The Official 2020-2021 Hot Stove Offseason Thread

[ukyah]

"negative social media presence." 

says who, you?

[beatlesrule]

Can someone please explain how the 5 million or so he would have to pay by going over the luxury is going to bankrupt Arte?

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

Can someone please explain how the 5 million or so he would have to pay by going over the luxury is going to bankrupt Arte?

For starters he has a budget, that budget has never been $200 million much less $215 million.  Also who says it will bankrupt him?  

[Stradling]

I could get financed for $100k car.  But I have just my company car and my wife drives our $40k F150.  Why?  Because I stay within budget so I can put more money away for retirement. 

[Lou]

17 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

Can someone please explain how the 5 million or so he would have to pay by going over the luxury is going to bankrupt Arte?

You don't run a business, do you?

[Stradling]

Just now, Lou said:

You don't run a business, do you?

You spelled checking account wrong.  

[beatlesrule]

I'm not a billionaire. I don't see how 5 million is that big of a deal. Especially when you'll likely win a lot more ball games getting you more revenue. People here act like going over the tax will bankrupt him.

I have a savings and checking account. 

[Cosmo_Kramer]

51 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

I'm not a billionaire. I don't see how 5 million is that big of a deal. Especially when you'll likely win a lot more ball games getting you more revenue. People here act like going over the tax will bankrupt him.

I have a savings and checking account. 

But how many shares of GME

[Junkballer]

2 hours ago, beatlesrule said:

Can someone please explain how the 5 million or so he would have to pay by going over the luxury is going to bankrupt Arte?

Maybe he is also concerned with the overall health of MLB and, after taking one foray into going over, has decided that all ownership should abide within what is essentially a voluntary salary cap.  Maybe he is promoting fiscal responsibility in the owners meetings and doesn't want to invalidate his stance with other owners.  Who knows, but I would never fault any owner for remaining under the tax threshold.

[tdawg87]

You'll notice almost no owner wants to pay the luxury tax. A few have, sure. But they are usually immediately trying to get under the threshold.

They can pay it. Doesn't mean they want to. And unlike a normal tax, they have a choice in the matter.

I do think at some point Arte may want to bite the bullet and pay it as there may not be any other option. But that's if none of the young guys pan out, which would be a disaster.

Edited January 31, 2021 by tdawg87

[T.G.]

If only Arte had invested in GameStop.

[Angels 1961]

One year deal on Cole Hamels, 2019 numbers were decent.

[eligrba]

7 hours ago, beatlesrule said:

Can someone please explain how the 5 million or so he would have to pay by going over the luxury is going to bankrupt Arte?

I'm not clear whether the Angel's budget is based on actual salaries or luxury tax salaries.

[Stradling]

7 hours ago, beatlesrule said:

I'm not a billionaire. I don't see how 5 million is that big of a deal. Especially when you'll likely win a lot more ball games getting you more revenue. People here act like going over the tax will bankrupt him.

I have a savings and checking account. 

Not a single person here acts like going over the threshold will bankrupt him. Arte has a budget, he very well could go over that budget.  But he usually doesn’t. 

[Inside Pitch]

10 hours ago, Lou said:

You don't run a business, do you?

The Oakland As do. 

They offered Semien 12.5 mil, 500k less than he made in 2020.  Even better the deal called for him to make 2.5 mil in 2021 with 10 mil deferred at a rate of 1 million per year payable over 10 years.  Shockingly Marcus Semien took the Blue Jays one year offer of 18 Mil instead.

8 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

You'll notice almost no owner wants to pay the luxury tax. A few have, sure. But they are usually immediately trying to get under the threshold.

They can pay it. Doesn't mean they want to. And unlike a normal tax, they have a choice in the matter.

I do think at some point Arte may want to bite the bullet and pay it as there may not be any other option. But that's if none of the young guys pan out, which would be a disaster.

The Yankees wanted to get under the cap so badly they willingly gave away Ottavino and threw in a prospect to their most hated division rivals.   Their desire to get under/reset the cap was so great they were willing to give the Red Sox a potential closer/mid season trade piece for "future considerations".

[Stradling]

5 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

The Oakland As do. 

They offered Semien 12.5 mil, 500k less than he made in 2020.  Even better the deal called for him to make 2.5 mil in 2021 with 10 mil deferred at a rate of 1 million per year payable over 10 years.  Shockingly Marcus Semien took the Blue Jays one year offer of 18 Mil instead.

