Holy Hell, Trevor Bauer!

[Hubs 1,181]

I've said 6/180 in the past, and I'm really pro Bauer. He's the Ace they need.

But if it's 5/160, That's a bit more per year, but still ok. If it's 6/192 or 7/224 thats a lot. But the Angels can do it.

But really I think if the Angels are going to 6 man rotation, then I don't think he fits, as he wants to go every 4 days. So that's my thoughts this week.

Now I'm kind of thinking I want Sonny Gray, and a lower tier FA Pitcher like Richards or Walker, plus Realmuto. (2/14 was the projected deal for both Richards and Walker, and Gray makes 10 ish, meaning you have to get a small discount on Realmuto's first two seasons. (Maybe 18/22/24/26/28/3M Buyout of a 28M option),

Over Bauer (27/30/32/32/35/37), Musgrove (4) and Suzuki (4).

[Pancake Bear 1,999]

27 minutes ago, Junkballer said:

I get the sense that AAV is very important to Bauer and he has never to my knowledge said anything about term of contract (other than the one-year stuff).  It would be interesting to see how he would respond to a 3year/40m-ish AAV offer backloaded like 30m/40m/50m.  With anyone else in his position it would be a ridiculous thought, as he would be leaving a lot of money on the table if injury or performance dropoff precluded a subsequent large contract at age 32, however, he obviously is a different kind of guy.  From his one-year contract musings, his choice of agent, a tunnel vision kind of self assurance, he may think differently about term than conventional wisdom would hold.  A high AAV contract satisfies the perceived need to one-up Gerrit Cole in one form being that theres no way he can one-up him in a single contract.  The idea sound a lot more like something the Dodgers would do than the Angels, but it does take a lot of risk off the board albeit at a high price.    Its probably completely unrealistic not only on his side but it would peg the Angels as the CBT threshold for 3 years, but he just strikes me as someone who might do the seemingly unwise thing if it resonates with his own perspective and it intrigues me whether it is something he would consider by the Angels or another team.

He has talked about that in the past - one of the reasons he played with the idea of one year contracts is maximizing value. Thing of it is, it's like trading Trout: I don't think you could make value. Like, what would a 7 WAR season (being conservative) from Trout be worth on a one year? 50m? More? At some point, it just isn't worth it with your budget. In the same way, I'm not sure it makes sense for teams to go that high on a short term deal. More importantly, I don't know that the Angels are a team that could go that route. If they somehow manage to sign him (I remain cynical), it'll be hard enough on a 5-6 year deal.

[Pancake Bear 1,999]

16 minutes ago, Hubs said:

But really I think if the Angels are going to 6 man rotation, then I don't think he fits, as he wants to go every 4 days. So that's my thoughts this week.

I mean, I'm not sure it would be harder for the Angels than any other team. And if we're already running what is effectively a five man rotation while throwing Ohtani in once a week, I'm not sure that isn't easier for us than other teams since we're already screwing with the whole thing. 

That's assuming anyone would actually go for the every four days scheme, which is not at all certain. 

[Hubs 1,181]

41 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

I mean, I'm not sure it would be harder for the Angels than any other team. And if we're already running what is effectively a five man rotation while throwing Ohtani in once a week, I'm not sure that isn't easier for us than other teams since we're already screwing with the whole thing. 

That's assuming anyone would actually go for the every four days scheme, which is not at all certain. 

I actually ran a simulation and it’s very difficult to manage Bauer on three days rest and Ohtani on six. You often have to have a spot starter because no one from the regular rotation rest guys will be available.
 

You can maneuver it so that Bauer doesn’t often pitch on Sunday, bumping Ohtani I assume but with days off he’s often gonna go on 4 days rest just so the other three or four guys get starts on somewhat consistent rest.

[Pancake Bear 1,999]

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

I actually ran a simulation and it’s very difficult to manage Bauer on three days rest and Ohtani on six. You often have to have a spot starter because no one from the regular rotation rest guys will be available.
 

You can maneuver it so that Bauer doesn’t often pitch on Sunday, bumping Ohtani I assume but with days off he’s often gonna go on 4 days rest just so the other three or four guys get starts on somewhat consistent rest.

Easier to do then if your extra guy is someone like Barria, or maybe Canning - a swing man type. 

Also, I assume. Bauer is fine going five now and then. I don't think he means he must always pitch every time on four days rest. 

[Lou 42,460]

31 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Easier to do then if your extra guy is someone like Barria, or maybe Canning - a swing man type. 

Also, I assume. Bauer is fine going five now and then. I don't think he means he must always pitch every time on four days rest. 

Since when is Canning a swing man?

[Revad 500]

17 minutes ago, Lou said:

Since when is Canning a swing man?

Oh that’s when we have enough pitch for Canning to serve as a 5 or 6.  We wouldn’t want to be thinking be might be #2 or3.

[Lou 42,460]

6 minutes ago, Revad said:

Oh that’s when we have enough pitch for Canning to serve as a 5 or 6.  We wouldn’t want to be thinking be might be #2 or3.

Our staff isn't going to be good enough where he is a 5 or 6. 

FYI, he had an ERA of 3.99 last year.

[Pancake Bear 1,999]

34 minutes ago, Lou said:

Since when is Canning a swing man?

Probably isn't. That's why I said maybe. Reason being he's still young and could get pushed into that role, theoretically. Unlikely, but just spitballing. 

