if Marisnick can replicate this spring performance in the bigs at some point this year. Who Gets The 4th Bench Spot? Another internal battle is the battle for the 6th infielder/4th bench spot. It seems to have been cut down to Miguel Sano, Ehire Adrianza, and *maybe* Livan Soto. While Soto's performance should give him a real chance, I tend to believe he won't get the nod simply because he's younger and less experienced. Miguel Sano is incredibly fun to watch, however provides 0 value defensively, especially if Wash is trying to fit him in at 3rd on occasion. Adrianza provides familiarity for Washington from the Atlanta days and better positional versatility, albeit at a far lower offensive output than Sano. Adrianza's career high is a 102 wRC+, achieved in 2019 in Minnesota. His teammate, Miguel Sano, posted a 138 wRC+ in that same year, his best in a season with at least 100 games played. In my opinion, the spot should go to Sano, especially with the availability of DH at bats. Adrianza certainly provides value, but Rengifo, Drury, and Neto in the middle infield leaves less room for Adrianza to show it. Sano's role will likely be DHing, pinch hitting, and potentially covering first in case of Schanuel struggling, which I don't think he will. My only issue with this is it leaves Rengifo as the backup shortstop in case of Neto needing a day off, but here's to hoping that under Wash's guidance Rengifo can improve his shortstop defense to make that less of a problem. Who's the Closer? Last year, Carlos Estevez's first half was one of the most dominant Angels closer performances we've seen since K-Rod. He followed it up with a fine, not great, second half, and thus far in spring he's been very unimpressive. I'm not saying he can't bounce back, but I'd much rather see Robert Stephenson be the go to guy in high leverage situations - 9th inning or otherwise. However, assuming he's not ready to start the season - or struggles with injury during - who's the guy? We've seen Washington's teams close by committee before, with Gagne, Frank Francisco, and CJ Wilson sharing save opportunities before Neftali Feliz joined the team in 2010. Did Estevez's 2023 earn him the closer job this year? I kind of hope it didn't. There's too much talent in this group to be limited to traditional bullpen roles. I'd like to see Estevez, Stephenson, and Moore all get opportunities in the 9th. Rotational Problems? I will start this off by saying that, as a unit, the pitching has been incredible this spring, by Angels standards. Whether it's the new coaching or the new players, they've been throwing more strikes and it's been great to see. Last year, despite winning the Cactus League, the Angels were bottom 10 in ERA and walked more batters than everyone but the White Sox and A's in the spring. This year they've improved in both aspects, up to 17th in ERA and 22nd(!) in walks. While it's not indicative of a top 10 rotation, it's a nice change of pace from the past. That being said, within the rotation I've had some concerns. Reid Detmers has had a good spring in terms of making hitters miss and getting ground balls instead of fly balls, however mistake pitches still haunt him. Griffin Canning has looked excellent despite some control issues in a couple starts, but could be poised to make a huge jump this year. Chase Silseth looks outstanding, I still truly believe he could turn into a 120 ERA+ starter this year if given the opportunity to do so. Even Tyler Anderson has looked much better than he did last year, though time will tell with that one. Patrick Sandoval, though, hasn't looked very good. It's sad, because he flashed so much potential in 2022, followed it up with a dominant WBC before a disappointing 2023 and a 10.29 ERA this spring. Now, this is far from the end - Blake Snell posted a 5.62 ERA in spring last year and won the Cy Young. I bet Sandy will be very solid in our rotation this year, but it hurts to see this in terms of him becoming the ace it looked like he would become a couple years ago. A lot of his struggles seem rooted in getting behind in counts and getting frustrated with himself. Hopefully Barry Enright and Ron Washington can knock him out of that funk and get him into 2022 form again. Gotta root for the hometown kids. As Washington said in a recent interview with Rhett Bollinger, "Things can change where someone has to leave the rotation." This leads me to my last question - What Does Signing Blake Snell Do To The Angels Playoff Odds? Let me start off by saying this whole Snell situation is so very frustrating. If Heyman gets on a livestream and says "There's mutual interest between Snell and the Angels, but it's hard to tell if Arte is willing to spend" one more time I might delete Twitter. That being said, in this world we're gonna imagine Arte has a change of heart and the Angels sign Blake Snell. How much closer are we to the playoffs than we were without him? I think, honestly, quite a bit. I'm very publicly a supporter of Blake Snell, but I see the qualms people have with signing him. Giving up the 2nd round pick would certainly hurt, especially since our farm system isn't very good, but you can only hope that a second round pick becomes Blake Snell. Predictive stats and peripherals like Blake Snell more than results have even in his down years, and he's coming off a season where he won the ERA title by nearly 0.38 points, the biggest gap between #1 and #2 since 2007. The Angels lost Ohtani, and watching the team this spring has done nothing but make me believe the offense can hold their own without him, but the rotation is gonna miss him. Starting pitching is clearly the biggest hole this team has, and getting a clear top of the rotation arm fills that gap more than any other single player. We can throw 1 or 2 year prove it deals to players that used to be top of the line starters as much as we want, but to compete for a playoff spot in 2024 or even 2025, I think signing Snell now is the best chance we have.

