How the Mighty Have Fallen

[Angelsjunky]

4 hours ago, JustATroutFan said:

Betts and Bellinger, the two so-called Trout challengers for the crown of best player in all of baseball, both living off one fluky season at the plate. This is what makes Trout's so great, he puts up elite seasons at the plate every single season. Someone will have one fluky season like them and someone will get caught up in the moment and think they're all of a sudden on Trout's level. Trout is the Jordan of MLB. He's on a level all by himself. Not just that but like Jordan, Trout helped changed his sport. Trout's greatness helped changed the way people value a player's overall performance. That can be put in three words: Wins Above Replacement. Trout made Wins Above Replacement famous and if it weren't for him, I doubt guys like Alex Gordon and Jason Heyward would have got superstar money. And neither of those two guys were every superstar players. And teams know what position a player is best suited on defense just looking at defensive WAR. An example would be Machado, who is an excellent defensive third basemen but not so much as a defensive shortstop just looking at his defensive WAR. 

Good points, although I think you undersell Betts a bit. Sure, he only had one "Troutian" season, but he's had a bunch of other great ones. Trout is one of the rare players whose default mode is 9 WAR; Betts has averaged 7.6 WAR over 162 games for his career, which I think is at least borderline top 10 of all time. After he declines a bit, he could still be top 30, which is pretty damn great.

But yeah, Trout is on another level. As great as the Three Juniors and Soto are, and how great I think Franco will be, I don't see them having a ten-year span in which they averaged over 9 WAR per season. Only a few players have done that in baseball history.

[Angelsjunky]

3 hours ago, stormngt said:

Nice looking at Trouts numbers as in decline when he hasn't played due to an injury for a month.   Prior to that his numbers were among the best starts of his career.  

I guess we could say Trout is injury prone.  However injuries happen in sports and up until this year Trout has been top 5 in MVP voting every year.  

I'm not saying he's in decline--and this isn't a list of formerly great players in decline. It is a list of the best players of 2019 who are doing--for whatever reason--far worse in 2021, and thus Trout is part of the discussion.

It may be that being injury prone is the first level of Trout's decline. I could see him remaining in peak form for another three or four years, but frequently missing 20+ games a season, due to various ailments. I mean, that has been the case for three out of the last four full seasons.

If Trout can stay healthy enough to play 130+ games, I think he'll be an MVP candidate for the next five or so years, plus or minus. But the trick for him will be staying healthy.

[JustATroutFan]

14 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Good points, although I think you undersell Betts a bit. Sure, he only had one "Troutian" season, but he's had a bunch of other great ones. Trout is one of the rare players whose default mode is 9 WAR; Betts has averaged 7.6 WAR over 162 games for his career, which I think is at least borderline top 10 of all time. After he declines a bit, he could still be top 30, which is pretty damn great.

But yeah, Trout is on another level. As great as the Three Juniors and Soto are, and how great I think Franco will be, I don't see them having a ten-year span in which they averaged over 9 WAR per season. Only a few players have done that in baseball history.

I doubt Betts would have finished in second place to Trout in the 2016 AL MVP voting if Trout didn't make Wins Above Replacement famous in 2012. I could see someone like steroids Ortiz or even Donaldson finishing ahead of Betts in 2016 if Trout never burst onto the scenes in 2012 because that was the first season where Wins Above Replacement was gaining its recognition. It's likely that Trout would have won the 2012 AL MVP if people had value WAR the same way as they do now. So back to Betts. To me, not counting 2020 (60-game season), the only season where I for sure can say that he was an elite hitter was in 2018, and even that season should have some controversy with Cora as his manager, Doubt Betts would have gotten that contract that the Dodgers handed out to him if WAR never existed. Same for Lindor. Like I already stated, guys like Gordon and Heyward only got paid superstar money because of WAR (especially defensive WAR), which was made famous by Trout. And yes, Trout DID indeed changed the game of baseball because his performance in 2012 changed the way people value a player's performance. You see guys like Machado playing third base currently rather than shortstop because defensive WAR says he is an excellent defensive third basemen but not a good defensive shortstop. The same thing happened to Trout (funny) in 2014. The Angels moved him back to center because defensive WAR stated that he wasn't on his game in left while at the same time, it showed that he was excellent defensively in 2012. The examples that I just provided about players playing the positions that best suited for them was only made possible because of Trout changing the game. I think Trout should get more attention for changing the game than he is getting. Playing good defense is such an important factor in winning games, and that means putting guys in the right place to succeed. 

