Holy Hell, Trevor Bauer!

[Cosmo_Kramer]

21 minutes ago, Hubs said:

You assume that I got them mixed up. I didn’t. Cots had it earlier in the off-season at 191, they’ve since revised it to 184. I find their numbers to be more accurate to what is reported than fangraphs or spotrac. The reported figure Of just over 71 at 37 percent is right there at 191. They’ve been as high as 189 In previous years in real payroll.

I have them currently slightly over 150 in guaranteed contracts (real payroll). AAV is around 5M less, as Trout is down 1.6, Pujols is down 6 and Upton is down 3 plus R.Iglesias is down 0.25. Thats about 11 m but Rendon is getting 35 and his number is just north of 28.

Club control and Ohtani adds 11-12 Max so 162. 

How high they’ll go, no one knows but Arte. 

I doubt Bauer takes 15 in first year unless he also got a 15 M signing bonus.

Roster resource is accurate. You are not including player benefits and 40 man roster salaries in your luxury tax calculations. 162M AAV appears to be your active roster total, so add ~15.5M and ~2.25M, respectively. Therefore, it comes out to ~180M luxury tax currently. 

Also, 15M signing bonus counts as real payroll for the year it's paid, so that wouldn't be helpful.

[gotbeer]

The more this goes on, the more I hope the Angels pass.  Sportrac has his number at around $20 million.  If he's asking for $30 or even Cole's $38 million.  Could be a reason why it's all talk from his camp right now, and crickets from it seems like every single team.  Even teams that can't keep their mouths shut seem to be dead silent on him.  I just hope we don't get so desperate that we fuck ourselves for another XX years.  

[tdawg87]

3 minutes ago, gotbeer said:

The more this goes on, the more I hope the Angels pass.  Sportrac has his number at around $20 million.  If he's asking for $30 or even Cole's $38 million.  Could be a reason why it's all talk from his camp right now, and crickets from it seems like every single team.  Even teams that can't keep their mouths shut seem to be dead silent on him.  I just hope we don't get so desperate that we fuck ourselves for another XX years.  

Whether he gets paid $25 or $35 million makes no difference in that regard. 

We need a frontline starter. No one else has signed him, so there's no reason to "pass".

[Angels 1961]

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

At this point I'd rather Minasian find another source to improve pitching than a headline deal for Bauer. 

 

46 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Whether he gets paid $25 or $35 million makes no difference in that regard. 

We need a frontline starter. No one else has signed him, so there's no reason to "pass".

 

47 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Whether he gets paid $25 or $35 million makes no difference in that regard. 

We need a frontline starter. No one else has signed him, so there's no reason to "pass".

Happy Birthday Trevor, no matter where you sign best of luck. 

[Angels 1961]

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

At this point I'd rather Minasian find another source to improve pitching than a headline deal for Bauer. 

Tanaka and Walker

[gotbeer]

22 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

Tanaka and Walker

I've been wanting Walker since FA opened.  He just seems like a pitcher that will far outperform his salary.  Sportrac doesn't even have a comparable for him to estimate his salary.  His prove it year last season after his injury was pretty good.  I really think he could be signed far under $10 million, and he could become a legit #2 for us.

[Angels 1961]

1 hour ago, gotbeer said:

I've been wanting Walker since FA opened.  He just seems like a pitcher that will far outperform his salary.  Sportrac doesn't even have a comparable for him to estimate his salary.  His prove it year last season after his injury was pretty good.  I really think he could be signed far under $10 million, and he could become a legit #2 for us.

I like him also but Angels will have to pay more than 10 mill. Martin Perez was at 5 mill. Even if Angels spend few more mill to get him they should do it. 

[Hubs]

4 hours ago, Cosmo_Kramer said:

Roster resource is accurate. You are not including player benefits and 40 man roster salaries in your luxury tax calculations. 162M AAV appears to be your active roster total, so add ~15.5M and ~2.25M, respectively. Therefore, it comes out to ~180M luxury tax currently. 

Also, 15M signing bonus counts as real payroll for the year it's paid, so that wouldn't be helpful.

Roster resource is not that accurate. I keep a spreadsheet and used to do the salary articles on here before ettin.

 We can disagree on this — I don’t care. 

I didn’t mention the luxury tax benefits and active roster totals, but I know they’re there. 162 is my active roster total. Luxury tax is around 157 Plus benefits and 4 man which is around 15.5 and 2.25 Like you said which puts them at 175. 35 in luxury tax payroll before the tax and around 28 in real payroll before they get to 190, 23 if they Get to 185..

 

 

[Angelsfan1984]

10 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Roster resource is not that accurate. I keep a spreadsheet and used to do the salary articles on here before ettin.

 We can disagree on this — I don’t care. 