For sure, there's a lot of unrealized talent on this roster so with a couple big jumps we could be right in the thick of things.

By @CartiHalos, AngelsWin.com Columnist With pitchers and catchers having reported, I like to think of the 2024 season as officially underway. While the angels won't play a game for another 9 days, the wheels of baseball are finally churning and as such, I'd like to give my predictions for the Angels and their players. While I'm not the most optimistic person in the world for this specific season, I think it's another season of Angels baseball and I'll never be too mad at getting to watch my Halos. Starting with team predictions... Record: 75-87, 4th in AL West As much as I wanted to put us as a sneaky 80-85 win team, it's not realistic for a team that only won 73 games last year and lost the MVP. While there's plenty of reason's to assume we'll be better than last year - primarily the ridiculously bad injury luck in 2023, the return of Trout/Rendon, and the further development of the young core of O'Hoppe/Schanuel/Neto/Moniak. Add on top of all of that Ron Washington taking the helm and I could see us propelled into the 80 win area. However, I think that an already faltering rotation that lost it's ace and an offense that would have to make a big jump to be elite makes it hard to project us in that range. Miguel Sano Cracks the Opening Day Roster: For a while I thought we'd pick up Urshela or another infielder that could cover first if Schanuel has some growing pains. While still possible, I think we end up rolling with what we have and the slugger has an impressive spring, leading to a Opening Day Roster spot and *maybe* even an opening day start at DH. We Enter 2025 MUCH more confident: While this isn't exactly a hot take, this prediction is mostly that we have multiple major breakouts (you'll see who I think does in the next section), and the moves we made this offseason are supplemented well by moves next offseason that make our roster far more complete and make the Angels a competitive team next year. Now onto individual player predictions, with a few stipulations - I'm gonna be *mostly* optimistic, it's more fun that way. - I'm predicting for the 26 players on the Opening Day Roster, projected by me. - There's a good chance that a team that performed to my predictions would win more than 75 games, but I'm trying to predict each player, optimistically, in a vacuum. - No Injuries. Don't want to speak anything into existence. Catchers: C Logan O'Hoppe - .245 AVG, 31 HR, 74 RBI, 122 wRC+, 2.4 fWar O'Hoppe puts his name out there in a big way with a 30 homer season and improves defensively, but his plate discipline and framing are still areas for improvement. C Matt Thaiss - .220 AVG, 7 HR, 24 RBI, 93 wRC+, 0.1 fWAR Thaiss gets less time to shine than hid did last year, but performs about the same in limited opportunity. Infielders: 1B Nolan Schanuel - .278 AVG, 16 HR, 55 RBI, 130 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR Schanuel's elite eye shines and his power comes through as he proves why he got called up so quickly. 1B Miguel Sano - .208 AVG, 5 HR, 13 RBI, 101 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR Sano shows off his pop in limited time, but is ultimately a non factor. 1B/2B/3B Brandon Drury - .258 AVG, 25 HR, 89 RBI, 110 wRC+, 2.4 fWAR Drury builds on his impressive 2022 and 2023 and maybe even gets moved to a contender at the deadline. SS Zach Neto - .250 AVG, 20 HR, 58 RBI, 105 wRC+ 2.7 fWAR Neto makes a big jump from last year, and poises himself for a monster age-24 breakout 2025. 