The official (slightly early) off season discussion thread. Let's hear your plan.

[Vlad27Trout27]

Looks like Sunny Gray is on the Market

How about Cozart for Gray? 

Both guys coming off struggling years,  Gray pitching in Anaheim could be benefactor for him, While playing in the east and Yankee stadium could help Cozart and the yanks need a SS. 

 

[ten ocho recon scout]

On 10/11/2018 at 4:30 AM, Dochalo said:

Machado.  Harper. Machado. Harper.  Machado. Harper.  

It. Not. Happening.  

It is absolutely insane to think that Arte is going to have three players totaling 90+ mil for the next three years.  

Next year, the Nats are going to pay Scherzer 42.1 mil.  The also lumped a huge chunk of salary allocation for Strasburg to next year as well.  38.3 mil but then it goes back to 25 mil and then down to 15m.  

The red sox will be giving 31m to david price over the next 4 years.  And 23.75 m to JDM over the next two then 19.35 in 2021. 

the yankees 25m to Stanton, 22m to Tanaka, 21.4m to Ellsbury.  

the Dogs 34.5 to Kershaw (if he doesn't opt out), 21.75 to kemp, 19.33 to Jansen.  

not only is it not happening, it can't happen and you don't want it to happen.  If Trout and Simmons sign extensions, do you really think that this would happen in 2021?  

Trout 40m
Simmons 20m
Pujols 30m
Harper/Machado 30m
Upton 23m.  

That's 143m for five players. 

For the love of everything decent and holy let's be reasonable.  Even without the 30m from Machado or Harper, that's still 113m for 4 players.  That's still a shit ton.  

 

 

 

This.

Its why i shake my head at people who call arte cheap. 

Hes spent a ton. Its just that a ton of it was stupid.

[krAbs]

6 hours ago, Turd Ferguson said:

What about Sonny Gray? Yankees want to deal him. Might be a buy-low opportunity. 

Sonny Gray might be a super interesting option. Fangraphs has an article about how the Yankee's no-fastball approach may be hurting him:
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-yankees-no-fastball-approach-might-be-breaking-sonny-gray/

More:
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-the-cubs-and-yankees-should-swap-tyler-chatwood-and-sonny-gray/

Also, Fangraphs appears to be showing that his velocity hasn't noticeably dropped or anything:
https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=12768&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2016&end=2018&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

I can't seem to get fangraphs to spit out his spin rate over the last few years, but I imagine that graph would look similar to his velocity graph. He seems like a solid bounce-back contender. The downside is, I'm sure every other team is just as aware of this, so we might end up in a bidding war anyways.

[krAbs]

Someone should do a better job with this (and maybe make it into its own thread), but....

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q7dlNaSqB4vip6QD88MCaahpPjiZrS7dgOam_TrElLg/edit#gid=0

^^This is Jeff's payroll spreadsheet. Two things pop out imediatly: 1. we have about 50 million dollars burning a hole in our pocket. 2. we have a lot of holes. Point number 2 is more clear here:

http://losangeles.angels.mlb.com/team/depth_chart/?c_id=ana

At a glance, I don't think we should worry too much about LF, CF, SS, DH, C (there are better catchers out there, but the cost-benefit analysis of picking one up makes it kind of feel like a fools errand), RP (though we can always add more), and ~3 SP (its so hard to say - we have at least 5 starters, and Canning is coming in hot, but who knows how long any of them will last).

https://www.mlb.com/news/2019-mlb-free-agents/c-293292274

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=ana

That's the list of free agents available, and our top propsects with MLB estimated ETA (all per mlb.com). We can use a mix of them to plug holes, along with a trade targets. Each of these options has inherent risk, obviously.

RF: This position is awkward for two reasons. 1, its hard to say we should totally abandon Calhoun to be a 4th outfielder - but, that kind of feels like where we are. 2, our OF in the minors is stacked. We want to compete now, so we want SOMEONE in there, but it may make sense to grab a shorter contract here. Its also not crazy to think that either Hermosillo can contribute here, or Marsh can come up a bit early and help out here. Obviously that's a lot of pressure for what would be a young player, but we DO have internal options here. I would like to see Marsh/Hermosillo as the full time RF by the end of the year, but I don't know what that means for the first half.

