Holy Hell, Trevor Bauer!

[Taylor]

27 minutes ago, Tank said:

Fwiw I offered to play golf with Bauer and promised that Mrs. Tank would bake cookies for him.

I probably should have checked the urban dictionary first to make sure that wasn’t code for something weird, gross, and sadistic.

Did you offer to buy him a youth jersey?

[T.G.]

2 hours ago, Tank said:

Fwiw I offered to play golf with Bauer and promised that Mrs. Tank would bake cookies for him.

I probably should have checked the urban dictionary first to make sure that wasn’t code for something weird, gross, and sadistic.

For the love of baseball, stay far, far away!

[T.G.]

2 hours ago, Taylor said:

I am the younger generation.

God help us.

[Tank]

2 hours ago, T.G. said:

For the love of baseball, stay far, far away!

[Tank]

3 hours ago, Taylor said:

Did you offer to buy him a youth jersey?

[CanadianHalo]

Welp. I’m all on the Bauer train! The more vlogs I watch of his the more I like him. I think a lot of the young guys in this rotation would really benefit from having someone so willing to teach like Bauer is. Glasnow reached out to Bauer for advice during the World Series.

[rafibomb]

6 minutes ago, CanadianHalo said:

Welp. I’m all on the Bauer train! The more vlogs I watch of his the more I like him. I think a lot of the young guys in this rotation would really benefit from having someone so willing to teach like Bauer is. Glasnow reached out to Bauer for advice during the World Series.

Canning would be a huge benefit from Bauer both coming from UCLA and also Canning has gotten a lot of Bauer comps so far in his career.

 

 

 

Edited December 5, 2020 by rafibomb

[Cosmo_Kramer]

I think Bauer would improve the entire pitching staff. He has knowledge to share, and Canning would likely benefit greatly.

[wopphil]

1 hour ago, Cosmo_Kramer said:

I think Bauer would improve the entire pitching staff. He has knowledge to share, and Canning would likely benefit greatly.

Not to mention all the innings he would spare the bullpen. 

[beatlesrule]

Bauer has not had an ace type career

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bauertr01.shtml

Even his projections for next year aren't ace material.

[CanadianHalo]

3 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

Bauer has not had an ace type career

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bauertr01.shtml

Even his projections for next year aren't ace material.

Did those projections take into account the fact Bauer increased his spin rate on all of pitches last season?

[tdawg87]

19 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

Bauer has not had an ace type career

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bauertr01.shtml

Even his projections for next year aren't ace material.

We don't need an "ace". We need better pitchers.

[beatlesrule]

2 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

We don't need an "ace". We need better pitchers.

I know that but he is being billed as an ace with a contract that only an ace deserves. I would love to have the Angels sign him but I could see Arte being hesitant to give him big money when he hasn't proved that he is worth it.

[Blarg]

22 minutes ago, CanadianHalo said:

Did those projections take into account the fact Bauer increased his spin rate on all of pitches last season?

Spin Rate is a meaningless Stat on its own. 

[tdawg87]

7 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

I know that but he is being billed as an ace with a contract that only an ace deserves. I would love to have the Angels sign him but I could see Arte being hesitant to give him big money when he hasn't proved that he is worth it.

I don't think he's going to get as much as some people are saying. 

@Dochalo compared him and his potential contract to Patrick Corbin and I think I agree with that. Corbin got 6/140 which is 23.3 million per. 

I could see Bauer getting something like 6/150 or 5/130. 

[Pancake Bear]

37 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I don't think he's going to get as much as some people are saying. 

@Dochalo compared him and his potential contract to Patrick Corbin and I think I agree with that. Corbin got 6/140 which is 23.3 million per. 

I could see Bauer getting something like 6/150 or 5/130. 

Corbin was never as good as Bauer has been two of the last three seasons, and even Bauer's average seasons in the rest of the last five years are as better than Corbin's average. He has not been as good as Strasburg was, but Stras was a year older and had durability concerns, so ordinarily I'd expect Bauer to be closer to be somewhere between the two. Corbin was 6/140, Strasburg 7/245. But that's ordinarily. 

The pandemic's effect on the market is difficult to predict at this point, though. I suspect the top guys will still get paid, although perhaps less than the shocking totals of last offseason. Basically, I wouldn't be surprised to see Bauer get 7 years. Possibly even as much as 210 given his second worst ERA in the last three seasons was .221 (although how much the short season benefitted his numbers is impossible to say).

My guess: 6/180.

