How the Mighty Have Fallen

[Angelsjunky]

Interesting how quickly things can change. Two years ago, the top four players according to fWAR were Alex Bregman, Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, and Cody Bellinger. I'll add two more names: Anthony Rendon at 7th and Mookie Betts at 9th.

Now look at how those six are doing this year, ranked by fWAR among players with 50+ PA:

25. Betts: .253/.371/.471, 136 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR

33. Trout: .333/.466/.624, 193 wRC+, 2.3 fWAR 

102. Bregman: .275/.359/.428, 120 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR

134. Yelich: .253/.409/.404, 127 wRC+, 0.9 fWAR 

206. Bellinger: .224/.348/.382, 108 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR

223. Rendon: .230/.313/.360, 87 wRC+, 0.4 fWAR

Betts is having a solid year, and not far from his typical season (2018 clearly looking to be an outlier). His numbers are slowly creeping up, and chances are he finishes around 6 WAR, but if I'm the Dodgers I'm wondering if a 12-year contract was such a great idea. Trout has been injured, but was his usual great self. But the others...all have fallen through the roof. 

Meanwhile, a new group of "young gods" have risen up to replace the "titans." The Three Juniors--Vlad, Tatis, and Acuna--are in the top 4 (along with a resurgent/healthy Carlos Correa) and--along with Juan Soto (who has underperformed this year) and new pup Wander Franco--considered to be the future top players in the game, a future which has already arrived.

What is striking is how quickly this has changed. This is not to say that some or all of the above players won't bounce back, but it also seems that a sea change is occurring, a youth movement, if you will. Even if those guys bounce back, they will find the top to be a more crowded place, and most of them have likely been surpassed already by the top young players.

It isn't like it is only this year. Bregman, Yelich, Bellinger, and Trout all had down years (relatively speaking) in 2020, but it was easy to write that off as the result of the unusual nature of that season. But now I'm not so sure. Trout's ability is still there, and for a while it looked like he had actually improved, but then he slumped mightily and was injured, so at the very least, even if he remains the best player in the sport for another few years, it will be with the phantom of an injury-prone label. 

I don't know what is up with the other three. It could be that Bregman was greatly benefited in 2018-19 by the Astros nefarious approach, and has simply dropped down to his true talent level. But Yelich and Bellinger? The latter has been injured most of the year, but both seem like shadows of their 2019 selves.

The times they are a-changin, or just off-years coinciding, or maybe somewhere in between?

[Jason]

Rendon is embarrassing 

[Dtwncbad]

I’m still not worried about Rendon.  I still think he will have multiple top 5ish MVP types seasons for the Angels.

[rageous]

Rendon is having a worse hitting year than Pujols ever had in his time as an Angels.

 

[Jason]

6 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I’m still not worried about Rendon.  I still think he will have multiple top 5ish MVP types seasons for the Angels.

I like your optimism but I think he's going to be above average but nothing spectacular. I do not think he'll come close to his 2019 season again and will not live up to his contract. He won't be Pujols bad but I think most Angel fans are going to be disappointed overall with him.  

[Dtwncbad]

6 minutes ago, Jason said:

I like your optimism but I think he's going to be above average but nothing spectacular. I do not think he'll come close to his 2019 season again and will not live up to his contract. He won't be Pujols bad but I think most Angel fans are going to be disappointed overall with him.  

Yeah maybe.  I am not really going to be disappointed unless he just sucks.   I don’t think he has to be that MVPish level for it to be a good signing.  If he can just stay healthy and play, then the Angels have no problem with 3B, and they have a guy I am comfortable with in the batters box with the game on the line.

For the most part, that has not been the case for 3B on the Angels for way too many seasons.

 

[Angelsjunky]

18 minutes ago, rageous said:

Rendon is having a worse hitting year than Pujols ever had in his time as an Angels.

 

That is incorrect. Pujols had a 77 wRC+ in both 2017 and 2020. Rendon's at 87. Still, nothing to be proud of - he's been well below average.

Anyhow, I'm not worried about Rendon. He may never be as good as he was in 2017-20 (6-7 WAR per year), but I think he'll have at least a few more in the 4-6 WAR range. I could see something like .280/.370/.480, 25 HR, 130 wRC+, 5 WAR next year.

