Holy Hell, Trevor Bauer!

[T.G.]

The impression I get (and this is just my own hypothesis) is that Trevor Bauer continues to be a "work in progress" and that he is motivated to be the best possible pitcher he can be.  I imagine that's the case for most guys, but he continues to try new and what might be unconventional methods to maximize his own potential.  I'm thinking that 2020 saw the fruits of his labor. 

I remember reading about how Barry Zito was always reinventing himself, changing his delivery, etc.  I think Bauer is kind of like that - in that he's trying to do everything he can to be a great pitcher and is never quite satisfied with how he's pitching.  He's constantly researching and challenging the status quo of how to do things. 

All of that goes to say that I believe the best of Trevor Bauer may be yet to come and any team that signs him will benefit greatly.  It's just a gut feeling.  It's all I've got.

I like his confidence.  I like the drive he has to improve.  I like his swagger.  AND the dude has proven he can flat out pitch.  Any team would be lucky to have him, IMO.

[Revad]

25 minutes ago, Deek said:

...why wait...?

Are you saying you already hate me and I can say whatever about pitching?  Just as another guy you might want to think about first that first.

[Pancake Bear]

Can someone explain why a guy who has pitched like a top 5 pitcher the last two seasons he wasn't injured (ankle and back issues most of 2019) would take money that would be comparable to what Zack Wheeler got last year? 

Anything less than 5/150 and you're either kidding yourselves or banking too heavily on a down market (possible, but doubtful). 

[Angel Oracle]

1 hour ago, Pancake Bear said:

Can someone explain why a guy who has pitched like a top 5 pitcher the last two seasons he wasn't injured (ankle and back issues most of 2019) would take money that would be comparable to what Zack Wheeler got last year? 

Anything less than 5/150 and you're either kidding yourselves or banking too heavily on a down market (possible, but doubtful). 

The 4 years/$128 million with buyout of team option idea puts him somewhere around $10-15 million short of the $150 million but for only 4 years.

If exercising the option, it’s 5 years/$160 million.

Edited January 13, 2021 by Angel Oracle

[Pancake Bear]

23 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

The 4 years/$128 million with buyout of team option idea puts him somewhere around $10-15 million short of the $150 million but for only 4 years.

If exercising the option, it’s 5 years/$160 million.

Per Fletcher, iirc, players don't really care about team options. It's mostly a benefit to the team. What I'm saying is Bauer almost certainly laughs off anything less than 150 guaranteed. I feel like 200 is a strong possibility. And why not?

Compare his last 90 starts going into free agency to Cole and Stras - this is *including* an awful 2019 when basically the whole season was meh because of injuries. He still compares really favorably over that time to two guys who got 7 and 9 years at 30+m aav. 

I feel like we're putting too much emphasis on 2019, but if it was due to injury, he's probably a lot closer to 2018 and, to some degree, 2020. If that's the case, he's probably worth *at least* 32-35 for 6 (192-210m total). 

Maybe the Angels can't afford that, but if so we need to stop crying about not being able to get an ace. 

[greginpsca]

At this point, i don't give 2 shits how much money Bauer gets. I know he will sign with some other team, because he does not fit into the Angels budget. And no, Arte is not going to be busting his budget. Not with the current unknown baseball economics. And with the money needed for the stadium improvements in the near future.  Ain't happening McGee!  They need to get 2 affordable starting pitchers  that can keep the team in the game for 5-6 innings consistently. Then add affordable , catcher, & rp:  and if there is still room in the budget, get a 4th of'er who can play all 3 of spots. And try to keep some money for a possible trade deadline deal. Because we have little payroll flexibility [ again ] we can't have Champagne with a Ripple budget. Hell, i am  not sure we even have the money left to even fill the holes i just addressed.

[Pancake Bear]

26 minutes ago, greginpsca said:

At this point, i don't give 2 shits how much money Bauer gets. I know he will sign with some other team, because he does not fit into the Angels budget. And no, Arte is not going to be busting his budget. Not with the current unknown baseball economics. And with the money needed for the stadium improvements in the near future.  Ain't happening McGee!  They need to get 2 affordable starting pitchers  that can keep the team in the game for 5-6 innings consistently. Then add affordable , catcher, & rp:  and if there is still room in the budget, get a 4th of'er who can play all 3 of spots. And try to keep some money for a possible trade deadline deal. Because we have little payroll flexibility [ again ] we can't have Champagne with a Ripple budget. Hell, i am  not sure we even have the money left to even fill the holes i just addressed.

Disagree strongly.

They don't *need* two starting pitchers. They could use two - so could most teams - but it isn't a need.

They don't *need* a catcher.

They definitely don't need a fourth outfielder. That's a luxury.

What they *need* is a legit TOR pitcher. They haven't had that in years. They won't be successful until that changes. That's something worth overspending for. We were willing to overspend for one last season, nothing should have changed this year.