[Angelsjunky]

2 minutes ago, JustATroutFan said:

I doubt Betts would have finished in second place to Trout in the 2016 AL MVP voting if Trout didn't make Wins Above Replacement famous in 2012. I could see someone like steroids Ortiz or even Donaldson finishing ahead of Betts in 2016 if Trout never burst onto the scenes in 2012 because that was the first season where Wins Above Replacement was gaining its recognition. It's likely that Trout would have won the 2012 AL MVP if people had value WAR the same way as they do now.

So you're saying that Trout is to WAR what Ruth was to HR? Ha. Anyhow, I think even today's WAR-informed voters would have a hard time not giving it to the Triple Crown winning Miggy Cabrera. 

2 minutes ago, JustATroutFan said:

So back to Betts. To me, not counting 2020 (60-game season), the only season where I for sure can say that he was an elite hitter was in 2018, and even that season should have some controversy with Cora as his manager, Doubt Betts would have gotten that contract that the Dodgers handed out to him if WAR never existed. Same for Lindor. Like I already stated, guys like Gordon and Heyward only got paid superstar money because of WAR (especially defensive WAR), which was made famous by Trout. And yes, Trout DID indeed changed the game of baseball because his performance in 2012 changed the way people value a player's performance. You see guys like Machado playing third base currently rather than shortstop because defensive WAR says he is an excellent defensive third basemen but not a good defensive shortstop. The same thing happened to Trout (funny) in 2014. The Angels moved him back to center because defensive WAR stated that he wasn't on his game in left while at the same time, it showed that he was excellent defensively in 2012. The examples that I just provided about players playing the positions that best suited for them was only made possible because of Trout changing the game. I think Trout should get more attention for changing the game than he is getting. Playing good defense is such an important factor in winning games, and that means putting guys in the right place to succeed. 

I agree that Trout fueled WAR popularity, but I'm not sure he was the main, and definitely not, only reason it is so popular. The sabermetrics movement goes back 40 years to old grand-daddy Bill James, and has gradually increased in popularity. Trout simply showcased the value of WAR.

But yes, I agree that some players became more valued than they would have, if WAR didn't exist. On the other hand, it may be that baseball orgs have their own in-house metrics that are "WAR-esque" (or better), that they would have used to recognize the value of the Gordons and Heywards of the world.

p.s. I guess you don't believe in paragraph breaks? 

[JustATroutFan]

6 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

So you're saying that Trout is to WAR what Ruth was to HR? Ha. Anyhow, I think even today's WAR-informed voters would have a hard time not giving it to the Triple Crown winning Miggy Cabrera. 

I agree that Trout fueled WAR popularity, but I'm not sure he was the main, and definitely not, only reason it is so popular. The sabermetrics movement goes back 40 years to old grand-daddy Bill James, and has gradually increased in popularity. Trout simply showcased the value of WAR.

But yes, I agree that some players became more valued than they would have, if WAR didn't exist. On the other hand, it may be that baseball orgs have their own in-house metrics that are "WAR-esque" (or better), that they would have used to recognize the value of the Gordons and Heywards of the world.

p.s. I guess you don't believe in paragraph breaks? 

I don't see it as a coincidence that Gordon and Heyward both got paid superstar money in 2015 because of WAR. No one would have said any of those two were at one point superstar players at the big leagues after the 2015 regular season. You're right that Trout's not the only reason that WAR became famous because the people who created WAR should get recognition for that too. But he made it famous. The same can be said for Ruth. He didn't invent the long ball. And people were already hitting a few, not many, before he did. But he did make home runs popular just like what Trout did for WAR. In terms of changing the sport that they played in, I'll add Curry in the list and what he's done when it comes to shooting threes. He's hitting like 400 threes (!) a season these days. I once thought that hitting even 200 threes in a season was a lot for a player. He's doing twice as many. Now the NBA is becoming a league where the obsessions for threes is off the charts and that is because of Curry. He didn't invent it because he helped changed the way the game is played and old school folks hate that teams are shooting more threes than ever. 