[Angelsjunky]

The last decade has distorted Angels fans in a few ways:

One, we think anyone who isn't as good as Trout sucks.

Two, we think anyone who struggles will become Pujols.

Three, we assume that every homegrown pitcher will get injured and/or suck.

It is understandable, but I think a bit off. Pujols collapse from one of the greatest players in baseball history in his first decade, to a garden variety slugger for half a decade and then one of the worst regulars in the game for another half decade, is almost unprecedented - or at least, very rare. I don't see that happening with Rendon.

More likely, he'll bounce back next year, but at a somewhat lower plateau than his peak, and then slowly decline over the course of his career, perhaps with frequent injuries.

[Revad]

The game is getting younger, perhaps due to finances.  The new CBA will be fascinating.

[JustATroutFan]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Interesting how quickly things can change. Two years ago, the top four players according to fWAR were Alex Bregman, Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, and Cody Bellinger. I'll add two more names: Anthony Rendon at 7th and Mookie Betts at 9th.

Now look at how those six are doing this year, ranked by fWAR among players with 50+ PA:

25. Betts: .253/.371/.471, 136 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR

33. Trout: .333/.466/.624, 193 wRC+, 2.3 fWAR 

102. Bregman: .275/.359/.428, 120 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR

134. Yelich: .253/.409/.404, 127 wRC+, 0.9 fWAR 

206. Bellinger: .224/.348/.382, 108 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR

223. Rendon: .230/.313/.360, 87 wRC+, 0.4 fWAR

Betts is having a solid year, and not far from his typical season (2018 clearly looking to be an outlier). His numbers are slowly creeping up, and chances are he finishes around 6 WAR, but if I'm the Dodgers I'm wondering if a 12-year contract was such a great idea. Trout has been injured, but was his usual great self. But the others...all have fallen through the roof. 

Meanwhile, a new group of "young gods" have risen up to replace the "titans." The Three Juniors--Vlad, Tatis, and Acuna--are in the top 4 (along with a resurgent/healthy Carlos Correa) and--along with Juan Soto (who has underperformed this year) and new pup Wander Franco--considered to be the future top players in the game, a future which has already arrived.

What is striking is how quickly this has changed. This is not to say that some or all of the above players won't bounce back, but it also seems that a sea change is occurring, a youth movement, if you will. Even if those guys bounce back, they will find the top to be a more crowded place, and most of them have likely been surpassed already by the top young players.

It isn't like it is only this year. Bregman, Yelich, Bellinger, and Trout all had down years (relatively speaking) in 2020, but it was easy to write that off as the result of the unusual nature of that season. But now I'm not so sure. Trout's ability is still there, and for a while it looked like he had actually improved, but then he slumped mightily and was injured, so at the very least, even if he remains the best player in the sport for another few years, it will be with the phantom of an injury-prone label. 

I don't know what is up with the other three. It could be that Bregman was greatly benefited in 2018-19 by the Astros nefarious approach, and has simply dropped down to his true talent level. But Yelich and Bellinger? The latter has been injured most of the year, but both seem like shadows of their 2019 selves.

The times they are a-changin, or just off-years coinciding, or maybe somewhere in between?

Betts and Bellinger, the two so-called Trout challengers for the crown of best player in all of baseball, both living off one fluky season at the plate. This is what makes Trout's so great, he puts up elite seasons at the plate every single season. Someone will have one fluky season like them and someone will get caught up in the moment and think they're all of a sudden on Trout's level. Trout is the Jordan of MLB. He's on a level all by himself. Not just that but like Jordan, Trout helped changed his sport. Trout's greatness helped changed the way people value a player's overall performance. That can be put in three words: Wins Above Replacement. Trout made Wins Above Replacement famous and if it weren't for him, I doubt guys like Alex Gordon and Jason Heyward would have got superstar money. And neither of those two guys were every superstar players. And teams know what position a player is best suited on defense just looking at defensive WAR. An example would be Machado, who is an excellent defensive third basemen but not so much as a defensive shortstop just looking at his defensive WAR. 

