2018 Hot Stove League

[Docwaukee]

25 minutes ago, WeatherWonk said:

I wouldnt bet on that, with how poorly Schoop and Sano hit last year. Sano had a negative WAR and Schoop had that glossy OBP of .266. Gonzales has played some 2nd base. And who knows what kind of season Cron will have. 

Even Kepler and certainly Buxton aren't great hitters. Buxton is in danger of becoming a defensive replacement, unless he starts progressing as a hitter.

I doubt they are paying him 10+mil/season to not start.

he'll get plenty of starts and 500+ at bats but my guess is that will be in a util role.  I am sure we'll see him displacing Kepler vs. LHers.  But if the team is healthy, I doubt that he's in the opening day lineup.  

[Angel Oracle]

Gonzalez is a super util kind of guy, valuable at the plate and master of no position.

[JAHV76]

2 hours ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

The Angels were runners up as they were only offering a little league deal.

Hot dogs, chips and a soda at the snack bar

You forgot the Abba Zabba 

[Docwaukee]

4 minutes ago, JAHV76 said:

You forgot the Abba Zabba 

I'm going with the chili and cheese on fritos and a fun dip.  

[jordan]

2 hours ago, Second Base said:

Eppler hasn't explained why, but he is reasonably confident that Harvey can return to form. He didn't site anything specific, and you can go one of two ways with that. Either it's proprietary information and analysis that causes him to believe this, or there's really nothing to go on and he's just hoping. But given Eppler's track record with buying low on pitchers, I think he deserves the benefit of the doubt.

If there is one thing to worry about in my opinion, it's injury. Most of the guys that Billy has bought low on have all performed well, but have also gotten injured. Harvey and Cahill both have a history of injury. So if you had to wager on anything given a Eppler's evaluation history, I'd say it's likely that both Cahill and Harvey do pretty well in an Angels uniform, but will likely get injured

I think that's why I see the Angels going with a piggyback rotation for much of the second half. Cahill has proven to be outstanding in relief, and Harvey's velocity indicates he could perform on par with Eovaldi in a relief capacity as he did in October last year. With other guys like JC Ramirez and Alex Meyer getting healthy, as well as Griffin Canning and Suarez progressing into a major league role. Maybe something like 3 innings each, while offering hitters different looks. Cahill, Ramirez and Suarez would really mix it up.

Would be nice if Harvey can be our Charlie Morton. Though Harvey has had more success than Morton earlier in his career. But would still be nice. 

Edited February 22, 2019 by jordan

[floplag]

9 hours ago, Taylor said:

Now they're only 1.97 games behind us.

Yeah, no affect whatsoever...
https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/
spoiler alert, they have us now 3 games behind them. 

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

Yeah, no affect whatsoever...
https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/
spoiler alert, they have us now 3 games behind them. 

You're quoting two different sources with two vastly different systems..   

Your first post mentioned FG, now you're posting a link to Baseball Prospectus...    Pecota ALREADY had the Twins ahead of the Angels before the Gonzalez signing,...  also Pecota has the Cubs winning 79 games... 

 

[WeatherWonk]

9 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

You're quoting two different sources with two vastly different systems..   

Your first post mentioned FG, now you're posting a link to Baseball Prospectus...    Pecota ALREADY had the Twins ahead of the Angels before the Gonzalez signing,...  also Pecota has the Cubs winning 79 games... 

 

I could see the Cubs winning many fewer games this year. They really havent addressed their lack of offensive punch for long periods of the regular season. Lester and Hamels and Hendricks a year older, Who knows about Yu? About Morrow? 79 might be a little low, though, but maybe not by much. Brewers are about the same (strong), Cards are much better. Heck, Reds are improved, too. Pirates about the same or slightly worse.

Man, I cant believe any service would put us behind the Twins. That's depressing. I don't buy it. But it is a much weaker division than ours. Even the Indians are worse than last year.

The A's are the biggest question mark in our division, along with us. The Astros wont win it by 18 games, like Pecota predicts, but it will be handily, I suspect.

I'm really interested to see how Laureano and Martini do for a full season. Can they maintain those tremendous OBP numbers, especially Martini? Is Piscotty's resurgence for real? Deadly top of the lineup, in front of Chapman, Davis, Olson, Piscotty. The bullpen is still solid. Their season rests on whether Fiers, Estrada, Mengden and Blackburn can get them through till Puk and Cotton return, in some fashion. Sounds like Manaea and Gossett are longshots this year, but possible. I still expect a late acquisition, of another starter, by Beane. Someone who would be willing to accept a one year contract. Maybe Tillman or Bucholz or Shields.