[tdawg87]

21 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Corbin was never as good as Bauer has been two of the last three seasons, and even Bauer's average seasons in the rest of the last five years are as better than Corbin's average. He has not been as good as Strasburg was, but Stras was a year older and had durability concerns, so ordinarily I'd expect Bauer to be closer to be somewhere between the two. Corbin was 6/140, Strasburg 7/245. But that's ordinarily. 

The pandemic's effect on the market is difficult to predict at this point, though. I suspect the top guys will still get paid, although perhaps less than the shocking totals of last offseason. Basically, I wouldn't be surprised to see Bauer get 7 years. Possibly even as much as 210 given his second worst ERA in the last three seasons was .221 (although how much the short season benefitted his numbers is impossible to say).

My guess: 6/180.

Ehh, not really agreeing with your assessment of Corbin. Not sure what stats you're using but they're a lot closer talent wise than you think.

And I think using 2020 stats is a bit iffy. Just 11 starts for Bauer.

[Dtwncbad]

1 hour ago, beatlesrule said:

Bauer has not had an ace type career

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bauertr01.shtml

Even his projections for next year aren't ace material.

Getting hung up on the word “ace” is a waste of time.

Let’s simplify this into a yes of no question:

As an Angel fan, would you be fully satisfied and comfortable giving the ball to Bauer three times in a World Series?

If the answer is yes, then who cares if you can or cannot call him an “ace.”

I would be very satisfied and comfortable.

[AngelsLakersFan]

If I thought he was worth Garrett Cole money I wouldn’t expect the Angels to even consider signing him. He will get significantly less than Strasberg IMO.

[beatlesrule]

Bauer's ERA has mostly been in the 4's. His best WHOLE season came in 2018 and he only threw 175 innings. He's surpassed 200 only once in his career and that was in 2019. I really don't think he's all that. He could have figured it out sure but he's not proven himself as even a number 2. Again, for most of his career, you can count on a 4 something ERA.

[Pancake Bear]

11 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Ehh, not really agreeing with your assessment of Corbin. Not sure what stats you're using but they're a lot closer talent wise than you think.

And I think using 2020 stats is a bit iffy. Just 11 starts for Bauer.

I'm using ERA. Corbin never had anything close to Bauer's 2018. And while questioning 2020 numbers is legitimate due to the low number of innings, the reality is that Bauer's 2020 trounces anything Corbin's ever done. That said, his numbers are well below Cole or Strasburg's going into last offseason. I just don't see any reasonable argument that Bauer is going to be basically comparable in contract to Corbin. Maybe xFIP? ERA+? Either way, Bauer's last five years show a little less consistency and a lot more upside. I stand by the 6/180. If you think he's going for 6/150, unless the pandemic seriously effects prices (which is possible), I think you're going to be disappointed. Pitching always costs more than everyone expects. 

[Pancake Bear]

Here's another: Four years prior to FA (Corbin's fifth year was out due to injury).

Bauer 12.5 bWAR, 14.4 fWAR

Corbin 7.3 bWAR, 11.3 bWAR

Thats not a small difference. 

Strasburg (fwiw) 19.7 bWAR, 18 fWAR

Again - comfortably less than Strasburg, noticeably more than Corbin. 

[Warfarin]

I think ultimately he can command something between the range of a 5/135 to 6/150 deal - 25-27mil/yr.

If someone offers him a 6/180 deal, then kudos to them, but I wouldn't offer that to him.

[ScottT]

2 hours ago, beatlesrule said:

Bauer has not had an ace type career

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bauertr01.shtml

Even his projections for next year aren't ace material.

Yeah.

I think people are ignoring results to some degree. By people, I mean fans.  I guess because they love attention whores.

I'd be 37% if the Angels signed him. He should be better than average at least. Solid chance to be an all star. High probability of being the Angels best pitcher.

[Pancake Bear]

1 hour ago, ScottT said:

Yeah.

I think people are ignoring results to some degree. By people, I mean fans.  I guess because they love attention whores.

I'd be 37% if the Angels signed him. He should be better than average at least. Solid chance to be an all star. High probability of being the Angels best pitcher.

I'm not. Depending on how one defines an ace, I would not say he is one. Staff ace? Probably on a team without elite starting pitching. Generally, he's around a 2-3 for a few seasons with possible but unlikely 1 upside. That doesn't change how high the value of a pitcher of that level of value is. That's nothing new. Every year this board lowballs significantly what they imagine FA's will go for and every year they are hilariously wrong. Starting pitching costs a lot. Bauer might get less than 30 aav because of a down market, but if he does it won't be by much.