3B: I wish ward didn't completely suck here last year. This would have been much easier. Its probably not totally crazy to hope that a combination of Ward and Cozart can fill in for this position, but half a player plus half a player does not make for a full time position player. Eduardo Escobar may be the best FA fit here, but per sportrac, that could cost us close to 14 million. Maybe its worth the investment, but its hard to say. I would like to see Ward as the full time 3B by the end of the year, but I don't know what that means for the first half.

2B: Fletcher has actually done really well here over the last year, and kind of feels like he is playing over his head. Also, I am more okay with having a defense first position here, so I'm not totally heart broken if we don't have a 2B who can mash. Additionally, Jones is due to hit the majors at 2b this year. Who knows how he will be, but I don't think its too unreasonable to hope that one of them will be able to play it at a competent level. That being said, there are options out there, and there is plenty of room to improve. We certainly are going to have trouble if we have a black hole here. I would like to see Jones as the full time 3B by the end of the year, but I don't know what that means for the first half.

1B: JMF is our only real option here (assuming Pujols's playtime continues to drop, which is a best case scenario). I'm not really blown away by his .267 BA and .697 OPS from last year, or his -0.1 dWAR. I doubt that he is the solution here. Thais might be, though. He is due to hit the majors this next year, and may be ready to contribute. But, I'm not convinced he is ready for a full time gig. This is another place we should really consider filling in via trade or FA. I would like to see Thaiss as the full time 3B by the end of the year, but I don't know what that means for the first half.

SP: Who the hell knows what to do here. Sign an ace and a workhorse, bring up Canning, and hope we can have 5 solid arms through the year. IDK WTF has happened to our starting pitching over the last few years or why no one can stay healthy, so I don't have any good thoughts here. I have no problem spending about 35 million here. But, its worth noting, I believe a decent amount of our flexibility here may be eaten up by arbitration agreements. Not sure how many we have going into next year, though. This is one of those points where the Pujols contract really is frustrating...

[Angel Oracle]

Thaiss has been a bit of a disappointment, for a guy drafted 2.5 years ago in the first round from an elite ACC baseball program.

Even Cron got to the bigs in pretty much the same timeframe. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

@krAbs If you think the Angels have $50M, you are looking at the wrong column. 

I will say it again.

The Angels are more concerned with their actual payroll than the luxury tax number because their actual payroll is the bigger number. 

Carry on....

[hangin n wangin]

5 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Thaiss has been a bit of a disappointment, for a guy drafted 2.5 years ago in the first round from an elite ACC baseball program.

Even Cron got to the bigs in pretty much the same timeframe. 

He’s going to suck, isn’t he? 

And we will resign Pujols to ten more years.

[TroutField]

Thinking about Jake Lamb from the D-backs. They just signed Escobar to a 3 year deal to presumably play 3rd. That would be a huge upgrade at 3rd. Ward could then be packaged with a couple of other prospects for a starter or catcher. 

[IheartLA]

The actual payroll numbers are coming directly out of Arte's pocket so yes they do matter. I applaud Arte, he's always spent money to contend, the dude really loves baseball and takes pride in his team.

I don't expect an owner to spend more than what the team generates in revenue, that's kind of over the top and unfair. If he's willing to spend close to that amount I don't any fan can reasonably expect more from any owner.

[IheartLA]

I think Eppler needs to bring in a couple of starting pitchers like Happ, Ryu, or Morton. We won't be in the market for Keuchel, Corbin, or anyone costing more than say $12M/year. I think hitting wise we need a catcher, obviously Realmuto would be best but I would be ok with signing someone like Suzuki for ~$5M. Give Fletcher 2B and if he can't do it then call up Rengifo.

The bullpen already has tons of competition with Cole, Noe, JC, Bedrosian, Alvarez, Buttrey, Robles, Anderson, Parker. I don't think you need to spend on the BP, you can find arms anywhere, we already have a decent foundation. 

I would realistically go into ST with double the amount of arms we think we need for the rotation after what happened this year. If you include Canning, Suarez in the minors, Meyer+Trop DL then ~12 total including or so that could potentially start. Skaggs, Shoe, Heaney, Barria, Pena + 2 FA

[Second Base]

I know I've stated what I would do in this fantasy of a scenario, but I'd like to share what it looks to me like the Angels will actually do this winter. Not overly creative, but I think it carries a degree of likelihood.