The Yankees wanted to get under the cap so badly they willingly gave away Ottavino and threw in a prospect to their most hated division rivals.   Their desire to get under/reset the cap was so great they were willing to give the Red Sox a potential closer/mid season trade piece for "future considerations".

But have you considered narratives and fans feelings?

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

But have you considered narratives and fans feelings?

About as much as I've considered letting people out of the penalty box.   

[Chuck]

11 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

About as much as I've considered letting people out of the penalty box.   

That's not a penalty box. More like a Guantanamo Bay Detention Camp.

[Erstad Grit]

What about Rally Mo? 

 

[Warfarin]

With all the talk of "it's just a few million more, Arte can afford it" ..

To become a billionaire, as these owners have, it takes a certain mindset.  Spending extra amounts of money, or paying extra taxes willingly, is usually not part of that mindset.  It is hard for someone to go against their "wiring," so to speak, and do things differently, especially as more and more evidence exists in this sport that you can find considerably value as long as you employ a good GM.

[failos]

7 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

With all the talk of "it's just a few million more, Arte can afford it" ..

To become a billionaire, as these owners have, it takes a certain mindset.  Spending extra amounts of money, or paying extra taxes willingly, is usually not part of that mindset.  It is hard for someone to go against their "wiring," so to speak, and do things differently, especially as more and more evidence exists in this sport that you can find considerably value as long as you employ a good GM.

Josh Hamilton

[Warfarin]

28 minutes ago, failos said:

Josh Hamilton

The key part of what I said was - "especially as more and more evidence exists in this sport that you can find considerably value as long as you employ a good GM."

For a long time, Moreno has likely felt that the best approach is to sign/acquire a few stars / splashy players and surround them with whatever.

As time has gone on, and more and more FOs are pivoting towards value-based approaches, perhaps he has likely seen a better approach to be used moving forward.  I mean, all he has to do is look at his splashy signings to see how they have panned out - Pujols, Hamilton, Upton (albeit, he was a trade/extension, but still, a long-term contract), Wilson, etc.  Perhaps he is, finally, shifting towards a different view, and letting his FO make those kinds of decisions.  Who knows.

[Angels 1961]

22 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

The key part of what I said was - "especially as more and more evidence exists in this sport that you can find considerably value as long as you employ a good GM."

For a long time, Moreno has likely felt that the best approach is to sign/acquire a few stars / splashy players and surround them with whatever.

As time has gone on, and more and more FOs are pivoting towards value-based approaches, perhaps he has likely seen a better approach to be used moving forward.  I mean, all he has to do is look at his splashy signings to see how they have panned out - Pujols, Hamilton, Upton (albeit, he was a trade/extension, but still, a long-term contract), Wilson, etc.  Perhaps he is, finally, shifting towards a different view, and letting his FO make those kinds of decisions.  Who knows.

It's not how much money you make, it's how much your money makes for you. If you go over lux tax but have a winning team how much revenue does that bring in.

[Vlad27Trout27]

A few things to address/clear when i said that Perry will have money to spend next year.  

First of all, I considered everything, including rises and Arb and at the moment, i estimate our payroll for next year to be in the range of 120 mil-145 mil. 

In average this gives us about 50-60 mil to spend. 

Now the spending, when i first considered this topic, my plan/idea was that everything went well for us. 

1. Detmer's would replace Quintana's spot

2. Rodriguez will replace one of Bundy/Heaney/3rd starter

That takes 2 our of the 4 spots, which gives us: Canning, Detemer's, Rodriguez, and Barria as a four and if Othani can pitch a full healthy season that gives us 5 Starters. 

Leaving us with a need for a 6th starter. 

Where we could resign Bundy/Heaney. 

Personally, I don't see Bundy being worth anything over 20 mil. He not a power pitcher, i think he'll get an over around 15 mil.

Heaney around 10-12 mil

or we could go the free agency route and spend 20-25 mil on a veteran Ace's

Now the other two positions, SS and Closer.

Preferably i would like Perry to go after Rosenthal this year as for afforadable price and also a backup. 2yrs 12- 14 mil with an option for 3rd year. 

SS we'll see when it get there. 

So basically for this to work, we'll need Detmers and Rodriguez to be called up this season.

Yeah that's about all 

 

[AngelStew43]

I am becoming a fan of Seminaris as well.  Reminds me of Chuck Finley when he first came up.  Not afraid to challenge hitters.  

I am looking forward to seeing some of our young players when the Cactus League starts.