Official 2015-2016 Hot Stove Thread

[Turd Ferguson]

Weaver will be easily replaced by Tropeano. Wilson probably gets replaced by Skaggs. 

 

The only truly great FA starter available next offseason is Strasburg but the market for him is going to be so utterly ridiculous that the Angels probably won't be involved regardless.

 

So the Angels probably won't be spending a lot for 2017 anyway, since there's really not a whole lot worth spending on. Just arbitration contracts for their own guys and some smaller pieces.

 

I agree on Trope/Skaggs.

 

As for Strasburg--who knows. He's a SoCal boy. And, most importantly, his wife is from San Diego. Wouldn't surprise me if he wanted to get back closer to home and maybe left a little bit on the table to do so. Then again, he's a Boras client so fat chance of that.

 

So, yeah, this is the year to spend some $$ in free agency, especially with our 5-Year Window ™.

[bloodbrother]

Dan Connolly Verified account ‏@danconnollysun

Sources: The #Orioles are negotiating with, and have made an offer to, LH-hitting Korean outfielder Hyun-Soo Kim, 27.

 

 

Dan Connolly ‏@danconnollysun

Accdg to a source, the Orioles offer to Hyun-Soo Kim, is two years and likely in the $3-$4M ranger per year.

Edited December 15, 2015 by bloodbrother

[Blarg]

troll daddy's trying to sell us on FO's aren't using advanced stats like WAR. that's a.maz.ing

I certainly hope they aren't. WAR is a seriously flawed stat.

[Docwaukee]

I certainly hope they aren't. WAR is a seriously flawed stat.

I would consider the solitary use of your eyes, WAR, voodoo, experience, or any other method to be a stupid idea.  All the methods are flawed.   

[VariousCrap]

Dan Connolly Verified account ‏@danconnollysun

Sources: The #Orioles are negotiating with, and have made an offer to, LH-hitting Korean outfielder Hyun-Soo Kim, 27.

 

 

Dan Connolly ‏@danconnollysun

Accdg to a source, the Orioles offer to Hyun-Soo Kim, is two years and likely in the $3-$4M ranger per year.

 

 

Angels better get in on this.

[Blarg]

People on the board think their scanning of fangraphs and BBRef is the end all to stat research and WAR is the final answer. The front office sees far more than any of us are privy too so the thought that their plan is somehow shaped by a shorthand stat like WAR is silly.

Also, as far as the front office plan for left field, it may just be they haven't been able to find a value greater than just keeping their draft pick for the money being spent.

Edited December 15, 2015 by notti

[Troll Daddy]

Angels better get in on this.

There have been offers from multiple clubs reported.

[tdawg87]

I certainly hope they aren't. WAR is a seriously flawed stat.

 

Whoa Eric, I have never seen you play devil's advocate in a thread before. This is a shock.

[Vegas Halo Fan]

http://giphy.com/gifs/xTka02J6l6ntEdnmV2/html5

[Docwaukee]

Dan Connolly Verified account ‏@danconnollysun

Sources: The #Orioles are negotiating with, and have made an offer to, LH-hitting Korean outfielder Hyun-Soo Kim, 27.

 

 

Dan Connolly ‏@danconnollysun

Accdg to a source, the Orioles offer to Hyun-Soo Kim, is two years and likely in the $3-$4M ranger per year.

Korea is becoming AA/AAA.  But on top of it, the 'prospects' are spending 3 yrs more time in the 'minors' before being brought up and they cost what a 1st yr arb player does.  

 

Even if you haven't scouted the guy one time, what is the risk when you have ZERO in your farm system?  You pay guys out of college with less experience more.  

 

I was big believer in Kang last year.  

 

Watch a ****ing youtube video for shit's sake!!  They blew their international load on a player with less experience and probably less exposure.  

 

Get out on the front end of the kbo while a bunch of these guys are still cheap.  

 

Sorry for the rant, but this is exactly the type of player the Angels need to be in on when they are strapped for cash and have no other means for obtaining talent.  

[Blarg]

Let me explain further before the uprising begins.

The multi-year plans most franchises employ is not limited to the here and now of the off season. As many have complained there has been a short sided view and player acquisition has been with varied result, most for the bad recently.

But even with bad acquisitions there is a future plan and that is the coming draft board. They don't target players in may for the June draft, some they have ranked for years. And there is maybe a 20th pick that has been on their board waiting for a draft for some time. Maybe another sleeper pick like Trout that you certainly wouldn't give up for Upton or Gordon.

So before you start railing the front office about inaction, baseball is never inactive. But If they are working towards franchise solvency they can't continue to chase windmills every season in free agency.

Edited December 15, 2015 by notti

[Docwaukee]

People on the board think their scanning of fangraphs and BBRef is the end all to stat research and WAR is the final answer. The front office sees far more than any of us are privy too so the thought that their plan is somehow shaped by a shorthand stat like WAR is silly.