1. Sign Gio Gonzalez 2 years 20 million and an option for a third year at 12 million with a 2 million dollar buyout. 

2. Sign Nathan Eovaldi 3 years 36 million plus an option for a fourth year at 15 million with a 2 million dollar buyout. 

3. Sign Matt Adams 1 year 3 million

4. Sign Adam Warren 1 year 3 million 

5. Sign David Phelps 1 year 2 million 

6. Sign Junichi Tazawa 1 year 1 million. 

Basically, the rotation will be set with Skaggs, Heaney, Barria, Eovaldi and Gonzalez, the offense will be largely the same except Adams will take a lot of AB's away from Albert, particularly in the early going. And as far as the bullpen goes, Buttrey, Parker, Robles, Pena and Alvarez will have their spots, but the final three spots in the pen will be up for grabs between Justin Anderson, Williams Jerez, Jake Jewell, Cam Bedrosian, Taylor Cole, Matt Shoemaker, Alex Meyer, JC Ramirez, Adam Warren, David Phelps and Junichi Tazawa. 

Just an outside guess, Anderson, Jerez, Jewell and Cole will move down to AAA because they have options, Bedrosian won't rediscover the missing velocity and will be let go, Meyers and Ramirez won't be ready for the start of the year and thus end up on the DL and the team will go with Shoemaker, Warren and Phelps to round out then pen, giving Ausmus a variety of multi-inning options at his disposal as well as the ability to go with a bullpen game a couple, times a month should a starter need additional rest.

[totdprods]

I’d be perfectly happy with the plan @Scotty@AW just posted. It’s very Epper too.

All of those assets have enough hope to put up a good season, enough to get us in contention. We don’t lose any prospects. We can bump folks aside for youth easily. Any of those guys could be flipped at the deadline if need be.

[arch stanton]

I like those names but I don't see Eovaldi escaping the AL East. If he doesn't re-up with the Sox it'll be the Yanks. Fun fact. He went to the same HS as Nolan Ryan

[T.G.]

I think Eovaldi has set himself up for a huge pay day.... and depending on how he does in the WS the price could continue to climb.  I can't see the Angels going down this road - even though I'd love to see him in Angel red.

[floplag]

10 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

I know I've stated what I would do in this fantasy of a scenario, but I'd like to share what it looks to me like the Angels will actually do this winter. Not overly creative, but I think it carries a degree of likelihood.

1. Sign Gio Gonzalez 2 years 20 million and an option for a third year at 12 million with a 2 million dollar buyout. 

2. Sign Nathan Eovaldi 3 years 36 million plus an option for a fourth year at 15 million with a 2 million dollar buyout. 

3. Sign Matt Adams 1 year 3 million

4. Sign Adam Warren 1 year 3 million 

5. Sign David Phelps 1 year 2 million 

6. Sign Junichi Tazawa 1 year 1 million. 

Basically, the rotation will be set with Skaggs, Heaney, Barria, Eovaldi and Gonzalez, the offense will be largely the same except Adams will take a lot of AB's away from Albert, particularly in the early going. And as far as the bullpen goes, Buttrey, Parker, Robles, Pena and Alvarez will have their spots, but the final three spots in the pen will be up for grabs between Justin Anderson, Williams Jerez, Jake Jewell, Cam Bedrosian, Taylor Cole, Matt Shoemaker, Alex Meyer, JC Ramirez, Adam Warren, David Phelps and Junichi Tazawa. 

Just an outside guess, Anderson, Jerez, Jewell and Cole will move down to AAA because they have options, Bedrosian won't rediscover the missing velocity and will be let go, Meyers and Ramirez won't be ready for the start of the year and thus end up on the DL and the team will go with Shoemaker, Warren and Phelps to round out then pen, giving Ausmus a variety of multi-inning options at his disposal as well as the ability to go with a bullpen game a couple, times a month should a starter need additional rest.

I think you are reaching at those numbers to assume Gio takes a pay cut for example, hes done nothing to warrant that and made 12 mil last few years.  Eovaldi is going to get paid have made only 2 mil.  If you can get both for 20 youre getting a bargain, i dont see it too many teams needing pitching. 

This is all part of the reason ive always wanted to go the other way but thats moot, its seem clear what the plan is and this is in line with that just not realistic number wise i dont think.   Probably takes 3/36 for both of them at least im guessing which doesnt leave much for the rest.

I hate to be negative but everyone has this 2-3 pitcher plan that they are trying to fit into the 30 mil number that seems to be using favorable numbers for us, and not the players.  I dont see us getting 2 top arms for 20 mil or less.  

