Official 2021 Trade Deadline Discussion Thread

[halonatic13]

8 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Then sign him after next year and don't trade 2 assets for him unless you work out an extension ahead of time.

Yea becaue we have such good luck with signing free agent pitchers.

[jsnpritchett]

1 minute ago, halonatic13 said:

Yea becaue we have such good luck with signing free agent pitchers

So you think trading for him will increase the chance that he'll sign here?

I'm honestly not following the logic of some of these posts at all.

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

Its felt like Groundhog Day as an Angel for the last so many seasons.  The Angels don't address their pitching needs during FA, some fans say wait until the trade deadline there will be deals to make, deadline rolls around and then some of those same people say the price was too high after the Angels don't make a move and to wait until FA.  I'm glad the Angels went heavy or rather all in on pitchers in the draft and some of those guys very well could be with the big club next year but sooner rather than later the Angels need to take a risk via trade or FA that isn't a one year peanut.  If the Angels have the chance to acquire a guy like Berrios or another young proven pitcher then do it and make an offer that keeps him from hitting FA.   

[halonatic13]

12 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

So you think trading for him will increase the chance that he'll sign here?

I'm honestly not following the logic of some of these posts at all.

I'm speaking "in general" terms.  We just don't get the big arms to sign here in free agency.  If we can lock in an extension, I'd def do that deal.

 

[eligrba]

6 hours ago, Dochalo said:

first off, I'm backing away from my initial thought of moving expiring assets for pen help next year.  

we've actually done a shit ton of that and it hasn't worked because anyone close to the majors that you can acquire for an Ian Kinsler or someone like that (Jose Iglesias etc.), is going to have some major negatives attached.  No more Alex Meyers or Dillon Peters.  

Here's a fun aside btw.  Dillon Peters was acquired from Miami for Tyler Stevens.  A no name throw away 18th rounder for the halos in 2017.  He's in AA with a 2.42 era in 26ip with 31k.  I have no idea what he throws but he'd still be a relief asset.  Just like Isaac Mattson, Zach Peek, Kyle Bradish and Kyle Brnovich, and Garrett Stallings and Jean Pinto (throw in as part of the Jose Iglesias deal.  1.06 era with 25k, 4 walks in 17ip for the FCL orioles at age 20) .  And even Jam Jones.  Or how about Will Wilson.  None of those guys are likely stars.  But it's just part of the continued erosion of assets over time.  Every single one of which has gone into making the team better the following year instead of looking 2, 3, or even five years down the road.  Jerry masterfully dismantled the Angels farm system in this very fashion and doubled up on his efforts by replacing it with almost nothing.  Yet Eppler and now Minasian are following suit with the same way of doing this bullshit.  

Dylan Bundy had 'season' last year and help us to .433 winning %.  Jose Iglesias is gonna help us finish .500 this year.  As is Alex Cobb who is having a very good season.  With the two latter you have a chance to resupply that depth you took from.  Stupidly.  If you don't then what was the point of getting these guys?  So they can help make the team a little better but still mostly shitty? 

Another example.   Don't acquire Franklin Barreto for guys like La Stella.  Maybe that's all they could get, but take the best possible option even if the guy is in the DSL.  That's how you get Yordan Alvarez for Josh Fields.  The dude was probably some skinny punk who hit a combined 1 hr before getting traded.  It's how you get Fernando Tatis Jr. for James Shields.  Shields was 34 with an era over 4 in 2016.  The Pads ate half his contract to boot.  You think they're worried about that now?  

Use your expiring assets to acquire as much value for the future as you possibly can.  I don't care if the player is 17 or 27.  It doesn't have to be for a guy that can help next year.  Just get as much as you possibly can.  And for the love of god, stop trading to help the major league club unless it's actually going to make a damn difference.   The Angels are walking into 2022 without a bullpen.  Literally, 7 of the players currently in the pen are free agents at the end of the year.  Actually would have been easier to mention that they have two guys returning.  Mayers and Wantz.  