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, JustATroutFan said:

I don't see it as a coincidence that Gordon and Heyward both got paid superstar money in 2015 because of WAR. No one would have said any of those two were at one point superstar players at the big leagues after the 2015 regular season. You're right that Trout's not the only reason that WAR became famous because the people who created WAR should get recognition for that too. But he made it famous. The same can be said for Ruth. He didn't invent the long ball. And people were already hitting a few, not many, before he did. But he did make home runs popular just like what Trout did for WAR. In terms of changing the sport that they played in, I'll add Curry in the list and what he's done when it comes to shooting threes. He's hitting like 400 threes (!) a season these days. I once thought that hitting even 200 threes in a season was a lot for a player. He's doing twice as many. Now the NBA is becoming a league where the obsessions for threes is off the charts and that is because of Curry. He didn't invent it because he helped changed the way the game is played and old school folks hate that teams are shooting more threes than ever. 

Which Gordon? Alex?  

[Lou]

16 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Which Gordon? Alex?  

Lightfoot

[Dtwncbad]

1 hour ago, Taylor said:

1.061 road OPS.

He has also homered in every game that he has gotten a hit in where the hit is not a single, double or triple.

[rageous]

6 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

That is incorrect. Pujols had a 77 wRC+ in both 2017 and 2020. Rendon's at 87. Still, nothing to be proud of - he's been well below average.

Anyhow, I'm not worried about Rendon. He may never be as good as he was in 2017-20 (6-7 WAR per year), but I think he'll have at least a few more in the 4-6 WAR range. I could see something like .280/.370/.480, 25 HR, 130 wRC+, 5 WAR next year.

I was looking at Ops but it seems like Rendon has crept up a little bit in the last few games and is now above some of Pujols worst years.

Baby steps.

[Angels 1961]

1 hour ago, tomsred said:

Then where and when will will get an #1, other than Ohtani?  We certainly haven't been able to draft and develop one to this point.

I'm just saying long term deals usually end up bad. You have Ohtani, Sandoval, Suarez, Detmers, Chris Rodriguez and Barria  for 2022. Trade for a pitcher. Oakland and Tampa seem to doing very well without spending 100 or more on a player.

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 hour ago, Lou said:

Lightfoot

Its like you read his mind....

 

(Thats the only song of his i know)(Wonderland is an underrated movie)

[Angelsjunky]

59 minutes ago, rageous said:

I was looking at Ops but it seems like Rendon has crept up a little bit in the last few games and is now above some of Pujols worst years.

Baby steps.

One different with Pujols is that Pujols whole plate approach changed, probably starting in 2011 or even late 2010 (he had a poor second half, so I think started declining after his ridiculous first half of 2010). Pujols became a hacking power hitter. Rendon is far more disciplined and, I think, won't do that. So at worst, he'll stabilize at a lower level - maybe .280/.370/.460 - for a few years, and thus still be a ~4 WAR player. We can hope for more than that, though.

[Blarg]

5 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Its like you read his mind....

 

(Thats the only song of his i know)(Wonderland is an underrated movie)

The Wreck of the Edmond Fitzgerald.

[Lou]

27 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Its like you read his mind....

 

(Thats the only song of his i know)(Wonderland is an underrated movie)

It was also in the episode titled "Matos" in season 4 of The Blacklist. (great scene, btw).

You have to have heard this Gordon Lightfoot song:

 

[JustATroutFan]

5 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

One different with Pujols is that Pujols whole plate approach changed, probably starting in 2011 or even late 2010 (he had a poor second half, so I think started declining after his ridiculous first half of 2010). Pujols became a hacking power hitter. Rendon is far more disciplined and, I think, won't do that. So at worst, he'll stabilize at a lower level - maybe .280/.370/.460 - for a few years, and thus still be a ~4 WAR player. We can hope for more than that, though.