[Second Base]

51 minutes ago, floplag said:

I think you are reaching at those numbers to assume Gio takes a pay cut for example, hes done nothing to warrant that and made 12 mil last few years.  Eovaldi is going to get paid have made only 2 mil.  If you can get both for 20 youre getting a bargain, i dont see it too many teams needing pitching. 

This is all part of the reason ive always wanted to go the other way but thats moot, its seem clear what the plan is and this is in line with that just not realistic number wise i dont think.   Probably takes 3/36 for both of them at least im guessing which doesnt leave much for the rest.

I hate to be negative but everyone has this 2-3 pitcher plan that they are trying to fit into the 30 mil number that seems to be using favorable numbers for us, and not the players.  I dont see us getting 2 top arms for 20 mil or less.  

Yeah I guess it all depends on the market.  2/20 with an option at 12 million seems around where Gio gets.  If the option is picked up it basically becomes 3/32.  If you say 3/36, that really is't that far off. 

[floplag]

3 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

Yeah I guess it all depends on the market.  2/20 with an option at 12 million seems around where Gio gets.  If the option is picked up it basically becomes 3/32.  If you say 3/36, that really is't that far off. 

Thing is though youre asking him to take a pay cut over his current 12 hes made the last 3 years, i dont see that happening.  Hes going to be asking for 14/15 likely i would think.  

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

I’d be perfectly happy with the plan @Scotty@AW just posted. It’s very Epper too.

All of those assets have enough hope to put up a good season, enough to get us in contention. We don’t lose any prospects. We can bump folks aside for youth easily. Any of those guys could be flipped at the deadline if need be.

I was really just sticking with the former Yankee theme.  Warren, Phelps, Eovaldi....

But I think that bullpen would excite me.  Buttrey, Robles, Parker are all pretty solid, though as with all relievers, they can be inconsistent.  But adding guys like Felix Pena, Matt Shoemaker, Adam Warren and David Phelps to the bullpen brings a sense of legitimacy to the group.  All four of those guys have experienced success at the major league level and can go multiple innings.  And if JC Ramirez and Alex Meyer return to form, suddenly that's a very dangerous group of pitchers. 

That kind of bullpen depth, with so many multi-inning threats can take a lot of pressure off of a rotation.  If they don't have it that day and can only go 3-4 innings, we can absorb that. 

[Second Base]

5 minutes ago, floplag said:

Thing is though youre asking him to take a pay cut over his current 12 hes made the last 3 years, i dont see that happening.  Hes going to be asking for 14/15 likely i would think.  

That's just what I think the market will dictate.  Lots of guys that hit free agency last year only got a fraction of what they expected.  There was even talk of collusion among the owners. I think it's simply the market correcting itself.  Teams are putting more emphasis than ever on building from within, which puts fewer suitors for free agency out there.  That and we see a ton of teams rebuilding right now, which effectively removes like 1/3 of the league from the bidding process. 

I don't think free agents are going to be paid as much anymore, not unless they're in the Harper/Machado echelon.  The competition just won't be there and competition is what drives those prices up. 

[floplag]

Just now, Scotty@AW said:

That's just what I think the market will dictate.  Lots of guys that hit free agency last year only got a fraction of what they expected.  There was even talk of collusion among the owners. I think it's simply the market correcting itself.  Teams are putting more emphasis than ever on building from within, which puts fewer suitors for free agency out there.  That and we see a ton of teams rebuilding right now, which effectively removes like 1.3 of the league from the bidding process. 

I don't think free agents are going to be paid as much anymore, not unless they're in the Harper/Machado echelon. 

Perhaps, but as many here will point out the good ones still got paid.  not sure i wholly believe that position but the tier one guys didnt get much less than projected, it was the rest that seemed to.
Well see.
My fear is that we blow our wad on arms and have nothing left for bats, which seems likely given the sound bites to date. 

[Second Base]

2 minutes ago, floplag said:

Perhaps, but as many here will point out the good ones still got paid.  not sure i wholly believe that position but the tier one guys didnt get much less than projected, it was the rest that seemed to.
Well see.
My fear is that we blow our wad on arms and have nothing left for bats, which seems likely given the sound bites to date. 

That's almost a guarantee.  I think this team needs offense more than it needs pitching, but I get the feeling the Angels will be spending on pitching a lot more than they'll spend on offense.  They've said as much to the media so far.  I think it's a fair assumption that we'll see the Angels trade for a menial catcher and  and sign Matt Adams to play some 1B, and that's about it.  The offense needs to improve more than that in my opinion, but the professionals disagree with me. 

