Holy Hell, Trevor Bauer!

[tdawg87]

2 hours ago, Pancake Bear said:

Here's another: Four years prior to FA (Corbin's fifth year was out due to injury).

Bauer 12.5 bWAR, 14.4 fWAR

Corbin 7.3 bWAR, 11.3 bWAR

Thats not a small difference. 

Strasburg (fwiw) 19.7 bWAR, 18 fWAR

Again - comfortably less than Strasburg, noticeably more than Corbin. 

No way do you use raw ERA and WAR to compare pitchers. 

Bauer is better than Corbin, but not by as much as you are saying. They're pretty comparable. Let's look at their career numbers:

Bauer: 113 ERA+, 3.85 FIP, 3.96 xFIP, 3.7 bb/9, 9.7 k/9, 2.82 k/bb%

Corbin: 112 ERA+, 3.65 FIP, 3.51 xFIP, 2.7 bb/9, 8.9 k/9, 3.33 k/bb%

So overall, they have pretty much the same ERA, Corbin has a better FIP and xFIP, as well as a better BB/9 and K/bb ratio. Bauer has a better K percentage. Also, Corbin is one of the best groundball pitchers in baseball. This is something that gets overlooked a lot but it's important. 

Now with regards to where they are/were at the time of free agency, Corbin was coming off the best year of his career, posting a 133 ERA+, 200 innings, 2.47 FIP, career bests in k rate, FIP, and a fucking absurd K/bb ratio (5.13!). Not to mention, the year before he had a respectable 116 ERA+ and 190 innings pitched.

Bauer had an incredible 2020. But it was 11 starts. In 2019 he had a 106 ERA+ and 213 IP. In 2018 he was incredible, no question about that, but in 2017 he had a 109 ERA+. So he had an unbelievable season sandwiched by two solid ones. 

Again, Bauer is better. I'm not questioning that. But he's not that much better.

We'll see how it all plays out.

[tdawg87]

52 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Every year this board lowballs significantly what they imagine FA's will go for and every year they are hilariously wrong. 

Can you source that? Other than last year, which literally no one expected Cole or Strasberg to get anywhere close to what they got, what other examples can you provide?

[Pancake Bear]

51 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Can you source that? Other than last year, which literally no one expected Cole or Strasberg to get anywhere close to what they got, what other examples can you provide?

Name the top options any of the last few years.  Nobody thought Corbin was getting 140m. People thought Zack Wheeler cost more than expected even last year well before Stras and Cole were off the board. 
 

Edit: Okay, just for fun, here's one. Had trouble getting the quote from Corbin where you said Corbin jacked up the market and Keuchel was gonna get 6/160.

And on Wheeler, consensus is his deal was more than expected, but not by a ton. Thing is, he took a lower deal than offered elsewhere to play in Philly. In neither case did anyone (least not that I saw) on here see them making as much as they did, although a few were close, and a number of people were a complaining about how high both went for.

 

[Pancake Bear]

43 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Bauer is better than Corbin, but not by as much as you are saying. They're pretty comparable. Let's look at their career numbers:

Career averages is worthless for analysis. That's why I only looked at the last years. A lot changes for a pitcher in even a few years. Recent history (and his own analytical process) suggests Bauer has unlocked something and improved substantially over his early career. His 2019 was certainly an aberration, but if you think teams aren't going to bet on the upside of 2018 and 2020, I don't know what to tell you. 

Also, I didn't just use ERA, but kudos on just focusing on one part of the analysis. ERA+,FIP, and WAR (either version) also show Bauer a clip above Corbin over the last few years although pretty noticeably below Strasburg. 

[angelsnationtalk]

At least #BauerToAnaheim is trending on twitter

[Pancake Bear]

5 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

At least #BauerToAnaheim is trending on twitter

Bet Arte will love that one. 

[rafibomb]

 

 

[Lou]

Agent Rachel Luba.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bruin 

[Docwaukee]

5 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

No way do you use raw ERA and WAR to compare pitchers. 

Bauer is better than Corbin, but not by as much as you are saying. They're pretty comparable. Let's look at their career numbers:

Bauer: 113 ERA+, 3.85 FIP, 3.96 xFIP, 3.7 bb/9, 9.7 k/9, 2.82 k/bb%

Corbin: 112 ERA+, 3.65 FIP, 3.51 xFIP, 2.7 bb/9, 8.9 k/9, 3.33 k/bb%

So overall, they have pretty much the same ERA, Corbin has a better FIP and xFIP, as well as a better BB/9 and K/bb ratio. Bauer has a better K percentage. Also, Corbin is one of the best groundball pitchers in baseball. This is something that gets overlooked a lot but it's important. 