So how about you build something that seems mildly competitive first?  Then make that next level trade to finish it off.  Wouldn't it be nice to have all those assets back right now instead of seeing them in other orgs top 40 prospect lists?  That would certainly soften the blow a bit of making that important trade.  I'm so tired of watching this perpetual motion machine of .500 (or worse) baseball yet the wash rinse repeat of trying the same thing over and over and over with the same damn results.  So we can see us draft 20 pitchers to replenish the supply of those failed efforts.  

tldr - stop making stupid and/or worthless trades because you can't see past the next year.  

I agree and what you describe is a process important for rebuilding a farm system or creating a pipeline of viable prospects.  I don't see the Angels rebuilding like Dipoto did with the Mariners or see the Angels creating a viable pipeline either.  Both outcomes take patience.  The pressure of having Trout and now Ohtani on a team that can't even sniff a playoff game makes it difficult for a vision-less organization not to continue repeating the constant failures of previous GMs. 

[eligrba]

29 minutes ago, halonatic13 said:

Yea becaue we have such good luck with signing free agent pitchers.

The Angels have signed many free agent pitchers.  Unfortunately, they have mostly been garbage.

There is lots of reports that the Angels have tried but not successful for a variety of reasons, sometimes not relating to money.

[Taylor]

[totdprods]

8 hours ago, mmc said:

Wonder what Pablo Lopez would cost?

He’s an interesting one for sure.

[totdprods]

8 hours ago, Dochalo said:

first off, I'm backing away from my initial thought of moving expiring assets for pen help next year.  

we've actually done a shit ton of that and it hasn't worked because anyone close to the majors that you can acquire for an Ian Kinsler or someone like that (Jose Iglesias etc.), is going to have some major negatives attached.  No more Alex Meyers or Dillon Peters.  

Here's a fun aside btw.  Dillon Peters was acquired from Miami for Tyler Stevens.  A no name throw away 18th rounder for the halos in 2017.  He's in AA with a 2.42 era in 26ip with 31k.  I have no idea what he throws but he'd still be a relief asset.  Just like Isaac Mattson, Zach Peek, Kyle Bradish and Kyle Brnovich, and Garrett Stallings and Jean Pinto (throw in as part of the Jose Iglesias deal.  1.06 era with 25k, 4 walks in 17ip for the FCL orioles at age 20) .  And even Jam Jones.  Or how about Will Wilson.  None of those guys are likely stars.  But it's just part of the continued erosion of assets over time.  Every single one of which has gone into making the team better the following year instead of looking 2, 3, or even five years down the road.  Jerry masterfully dismantled the Angels farm system in this very fashion and doubled up on his efforts by replacing it with almost nothing.  Yet Eppler and now Minasian are following suit with the same way of doing this bullshit.  

Dylan Bundy had 'season' last year and help us to .433 winning %.  Jose Iglesias is gonna help us finish .500 this year.  As is Alex Cobb who is having a very good season.  With the two latter you have a chance to resupply that depth you took from.  Stupidly.  If you don't then what was the point of getting these guys?  So they can help make the team a little better but still mostly shitty? 

Another example.   Don't acquire Franklin Barreto for guys like La Stella.  Maybe that's all they could get, but take the best possible option even if the guy is in the DSL.  That's how you get Yordan Alvarez for Josh Fields.  The dude was probably some skinny punk who hit a combined 1 hr before getting traded.  It's how you get Fernando Tatis Jr. for James Shields.  Shields was 34 with an era over 4 in 2016.  The Pads ate half his contract to boot.  You think they're worried about that now?  

Use your expiring assets to acquire as much value for the future as you possibly can.  I don't care if the player is 17 or 27.  It doesn't have to be for a guy that can help next year.  Just get as much as you possibly can.  And for the love of god, stop trading to help the major league club unless it's actually going to make a damn difference.   The Angels are walking into 2022 without a bullpen.  Literally, 7 of the players currently in the pen are free agents at the end of the year.  Actually would have been easier to mention that they have two guys returning.  Mayers and Wantz.  

So how about you build something that seems mildly competitive first?  Then make that next level trade to finish it off.  Wouldn't it be nice to have all those assets back right now instead of seeing them in other orgs top 40 prospect lists?  That would certainly soften the blow a bit of making that important trade.  I'm so tired of watching this perpetual motion machine of .500 (or worse) baseball yet the wash rinse repeat of trying the same thing over and over and over with the same damn results.  So we can see us draft 20 pitchers to replenish the supply of those failed efforts.  

tldr - stop making stupid and/or worthless trades because you can't see past the next year.  