I didn’t mention the luxury tax benefits and active roster totals, but I know they’re there. 162 is my active roster total. Luxury tax is around 157 Plus benefits and 4 man which is around 15.5 and 2.25 Like you said which puts them at 175. 35 in luxury tax payroll before the tax and around 28 in real payroll before they get to 190, 23 if they Get to 185..

 

 

[Warfarin]

To help clarify confusion, here are some links to last year's payroll:

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-west/la-angels/

Here is a link to our 2020 payroll:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VGOfP7l110-tNq5CX0Gp3NCnDqj1MwOQOfanxNZGBdI/edit#gid=1520401900

As you can see, our player payroll would have been: $184,016,036.

So - we would have spent ~184mil on our 26-man roster.

Here is a link to our current payroll situation:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FsmsUpbOz2RsyxdPSM1oXHHuIE33NhIMEN-7bD0J9mg/edit#gid=1520401900

As you can see, we are at roughly 165mil, or about 20mil below last year's player payroll.

Thus - it is probably fair to say we have at least 20mil to spend, and I would project upwards to 25mil, as I do take Arte at his word.

Assuming ~25mil, we can trade for Musgrove and still have ~20mil leftover to get another SP, find a LHH OF, and get another reliever perhaps.

[Docwaukee]

15 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Roster resource is not that accurate. I keep a spreadsheet and used to do the salary articles on here before ettin.

 We can disagree on this — I don’t care. 

I didn’t mention the luxury tax benefits and active roster totals, but I know they’re there. 162 is my active roster total. Luxury tax is around 157 Plus benefits and 4 man which is around 15.5 and 2.25 Like you said which puts them at 175. 35 in luxury tax payroll before the tax and around 28 in real payroll before they get to 190, 23 if they Get to 185..

 

 

what are you estimating for non arb and non guaranteed salaries?  

[BTH]

3 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

To help clarify confusion, here are some links to last year's payroll:

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-west/la-angels/

Here is a link to our 2020 payroll:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VGOfP7l110-tNq5CX0Gp3NCnDqj1MwOQOfanxNZGBdI/edit#gid=1520401900

As you can see, our player payroll would have been: $184,016,036.

So - we would have spent ~184mil on our 26-man roster.

Here is a link to our current payroll situation:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FsmsUpbOz2RsyxdPSM1oXHHuIE33NhIMEN-7bD0J9mg/edit#gid=1520401900

As you can see, we are at roughly 165mil, or about 20mil below last year's player payroll.

Thus - it is probably fair to say we have at least 20mil to spend, and I would project upwards to 25mil, as I do take Arte at his word.

Assuming ~25mil, we can trade for Musgrove and still have ~20mil leftover to get another SP, find a LHH OF, and get another reliever perhaps.

Those links are confusing because they have inaccuracies. I don't remember if it was this thread or another thread where I already said this, but Cots has the wrong 2020 salaries for Trout and Upton and has the wrong 2021 salary for Upton. Also, it does not include the 900,000 CIN is sending to the Angels in the Iglesias trade.

[Cosmo_Kramer]

3 minutes ago, Trendon said:

Those links are confusing because they have inaccuracies. I don't remember if it was this thread or another thread where I already said this, but Cots has the wrong 2020 salaries for Trout and Upton and has the wrong 2021 salary for Upton. Also, it does not include the 900,000 CIN is sending to the Angels in the Iglesias trade.

And this is why Roster Resource is the site to use..

[Warfarin]

12 minutes ago, Trendon said:

Those links are confusing because they have inaccuracies. I don't remember if it was this thread or another thread where I already said this, but Cots has the wrong 2020 salaries for Trout and Upton and has the wrong 2021 salary for Upton. Also, it does not include the 900,000 CIN is sending to the Angels in the Iglesias trade.

Good points, but it appears they are only a bit off marginally - a few million or so cumulatively.  Not ideal, but all things considered, I think it points to roughly the same estimate of what is (probably) available left to spend.  I'm sure Arte has a budget in mind, but I imagine if there is significant value to be had, it can be adjusted as well.  I do think ~20-25mil is probably a reasonable projection for how much is left to be spent.

EDIT: Looking at RosterResource, as suggested by @Cosmo_Kramer and @Trendon, does show we are about 15mil below last year's level.  Again, taking Arte at his word that budget will not go down, that is a minimum of 15mil, but I do think "will not go down" probably means "will go up at least a little bit," so let's just say we have ~20mil to spend - again, enough to acquire 2 SPs, I'd say.  Perhaps Musgrove + one of Paxton/Odorizzi/Quintana/etc.

[Docwaukee]

Just now, Cosmo_Kramer said:

And this is why Roster Resource is the site to use..

they're both within a couple of mil of each other.  roster resource looks right.  point is, we have about 15m before we about equal last year's payroll.  Which is what Arte said it wouldn't drop below.  

[BTH]

2 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Good points, but it appears they are only a bit off marginally - a few million or so cumulatively.  Not ideal, but all things considered, I think it points to roughly the same estimate of what is (probably) available left to spend.  I'm sure Arte has a budget in mind, but I imagine if there is significant value to be had, it can be adjusted as well.  I do think ~20-25mil is probably a reasonable projection for how much is left to be spent.