[Hubs 1,181]

Canning will be the best of the three starters that finished the season in the rotation for the Angels in 2020 and are still Projected to be in the rotation. Meaning he’ll be better than Bundy and Heaney. If not in 2021, then def in 2022. 

I think he’s a future Ace. Garrett Richards was the closest thing we had to an Ace before his Injury since Weaver’s peak. He also struggled a bit in his first seasons before his excellent 2014. Canning has been better and has started more games than Richards did in 2011-2013.

I can’t believe Richards is almost 33. 

Anyway, my point is canning is not a swing man and he won’t be bumped out of the rotation. 

[Cosmo_Kramer 126]

16 hours ago, Hubs said:

Canning will be the best of the three starters that finished the season in the rotation for the Angels in 2020 and are still Projected to be in the rotation. Meaning he’ll be better than Bundy and Heaney. If not in 2021, then def in 2022. 

I think he’s a future Ace. Garrett Richards was the closest thing we had to an Ace before his Injury since Weaver’s peak. He also struggled a bit in his first seasons before his excellent 2014. Canning has been better and has started more games than Richards did in 2011-2013.

I can’t believe Richards is almost 33. 

Anyway, my point is canning is not a swing man and he won’t be bumped out of the rotation. 

Canning's elbow could be worrying, but agreed on upside. His stuff is legit.

Here are the 20 starters with the lowest contact% over the last two seasons. Min 120 innings.

1-5. Snell, Castillo, Cole, Clevinger, DeGrom

6-10. Giolito, Bieber, Maeda, Verlander, Scherzer

11-15. Ray, Lamet, Sale, Carrasco, Flaherty

16-20. Gausman, Canning, Darvish, Strasburg, Corbin

Gray is 26, and Bauer is 27

[Tank 25,166]

On 1/12/2021 at 3:47 PM, Revad said:

You folks are going really hate me in a month I swear.  Where’s the fucking pitching?

i don't think it's going to take quite that long.

[Tank 25,166]

19 hours ago, Lou said:

Since when is Canning a swing man?

you obviously haven't seen him dance.

[Pancake Bear 1,999]

26 minutes ago, Cosmo_Kramer said:

Canning's elbow could be worrying, but agreed on upside. His stuff is legit.

Here are the 20 starters with the lowest contact% over the last two seasons. Min 120 innings.

1-5. Snell, Castillo, Cole, Clevinger, DeGrom

6-10. Giolito, Bieber, Maeda, Verlander, Scherzer

11-15. Ray, Lamet, Sale, Carrasco, Flaherty

16-20. Gausman, Canning, Darvish, Strasburg, Corbin

Gray is 26, and Bauer is 27

Bauer you have to account for his injuries in 2019. I'd be curious to see how he compared just in 2020 and just in 2018 (or 2018-20).

[Cosmo_Kramer 126]

1 hour ago, Pancake Bear said:

Bauer you have to account for his injuries in 2019. I'd be curious to see how he compared just in 2020 and just in 2018 (or 2018-20).

Not really since it's contact%.

2018-2020 15th among qualified starters

2019-2020 14th among qualified starters

2020 14th among qualified starters

[Angel Oracle 13,186]

19 hours ago, Hubs said:

Canning will be the best of the three starters that finished the season in the rotation for the Angels in 2020 and are still Projected to be in the rotation. Meaning he’ll be better than Bundy and Heaney. If not in 2021, then def in 2022. 

I think he’s a future Ace. Garrett Richards was the closest thing we had to an Ace before his Injury since Weaver’s peak. He also struggled a bit in his first seasons before his excellent 2014. Canning has been better and has started more games than Richards did in 2011-2013.

I can’t believe Richards is almost 33. 

Anyway, my point is canning is not a swing man and he won’t be bumped out of the rotation. 

Previous health concerns are the one thing in the way.

I’ll feel more secure if he can pitch at least 150 innings this season.

[Pancake Bear 1,999]

51 minutes ago, Cosmo_Kramer said:

Not really since it's contact%.

2018-2020 15th among qualified starters

2019-2020 14th among qualified starters

2020 14th among qualified starters

Interesting that that one is unchanged despite the results being night and day different from 2019 vs 2018 and 2020. 

[ten ocho recon scout 17,140]

On 1/13/2021 at 7:42 PM, Lou said:

Since when is Canning a swing man?

As in, to swinggg!

[Cosmo_Kramer 126]

7 hours ago, Pancake Bear said:

Interesting that that one is unchanged despite the results being night and day different from 2019 vs 2018 and 2020. 

2019 Bauer led the league in (walks+hbp) and gave up a lot of home runs

[Trendon 200]

From Jon Morosi: "The Angels are looking to sign a starting pitcher, but Bauer and the team’s pitching coach, Mickey Callaway, had noted philosophical differences while together on the Indians. Bauer and Callaway have communicated since Callaway left the team to manage the Mets, but it’s unclear if the two have reached a point where they are enthusiastic about working with one another again."

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-free-agent-market-after-dj-lemahieu-deal

[tdawg87 32,001]

[Pancake Bear 1,999]

He's gonna sign with Toronto. Bet on it. It sucks, but I'm used to disappointment with this team not doing what it takes to sign top pitchers. Hopefully we get lucky for a change with whoever we bring in. 

[Dochalo 25,017]

Bauer has gone Twitter silent for 4 days which probably means he's actually about to sign a contract.  

[tdawg87 32,001]

Jeff needs to tweet again.

[Dochalo 25,017]

Just now, tdawg87 said:

Jeff needs to tweet again.