3B Anthony Rendon - .252 AVG, 17 HR, 74 RBI, 115 wRC+, 2.9 fWAR This may come as a shock, but truthfully the last time Rendon was healthy and not absolutely outstanding was 2015. Assuming he isn't missing time, he could still very well put in some work for us. 2B/SS/3B Luis Rengifo - .243 AVG, 16 HR, 55 RBI, 98 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR Rengifo's struggles against righties catches up to him, but he still provides value defensively through his versatility. Outfielders: LF Taylor Ward - .271 AVG, 19 HR, 68 RBI, 120 wRC+, 3.0 fWAR I'm predicting a huge return to form for Ward, after an outstanding 2022 and a 2023 that was solid before being cut short by an Alek Manoah fastball, I think he bounces back big in an offense that needs him to badly. CF Mike Trout - .268 AVG, 38 HR, 103 RBI, 157 wRC+, 5.5 fWAR Mike Trout reminds everyone who he is and why he's the superstar in Anaheim with a monster season, aided partially by the DH position being opened up for him to rest and avoid injury. RF Mickey Moniak - .262 AVG, 18 HR, 59 RBI, 106 wRC+ 1.3 fWAR Mickey comes down to earth compared to his electric 2023 first half, but superb defense and good hard hit stats make for another solid season. OF Aaron Hicks - .270 AVG, 6 HR, 30 RBI, 103 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR Hicks offensive stats are boosted because he'll get a lot of chances against lefties, but he still doesn't get enough opportunity to make a major impact. OF Jo Adell - .225 AVG, 12 HR, 34 RBI, 94 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR Adell gets some big hits, but his plate discipline struggles and inconsistency still bleed through. Starting Pitchers: LHP Reid Detmers - 167 IP, 116 ERA+, 181 K, 3.78 FIP, 3.5 fWAR Detmers shines in a 5 man rotation, cuts back on mistake pitches en route to a career year. RHP Griffin Canning - 145.2 IP, 103 ERA+, 166 K, 4.24 FIP, 2.0 fWAR Canning nearly replicates his 2023 but at a higher volume. LHP Patrick Sandoval - 135 IP, 108 ERA+, 141 K, 3.92 FIP, 2.7 fWAR Sandy struggles a bit with his emotions on the mound, but a nice return to the solid #2/3 form we've seen in years past. LHP Tyler Anderson - 111 IP, 96 ERA+, 124 K, 4.60 FIP, 1.3 fWAR Anderson's struggles continue, but he still comes close to a league average season. RHP Chase Silseth - 155 IP, 127 ERA+, 166 K, 3.75 FIP, 4.4 fWAR Silseth is my top Angels breakout this year, proving he has real ability to not only be a starter, but a great one at that. Bullpen: Carlos Estevez - 4.20 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 26 Saves. Robert Stephenson - 2.13 ERA, 1.93 FIP, 10 Saves. Matt Moore - 2.99 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 2 Saves Jose Soriano - 3.23 ERA, 3.46 FIP Luis Garcia - 4.66 ERA, 4.74 FIP Adam Cimber - 3.63 ERA, 3.80 FIP Jose Cisnero - 4.44 ERA, 4.23 FIP Jose Suarez - 3.79 ERA, 4.21 FIP The bullpen gets a review as a whole, should be the most improved position group, with the new additions pulling their weight and the returners (for the most part) improving. Could see Estevez, Moore, Garcia, Cimber, and Suarez all getting looks from contenders at the deadline. To be completely honest, while this is probably the least optimistic I've been at the start of a season in a while, I like this teams core and I can't wait to watch the new additions get to work. Can't wait for another season of Angels baseball! Go Halos!

