Holy Hell, Trevor Bauer!

[Pancake Bear]

2 hours ago, Trendon said:

From what I can tell, the Angels have somewhere between $15M to $20M left to spend before they reach last year's payroll (before salaries were pro-rated).

Arte could opt to give Minasian more money to work with, but I'm not counting on it.

Unlikely to be anything less than 20m. Would be more surprised to see it be less than that total than I would be to see them spend more - mostly based on what we've heard to date. 

[BTH]

4 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Unlikely to be anything less than 20m. Would be more surprised to see it be less than that total than I would be to see them spend more - mostly based on what we've heard to date. 

The only thing we have definitively heard is Arte saying that payroll is "not going down," and like I said, they're only 15-20 million away from matching last year's payroll (before it was pro-rated).

I'm just working off what they've said and what the numbers say.

[Docwaukee]

20 minutes ago, Trendon said:

Minasian himself acknowledged the Angels could use some OF depth, so I think they may add to the outfield.

Also, I think the bullpen still needs A LOT of work. They need to add both proven arms and depth in the pen, IMO.

to me, OF depth is that minor league invite or maybe the guy you add at the end of the off season and right before spring for about 1m.  

I disagree on the pen.  I don't think it needs a lot of work but it definitely needs some.  Adding a late innings arm can change the entire dynamic by moving everyone down.  I think it'll be one legit mlb guy and then a couple minor league invites.  

 

[Angels_Make_Me_Drink]

If we only have $20 million or so left, be prepared for another sub .500 season, another year of Trout and Rendon wasted OR be prepared to lose significant prospects in deals for some arms. 

[BTH]

5 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I disagree on the pen.  I don't think it needs a lot of work but it definitely needs some.  Adding a late innings arm can change the entire dynamic by moving everyone down.  I think it'll be one legit mlb guy and then a couple minor league invites.  

My problem with the pen is I think it lacks both stability and depth. Iglesias and Claudio are the only relievers that I'd consider to be reliable, meaning that you know they aren't going to be completely awful. Mayers, Peña, and Buttrey could be good, or they could be bad. Bard, Keller, Quijada, Reyes, Rivera, and the NRI's are all unknown commodities. Who knows how Barria, Peters, Sandoval, or Suarez would do in the pen.

[tdawg87]

IMO there's no such thing as a "reliable" reliever. I mean obviously the best of the best are exceptions, but everything below that? The biggest crap shoot ever.

Robles was one of the best relief pitchers in baseball in 2019. You just can't predict this shit. 

[Stradling]

5 hours ago, beatlesrule said:

^^Minasian will have to go the trade route if Arte indeed has given him a budget.

As of today, I am guessing the rotation will be Bundy, Heaney, Canning, Barria and Sandoval.

I got a bet for you.  If the Angels don’t acquire a starting pitcher I’ll take the rest of the off season off from posting. If they do acquire a starting pitcher you take the rest of the off season off.  

[Stradling]

2 hours ago, Angels_Make_Me_Drink said:

If we only have $20 million or so left, be prepared for another sub .500 season, another year of Trout and Rendon wasted OR be prepared to lose significant prospects in deals for some arms. 

Why

[Docwaukee]

25 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Why

he's just looking out for us.  

[beatlesrule]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

I got a bet for you.  If the Angels don’t acquire a starting pitcher I’ll take the rest of the off season off from posting. If they do acquire a starting pitcher you take the rest of the off season off.  

You misunderstood my post or didn't read the AS OF TODAY. I simply meant that if the season started today, that would be the rotation. I did not imply that Minasian would not sign a SP. If he adds a SP, that would mean either one of our current SP would have been traded or they would go to the pen or down to AAA.

[Pancake Bear]

1 hour ago, beatlesrule said:

You misunderstood my post or didn't read the AS OF TODAY. I simply meant that if the season started today, that would be the rotation. I did not imply that Minasian would not sign a SP. If he adds a SP, that would mean either one of our current SP would have been traded or they would go to the pen or down to AAA.

You also said, "I'm guessing the rotation will be". That implies you expected no changes, and 'as of today' could be taken either way. Speculating what our rotation would be with no further changes is not something anyone would assume unless you explicitly state that is what you're saying. Also, if that was your intent, even with the post as is, you should've written, "I'm guessing the rotation would be..."

You're welcome. 

[Cosmo_Kramer]

Angels ~$165 million payroll right now, including Suzuki and arbitration deals. They finished ~$180 million last year.

