Where will Bauer sign?

[DCAngelsFan]

19 hours ago, Pancake Bear said:

Calling it now. It'll be the Dodgers on a 4 year 40m aav with maybe a 5th year option.

Everyone else either won't spend or have full rotations. 

Wondering if the Dodgers interest is legit, or just Bauer's agent trying to stir the pot, and get someone (us?) to up their offer?  

I could see the Dodgers interest going up what with the Padres moves - especially if we were to suddenly drop from the bidding and reduce Bauer's leverage a bit.

But I have to think the Dodgers pitching depth would allow them to take a pass on Bauer and a painfully expensive and long-term deal.

The terms I'm hearing has me leaning towards moving on to plan B - trade for a starter like Gray (Castillo if he's obtainable) - even though the prospect cost will hurt a lot - sign Hand and maybe an OF'er like Joc.  

Not ideal, but I've spent too many seasons as an Angels fan waiting for some players' egregious contract to expire, and don't look forward to Bauer joining that club.  

[Angel Oracle]

It is sad that the most recent FA whose production at least approached his contract was Torii, signed THIRTEEN years ago!

Nibs was a maybe.

Edited January 21, 2021 by Angel Oracle

[Erstad Grit]

14 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

It is sad that the most recent FA whose production at least approached his contract was Torii, signed THIRTEEN years ago!

Nibs was a maybe.

Much lower scale  but Abreu was fantastic

[Angel Oracle]

24 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

Much lower scale  but Abreu was fantastic

Right, for 2009, and then after signing a new contract, struggled.

[Angels_Make_Me_Drink]

I think the Dodgers end up securing him. Just seems like such an obvious fit. 

[Pancake Bear]

I can't read the whole article since i don't have ESPN+, but this stuck out to me:

"Enter Trevor Bauer: "Allowing me to pitch every fourth game is priority No. 1. Unfortunately I can't accept less money for that because it affects future players and markets as a whole."

That tweet, from Bauer to a fan, is more than two years old. It wasn't the earliest incidence of him proclaiming his desire to become an every-fourth-day pitcher and it wasn't the last. "

From, https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/30735933

It's two years old, but I'm curious how much his perspective on this has changed, if at all. His recent video didn't see as dogmatic about the every fourth game thing, although he clearly still believes in the concept.

If that is still his top priority, it could explain why he still hasn't signed. Maybe teams willing to offer more are more rigid on not being open to that, and the teams that might be willing to experiment or at least dialogue are lowballing him or aren't contenders. 

Point is, it may not be as simple as he's waiting for higher offers or he's still deciding. 

On the other hand, if this was a deal-breaker, you'd think more teams would be leaking that they're out due to his eccentric demands. 

With Quintana signed, I find it harder to believe there's a fit here for an every fourth day pitcher. Whereas if Barria is your fifth guy, it might be more likely. Also, this seems like the kind of thing that might annoy someone like Arte. 

[BTH]

The biggest problem with having Bauer pitch every 4 days is that you just don't know how that impacts his health.

He claims that his own data and measurements say it would work and actually be beneficial, but we don't really know until someone does it. And it's gonna be hard for a team committing $100M+ to let him experiment with that.

[angelsnationtalk]

24 minutes ago, Trendon said:

The biggest problem with having Bauer pitch every 4 days is that you just don't know how that impacts his health.

He claims that his own data and measurements say it would work and actually be beneficial, but we don't really know until someone does it. And it's gonna be hard for a team committing $100M+ to let him experiment with that.

The Angels pitching every 5th and 6th day hasn't made them any healthier so it's not like it would be worse

[Taylor]

Let's pitch him every 1st game.

[Revad]

6 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

It is sad that the most recent FA whose production at least approached his contract was Torii, signed THIRTEEN years ago!

Nibs was a maybe.

But we are talking about pitching right

[Angels in 2030]

anywhere but Anaheim.  I'll be absolutely shocked and blown away if he ends up signing with the Angels -- happily so.  But my uninformed opinion is near zero chance.

[Duren, Duren]

Geez, pitching every fourth day was the norm for decades. And training, medical options, nutrition were so much more primitive. As well, players are generally much more educated about care for the body since they were kids.

The stress of pitching on the body isn't worse now than then. Actually the fear of four day starts is more about a mindset created by analytics and strategy. 

Some brave manager/organization need to go against the conventional robotic trend and trust specific pitchers to know their own bodies and limitations. 

 

[Inside Pitch]

2 hours ago, Duren, Duren said:

Geez, pitching every fourth day was the norm for decades. And training, medical options, nutrition were so much more primitive. As well, players are generally much more educated about care for the body since they were kids.

And with obvious exceptions careers were typically shorter -- whether that was due to usage or poor training is up for debate but careers ended sooner.  Usage was also very different than it is today and varied from team to team.  There were teams that had three main SPs and a few more guys they would start sporadically.  Managers used to save guys to face certain teams.  The other thing people forget is that travel was different, those four man rotations didnt always pitch every four days because there were more days off due to travel and spot starters tended to be used for those double headers after a travel day off.

