The underlying point that leadoff walks are especially damaging is correct, and you did phrase it as a thought experiment. It's not anywhere near a plausible scenario though, being that the players union would nip that in the bud immediately. Perhaps if you proposed an incentive rather that a penalty it might gain more engagement in the "thought experiment".
When he was drafted there was talk about Adell's "makeup and maturity". In hindsight, it seems like excitement over his potential, which was and is undisputable, projected those attributes on him. Wash's comments are fairly telling. Hoping for the team's sake that he puts it all together and earns large increases through his arb years.
AJ, a couple of years ago you had a fantastic post that compared the Nationals and other WS teams with heavy top ends with other rotations deep with 2s & 3s. As I recall, the jist was that because relying on having #1-types is difficult to draft/project/develop/acquire (also risky due to the likelihood of injury), that the trend of WS winners was towards deeper rotations with mid-tier arms. Anyway, I doubt that I summarized that post well but, it was a fantastic analysis and very relevant to the current conversation.
That's assuming a lot, namely that the Feds will look the other way at what appears to be Ohtani changing his story once finding out the seriousness of admitting to making the wire transfers. Before saying that Ippei stole the money there were reports saying that Shohei admitted to paying the debts to an illegal bookie with wire transfers. Federal crime right there, if indeed true. Should the Feds pursue that, MLB will not just allow him to keep playing while a federal charge is hanging over his head.