The official (slightly early) off season discussion thread. Let's hear your plan.

[totdprods]

2 hours ago, TroutField said:

If they singed Eovaldi and traded for Sonny Gray and then traded for a solid young catcher(Realmuto) I may get slightly excited for next season.

Farm would take quite the hit, but that’s a significant addition of good, young, and fairly controlled players to form a pretty solid core the next couple seasons. Not terribly unreleastic either. 

Skaggs, Eovaldi, Heaney, Gray, Barria

Simmons, Realmuto, Trout, Upton, Ohtani, Pujols, Cozart, Calhoun, Fletcher

[TroutField]

3 hours ago, totdprods said:

Farm would take quite the hit, but that’s a significant addition of good, young, and fairly controlled players to form a pretty solid core the next couple seasons. Not terribly unreleastic either. 

Skaggs, Eovaldi, Heaney, Gray, Barria

Simmons, Realmuto, Trout, Upton, Ohtani, Pujols, Cozart, Calhoun, Fletcher

I disagree. I don’t think the Yankees are going to want much back for Gray other than salary relief and a C prospect. Realmuto won’t come cheap but if it’s a package of Marsh, Suarez, and another prospect you have to do it, it makes us a lot better without losing your best prospects. If the price is adell or Canning you definitely move on.

[totdprods]

6 hours ago, TroutField said:

I disagree. I don’t think the Yankees are going to want much back for Gray other than salary relief and a C prospect. Realmuto won’t come cheap but if it’s a package of Marsh, Suarez, and another prospect you have to do it, it makes us a lot better without losing your best prospects. If the price is adell or Canning you definitely move on.

Gray is going to cost more than that. He’s only a year removed from a good season, (and has had a decent career), they don’t *have* to move him, and other teams will certainly pay more than that.

He’ll cost at least one top 10, or two from the top 15ish. 

Coupled with the Realmuto trade, you’re probably moving 3 or 4 Top 10 guys for players who walk in two years. That’s a little risky, but worth it if the Angels are truly in a mode to win before Trout walks. 

[TroutField]

2 hours ago, totdprods said:

Gray is going to cost more than that. He’s only a year removed from a good season, (and has had a decent career), they don’t *have* to move him, and other teams will certainly pay more than that.

He’ll cost at least one top 10, or two from the top 15ish. 

Coupled with the Realmuto trade, you’re probably moving 3 or 4 Top 10 guys for players who walk in two years. That’s a little risky, but worth it if the Angels are truly in a mode to win before Trout walks. 

You could be right, I see Gray not being worth as much after the Yankees pretty much publicly stating he wouldn’t be a yankee next season. But that’s just my opinion 

[totdprods]

2 minutes ago, TroutField said:

You could be right, I see Gray not being worth as much after the Yankees pretty much publicly stating he wouldn’t be a yankee next season. But that’s just my opinion 

I don’t necessarily disagree that his true value might be salary relief and a lower-ranked prospect, but his upside, age, control, and track record almost guarantee an acquiring team will be willing to pay more than that.

The Yankees gave up a pretty good haul for him in the middle of a good season, but he was pretty mediocre the year prior.

Pitching is just never really cheap.

Also, I’m personally not really convinced the Angels are going to make a big push just to win in ‘19-‘20 ahead of Trout’s contract expiring. I think they’re operating on a longer timeline, one which Trout may or may not be a part of it, and while I think they will still make some effort to win, it won’t  come too much at the expense of 2020+.

They can afford to deal an infielder, maybe Suarez depending on their other moves, and then maybe one corner infielder or outfielder at a max without hurting the future too much. 

[Hubs]

7 hours ago, totdprods said:

Gray is going to cost more than that. He’s only a year removed from a good season, (and has had a decent career), they don’t *have* to move him, and other teams will certainly pay more than that.

He’ll cost at least one top 10, or two from the top 15ish. 

Coupled with the Realmuto trade, you’re probably moving 3 or 4 Top 10 guys for players who walk in two years. That’s a little risky, but worth it if the Angels are truly in a mode to win before Trout walks. 

Gray will be traded for prospects so they can free up the cash. Someone like Castillo and maybe Hermosillio.

Realmuto is going to cost Marsh/Adams, Suarez, and maybe Thaiss/Maitan. I still do that though.

[Angel Oracle]

Sobering fact about Realmuto: his 2015-2017 home OPS = sub .700.    Yes, Marlins Park is a pitchers' park with 344/386/407/393/335 dimensions.

But, that is just plain bad in ANY home park!   And Angel Stadium isn't a bed of roses either.

No thank you!   

[floplag]

14 hours ago, TroutField said:

I disagree. I don’t think the Yankees are going to want much back for Gray other than salary relief and a C prospect. Realmuto won’t come cheap but if it’s a package of Marsh, Suarez, and another prospect you have to do it, it makes us a lot better without losing your best prospects. If the price is adell or Canning you definitely move on.

To me its not that simple
If he costs us 9 mil, and another free agent only costs us 10-12, unless he is FAR better than the other guy it isnt worth losing anyone that could be of value in another deal over a couple mil.  
Unless they are literally throw aways, which i doubt, it dont see the benefit. 

[totdprods]

18 hours ago, Hubs said:

Gray will be traded for prospects so they can free up the cash. Someone like Castillo and maybe Hermosillio.

Realmuto is going to cost Marsh/Adams, Suarez, and maybe Thaiss/Maitan. I still do that though.

Even with freeing up cash, he’s going to draw at least one legitimate prospect. The upside is too good for Gray. Herm and Castillo wouldn’t be enough.