Angels luxury tax ~$180 million right now. $210/$230/$250 million are the tax levels.

[Cosmo_Kramer]

1 minute ago, Cosmo_Kramer said:

Angels ~$165 million payroll right now, including Suzuki and arbitration deals. They finished ~$180 million last year.

Angels luxury tax ~$180 million right now. $210/$230/$250 million are the tax levels.

Bauer 6/180 (15/25/30/30/40/40) would fit, as an example

[Hubs]

5 hours ago, Cosmo_Kramer said:

Bauer 6/180 (15/25/30/30/40/40) would fit, as an example

Angels Luxury Tax number is lower than you said. But It is irrelevant now. Trout is like $2 m less, Pujols is $6 m less, and Upton is $3 m Less, Rendon is $6.5 m more and Iglesias is like .20 less, or something. So the luxury tax is say $5 Less plus the 15.5 and 1.5 million in minor League 40 man salaries that go on the number so maybe $12 more than the 162 I have them at now. So 174. With a tax at 210, or 36M In room now.

Luxury Tax is irrelevant though until the end Of the season. Guys may be promoted from the 40, guys may be cut, and all of that is prorated.

The Angels were actually at 191 M in real Payroll before the pandemic shortened salaries and they’d have like 29M left to get there again. 

[angelsnationtalk]

It’s been about 2 weeks since Luba said he’s gotten offers that are showing COVID hasn’t impacted the dollar amount. Trevor Bauer has had offers in his hands for awhile now. 

This waiting game is now starting to get completely pathetic.

[Jay]

1 hour ago, angelsnationtalk said:

It’s been about 2 weeks since Luba said he’s gotten offers that are showing COVID hasn’t impacted the dollar amount. Trevor Bauer has had offers in his hands for awhile now. 

This waiting game is now starting to get completely pathetic.

Apparently Bauer thinks the offers will increase with time.

[Erstad Grit]

1 hour ago, angelsnationtalk said:

It’s been about 2 weeks since Luba said he’s gotten offers that are showing COVID hasn’t impacted the dollar amount. Trevor Bauer has had offers in his hands for awhile now. 

This waiting game is now starting to get completely pathetic.

Now that the other top FA are starting to sign I agree with you. 

[angelsnationtalk]

19 minutes ago, Jay said:

Apparently Bauer thinks the offers will increase with time.

At the beginning I was enjoying his posts and vlogs, but now it’s become an F-ing headache. I only say this on the Angels’ behalf because I feel like the more and more he stretches this out then the more likely the Angels are still waiting for him to sign while everyone else chooses a team. At the end of everything we will be left with signing someone like Quintana and that’s it....

Angels are about to screw themselves by waiting for Bauer to choose and then realize he goes to Toronto or Chicago and they’ll be left, yet again, with nothing.

If Angels can’t sign him by the end of this coming week then they should move on.

[Jay]

Agree the Angels can't wait forever.

I would think that an offer has an expiration date.

Either accept by a certain date or we have to go in a different direction.

 

[greginpsca]

1 hour ago, angelsnationtalk said:

It’s been about 2 weeks since Luba said he’s gotten offers that are showing COVID hasn’t impacted the dollar amount. Trevor Bauer has had offers in his hands for awhile now. 

This waiting game is now starting to get completely pathetic.

It's about time the leaks start happening to help drive up his price. If there are leaks, it might mean he isn't getting offers that he likes. So, i guess we will hear about 3-5 teams involved, maybe even a mystery team.

[Stradling]

44 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

At the beginning I was enjoying his posts and vlogs, but now it’s become an F-ing headache. I only say this on the Angels’ behalf because I feel like the more and more he stretches this out then the more likely the Angels are still waiting for him to sign while everyone else chooses a team. At the end of everything we will be left with signing someone like Quintana and that’s it....

Angels are about to screw themselves by waiting for Bauer to choose and then realize he goes to Toronto or Chicago and they’ll be left, yet again, with nothing.

If Angels can’t sign him by the end of this coming week then they should move on.

The good news for you is he hasn’t posted in quite awhile so his posts and vlogs aren’t really much of a headache lately.  

[Cosmo_Kramer]

4 hours ago, Hubs said:

Angels Luxury Tax number is lower than you said. But It is irrelevant now. Trout is like $2 m less, Pujols is $6 m less, and Upton is $3 m Less, Rendon is $6.5 m more and Iglesias is like .20 less, or something. So the luxury tax is say $5 Less plus the 15.5 and 1.5 million in minor League 40 man salaries that go on the number so maybe $12 more than the 162 I have them at now. So 174. With a tax at 210, or 36M In room now.

