AngelsWin Today: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly: 12 Games In

[AngelsWin.com]

12 games have come and gone, and, for lack of a better word, the results have left lots of room for conversation.

The Angels are 6-6 - frankly, a result better than I expected, since I found our first month or so very difficult, schedule wise.  Despite this, I am not pleased with the result, because based on the events of said 12 games, we could easily be 8-4 or even 9-3.  That being said, we're still 2nd in the division and only a game back of the Rangers. With 150 games ahead, there's been a lot of good, a lot of bad, and some downright ugly play during the season thus far.  Let's break down what fits where (PSA: These will 100% be overreactions to small sample sizes. I'll update it as more games are played and we start seeing more form.):

Good: The Outfield (Mostly)

The Angels made an interesting decision to take 5 outfielders on their roster - largely due to service time issues - but so far it's paid off for them.  The 5 outfielders have a combined slash line of .259/.330/.519 for a total OPS+ of 138. Now, admittedly, these numbers are a little skewed - they're greatly helped by Taylor Ward and Mike Trout, who are sporting enormous 145 and 224 OPS+'s (not counting April 10th where Trout was 2-3 with a 2B, 1B and a BB and Ward was 1-3 with a 1B and a BB). Moniak has struggled in his own right, taking over for the second spot in the order since Schanuel was struggling. His OPS sits at a mere .476 - we hope it evens itself out, and the prospects look good - last year, Moniak's biggest struggle was with plate discipline - In 2023, he chased 47% of pitches out of the zone and whiffed on 39% of pitches he swung at, good for a 35% K rate and a measly 2% walk rate - all of which were bottom 5th percentile in the MLB.  Thus far in 2024, he's chased 22% of pitches (down 25%), whiffed on 21% of swings (down 18%), strikes out 25% of the time (down 10%) and walks 13% of the time (up 11%). These are massive changes for the better, and if the bat get's back to 2023 form, the eye could complement for an even better season than his 2023.  Jo Adell is rocking an .894 OPS, helped by a 2-4 day with a homer in his 3rd start of the season. His batted ball numbers are tremendous for the small sample size - his expected batting average and sweet-spot% are both 85th percentile or better, and his whiff% and K% are both 75th or better. While he's experienced blunders - like that surefire stolen base that he ran through - he's given the Angels a real reason to keep him in the lineup, and hopefully he can build on this success for the future. Hicks has been solid, not super special, but done a good job seeing pitches and playing a solid right field.  Let's just say, if not for the outfield unit and this next guy, we may be 0-12. 

Good: Logan O'Hoppe

Logan O'Hoppe hit the ground running in his 2024 campaign, catching 10 of the Angels first 12 contests and touting a ridiculous 179 OPS+. We always knew he had the bat, but what's equally impressive is how well rounded his game has been thus far - he's been an elite level framer (92nd percentile in Framing Runs Above Average), improved his BB% by nearly 4%, and even boasts a 76th percentile sprint speed.  There isn't much more to say other than he leads American League catchers in, *deep breath* -

AVG, OBP, wOBA, wRC+, fWar, Max Exit Velo, Hard Hit%, Fielding Percentage, Innings Caught, and Fielding Run Value. 

Oh, and he smoked a game-tying grand slam against the Red Sox.

Good: Half the Pitching Unit

Specifically, I'm Talking about Reid Detmers, Tyler Anderson, Adam Cimber, Matt Moore, and Carlos Estevez. These 5 guys have been outstanding. Let's go on a little honor roll of their achievements:

Detmers: 2-0 in 2 starts with a 1.64 ERA. First start: 5 IP, 1 ER, 7 K's vs a potent O's offense. Second start: 6 IP, 1 ER, 12 K's. Utter dominance in a 2-1 win.

Tyler Anderson: 2 beautiful 7 inning, scoreless starts. His 14 scoreless innings to start a season are 2nd in Angels history, behind Nolan Ryan's 16. 

Adam Cimber: 6 appearances, 6.2 IP (including 4.2 straight scoreless), 1 ER, good for a 1.35 ERA.  

Matt Moore: 4 appearances, 5 IP, 4 K's, 0 anything else. No men have seen base against Mighty Matt Moore. 

Carlos Estevez: 4 IP at 2023 all-star level, no earned runs and a 0.25 WHIP. He also ragged on the Fanatics jerseys which was pretty funny. 