I still think he's the Mariners to lose. He's from Seattle, been there all offseason, and the Mariners have been salary dumping all offseason with nothing to show for it.

Not saying this is like a game-changing move or anything, but it is very not-Loupish.

Friday night, the Angels revealed their biggest signing yet - right-handed relief pitcher Robert Stephenson. Stephenson's career has been an interesting one to look at, but with a 2023 that was nothing short of monumental and several other outstanding years, it's fair to say his impact should be felt in the Angels bullpen come opening day. He first came onto the scene in 2016 as a Starting pitcher, starting 22 rather unimpressive games for the Reds from 2016-2018. Although his numbers from these years are nothing to gawk at (An 81 ERA+ and 5.50 FIP), the flashes of his ability to fool hitters shined through at times. From 2016-2018, Stephenson pitched in 37 games. In his first full year in a relief role, he made 57 appearances and absolutely hit his stride. It was an enormous step up from his previous production, with an ERA+ of 125 and a FIP in the high 3s over 64.2 innings. These numbers are respectable in themselves, but his underlying numbers were absurdly good. He made hitters swing and miss at a near league-best rate - his 39.0 Whiff% finished second to only new Astro Josh Hader. If the batter made the decision to swing, there was a 2 in 5 chance that they were hitting nothing but air. These whiffs were converting themselves into strikeouts, too. He was one of only 38 qualified pitchers to strike out 30% or more of the hitters he faced - out of 279 total. 2020 was a rough year, for baseball and for Robert Stephenson. He gave up 11 earned runs in only 10 innings, leading to the Reds shipping him and Jameson Hannah to Colorado for Case Williams and Jeff Hoffman. His 2021 campaign in Colorado was an impressive return to form, arguably Stephenson's best full season. He put up a 154 ERA+ and 3.63 FIP over 46 innings with solid swing-and-miss numbers as always. After a pretty poor start to 2022 from both Stephenson and the Rockies, they waived him and he was claimed by the Pittsburgh Pirates, where he finished 2022 strong, and even with his poor numbers still finished the season in the 93rd percentile in Chase%. Something to note with his time in Pittsburgh he seemed to pitch to a lot more contact than he did with the Reds or Rockies, which could have many different causes, but I lean towards blaming pitching coach Oscar Marin's ideologies. After yet another rough start with the Pirates, Stephenson was dealt to the Rays for Alika Williams in early June 2023. The next day, June 3rd, Stephenson did something he had never done over his entire career. He threw a cutter. Or, at least, a pitch Statcast defined as a cutter. He calls it a 'hard slider,' as opposed to his more loopy, top to bottom slider he's thrown his whole career. He then threw this 'hard slider' 41% of the time for the rest of the season, over 20% more than he threw any other pitch. It was the 4th best cutter in the MLB according to Baseball Savant, behind only very solid players like Corbin Burns and Kodai Senga, and per 100 pitches it's run value was only exceeded by Chris Martin's cutter. After moving to Tampa Bay, he went nuclear. Armed with the cutter, he exploded onto the scene, finally having his swing-and-miss abilities utilized. From June 2nd onward he struck out an unbelievable 42.9% of hitters faced, hitters whiffed on his pitches nearly 50% of the time, and chose to swing at his out-of-the-zone pitches nearly 40% of the time. Since pitch tracking began, nobody with 50 or more IP has ever had a higher percentage of their pitches be swinging strikes than Robert Stephenson's were in 2023. His career trajectory raises some question marks - do the Angels have the pitching mindset that Stephenson will succeed in? What was hindering his swing-and-miss numbers from leading to strong results in Cincinnati? Is this just classic Rays devil magic? and, most of all, is the cutter sustainable? After all, as much as it was dominant in 2023, it was a small sample size. The deal is for 3 years, $33 Million with an option. According to FanGraphs, 1 Win Above Replacement is about equal to $8 Million. By this logic, they'd project him at about 3 years, $22.5M - making this a moderate overpay for the Angels, however, after the Astros gave Hader $19M a year (FanGraphs estimates his worth at $13.6) Stephenson was the most coveted reliever on the board, making the overpay a byproduct of the market (also, I don't love WAR as a tool for judging relievers). After all this, 1 question remains - Why? The Angels offseason has been, very noticeably, painfully slow. Which makes this Stephenson deal feel very odd. You won 73 games last year, lost your top performer, haven't made practically any improvements, and you sign a relief pitcher to a multi-year, 8 figure deal? It feels like a deal that the Phillies or the Rangers would make, not the Angels in their current state. Personally, I have 3 possible theories: 1) The Angels are gearing up for a 2025 push. Their young studs will all be a year older, next offseason will have less uncertainty since presumably the Bally thing will be over with, and there's a lot of talent in the free agent class next year (especially on the pitching end). Signing Stephenson now gives you a concrete arm in the pen that's relatively inexpensive and allows you to focus on starting pitching and middle of the order bats next year like Burnes or Santander. 2) Arte isn't keen on spending money, so this is the biggest splash that could be made. From what's being reported it seems to be a strange situation with Bally Sports and Diamond and all the potential lost money that's hindering the Angels willingness to spend. It's possible that names like Bellinger, Snell, Montgomery are all being tossed around, but are unrealistic and wouldn't get approved because of the price tag, leading Perry and Co. to look at players in the $8-12M price range who can have an impact ASAP. Stephenson would be a pretty solid fit for that kind of approach, as would players like Duvall or Kike Hernandez. 3) The front office spun a wheel and it landed on Stephenson, so they signed him. The next wheel spin's choice has not yet been reported. Which of these is correct, I'm afraid we may never know. Only time will tell. All in all, I'm not offended by this deal. It's certainly risky, but it's the kind of risk that is both capable of paying off in a major way and manageable if things go awry. Stephenson was one of my most desired free agents for essentially all of the offseason so far, although I was anticipating a few more corresponding moves to go along with it. At the very least, this Angels bullpen will be extremely interesting to watch with their mix of funky deliveries, fireballers, and stuff wizards.