Speaking of hacking power hitter, Baez (his performance has falling off a lot from 2019), assuming he can find it with the bat from now until the end of the regular season, is going to be the next player who nobody would say is a superstar and will still get paid like a superstar in a few months. Say he finishes with a .260/.300/.500 slash line for the 2021 regular season and continues to play terrific defense, a massive contract is coming his way, something like a contract that is worth $180 million over 7 years. So a solid, albeit not great, hitter with terrific defense will get paid superstar money if that is the case with Baez by the start of this year's free agency. Looks like a couple of players that I went over yesterday. Baez's WAR for the 2018 and 2019 regular season were 6.4 and 6.7 on Baseball Reference. If Baez does indeed get that massive contract, he should thank Trout for being a big part of why he got the contract. Gordon and Heyward both should be thanking Trout for how much they got paid after the 2015 regular season. Geez, I wonder if Figgins would have gotten something like a contract that was worth $72 million over 4 years if Wins Above Replacement had existed back in 2009. Figgins had a WAR of over 7.0 in the 2009 regular season, including a 3.3 defensive Wins Above Replacement that same season. 

[Adam]

20 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

I’m still not worried about Rendon.  I still think he will have multiple top 5ish MVP types seasons for the Angels.

What are you looking at that gives you that impression?

He’s a legitimate Hamilton level bust

[Dtwncbad]

44 minutes ago, Adam said:

What are you looking at that gives you that impression?

He’s a legitimate Hamilton level bust

Slow motion video of Heidi Klum

[Duren, Duren]

Not looking at stats, but just an eye test. Rendon was hitting a ton of flyballs and pop ups. Even most of his foul balls aren't the type where he gets good wood on the ball. Seems his swing and timing are still off. A bit better lately, but not consistent hard hit type swings. Could be lingering injuries/physical discomfort, or just out of sync at the plate.

[angelsnationtalk]

On 6/29/2021 at 1:53 PM, Chuckster70 said:

I agree with you and @Blarg on this one regarding Mike Trout being removed. That's not really fair IMO.

I think maybe as an asterisk *Missed time due to injury

Yup! I think if he was healthy, he'd be in a three-way race with Guerrero Jr and Ohtani for MVP.

[Stradling]

On 6/30/2021 at 7:10 AM, Adam said:

What are you looking at that gives you that impression?

He’s a legitimate Hamilton level bust

Not even close. 

[JustATroutFan]

Bellinger currently has a .176/.291/.303 slash line this regular season. Wow, he's been even way more horrible ever since this thread was made. Bellinger probably misses the juiced baseballs from 2019 that made him look like Trout at the plate. Take away hs fluky 2019 season and he looks more like a worse version of Adam Dunn at the dish, not Trout-like at all. The juiced baseballs made so many guys, especially in the steroids era, look like Trout with the bat (like Richard Hidalgo and Tim Salmon in 2000). I really doubt that their real slash lines would have been like that if it weren't for the juiced baseballs. The baseballs were also juiced in 1987 and while they won't admit it, the league juiced the baseballs during the steroids era (1993-2009) because MLB is a business. They will do anything in their power to put fans in the seats. It's too bad that Trout's first full season didn't start in 1993. Could you imagine if 2012-2015, as well as 2018, were juiced baseball seasons? He might have about 50-60 more home runs to his career totals. 

[Taylor]

Bellinger must have some mental thing going on. 

[Angels 1961]

On 6/29/2021 at 10:42 AM, rageous said:

Rendon is having a worse hitting year than Pujols ever had in his time as an Angels.

 

Pujols having better year with Dodgers than Rendon with Angels

[Angels 1961]

2 hours ago, Taylor said:

Bellinger must have some mental thing going on. 

No it is his shoulder after hitting HR in WS last year.

[Angels 1961]

On 7/1/2021 at 7:40 AM, Stradling said:

Not even close. 

No matter what he is getting 38 mill for next 5 seasons. This off season what kind of pitchers could we get with that money?