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Where will Bauer sign?


Where will Bauer sign?  

65 members have voted

  1. 1. Which team do you think is most likely to sign Trevor Bauer?



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For the record, Bauer can sign without them going over the luxury tax. If they were at 164 real payroll before the Quintana signing, then they’d be at 172 post Quintana. Luxury tax payroll is about $5M less for salaried guys plus $18 in benefits and minor league salaries so call it 185. That gives them $25 before tax.

If he took a $25 AAV they might be able to squeeze in, but more likely they go over.

In terms of AAV payroll Pujols money goes away but so does 35 M in other starting salaries and so Minasian will be forced to pay at least 3 starters again and deal with Raises for, Fletcher, and Ohtani. So they may pay in 2022 as well. 
 

They need Bauer but can they afford him?

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I just don’t see a contract in the 2-5 year range. Bauer is 30, so either wants a 6+ year mega-contract or a one year deal for $35-40M to give it another shot next year, in case he isn’t offered what he would accept; my guess is that is something in the 6/$228 - 7/$245 - 8/$264 range.
 

A four year deal has him re-entering free agency at age 34, and thus likely to start seeing some decline.

Edited by Angelsjunky
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7 hours ago, Hubs said:

For the record, Bauer can sign without them going over the luxury tax. If they were at 164 real payroll before the Quintana signing, then they’d be at 172 post Quintana. Luxury tax payroll is about $5M less for salaried guys plus $18 in benefits and minor league salaries so call it 185. That gives them $25 before tax.

If he took a $25 AAV they might be able to squeeze in, but more likely they go over.

In terms of AAV payroll Pujols money goes away but so does 35 M in other starting salaries and so Minasian will be forced to pay at least 3 starters again and deal with Raises for, Fletcher, and Ohtani. So they may pay in 2022 as well. 
 

They need Bauer but can they afford him?

Problem with that is, Ohtani hasn't had his Arb hearing yet. That 25 mil cushion would then go down wouldn't it? I'm guessing Angels and Artie eats the tax for a year. 

 

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18 minutes ago, TheUPSman said:

Problem with that is, Ohtani hasn't had his Arb hearing yet. That 25 mil cushion would then go down wouldn't it? I'm guessing Angels and Artie eats the tax for a year. 

 

I have him figured in as part of my 12M group of club control and arbitration guys. 

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