Now with regards to where they are/were at the time of free agency, Corbin was coming off the best year of his career, posting a 133 ERA+, 200 innings, 2.47 FIP, career bests in k rate, FIP, and a fucking absurd K/bb ratio (5.13!). Not to mention, the year before he had a respectable 116 ERA+ and 190 innings pitched.

Bauer had an incredible 2020. But it was 11 starts. In 2019 he had a 106 ERA+ and 213 IP. In 2018 he was incredible, no question about that, but in 2017 he had a 109 ERA+. So he had an unbelievable season sandwiched by two solid ones. 

Again, Bauer is better. I'm not questioning that. But he's not that much better.

We'll see how it all plays out.

Nice job.  This is pretty much what I saw when I mentioned that they were similar.   Bauer has more mileage on his arm and he's about half a year older than Corbin was as a FA.  I agree that Bauer is a bit better but Covid and with him being a bit older, I think his AAV will be a bit higher but maybe for 1yr less.  

I also don't think Bauer will automatically take the most money.  It'll have to be damn close but I could see him wanting to maintain his ability to be traded if he doesn't like his situation down the road.  I know that sounds like and odd consideration and it might be a bit far fetched, but I get the sense that he will actually do what he's said he'll do and weight other factors into his decision.  

Now, if someone gives him 7/210 then that might be hard to pass up and whoever that is, they can have him for that.  

I still like my 5/135 estimate but yeah, it might creep to 6/165.  The other thing to consider was that I was way the F off with Cole and Stras.  Granted, I consider the Stras contract utterly absurd 

[TooCool]

4 hours ago, Pancake Bear said:

Bet Arte will love that one. 

Arte's like "LOS ANGELES!!!!"

Then he goes to the Dodgers.. =\

[tdawg87]

4 hours ago, Pancake Bear said:

Career averages is worthless for analysis. That's why I only looked at the last years. A lot changes for a pitcher in even a few years. Recent history (and his own analytical process) suggests Bauer has unlocked something and improved substantially over his early career. His 2019 was certainly an aberration, but if you think teams aren't going to bet on the upside of 2018 and 2020, I don't know what to tell you. 

Also, I didn't just use ERA, but kudos on just focusing on one part of the analysis. ERA+,FIP, and WAR (either version) also show Bauer a clip above Corbin over the last few years although pretty noticeably below Strasburg. 

You used ERA and WAR. Your words.

[Warfarin]

I give Bauer and his agent credit, they are both actively trolling the Angels' fan base, lol.

Bauer is definitely good at working on his brand.  I'm going to guess that the Angels have had contact with them, and perhaps they're somewhat close in terms of what they want, but don't quite have the deal they want.  So maybe this is Bauer and his agent's way of putting pressure on Arte/Minasian/etc to improve their offer.

Or, it could just all be nothing, but the consistency of what they are doing suggests to me that he has received a significant offer from the Angels, but not enough for him to sign, and this is their way of trying to ramp up pressure for the Angels' FO to meet their demands.

[wopphil]

8 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

No way do you use raw ERA and WAR to compare pitchers. 

Bauer is better than Corbin, but not by as much as you are saying. They're pretty comparable. Let's look at their career numbers:

Bauer: 113 ERA+, 3.85 FIP, 3.96 xFIP, 3.7 bb/9, 9.7 k/9, 2.82 k/bb%

Corbin: 112 ERA+, 3.65 FIP, 3.51 xFIP, 2.7 bb/9, 8.9 k/9, 3.33 k/bb%

So overall, they have pretty much the same ERA, Corbin has a better FIP and xFIP, as well as a better BB/9 and K/bb ratio. Bauer has a better K percentage. Also, Corbin is one of the best groundball pitchers in baseball. This is something that gets overlooked a lot but it's important. 

Now with regards to where they are/were at the time of free agency, Corbin was coming off the best year of his career, posting a 133 ERA+, 200 innings, 2.47 FIP, career bests in k rate, FIP, and a fucking absurd K/bb ratio (5.13!). Not to mention, the year before he had a respectable 116 ERA+ and 190 innings pitched.