Not sure of all their contracts, but the A's might be another team that will be much better in 2020, like us. Of course, with Beane, no one is safe from being traded, especially good players nearing FA status.

[Angel Oracle]

The Indians could win that putrid division in their sleep.

[Docwaukee]

26 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

You're quoting two different sources with two vastly different systems..   

Your first post mentioned FG, now you're posting a link to Baseball Prospectus...    Pecota ALREADY had the Twins ahead of the Angels before the Gonzalez signing,...  also Pecota has the Cubs winning 79 games... 

 

It'll give the Twins about a win.  maybe.  

BP also has the halos as the worst defensive team in baseball and ranks Simmons as a below avg. defender when every other metric has him as the best in baseball and the eye test supports that.  

I'm not going to get overly hung up on a difference of 1, 2, 3, 4 or even 5 wins between teams on various projection systems.  

[Stradling]

Also lets say Marwin is a 2.5 WAR player this year.  The Twins only win 2 more games if he replaces a guy that is a .5 WAR player.  If he replaces a 2 WAR player they are essentially the same team.  

[Angel Oracle]

30 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

It'll give the Twins about a win.  maybe.  

BP also has the halos as the worst defensive team in baseball and ranks Simmons as a below avg. defender when every other metric has him as the best in baseball and the eye test supports that.  

I'm not going to get overly hung up on a difference of 1, 2, 3, 4 or even 5 wins between teams on various projection systems.  

How can BP be taken seriously, when calling the Halos the worst defensive team?   A team with Simba, Trout, and Calhoun in the field?

[floplag]

12 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

You're quoting two different sources with two vastly different systems..   

Your first post mentioned FG, now you're posting a link to Baseball Prospectus...    Pecota ALREADY had the Twins ahead of the Angels before the Gonzalez signing,...  also Pecota has the Cubs winning 79 games... 

 

Yes i did, but does it matter?  You see clearly little difference either way regardless of source.  

Still though funny how every source that doesnt buck the popular narrative here is trash.   Thats not so much at you IP just a general statement from other read materials. 

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

Yes i did, but does it matter?  You see clearly little difference either way regardless of source.  

Still though funny how every source that doesnt buck the popular narrative here is trash.   Thats not so much at you IP just a general statement from other read materials. 

Honestly, in the grand scheme of things none of it matters because whatever system you prefer it's just an educated guess.   

In terms of the actual conversation, it matters because they are using different methodologies to reach their conclusion..  Not unlike someone using bWAR to make a guy look better by comparing those numbers to say fWAR -- the devil is in the details.    In the FG system they went from 82 wins to 83 since adding Gonzalez, so still behind the Angels...  Using PECOTA, the Twins were already ahead of the Angels, so nothing has really changed in either system -- one views the Angels marginally ahead the other has them slightly behind the Twins.

As far as one being trash or the other...   A lot of people believe that PECOTA has suffered in Nate Silver's absence, I agree they used to be much more accurate but we have also seen the game change in some pretty dramatic ways and I think the fluctuations may be the result of the lack of PEDs, advent of launch angles, and changes in bullpen usage more than any faults in their system. 

My personal opinion, take all of them -- ZIPS, Steamer, Pecota, Marcel, Clay Davenport, combine them and go with the median figure...   Doing it that way may be just accurate as any one system.

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

It'll give the Twins about a win.  maybe.  

BP also has the halos as the worst defensive team in baseball and ranks Simmons as a below avg. defender when every other metric has him as the best in baseball and the eye test supports that.  

I'm not going to get overly hung up on a difference of 1, 2, 3, 4 or even 5 wins between teams on various projection systems.  

Yeah, not sure what they are basing that defensive data on -- massive regression from Calhoun, continued decline from Upton?  Maybe they looked at Cozart's small sample at 3B and gave that a lot of credence -- it's definitely wonky but, defensive metrics are wonky by nature.   As far as the Twins go...  They added a 2.5 War player but the only way to get him those at bats is to sit one of their other 2.5 WAR players at the positions he plays, or see one of them fail and have him replace them.   I think some may be adding 2.5 WAR to the total but it doesnt work that way..  The Twins won't be getting an additional 500 at bats compared to the rest of the league -- they will, have the option of replacing poor at bats with better ones -- maybe.  Good signing for them IMO, but sort of a lateral move since he's not replacing a black hole and will go into next year without a clearly defined position.