[Junkballer]

I get the sense that AAV is very important to Bauer and he has never to my knowledge said anything about term of contract (other than the one-year stuff).  It would be interesting to see how he would respond to a 3year/40m-ish AAV offer backloaded like 30m/40m/50m.  With anyone else in his position it would be a ridiculous thought, as he would be leaving a lot of money on the table if injury or performance dropoff precluded a subsequent large contract at age 32, however, he obviously is a different kind of guy.  From his one-year contract musings, his choice of agent, a tunnel vision kind of self assurance, he may think differently about term than conventional wisdom would hold.  A high AAV contract satisfies the perceived need to one-up Gerrit Cole in one form being that theres no way he can one-up him in a single contract.  The idea sound a lot more like something the Dodgers would do than the Angels, but it does take a lot of risk off the board albeit at a high price.    Its probably completely unrealistic not only on his side but it would peg the Angels as the CBT threshold for 3 years, but he just strikes me as someone who might do the seemingly unwise thing if it resonates with his own perspective and it intrigues me whether it is something he would consider by the Angels or another team.

[Hubs]

I've said 6/180 in the past, and I'm really pro Bauer. He's the Ace they need.

But if it's 5/160, That's a bit more per year, but still ok. If it's 6/192 or 7/224 thats a lot. But the Angels can do it.

But really I think if the Angels are going to 6 man rotation, then I don't think he fits, as he wants to go every 4 days. So that's my thoughts this week.

Now I'm kind of thinking I want Sonny Gray, and a lower tier FA Pitcher like Richards or Walker, plus Realmuto. (2/14 was the projected deal for both Richards and Walker, and Gray makes 10 ish, meaning you have to get a small discount on Realmuto's first two seasons. (Maybe 18/22/24/26/28/3M Buyout of a 28M option),

Over Bauer (27/30/32/32/35/37), Musgrove (4) and Suzuki (4).

[Pancake Bear]

27 minutes ago, Junkballer said:

I get the sense that AAV is very important to Bauer and he has never to my knowledge said anything about term of contract (other than the one-year stuff).  It would be interesting to see how he would respond to a 3year/40m-ish AAV offer backloaded like 30m/40m/50m.  With anyone else in his position it would be a ridiculous thought, as he would be leaving a lot of money on the table if injury or performance dropoff precluded a subsequent large contract at age 32, however, he obviously is a different kind of guy.  From his one-year contract musings, his choice of agent, a tunnel vision kind of self assurance, he may think differently about term than conventional wisdom would hold.  A high AAV contract satisfies the perceived need to one-up Gerrit Cole in one form being that theres no way he can one-up him in a single contract.  The idea sound a lot more like something the Dodgers would do than the Angels, but it does take a lot of risk off the board albeit at a high price.    Its probably completely unrealistic not only on his side but it would peg the Angels as the CBT threshold for 3 years, but he just strikes me as someone who might do the seemingly unwise thing if it resonates with his own perspective and it intrigues me whether it is something he would consider by the Angels or another team.

He has talked about that in the past - one of the reasons he played with the idea of one year contracts is maximizing value. Thing of it is, it's like trading Trout: I don't think you could make value. Like, what would a 7 WAR season (being conservative) from Trout be worth on a one year? 50m? More? At some point, it just isn't worth it with your budget. In the same way, I'm not sure it makes sense for teams to go that high on a short term deal. More importantly, I don't know that the Angels are a team that could go that route. If they somehow manage to sign him (I remain cynical), it'll be hard enough on a 5-6 year deal.

[Pancake Bear]

16 minutes ago, Hubs said:

But really I think if the Angels are going to 6 man rotation, then I don't think he fits, as he wants to go every 4 days. So that's my thoughts this week.

I mean, I'm not sure it would be harder for the Angels than any other team. And if we're already running what is effectively a five man rotation while throwing Ohtani in once a week, I'm not sure that isn't easier for us than other teams since we're already screwing with the whole thing. 

That's assuming anyone would actually go for the every four days scheme, which is not at all certain. 

[Hubs]

41 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

I mean, I'm not sure it would be harder for the Angels than any other team. And if we're already running what is effectively a five man rotation while throwing Ohtani in once a week, I'm not sure that isn't easier for us than other teams since we're already screwing with the whole thing. 

That's assuming anyone would actually go for the every four days scheme, which is not at all certain. 

I actually ran a simulation and it’s very difficult to manage Bauer on three days rest and Ohtani on six. You often have to have a spot starter because no one from the regular rotation rest guys will be available.
 

You can maneuver it so that Bauer doesn’t often pitch on Sunday, bumping Ohtani I assume but with days off he’s often gonna go on 4 days rest just so the other three or four guys get starts on somewhat consistent rest.

[Pancake Bear]

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

I actually ran a simulation and it’s very difficult to manage Bauer on three days rest and Ohtani on six. You often have to have a spot starter because no one from the regular rotation rest guys will be available.
 

You can maneuver it so that Bauer doesn’t often pitch on Sunday, bumping Ohtani I assume but with days off he’s often gonna go on 4 days rest just so the other three or four guys get starts on somewhat consistent rest.

Easier to do then if your extra guy is someone like Barria, or maybe Canning - a swing man type. 

Also, I assume. Bauer is fine going five now and then. I don't think he means he must always pitch every time on four days rest. 