One thing that really stuck out is that guys who topped 200 innings in a single season before age 25 had a much higher tendency to break down or fall off dramatically at an early age than those who built their workloads over time.  You gotta figure with all the data they have now that they would be better able to gauge what the sweet spot for usage .vs age is....  I wonder if with so much of the focus being about limiting how many times guys go through the order they just haven't bothered trying to find that sweet spot... 

There are a lot of reasons why teams shifted to 5 man rotations, it wouldn't surprise me to see teams slowly shift towards 6 mans in the future.

Mickey Lolich was a freaking beast.... 

[Taylor]

[Lazorko Saves]

Think about the world we would live in today if Dr. Jobe never came up with ligament replacement.  We'd have 100s of pitchers who would have been done playing in their 20s, heck even a lot of 'em in their teens.  Guys like deGrom would have been done at age 22, Heaney at 27, Lackey at 32, Lynn at 28, etc.

Were there that many pitchers in the 1960s, 1970s who never saw the mound again?

If not, what does all this careful treatment of pitch counts, total innings, days rest get us?

I'd love to see some team say to Bauer, okay, $5m base salary guaranteed for 6 years, that's it.  *But*, incentives for IP each year that could take you up to the $35m (even $40m+) range if you actually throw as many innings as you think you can starting every four days.  You take the injury risk, but we give you the upside of being the highest paid player in the game if you're right.

Yeah, I know.  No chance, the player union would throw a fit at that, but I can dream.

Edited January 22, 2021 by Lazorko Saves

[rafibomb]

 

 

[Angels in 2030]

Less than zero?

[Pancake Bear]

16 minutes ago, rafibomb said:

 

 

Frankly, I don't think anybody knows anything. Angels and Bauer's camp are keeping a close lid on things. If there is interest, neither side is talking. 

[UndertheHalo]

This year more than ever these talking heads are all fucking worthless.  

[Angel Oracle]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

And with obvious exceptions careers were typically shorter -- whether that was due to usage or poor training is up for debate but careers ended sooner.  Usage was also very different than it is today and varied from team to team.  There were teams that had three main SPs and a few more guys they would start sporadically.  Managers used to save guys to face certain teams.  The other thing people forget is that travel was different, those four man rotations didnt always pitch every four days because there were more days off due to travel and spot starters tended to be used for those double headers after a travel day off.

One thing that really stuck out is that guys who topped 200 innings in a single season before age 25 had a much higher tendency to break down or fall off dramatically at an early age than those who built their workloads over time.  You gotta figure with all the data they have now that they would be better able to gauge what the sweet spot for usage .vs age is....  I wonder if with so much of the focus being about limiting how many times guys go through the order they just haven't bothered trying to find that sweet spot... 

There are a lot of reasons why teams shifted to 5 man rotations, it wouldn't surprise me to see teams slowly shift towards 6 mans in the future.

Mickey Lolich was a freaking beast.... 

376 innings one year pitched by Lolich, including 29 CGs, the most innings in MLB over the past 100 years?

Edited January 22, 2021 by Angel Oracle

[jsnpritchett]

6 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

376 innings one year, the most in MLB over the past 100 years?

Wilbur Wood threw 376 2/3 IP the very next year, oddly enough.

[T.G.]

Guys are actually looking at 2 year told tweets for clues?  LOL.

[Inside Pitch]

24 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

376 innings one year pitched by Lolich, including 29 CGs, the most innings in MLB over the past 100 years?

Crazy right?  But those workloads in 71 and 72 seemed to take a heavy toll on him.  Still, absolutely nuts to think he threw 60+ more innings in one season than Blake Snell has thrown in his two biggest workout seasons combined.  

25 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Wilbur Wood threw 376 2/3 IP the very next year, oddly enough.

You beat me to it...  Wood threw almost 1400 innings in four seasons, an average of 348 per....  then for shits and giggles 291 innings the fifth year.

His career was a trip, only threw more than 122 MLB innings in a season ONCE before age 28 (but a shit ton in the minors), then no less than 290 those 5 years....  Unfortunately he was toast after that

[Docwaukee]

4 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Crazy right?  But those workloads in 71 and 72 seemed to take a heavy toll on him.  Still, absolutely nuts to think he threw 60+ more innings in one season than Blake Snell has thrown in his two biggest workout seasons combined.  

You beat me to it...  Wood threw almost 1400 innings in four seasons, an average of 348 per....  then for shits and giggles 291 innings the fifth year.

His career was a trip, only threw more than 122 MLB innings in a season ONCE before age 28 (but a shit ton in the minors), then no less than 290 those 5 years....  Unfortunately he was toast after that

dude tossed up 1.91 era in 1971 and finished 3rd in CYA voting.  Damn.  The game has changed.  

[Lou]

Being a knuckleball pitcher undoubtedly helped Wood rack up the innings.