Also, as far as the front office plan for left field, it may just be they haven't been able to find a value greater than just keeping their draft pick for the money being spent.

anyone who understands advanced metrics is inclined to realize that there are proprietary resources available only to major league baseball clubs.  There isn't one person on this board who actually understands WAR and thinks it's the final answer to evaluating a player.  If they do, then they don't understand WAR or any other stat.  

[Docwaukee]

Let me explain further before the uprising begins.

The multi-year plans most franchises employ is not limited to the here and now of the off season. As many have complained there has been a short sided view and player acquisition has been with varied result, most for the bad recently.

But even with bad acquisitions there is a future plan and that is the coming draft board. They don't target players in may for the June draft, some they have ranked for years. And there is maybe a 20th pick that has been on their board waiting for a draft for some time. Maybe another sleeper pick like Trout that you certainly wouldn't give up for Upton or Gordon.

So before you start railing the front office about inaction, baseball is never inactive. But If they are working towards franchise solvency they can't continue to chase windmills every season in free agency.

it's even way more complicated than you are intimating.  There is a massive database of value assignments relative to on and off field metrics.  Things generally tangible and things not.  Then a monetary value is assigned and this is projected for several years in advance.  I am sure there are confidence intervals assigned etc.  The teams most recent hire is an expert in Bayesian probability.  

 

The thing that most people don't realize is that even the things that are difficult to quantify are assigned a value and made part of the algorithm for evaluation.  They don't just write 'strong work ethic' on a piece of paper.  Work ethic is graded.  Probably on a scale of 100 and it's incorporated into the total value for that player and assigned a % worth.  

 

As opposed to having an actual player in mind (even though they might), they have probably assigned a 5-10yr monetary value to having he 20th pick in the draft and assigned a probability.  

 

etc. etc.  

[zenmaster]

I wish we could all go back to the way we evaluated players when I was growing up in the 80s.

For hitters its Avg, HR, RBI (and SB for Henderson)

For pitchers its ERA, W-L, K

RBI baseball stats for NES is where it's at!

Edited December 15, 2015 by zenmaster

[Blarg]

it's even way more complicated than you are intimating. There is a massive database of value assignments relative to on and off field metrics. Things generally tangible and things not. Then a monetary value is assigned and this is projected for several years in advance. I am sure there are confidence intervals assigned etc. The teams most recent hire is an expert in Bayesian probability.

The thing that most people don't realize is that even the things that are difficult to quantify are assigned a value and made part of the algorithm for evaluation. They don't just write 'strong work ethic' on a piece of paper. Work ethic is graded. Probably on a scale of 100 and it's incorporated into the total value for that player and assigned a % worth.

As opposed to having an actual player in mind (even though they might), they have probably assigned a 5-10yr monetary value to having he 20th pick in the draft and assigned a probability.

etc. etc.

And so... How did they **** up and sign Hamilton!

:-)

[Docwaukee]

And so... How did they **** up and sign Hamilton!

:-)

because Arte went all 'Teddy KGB'.  

[nando714]

I wish we could all go back to the way we evaluated players when I was growing up in the 80s.

For hitters its Avg, HR, RBI (and SB for Henderson)

For pitchers its ERA, W-L, K

RBI baseball stats for NES is where it's at!

This

[gotbeer]

http://giphy.com/gifs/xTka02J6l6ntEdnmV2/html5

 

found a gif for you.  Although, might have to put a spoiler that it's the ending of SW:  Force Awakens.

 

[Hollyw00d]

I wish we could all go back to the way we evaluated players when I was growing up in the 80s.

For hitters its Avg, HR, RBI (and SB for Henderson)

For pitchers its ERA, W-L, K

RBI baseball stats for NES is where it's at!

Why? That's so boring.

Its like being blind and choosing a walking stick over that cool thing jordi laforge used to wear

[Hollyw00d]

I agree on Trope/Skaggs.

As for Strasburg--who knows. He's a SoCal boy. And, most importantly, his wife is from San Diego. Wouldn't surprise me if he wanted to get back closer to home and maybe left a little bit on the table to do so. Then again, he's a Boras client so fat chance of that.

So, yeah, this is the year to spend some $$ in free agency, especially with our 5-Year Window ™.

For position players, ya. The FA market for pitchers in 2018 is absolutely insane

[Angel Oracle]

Span is a 3 WAR player? News to me. Looks like he is more of a 1-2 WAR player.

Post-hip surgery, a definite question mark

[Troll Daddy]

Rangers re-sign Bobby Wilson. There's hope for Mathis.

[gotbeer]

Rangers re-sign Bobby Wilson. There's hope for Mathis.

 

Every ex Angels the Rangers sign becomes an Angel killer.

 

Every ex Ranger the Angels sign becomes an Angel killer.

[Docwaukee]

Every ex Angels the Rangers sign becomes an Angel killer.

 

Every ex Ranger the Angels sign becomes a Ranger again

ftfy

[nate]

ftfy

 

haha!  well done