I know this was just a silly joke, but makes you ponder the tactical advantage of deferring $210 of a $100M+ contract. Maybe by the time he's 239 he'll be able to afford Dodgers tickets?

At the risk of being pessimistic, I think anyone expecting us to win more than 80 games next year is going to be very upset. Seems like we're gearing up for 2025-26.

Murray did indeed break the Plesac signing so maybe he has a good source inside the org, but I really just think nobody knows what the Angels are actually up to.

to me this means we're getting like 4 more 8-10 M players like Duvall or Lorenzen. Might be a long season.

He goes on to say that the Angels, "Cannot be counted out," but I don't really believe him. Local reporting seems to imply that the Giants aren't very involved, so I'm not sure what to believe. This offseason is a giant mystery.

Snell's from Seattle, so maybe they're a player now. Also, wonder if the Giants getting Ray takes them out for Imanaga? Would leave us, the Sox, and the Cubs.

I think ideally if we get him it's because we're spending big on pitching, and he's somewhat in a hybrid platoon where Duvall starts against lefties and some against righties, and Mickey gets his ABs against righties.

OBP yeah I guess, his career OPS is fine though, he had nearly 50 XBHs in 92 games last year (14 more than Trout did AND Duvall had less PA), average defense is more than some other FA candidates can say, and don't really mind he's 35 if it's a 1 year deal.