Bauer had an incredible 2020. But it was 11 starts. In 2019 he had a 106 ERA+ and 213 IP. In 2018 he was incredible, no question about that, but in 2017 he had a 109 ERA+. So he had an unbelievable season sandwiched by two solid ones. 

Again, Bauer is better. I'm not questioning that. But he's not that much better.

We'll see how it all plays out.

Good post. I think you make a good case that Bauer is worth Corbin’s annual value, perhaps for a year less. But I think there is a belief that Bauer is better than he really is, and he dramatically increased his value with a huge free agent year. 
 

I think Corbin got six years and about $23 mil per. I think Bauer gets six years as well, and probably closer to $27-$28 per. So I am thinking he ends up somewhere around 6/162 to 6/$168. 

[T.G.]

7 hours ago, Lou said:

Agent Rachel Luba.

Hot Bruin 

 

[CanadianHalo]

52 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

I give Bauer and his agent credit, they are both actively trolling the Angels' fan base, lol.

Bauer is definitely good at working on his brand.  I'm going to guess that the Angels have had contact with them, and perhaps they're somewhat close in terms of what they want, but don't quite have the deal they want.  So maybe this is Bauer and his agent's way of putting pressure on Arte/Minasian/etc to improve their offer.

Or, it could just all be nothing, but the consistency of what they are doing suggests to me that he has received a significant offer from the Angels, but not enough for him to sign, and this is their way of trying to ramp up pressure for the Angels' FO to meet their demands.

Yeah as this drags out the more and more it looks like it was a leverage play heading into the winter meetings.

He may ultimately wind up with the Angels but his prior tweets on Thursday/Friday were part of his game. He’d have signed by now if they were anything more IMO. 

Everyone and their dog knows how desperate the Angels are for pitching so I don’t blame guys one bit for using it to their advantage. 

Didn’t Fletcher tweet out those emojis on a Sunday night last year and Cole ended up signing late Wednesday? This is starting to feel the same way

[Vlad27Trout27]

i think you offer Bauer similar money to what, Corbin and Wheeler got. I'm sorry, but in my books he's not worth over 25 mil. 

[Jay]

not my money

[Tank]

Looks like I need to head to the winter meetings. 
Wish me luck, lads.

[ScottT]

4 hours ago, Warfarin said:

I give Bauer and his agent credit, they are both actively trolling the Angels' fan base, lol.

Bauer is definitely good at working on his brand.  I'm going to guess that the Angels have had contact with them, and perhaps they're somewhat close in terms of what they want, but don't quite have the deal they want.  So maybe this is Bauer and his agent's way of putting pressure on Arte/Minasian/etc to improve their offer.

Or, it could just all be nothing, but the consistency of what they are doing suggests to me that he has received a significant offer from the Angels, but not enough for him to sign, and this is their way of trying to ramp up pressure for the Angels' FO to meet their demands.

The silliness on Twitter has zero effect on where he signs, who goes after him, or how hard any team tries to sign him.

[Angels in 2030]

I’d love Bauer on a one year deal.  Or even a 2-3 if he were willing to do so.  He’s the one guy obviously who could.  But a 5-6+ FA contract for a pitchers 30-35+ years.....history tells me that a bad decision/investment. 

[T.G.]

2 hours ago, Tank said:

Looks like I need to head to the winter meetings. 
Wish me luck, lads.

Someone needs to stop tank by any means necessary. The future of Angels baseball is at stake.

 

 

 

 

*launches drone*

[Angels_Make_Me_Drink]

Ultimately its not my money and I’m sick of the same sub .500 Angels every year that somehow members on this board think is going to change each season...whatever rationale you guys use for the clean peanut or whatever the hell it is doesn’t work. There is a reason why we suck each year and its because we don’t spend on pitching. So whatever it takes to sign Bauer and trade for Snell, I’m on board. Enough is enough. 

[Dtwncbad]

1 hour ago, Fourts said:

I’d love Bauer on a one year deal.  Or even a 2-3 if he were willing to do so.  He’s the one guy obviously who could.  But a 5-6+ FA contract for a pitchers 30-35+ years.....history tells me that a bad decision/investment. 

Yeah.  He might be good for a couple or three years but then those last two would be challenging.

So the Angels should pass and just understand that it is better to just never have any good pitching.

[Tank]

1 hour ago, T.G. said:

Someone needs to stop tank by any means necessary. The future of Angels baseball is at stake.

 

 

 

 

*launches drone*

[Taylor]

Bauer is not an ace. He also lacks good hips. Far below my standards.