And as for the market, the vast majority of players didn't get paid because competition just wasn't there.  The teams that are competing have better, deeper rosters and thus aren't spending in free agency like they used to.  And the teams that are rebuilding obviously aren't venturing into free agency as aggressively because they want to cut costs and stockpile prospects. There's a very small contingent of teams that are still trying to compete, have an opening and have the money to spend. 

[floplag]

3 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

That's almost a guarantee.  I think this team needs offense more than it needs pitching, but I get the feeling the Angels will be spending on pitching a lot more than they'll spend on offense.  They've said as much to the media so far.  I think it's a fair assumption that we'll see the Angels trade for a menial catcher and  and sign Matt Adams to play some 1B, and that's about it.  The offense needs to improve more than that in my opinion, but the professionals disagree with me. 

And as for the market, the vast majority of players didn't get paid because competition just wasn't there.  The teams that are competing have better, deeper rosters and thus aren't spending in free agency like they used to.  And the teams that are rebuilding obviously aren't venturing into free agency as aggressively because they want to cut costs and stockpile prospects. There's a very small contingent of teams that are still trying to compete, have an opening and have the money to spend. 

Yes, thats whats being said, im kinda hoping thats the old Anaheim two-step and they are hiding the true intention... but i doubt it    
2019 as of now will be an upgraded rotation with basically the same lineup as 2018 with a few different names in the secondary roles.

[Stradling]

Yes the top guys got paid, Gio Gonzales is not a top guy.  He is exactly what Lance Lynn and guys like that are/were.  He might get a 2 year $20 million deal, but not much more. He’s also a guy that might be stuck with a 1 year $12 million deal.  I like him as a pitcher, but the market after last year makes him an interesting one to watch this off season.  

Evoldi on the other hand, being that he is going into his age 29 season and throws 100 MPH, and has been pretty good in the post season.  There might be some sticker shock.

[Angel Oracle]

On ‎10‎/‎12‎/‎2018 at 10:56 AM, Vlad27Trout27 said:

Looks like Sunny Gray is on the Market

How about Cozart for Gray? 

Both guys coming off struggling years,  Gray pitching in Anaheim could be benefactor for him, While playing in the east and Yankee stadium could help Cozart and the yanks need a SS. 

 

There's only room for ONE Sunny here.

[greginpsca]

12 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

I know I've stated what I would do in this fantasy of a scenario, but I'd like to share what it looks to me like the Angels will actually do this winter. Not overly creative, but I think it carries a degree of likelihood.

1. Sign Gio Gonzalez 2 years 20 million and an option for a third year at 12 million with a 2 million dollar buyout. 

2. Sign Nathan Eovaldi 3 years 36 million plus an option for a fourth year at 15 million with a 2 million dollar buyout. 

3. Sign Matt Adams 1 year 3 million

4. Sign Adam Warren 1 year 3 million 

5. Sign David Phelps 1 year 2 million 

6. Sign Junichi Tazawa 1 year 1 million. 

Basically, the rotation will be set with Skaggs, Heaney, Barria, Eovaldi and Gonzalez, the offense will be largely the same except Adams will take a lot of AB's away from Albert, particularly in the early going. And as far as the bullpen goes, Buttrey, Parker, Robles, Pena and Alvarez will have their spots, but the final three spots in the pen will be up for grabs between Justin Anderson, Williams Jerez, Jake Jewell, Cam Bedrosian, Taylor Cole, Matt Shoemaker, Alex Meyer, JC Ramirez, Adam Warren, David Phelps and Junichi Tazawa. 

Just an outside guess, Anderson, Jerez, Jewell and Cole will move down to AAA because they have options, Bedrosian won't rediscover the missing velocity and will be let go, Meyers and Ramirez won't be ready for the start of the year and thus end up on the DL and the team will go with Shoemaker, Warren and Phelps to round out then pen, giving Ausmus a variety of multi-inning options at his disposal as well as the ability to go with a bullpen game a couple, times a month should a starter need additional rest.

I wouldn’t count on Ramirez or Meyer at all. If they are able to contribute, then that is the cherry on top. Ramirez is less than a year out from surgery. Meyer’s injury was much more serious. The kind of injury that can easily be a career ending type.