Luxury Tax is irrelevant though until the end Of the season. Guys may be promoted from the 40, guys may be cut, and all of that is prorated.

The Angels were actually at 191 M in real Payroll before the pandemic shortened salaries and they’d have like 29M left to get there again. 

Your numbers are getting mixed up. The Angels luxury tax number last year was $191 million. Not real payroll. The luxury tax is just an AAV calculation.

Real payroll is what matters to Arte. Last year was ~$180 million real payroll. Currently this year is ~$165 million. So real payroll is ~$15 million short of last year. But Arte could increase payroll from last year. And you can backload FA contracts so the real payroll stays lower this year.

The luxury tax is just AAV though. So backloading doesn't matter. Actual payroll doesn't matter. It's the AAVs of the team added up. Last year, again, $191 million, but currently at ~$180 million luxury tax. The first threshold is $210 million, so the Angels are ~$30 million short of the luxury tax.

We have heard from Jeff in the past that Arte is willing to exceed the luxury tax, but operates based on actual payroll. So the Angels will likely add $15 million of real payroll, but the luxury tax number will depend on the AAVs.

My sample Bauer contract had $15 million salary in 2021 and $30 million AAV.

[wopphil]

19 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Catchers: They're basically set, with Stassi, Suzuki and Bemboom, and then Graterol and Kruger in an emergency.

Infield: Set.

Outfield: While some have speculated they'll sign a RFer, I don't think it is necessary. They can fill the spot with Ward, Schebler, and maybe Walsh until Marsh/Adell is ready. Pillar would be nice, but is $5M+ they don't really need to spend.

Rotation: They need a guy, maybe two, but I think one guy is enough.

Bullpen: They could probably use one or two more, but could also flesh it out with depth starters. 

So they needs are down to:

1-2 starters

0-2 relievers

That's pretty much it. I expect Bauer to get somewhere in the 5-7 year, $30-33M range (so, $5/165 to 7/$210).  It could be back-loaded so it is $20M in 2021, $25M in 2022 (Pujols gone), and $35M the remaining years (Upton gone). Or something like that. But assuming $20M in 2021, that gives the Angels about $5M to get either a depth starter or a could solid relievers.

 

I think this is pretty spot on. They need two starters, and may or may not add one more reliever. And that’s about it. I think they are done on the position player side of things. 

I think they could realistically add Bauer on a back-loaded deal and trade for a guy like Musgrove. Maybe even sign a mid-tier relief guy for $3-4 mil. 

[Hubs]

1 hour ago, Cosmo_Kramer said:

Your numbers are getting mixed up. The Angels luxury tax number last year was $191 million. Not real payroll. The luxury tax is just an AAV calculation.

Real payroll is what matters to Arte. Last year was ~$180 million real payroll. Currently this year is ~$165 million. So real payroll is ~$15 million short of last year. But Arte could increase payroll from last year. And you can backload FA contracts so the real payroll stays lower this year.

The luxury tax is just AAV though. So backloading doesn't matter. Actual payroll doesn't matter. It's the AAVs of the team added up. Last year, again, $191 million, but currently at ~$180 million luxury tax. The first threshold is $210 million, so the Angels are ~$30 million short of the luxury tax.

We have heard from Jeff in the past that Arte is willing to exceed the luxury tax, but operates based on actual payroll. So the Angels will likely add $15 million of real payroll, but the luxury tax number will depend on the AAVs.

My sample Bauer contract had $15 million salary in 2021 and $30 million AAV.

You assume that I got them mixed up. I didn’t. Cots had it earlier in the off-season at 191, they’ve since revised it to 184. I find their numbers to be more accurate to what is reported than fangraphs or spotrac. The reported figure Of just over 71 at 37 percent is right there at 191. They’ve been as high as 189 In previous years in real payroll.

I have them currently slightly over 150 in guaranteed contracts (real payroll). AAV is around 5M less, as Trout is down 1.6, Pujols is down 6 and Upton is down 3 plus R.Iglesias is down 0.25. Thats about 11 m but Rendon is getting 35 and his number is just north of 28.

Club control and Ohtani adds 11-12 Max so 162. 

How high they’ll go, no one knows but Arte. 

I doubt Bauer takes 15 in first year unless he also got a 15 M signing bonus.

[Blarg]

At this point I'd rather Minasian find another source to improve pitching than a headline deal for Bauer.