[stormngt]

Nice looking at Trouts numbers as in decline when he hasn't played due to an injury for a month.   Prior to that his numbers were among the best starts of his career.  

I guess we could say Trout is injury prone.  However injuries happen in sports and up until this year Trout has been top 5 in MVP voting every year.  

[Blarg]

Using WAR, which is a counting Stat like RBI, is no indication of a player declining if injury is the cause for lost playing time. Trout missing significant time isn't a good thing but his production when healthy doesn't seem to have dropped off at all. The key is keeping him on the field. 

[stormngt]

4 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Using WAR, which is a counting Stat like RBI, is no indication of a player declining if injury is the cause for lost playing time. Trout missing significant time isn't a good thing but his production when healthy doesn't seem to have dropped off at all. The key is keeping him on the field. 

That's what I was trying to say in my post.  You did a much better job.

[Angels Fan Forever]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

nteresting how quickly things can change. Two years ago, the top four players according to fWAR were Alex Bregman, Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, and Cody Bellinger. I'll add two more names: Anthony Rendon at 7th and Mookie Betts at 9th.

 

Injuries, Right?

We're only in June and all these guys have been injured so using WAR is skewed.

About 80 games in and Betts has played the most games of the group at 67.

The others - 22,36,46,53,59

[angelsnationtalk]

I'd take Trout off this list. He was on a good pace as always until his injury....

But yes, the last 2 years have been quite strange in terms on stats. 

[Chuck]

8 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

I'd take Trout off this list. He was on a good pace as always until his injury....

But yes, the last 2 years have been quite strange in terms on stats. 

I agree with you and @Blarg on this one regarding Mike Trout being removed. That's not really fair IMO.

I think maybe as an asterisk *Missed time due to injury

[Lou]

Trout has played more than Bellinger this year.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

Meh, it's baseball. Players have up and down years. debilitating injuries, nagging injuries, personal issues, missing games, Coaching Rest thought process, FO playing M.O.'s etc. 

Young guys come up all the time and do outstanding. That's the exciting part of the game

I am always more interested in the transition between the AL & NL Players. As the leagues are different, the game is different, pitching philosophy is different, ballparks are different, Game Times, Time Changes and rest etc. How many players do well in the NL and move to the AL either via trade or Free Agency and have the same success? Is it the aging side of the athlete and the game? Or, is it the $$$$? Maybe, Guess type/Location hitters are just more streaky and can be easily manipulated? Or, cheating of signs is more rampant than we thought?

I believe there are more aspects than just this dude is doing well and then drops off a cliff... 

[Angels 1961]

Rendon another 5 years after this year at 38 mill. These type of contracts you cannot trade are bad. I just hope this off season we do not sign a pitcher over 100 to 200 mill.

[rottiesworld]

The problem with Anthony Rendon is staying healthy. He is injured and comes back and when it seems he is starting to turn it around, he gets hurt again. He needs to stay healthy and be in the lineup or he will never get his act together as it will take time to get his timing  and hitting together.

[tomsred]

9 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

Rendon another 5 years after this year at 38 mill. These type of contracts you cannot trade are bad. I just hope this off season we do not sign a pitcher over 100 to 200 mill.

Then where and when will will get an #1, other than Ohtani?  We certainly haven't been able to draft and develop one to this point.

[ten ocho recon scout]

Ive mentioned before about Betts, and Ill say it again. Hes a stud. Would love to have him. But hes overrated. 

And like AJ said, the dodgers are likely not going to do great on that deal.

[Angel Oracle]

Rendon does have a .760 OPS in June.

Baby steps

[ten ocho recon scout]

6 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Rendon does have a .760 OPS in June.

Baby steps

Im in the not worried camp.

I dont expect his peak Nats years. And i wasnt in anyway stoked when we signed him. In fact i was letdown, big time, that it wasnt cole

But he'll be fine. Hes been hurt all year. I think some people dont realize how even minor injuries effect you in sports. Timing being a huge one. 

Like all FAs, he wont be worth it. But we solved 3B for a long time.

[Taylor]

9 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Rendon does have a .760 OPS in June.

Baby steps

1.061 road OPS.