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Warfarin

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Warfarin last won the day on January 10 2023

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  1. I know most people assume you have to spend a lot of money to win, but the Rays (and Guardians for awhile) prove every year that you don't. A team with a strong analysis and scouting department can circumvent player payroll. What we need Arte to do, beyond all else, is invest heavily in those areas. It DOES seem like he is starting to, but that is only a fairly recent development. We have some good young talent, but obviously need more. What we CAN'T do, IMO, is start trading our young talent for "win now" type moves. Keep developing players, see if you can overpay (within reason) for a player or two, and then keep building from within.
  2. Yep, this. I think I read that Ohtani makes like 40 million a year in endorsements? His salary is just icing on the cake.
  3. Errr, that's interesting. Mark Walter is 63 years old. What if he like.. dies suddenly? Can Ohtani opt out then? Seems rather interesting that the people who offered this contract (Walter, Friedman) can include a provision that essentially guarantees them 10 year job security.
  4. @T.G., I hear what you are saying and totally get it from a fan perspecitve. I have positive memories of those players in the same way for the way they spent their careers here. In Shohei's case, though, I likewise totally get this move and don't fault him for it either. Shohei can achieve something that very few ever can - he could, quite possibly, be the greatest player to have ever played this sport. To do this, though, he needed to go to a team that both maximizes his chances at winning championships AND maximizes his own abilities, to achieve amazing statistical accomplishments for many years. Sadly, Ohtani's chances of achieving the above, and being remembered as the greatest player to have ever played this sport, are probably less with us than it would have been with the Dodgers or teams in their tier.
  5. He is a unique talent, so he'd likely generate revenue regardless of ethnicity, but yes - there is a GIANT market in Japan that Ohtani captures, and that is what in turn leads to a lot of the merchandise/revenue/etc. The Dodgers are run by a financial corporation, so they likely aren't ones to "overbid" for a player based on emotion in the way that an individual owner would (Arte, Cohen, etc). This is likely all entirely financially-driven, and they likely will profit significantly off of this deal.
  6. I think you are right in that it'll be dragged out. With Snell, he'll probably wait until after Yamamoto is off the board, since Yamamoto has a distinct timeline, and he'll pit the losers of that battle against each other as the SP market dries up.
  7. Not particularly, no, but he could conceivably be mainly a DH who starts a handful of games in LF (i.e. like 15-20?) as needed to rotate some others through the DH spot to give them a day off. He can probably be hidden in LF for a chunk of the game, then replaced by a defensive replacement in the later innings under those circumstances. He's still a very good bat against RHH, and this team is going to need more lineup balance moving forward. He also likely won't require much of a commitment, either.
  8. Maybe, but I think this team needs some LHH. As it stands now, all we really have is Rengifo (who is a switch hitter), Moniak, and Schanuel. Maybe someone like Joc Peterson, who can DH but also play some LF, could be an option to fill that spot.
  9. Agreed, and I don't think anyone is really faulting him, and really, no one is faulting the FO for not matching that either. I think most of the frustration is just mainly directed at Arte and the team for not investing heavily in the team during the prime Trout/Ohtani years to get more out of that duo, and this signing is just the culmination of all those years of built-up frustration. The contract is a risk, but probably not nearly to the extent that people think. If Doc's friend's report is true, that the contract is more like a 52mil AAV deal given deferrals, then this is actually probably more of a low risk deal. Ohtani alone generates ~25mil per year or so of revenue for a team based on advertising/merch/etc, from what I read. It's probably fair to assume that number will further increase as a Dodger with a more global brand, but even if they don't, that means they need Ohtani to be "worth" 52 - 25 = 27mil AAV on the field, which given his unique talents, seems like it'd be incredibly easy to do. Given his current offensive production, he can do that now just as a hitter, not even factoring in his pitching.
  10. With Ohtani gone now, and given the declarations of the FO that they intend to compete and not rebuild - what moves do you make from here to cobble together a decent team? https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/angels Looking at the above, if you assume Arte will spend close to the threshold (no guarantees of that), that would mean we have ~65mil or so to spend in AAV this offseason, which is more than enough to secure a top SP, a top reliever, and some hitters to help mitigate the loss of Ohtani.
  11. Is your friend 100% certain on this? While I don't doubt this is something the Dodgers would try to do, that contract seems so egregious that it's almost tempting the MLB office to nix the deal, although the chances of that happening are zero. In the end, it is still 700 million, and 52mil AAV would still shatter all sorts of records anyway. Just somewhat mind-boggling to see an arrangement that skewed in deferments.
  12. For teams, they are likely looking if they can profit from a player's worth, not from their play on the field necessarily. Will the Dodgers get $700 million of worth from him as a player? Seems incredibly unlikely, but I'm sure they'll rake in tons of profit from him from a marketing perspective, likely far more than that $700 million, thus making him a worthwhile "investment," so to speak.
  13. Beyond the scope of my knowledge, but given that the Dodgers are run by a corporation (not an individual), I am guessing their finance and marketing team have determined that they can market Shohei and outearn the 70 mil per year salary. Teams run by corporations typically don't make emotional decisions, but rather financially-backed ones.
  14. Well, yes, but if I paid you 10,000 30 years from now .. that 10,000 will have considerably less buying power than it would if I gave you that money now. So you are correct in that it's a 70M average, but if most of that is paid 50 years from now, it is obviously worth considerably less than having that 70M today.
  15. Nope. The AAV will be considerably less if most of his contract is deferred. I am 100% certain on this. And that is what most reporters are referencing when they are saying there are contract deferrals with the intent to lesson the luxury tax burden.
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