Pancake Bear

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  1. How would Betts make sense for the Padres? Does he make them a WS favorite? I don’t think he extends and I’ve seen no sign they’re open to another big money contract - and Betts will dwarf Machado and Hosmer’s. Either they think they can compete, or they think they can re-sign him, or they’re dumb as heck.
  2. “90% think the Angels aren’t a playoff team”. More teams competing means less top and bottom heavy. Means upper 80’s/90 puts us in range for the playoffs. Vegas oddsmakers I saw had us over Tampa. Only team I’m certain is better is NY. Aside from that, I’m not even positive the Astros will be. There’s roughly 4 teams in the AL who aren’t competing (SEA, KC, DET, BAL). That means 11 teams are trying to get in. Who are the teams that are so much better they’ll be blowing everyone away? Not Houston. Maybe New York.
  3. “I’ll just ignore the posts that prove me wrong. That’ll show them.”
  4. I wouldn’t imagine it makes much difference. Teams already have their own valuation of different prospects. It offers extra validation of what we believed, but I can’t imagine many teams are going, “Oh, Marsh is worth more than we thought. BA said so.”
  5. Comparison on FG depth charts vs Zips (IP/WAR projection) Teheran 179 0.5 165 1.7 Bundy 178 2.2 156 1.8 Heaney 168 2.8 133 2.1 Canning 135 1.7 106 1.5 Ohtani 110 2.2 70 1.3 Sandoval 66 0.6 131 1.7 Zips is probably the more accurate on Teheran and Heaney, but I think Fangraphs' depth chart projection will likely be more accurate on the rest.
  6. Yeah, this is why we don't rely on our perception. The numbers make it clear Anderson wasn't anything more than a good major league player. He was good enough to be an all-star once or twice in his career. Otherwise, he was just a solid player. Nothing more or less.
  7. Like I said, if Daniels trades for Arenado, it gets a lot more interesting.
  8. My comment was related to a Wild Card spot. Typically when four teams in a division go for it, at least one falls off. I think the Rangers are trying to compete for a WC spot, I’m just skeptical they’re quite good enough, although Arenado would make it very interesting for sure. I was not at all meaning that they’re going to suck like Seattle.
  9. Baseball Reference disagrees. Since it’s rooted in quantifiable facts, as opposed to subjective opinion, I’m going to take its side in this debate. Not to say it’s perfect, but it’s a heck of a lot better than either of our opinions.
  10. It’s close, but comparing the two, probably Walker. Jeter has the advantage of playing SS, unfortunately he didn’t play it especially well. On the other hand, it’s maybe easier to find a good outfielder than a good shortstop, so I’m not super confident in that. Either way, Walker was a top 100 all time player. Counting him out because his team never made the playoffs makes no sense to me. He more than earned it in the regular season.
  11. My bad. Your solution is problematic and historically challenged imho.
  12. You think they can just magically keep Betts beyond 2020? That's, uh, not how it works. And I don't think Moreno is interested in paying 360(or more) million to a guy who doesn't pitch (actually, I don't think anyone is paying that much even to someone who does pitch). Price is a gigantic injury risk. He's had elbow issues in recent years. He's far from a sure thing to be healthy. Making a move like that would set the farm back a bit, depending just how much it cost. It would destroy payroll, limiting flexibility going forward with Price's contract (depending how much Boston paid down - wouldn't expect much; at most 10m a season). When that colossally stupid idea crashes and burns, the only way forward is to try to spend your way out of it, which almost never is successful. Most likely it would be 2013 and onward redux. Thanks, but no thanks. I've been there, seen that show. It's a trainwreck. The only way forward is by being patient. Going full Dipoto is what stupid teams do. You apparently don't get that.
  13. Actually, I think you’ve missed the point. Winning the WS is never a foregone conclusion. The point in not trading young controllable assets isn’t that we think they’re sure to be good, it’s in large part that they represent valuable currency that shouldn’t be wasted. Blowing that currency is what Dipoto did. It was the wrong time and it set the franchise back years. There’s only so much you can buy yourself out of unless the owner just says ‘screw it’ and ups payroll to 300m. Every year there are examples of teams that got ahead of themselves and blew their window through impatience. Betts and Price do not make us favorites to win this year, and we’d be stuck with Price for better or worse, for richer or poorer, as long as his contract shall last. That contract would give us less flexibility to make moves next season, and trading top prospects on top of it for one season of Betts? That only makes sense if you’re all in. We aren’t and shouldn’t be.
  14. So Walker’s out because his team never played in the postseason? I guess Trout is out, too. Dan Marino must not meet your high standards since he didn’t have a high enough TAR (teammates above replacement).