I really see two things right now…mind you, this is in part my response based on we’ve seen Arte and to a lesser degree Perry operate. 

The Angels have a pretty specific win-now period, and I’d say it’s 2021-2023. After that it’s hard to say what we’re getting out of Trout, Rendon, Ohtani. 

After that the future is pretty murky. Most of our talent is crazy, crazy young. They might move fast, but we’ve seen teams rush youth movements and it not click as needed - the White Sox, Padres, even the Astros recently. To expect this wave to arrive and help in 2023-2024 is pretty ambitious.

I am as much about methodically building a farm as anyone here, my writings reflect that, but the time is finite for this fabled Trout Window and it’s kinda now or never. They’re looking at maybe two or three chances of peak-Trout in the playoffs and who knows, this could be the only fully healthy season Ohtani does what he can do. They need to go for it. That doesn’t mean raze the farm or snag only rentals, but anyone who can help 2021 and even just 2022 should be atop the list. This is a perfect season to both buy and sell because we have youth we can promote (Detmers, Marsh, maybe Bachman) to fill some holes of guys we sell.

We’re all in a bit of a haze from the last decade and it’s causing some tunnel vision here at times. I’m not wowed by Perry yet I’m almost any way, but I’ll give him a chance that he can 1) buy strong now/this winter and 2) properly pivot/hard sell in 2022/2023 if this shit isn’t working in a way we haven’t seen during Arte’s time and maybe do a mass re-stock (like the Red Sox? Maybe? There’s a better example escaping me) around then as we start seeing the Arol Vera-types reach AAA. 

Edited July 19, 2021 by totdprods

[Angels_Make_Me_Drink]

1 hour ago, jsnpritchett said:

So you think trading for him will increase the chance that he'll sign here?

I'm honestly not following the logic of some of these posts at all.

Its not that hard to figure out. You get a feel for his desire to stay here long term before pulling the trigger on the trade. If the front office doesn't think he will sign long term then you don't give up two prospects for him. If they do think he will sign long term, then you pull the trigger. 

[jsnpritchett]

For those who are interested in Jose Berrios:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/07/twins-trade-rumors-jose-berrios.html

"The Twins have tried in the past to sign Berrios to a long-term deal, but he’s been vocal about wanting to advance the market for starting pitchers and now, 15 months from reaching free agency, sounds as though he’s far from inclined to take any sort of deal on an extension.

“[I will have been] waiting six years, almost seven, to get where every player wants to be — a free agent, able to maximize our value,” Berrios told Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune this weekend. “So it’s different now. We are in a good position, and we’ll see what the best deal is going to be.”

Berrios added that there haven’t been any extension talks but said he likes Minnesota and would be open should the Twins approach him with another extension scenario at some point. Putting together what would need to be a market-value extension before the July 30 trade deadline seems unlikely — particularly with the front office dedicating a good chunk of its time to exploring trades for rental players and also talking extension with center fielder Byron Buxton. Berrios, who has a 3.76 ERA with strong strikeout and walk rates over the past five seasons, surely took notice when Zack Wheeler inked a five-year, $118MM deal with the Phillies on the heels of a similar statistical track record (but with less durability)."

So basically sounds like he wants free agent market-value money to even seriously consider not going the free agency route (can't really fault him for taking that stance).

[totdprods]

Even if Berrios doesn’t want to sign…two shots at the playoffs with him in the rotation and a QO draft pick aren’t bad. Certainly worth entertaining something like Adell, Canning, and a SS prospect.

Use that QO pick for a college arm if needed and it wasn’t much different from dealing Adell for Manning or something similar, just a little difference in timeline and control, things that aren’t really that critical for a team that can spend like the Angels.

Edited July 19, 2021 by totdprods

[jsnpritchett]

5 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Even if Berrios doesn’t want to sign…two shots at the playoffs with him in the rotation and a QO draft pick aren’t bad. Certainly worth entertaining something like Adell, Canning, and a SS prospect.