[Lou]

31 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Easier to do then if your extra guy is someone like Barria, or maybe Canning - a swing man type. 

Also, I assume. Bauer is fine going five now and then. I don't think he means he must always pitch every time on four days rest. 

Since when is Canning a swing man?

[Revad]

17 minutes ago, Lou said:

Since when is Canning a swing man?

Oh that’s when we have enough pitch for Canning to serve as a 5 or 6.  We wouldn’t want to be thinking be might be #2 or3.

[Lou]

6 minutes ago, Revad said:

Oh that’s when we have enough pitch for Canning to serve as a 5 or 6.  We wouldn’t want to be thinking be might be #2 or3.

Our staff isn't going to be good enough where he is a 5 or 6. 

FYI, he had an ERA of 3.99 last year.

[Pancake Bear]

34 minutes ago, Lou said:

Since when is Canning a swing man?

Probably isn't. That's why I said maybe. Reason being he's still young and could get pushed into that role, theoretically. Unlikely, but just spitballing. 

[Hubs]

Canning will be the best of the three starters that finished the season in the rotation for the Angels in 2020 and are still Projected to be in the rotation. Meaning he’ll be better than Bundy and Heaney. If not in 2021, then def in 2022. 

I think he’s a future Ace. Garrett Richards was the closest thing we had to an Ace before his Injury since Weaver’s peak. He also struggled a bit in his first seasons before his excellent 2014. Canning has been better and has started more games than Richards did in 2011-2013.

I can’t believe Richards is almost 33. 

Anyway, my point is canning is not a swing man and he won’t be bumped out of the rotation. 

[Cosmo_Kramer]

16 hours ago, Hubs said:

Canning will be the best of the three starters that finished the season in the rotation for the Angels in 2020 and are still Projected to be in the rotation. Meaning he’ll be better than Bundy and Heaney. If not in 2021, then def in 2022. 

I think he’s a future Ace. Garrett Richards was the closest thing we had to an Ace before his Injury since Weaver’s peak. He also struggled a bit in his first seasons before his excellent 2014. Canning has been better and has started more games than Richards did in 2011-2013.

I can’t believe Richards is almost 33. 

Anyway, my point is canning is not a swing man and he won’t be bumped out of the rotation. 

Canning's elbow could be worrying, but agreed on upside. His stuff is legit.

Here are the 20 starters with the lowest contact% over the last two seasons. Min 120 innings.

1-5. Snell, Castillo, Cole, Clevinger, DeGrom

6-10. Giolito, Bieber, Maeda, Verlander, Scherzer

11-15. Ray, Lamet, Sale, Carrasco, Flaherty

16-20. Gausman, Canning, Darvish, Strasburg, Corbin

Gray is 26, and Bauer is 27

[Tank]

On 1/12/2021 at 3:47 PM, Revad said:

You folks are going really hate me in a month I swear.  Where’s the fucking pitching?

i don't think it's going to take quite that long.

[Tank]

19 hours ago, Lou said:

Since when is Canning a swing man?

you obviously haven't seen him dance.

[Pancake Bear]

26 minutes ago, Cosmo_Kramer said:

Canning's elbow could be worrying, but agreed on upside. His stuff is legit.

Here are the 20 starters with the lowest contact% over the last two seasons. Min 120 innings.

1-5. Snell, Castillo, Cole, Clevinger, DeGrom

6-10. Giolito, Bieber, Maeda, Verlander, Scherzer

11-15. Ray, Lamet, Sale, Carrasco, Flaherty

16-20. Gausman, Canning, Darvish, Strasburg, Corbin

Gray is 26, and Bauer is 27

Bauer you have to account for his injuries in 2019. I'd be curious to see how he compared just in 2020 and just in 2018 (or 2018-20).

[Cosmo_Kramer]

1 hour ago, Pancake Bear said:

Bauer you have to account for his injuries in 2019. I'd be curious to see how he compared just in 2020 and just in 2018 (or 2018-20).

Not really since it's contact%.

2018-2020 15th among qualified starters

2019-2020 14th among qualified starters

2020 14th among qualified starters

[Angel Oracle]

19 hours ago, Hubs said:

Canning will be the best of the three starters that finished the season in the rotation for the Angels in 2020 and are still Projected to be in the rotation. Meaning he’ll be better than Bundy and Heaney. If not in 2021, then def in 2022. 

I think he’s a future Ace. Garrett Richards was the closest thing we had to an Ace before his Injury since Weaver’s peak. He also struggled a bit in his first seasons before his excellent 2014. Canning has been better and has started more games than Richards did in 2011-2013.

I can’t believe Richards is almost 33. 

Anyway, my point is canning is not a swing man and he won’t be bumped out of the rotation. 

Previous health concerns are the one thing in the way.

I’ll feel more secure if he can pitch at least 150 innings this season.

[Pancake Bear]

51 minutes ago, Cosmo_Kramer said:

Not really since it's contact%.

2018-2020 15th among qualified starters

2019-2020 14th among qualified starters

2020 14th among qualified starters

Interesting that that one is unchanged despite the results being night and day different from 2019 vs 2018 and 2020.