If you use accurate numbers, the only confusing part is how much money the pre-arb players make. Roster Resource has accurate numbers, but everyone is just forced to guess/estimate the total for pre-arb players.

[BTH]

Maybe this is a bad way to go about it, but I can't imagine that the pre-arb player totals is that different year-to-year. So, to me, it seems like if you take the Angels non pre-arb salary total for 2020 and subtract their non pre-arb salary total for 2021, you'll get around the number they have to spend if payroll stays the same.

So that would be: $172,525,952 - $155,713,096 = $16,812,856 or ~$17M. (That presumes that Ohtani wins his arb case and makes $3.3M instead of $2.5M.

[tdawg87]

[Hubs]

Cots and RR are both prone to errors for totals. Not every site is perfect.

Anyway, I’m using major league minimum plus a few thousand for each of the club control guys, we won’t know until they renew. For arbitration I was using MLBTR’s numbers. Not factoring in non guaranteed money unless they make the opening day roster and contract is guaranteed. Not factoring in split salaries either. 

I think most want to know if the Angels will go over the tax and if they have room for free agents. They still have a lot of room before they get to the tax.

Cots is only missing the 900k that the Reds are sending. Both are high regarding the salaries of cc guys. RR has a different number for Upton. It looks like they’re correct, except Cots has had this number for years, and maybe  there is a bonus payout or something .

 

[Warfarin]

6 minutes ago, Trendon said:

Maybe this is a bad way to go about it, but I can't imagine that the pre-arb player totals is that different year-to-year. So, to me, it seems like if you take the Angels non pre-arb salary total for 2020 and subtract their non pre-arb salary total for 2021, you'll get around the number they have to spend if payroll stays the same.

So that would be: $172,525,952 - $155,713,096 = $16,812,856 or ~$17M. (That presumes that Ohtani wins his arb case and makes $3.3M instead of $2.5M.

Right.  And, reasonably, I still think it means the same - we likely have enough payroll to fit two SPs - likely one via trade, such as Musgrove, Grey, or Castillo, and then another mid-tier FA SP.  Likely, Bauer is not in the cards here, unless Arte has decided he wants to significantly increase payroll.

Still - a trade for Musgrove and signing someone like Paxton/Odorizzi/Quintana/etc would give us a very solid rotation, with Bundy, Musgrove, Heaney, Paxton/Odorizzi/Quintana, Canning, Ohtani.  

[BTH]

Just now, Warfarin said:

Right.  And, reasonably, I still think it means the same - we likely have enough payroll to fit two SPs - likely one via trade, such as Musgrove, Grey, or Castillo, and then another mid-tier FA SP.  Likely, Bauer is not in the cards here, unless Arte has decided he wants to significantly increase payroll.

Still - a trade for Musgrove and signing someone like Paxton/Odorizzi/Quintana/etc would give us a very solid rotation, with Bundy, Musgrove, Heaney, Paxton/Odorizzi/Quintana, Canning, Ohtani.  

Yeah, they should have enough to add two at least solid starters. If Arte gave Minasian more money to spend, they could improve the quality of the starter(s) or add depth in the bullpen and/or outfield.

[Warfarin]

1 minute ago, Trendon said:

Yeah, they should have enough to add two at least solid starters. If Arte gave Minasian more money to spend, they could improve the quality of the starter(s) or add depth in the bullpen and/or outfield.

Yeah.  Using Fangraphs' crowd-sourced deals, if we signed Paxton to a 2/30 deal, we could probably stagger it 14/16, and combine that with a Musgrove (4.45mil), then that's 18.45mil added.  If Arte wants to expand the budget a bit further, we could likely find a decent LHH OF or reliever - someone like Yates, who would probably want an incentive-based deal, for example.

[Hubs]

9 minutes ago, Trendon said:

Maybe this is a bad way to go about it, but I can't imagine that the pre-arb player totals is that different year-to-year. So, to me, it seems like if you take the Angels non pre-arb salary total for 2020 and subtract their non pre-arb salary total for 2021, you'll get around the number they have to spend if payroll stays the same.

So that would be: $172,525,952 - $155,713,096 = $16,812,856 or ~$17M. (That presumes that Ohtani wins his arb case and makes $3.3M instead of $2.5M.

I’d say, there are 13 guys at 650 avg. Angels don’t give guys huge raises before arbitration as a matter of course. Fletcher and Canning will get more. Walsh might get a tiny bump. It’s Walsh, Ward, Fletcher, Canning, Buttrey and Barria likely get more than minimum and that’s it. The other guys right now being Rivera, Rengifo or Barreto, Thaiss, Two more pen  guys, will all be closer to the minimum. And I’m assuming two starters tbd

[jsnpritchett]

[Second Base]