Bad: The Infield Bats

This group consists of Nolan Schanuel, Miguel Sano, Luis Rengifo, Brandon Drury, Zach Neto, and Anthony Rendon.  Starting with the good, Rengifo has been respectable, albeit in the least at bats.  He's slashing .333/.357/.407 and looks to be gunning for more playing time. Rendon has been on fire since returning to Anaheim, but his ice cold start still has him at 25 OPS+. Sano's strong batted ball skills got him off to a solid start, but he's ultimately simmered to an 87 OPS+. Neto and Drury have been similarly poor to start the year, with a 45 and 27 OPS+ respectively. Finally, Schanuel's 2-31, 27 OPS+ stretch got him a couple day breather. It's still very early, but when 6 of your 12 regulars account for just 1 of the 12 homers you've hit, you obviously desire more production. I have faith they'll figure it out, but I desperately hope one of the younger guys makes a bigger jump.  

Bad: The Scheduling

This is more of a personal frustration than anything, but what is going on with the scheduling this year.  How on earth is it possible that the AL West Angels first 8 series contains 2 series against the Rays, Red Sox, and Orioles and 2 against random NL teams. I guess I was complaining about playing the A's on opening day every year, but why are we playing them so late? All of our matchups vs the A's come between June 24 - July 28. We don't play our first game against an AL West team until May 17th.  I know we play every team the same amount or whatever, but why are we running the damn AL East Gauntlet? I don't know man. 

Ugly: The Rest of the Pitching

The Angels 5.09 Team ERA is 29th in the MLB, ahead of only Coors Field's very own Colorado Rockies. If you take away Tyler Anderson and Reid Detmers, that balloons to a 6.44, still 0.13 ahead of the Rockies, but still technically the worst since the Phillies in 1930.  Take away the 3 good relievers, and we're at 7.85 - A whole run above the worst pitching team ever.  Obviously, that's an overreaction - it's only been 15 games, but besides those 5 pitchers, it has truly been really bad.  The only other 2 pitchers to pitch and not give up a run are Carson Fulmer, who came up after Guillermo Zuniga went on the IL, and Miguel Sano - in a game that the Angels lost 12-2.  Sandoval seems to really let his emotions affect him on the mound, Canning's mistake pitches cost him some long balls, Silseth fell victim to homers and high pitch counts before he landed on the IL with elbow inflammation, and Soriano has yet to replicate his outstanding first relief performance. Add on the new bullpen arms in Luis Garcia, Jose Cisneros, and Guillermo Zuniga have all allowed 4 or more earned runs in 5 or less innings of work, and you have a recipe for some big losses in games not started by Detmers or Anderson.  Thankfully, I don't possibly believe this level of terrible is sustainable. 

 

There's my roster breakdown for the season thus far. I think Ron's done a good job with what he has, and expectations weren't incredibly high to begin with. There's plenty of good, but enough bad to be frustrating. At least Mike Trout is back, Detmers looks good, and if we lose too many games we'll have a nice high draft pick to work with. 

 

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[EDinTUSTIN]

You summed it up very well. As usual, a great read.

[Angelsjunky]

A few random thoughts.

It is so so SO good to see Trout raking.  Don't know what else to say, but I think he's back - even vintage (i.e. 170+ wRC+).

My two semi-surprise breakout picks for this year were Taylor Ward and Luis Rengifo. Too small of a sample size, but so far, so good. If Rengifo gets the playing time, and if he keeps hitting, he will.

Not worried about Neto or Schanuel. Both are young and inexperienced, and both will improve. As I said in another thread, you don't bail on Schanuel after 41 PA. Give him to about 100 and then re-essess. Meaning, end of month.

I am a bit worried about the pitching, though. Sandoval looks like more of the same from Spring Training and last year: he's trending downward, and something seems off. I do think Detmers is legitimately having a breakout year, and I even think Anderson is going to continue to be a solid performer, though we should be realistic and be happy with 180 IP of 4.00 ERA ball. He's capable of that, which would be a huge boon. Canning has been kind of disappointing - a lot of folks thought he would finally take that step forward. The season is young, though. And Silseth? Well, I have my doubts about his future. He and Bachman are the two Angels that are most over-rated by fans. I've commented that literally no one but Angels fans see Silseth as anything more than a future #4.

Finally, I must admit to being cautiously optimistic about Adell. I know, we say it every year: he looks different. But he really does. Moniak, I think, will prove that 2023 was rather flukey, and Adell will win the starting job outright. Ward-Trout-Adell could be fearsome. If given the playing time, that could be 100 bombs.

[Pancake Bear]

Adell has the body of a freak of a nature and the baseball iq of a middle schooler. Frustrating because it's not hard to see what he could be, but he just keeps making these absolutely boneheaded plays. 

[Chuck]

Good stuff @CartiHalos!!!