3 hours ago, WeatherWonk said:

Man, I cant believe any service would put us behind the Twins. That's depressing. I don't buy it. But it is a much weaker division than ours. Even the Indians are worse than last year.

Twins offense has a ton of potential upside and possible break outs -- lots of guys in that age frame where big upticks in performance are commonplace.   Pitching wise both teams are full of question-marks - they are IMO very similar teams but as you point out -- they play in a much weaker division.   The one team in the Central that may push more than they are being given credit for is Detroit...  They could see a lot of their farm guys come up and surprise.

 

Edited February 23, 2019 by Inside Pitch

[Pancake Bear]

3 hours ago, Dochalo said:

It'll give the Twins about a win.  maybe.  

BP also has the halos as the worst defensive team in baseball and ranks Simmons as a below avg. defender when every other metric has him as the best in baseball and the eye test supports that.  

I'm not going to get overly hung up on a difference of 1, 2, 3, 4 or even 5 wins between teams on various projection systems.  

The heck? How in the world do they come up with that? Did their system rate his defense really poorly last season or something? Or is it age related (he’s not that old, though)?

[Docwaukee]

9 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

The heck? How in the world do they come up with that? Did their system rate his defense really poorly last season or something? Or is it age related (he’s not that old, though)?

yep.  they had him well below avg.  

[Stradling]

I mean, how is there an entity that grades Simmons as below average defensively?  I can’t imagine him being rated even at average.  It is tough to give any credence to BP if that is their conclusion.  

[Docwaukee]

20 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I mean, how is there an entity that grades Simmons as below average defensively?  I can’t imagine him being rated even at average.  It is tough to give any credence to BP if that is their conclusion.  

I actually emailed them about it and got the following response:

I'm not going to argue that all of the fielding metrics don't have blind spots. (Take a look at how DRS treats Rockies outfielders, e.g.) I would submit that FRAA, DRS, and UZR all get things right a lot more than they get it wrong, so I'm good with accepting what they have in aggregate, if not necessarily in every individual case.

[Pancake Bear]

5 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I actually emailed them about it and got the following response:

I'm not going to argue that all of the fielding metrics don't have blind spots. (Take a look at how DRS treats Rockies outfielders, e.g.) I would submit that FRAA, DRS, and UZR all get things right a lot more than they get it wrong, so I'm good with accepting what they have in aggregate, if not necessarily in every individual case.

Heh. That's reason enough to toss Pecota out as worthless. If your model is so bad that it completely disagrees with every other system (and the eye test, for that matter), it's junk. 

[WeatherWonk]

22 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

Heh. That's reason enough to toss Pecota out as worthless. If your model is so bad that it completely disagrees with every other system (and the eye test, for that matter), it's junk. 

I thought it was Baseball Prospectus. Pecota rated us below the Twins, before the Marwin signing.

Dude, you gotta stay on top of the sites that bag on the Angels. Time to rotate off these two and find the ones acceptable on Angels Win.

[WeatherWonk]

OMG. Cowart is back in the Angels fold. Possibly as a pitcher.

[Docwaukee]

26 minutes ago, WeatherWonk said:

I thought it was Baseball Prospectus. Pecota rated us below the Twins, before the Marwin signing.

Dude, you gotta stay on top of the sites that bag on the Angels. Time to rotate off these two and find the ones acceptable on Angels Win.

pecota is BP

[Lou]

7 hours ago, WeatherWonk said:

I thought it was Baseball Prospectus. Pecota rated us below the Twins, before the Marwin signing.

Dude, you gotta stay on top of the sites that bag on the Angels. Time to rotate off these two and find the ones acceptable on Angels Win.

 

6 hours ago, Dochalo said:

pecota is BP

 

 

[m0nkey]

 

These two clowns in a nutshell. Heyman has been tweeting the same stuff about Harper in different wording for months. 

[eligrba]

18 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I actually emailed them about it and got the following response:

I'm not going to argue that all of the fielding metrics don't have blind spots. (Take a look at how DRS treats Rockies outfielders, e.g.) I would submit that FRAA, DRS, and UZR all get things right a lot more than they get it wrong, so I'm good with accepting what they have in aggregate, if not necessarily in every individual case.

Translation:

"Are you going to believe me or your lying eyes."

 

Mark Twain was correct regarding the three types of lies:

1. Lies

2. Damned Lies

3. Statistics

 

Why would anyone (except for an east coast Axe-wearing Doritos smelling douche-bag) agree with such a claim.