Use that QO pick for a college arm if needed and it wasn’t much different from dealing Adell for Manning or something similar, just a little difference in timeline and control, things that aren’t really that critical for a team that can spend like the Angels.

Sorry, but that's WAY too much for the Angels to give up for him with no certainty beyond next year, at least in my opinion.  I understand that someone will likely give an equivalent amount or more--but I don't think it should be the Angels, given what a longshot a successful playoff run would be this year.

[Dtwncbad]

4 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

So you think trading for him will increase the chance that he'll sign here?

I'm honestly not following the logic of some of these posts at all.

Yes 100%.  You get an exclusive negotiating window for the rest of this year, the entire off-season and all of next year, with the benefit of the player experiencing what it is like to be here versus.

There is no question it dramatically increases your chances of making a longer term deal.

[jsnpritchett]

3 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Yes 100%.  You get an exclusive negotiating window for the rest of this year, the entire off-season and all of next year, with the benefit of the player experiencing what it is like to be here versus.

There is no question it dramatically increases your chances of making a longer term deal.

Please show me a lot of examples of this strategy working.

EDIT: ...especially when the player in question has basically already said:

Edited July 19, 2021 by jsnpritchett

[Dtwncbad]

Just now, jsnpritchett said:

Please show me a lot of examples of this strategy working.

Not going to do your homework for you.  How many players sign contract extensions before free agency?

Many.

[jsnpritchett]

Just now, Dtwncbad said:

Not going to do your homework for you.  How many players sign contract extensions before free agency?

Many.

You're the one saying that this strategy increases the likelihood of a player signing with the team that trades for them, not me. 

And, as I just said in the edit to my last post, Berrios has already made it pretty clear that he expects to get paid.  I think trading a ton of value for a very good (but in my opinion, not "great") pitcher for one year and a couple of months of control in the hopes that he'll sign with you beyond next year is a recipe for disaster.

[jsnpritchett]

Betts and Lindor are examples of guys who signed extensions after being traded, I guess.  And those are 2 of the biggest contracts ever--which Berrios won't get.  Any others that would be comparable to a Berrios-type guy?

[jsnpritchett]

Also, this MLB.com article says that Alex Cobb has a "10-team trade list," which I hadn't been aware of until now.  Assuming that's correct and not a NO-trade list, I wonder who the 10 teams are to which he'd accept a trade?

https://www.mlb.com/news/teams-players-who-could-impact-mlb-trade-deadline

"Under-the-radar option -- RHP Alex Cobb: Cobb is in the last year of his contract and has a 10-team trade list. Teams may be interested in acquiring Cobb due to him ranking in the top 10 percent in both barrel percentage and chase rate, per Baseball Savant."

[Dtwncbad]

4 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

You're the one saying that this strategy increases the likelihood of a player signing with the team that trades for them, not me. 

And, as I just said in the edit to my last post, Berrios has already made it pretty clear that he expects to get paid.  I think trading a ton of value for a very good (but in my opinion, not "great") pitcher for one year and a couple of months of control in the hopes that he'll sign with you beyond next year is a recipe for disaster.

My simple point is having over a year of EXCLUSIVE negotiating rights to a player you have interest in signing to a longer deal is “a better chance” than waiting until free agency and having zero days of exclusive negotiating.  That’s all.

And yes it sure seems like Berrios is committed to getting a big deal in free agency.   But the reality is he is probably going to listen carefully to an offer from somebody, provided it is a team that he would have considered signing with in free agency anyway.

[Angels 1961]

4 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

Betts and Lindor are examples of guys who signed extensions after being traded, I guess.  And those are 2 of the biggest contracts ever--which Berrios won't get.  Any others that would be comparable to a Berrios-type guy?

How is that Lindor contract looking today?

[jsnpritchett]

8 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

How is that Lindor contract looking today?

Not great--but I'm in no way suggesting it was a good one.  Those monster deals almost never work out from a financial OR performance standpoint.

[Dtwncbad]

9 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

How is that Lindor contract looking today?

Too early to judge.

[Angels 1961]

11 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Too early to judge.

It's a bad contract now and last 5 years will be a horrible contract.

[Dtwncbad]

59 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

It's a bad contract now and last 5 years will be a horrible contract.

We know.  Every contract is a bad contract to you.