[Hubs]

21 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Sobering fact about Realmuto: his 2015-2017 home OPS = sub .700.    Yes, Marlins Park is a pitchers' park with 344/386/407/393/335 dimensions.

But, that is just plain bad in ANY home park!   And Angel Stadium isn't a bed of roses either.

No thank you!   

Last year it was .773 at Marlins Park. And 1.400 in Dodgers Stadium (which profiles the closest to Angels Stadium)  and 1.049 in his career there.

Our catchers have been basically horrible offensively for the entirety of the Mike Scioscia era, with the exception of Napoli for a little while (though he didn't hit like he did later in his career while he was catching in Anaheim), and a few years of Chris Iannetta and Bengie Molina's.

A top hitting catcher is a dream for this lineup, because with uncertainty in hitting from four other spots, it would be nice to take care of this one.

[Second Base]

3 hours ago, totdprods said:

Even with freeing up cash, he’s going to draw at least one legitimate prospect. The upside is too good for Gray. Herm and Castillo wouldn’t be enough.

With the sheer number of options available, I wouldn't be interested in paying that for Sonny Gray.  If you figure he costs 9 million plus prospects and had an ERA around 5.00 last year, there are plentiful options that are more favorable.  

[Pancake Bear]

28 minutes ago, Second Base said:

With the sheer number of options available, I wouldn't be interested in paying that for Sonny Gray.  If you figure he costs 9 million plus prospects and had an ERA around 5.00 last year, there are plentiful options that are more favorable.  

Then you would be mistaken. 

Sonny Gray 2018 splits:

Home: 59 ip; 6.98 ERA

Away: 71 ip; 3.17 ERA

 

1st half: 90 ip; 5.46 ERA

Second half: 39 ip; 3.63 ERA

 

Career ERA: 3.66

 

He seems to struggle a bit in Yankee stadium, but so do a lot of guys. Might be something another team could work with. Stuff is legit, though. Saying no thanks is extremely short-sighted. 

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Sean-Regan said:

Then you would be mistaken. 

Sonny Gray 2018 splits:

Home: 59 ip; 6.98 ERA

Away: 71 ip; 3.17 ERA

 

1st half: 90 ip; 5.46 ERA

Second half: 39 ip; 3.63 ERA

 

Career ERA: 3.66

 

He seems to struggle a bit in Yankee stadium, but so do a lot of guys. Might be something another team could work with. Stuff is legit, though. Saying no thanks is extremely short-sighted. 

And saying yes immediately citing road splits is surface level short-sighted. So for one year of Sonny Gray, you're looking at 9 million, plus two prospects.  For one year of Gio Gonzalez, who has had a better career than Gray, you're looking at 10 million.....no prospects owed.  The better value is Gio.  Go ahead and add Happ, Eovaldi, Sabathia, Ryu, Hamels and Pomeranz as a list of pitchers who have equal or better value when you consider they don't cost a single prospect. 

I'm not saying Sonny Gray won't be a good pitcher.  I'm saying Sonny Gray has a metric ton of substitutes on this market that can be acquired without sacrificing prospects. 

 

[GrittyVeterans]

Yeah, and Gio is 5 years older than Gray. And we all know we have had so much success acquiring old players...

[Pancake Bear]

6 hours ago, Second Base said:

And saying yes immediately citing road splits is surface level short-sighted. So for one year of Sonny Gray, you're looking at 9 million, plus two prospects.  For one year of Gio Gonzalez, who has had a better career than Gray, you're looking at 10 million.....no prospects owed.  The better value is Gio.  Go ahead and add Happ, Eovaldi, Sabathia, Ryu, Hamels and Pomeranz as a list of pitchers who have equal or better value when you consider they don't cost a single prospect. 

I'm not saying Sonny Gray won't be a good pitcher.  I'm saying Sonny Gray has a metric ton of substitutes on this market that can be acquired without sacrificing prospects. 

 

I'm not sure any of those options is as good as Gray or would be as affordable to a team on a tight budget this offseason. Obviously you don't spend anything major in a trade on him, but is it worth something to get a better option than most of those others? Hard to say without knowing what the Yanks would ask for. 

[wopphil]

23 hours ago, Second Base said:

For one year of Gio Gonzalez, who has had a better career than Gray, you're looking at 10 million.....

 

You dont know this. He could command more per year, and could cost multiple years.

[UndertheHalo]

My knee jerk reaction to idea of Sonny Grey was very negative.  Looked at it more, read some good opinions.   I’d be fine with Sonny Grey now.   Probably prefer him to most of the pitching possibilities actually.  Eovaldi is still the top of my pitching list though. 

[tdawg87]

On 10/25/2018 at 3:58 PM, Angel Oracle said:

Sobering fact about Realmuto: his 2015-2017 home OPS = sub .700.    Yes, Marlins Park is a pitchers' park with 344/386/407/393/335 dimensions.

But, that is just plain bad in ANY home park!   And Angel Stadium isn't a bed of roses either.

No thank you!   

This is an odd cherry pick of a stat. He had a 111 and 112 OPS+ in 2016 and 2017 respectively. 

For comparison's sake, Maldonado had a 72 OPS+ with the Angels, Briceno 89, Graterol 37, Rivera 98.

He's so much better than what we've had it's not even really close. Picking his raw home OPS is kinda silly.

[WeatherWonk]

Apparently, the Angel FO feels that starting pitching is our top priority. I can understand that, but the offense can't be ignored. Four of the five clubs in our division scored more runs than us. We were league and MLB average in runs scored.

Given that Pujols will be in the lineup probably 2/3 of the time (at least), we need to counteract that offensive drag and the likely offensive drag of another sub-par (or is it now, par?) season by Calhoun.

WE NEED TO GET A DAMN LEADOFF HITTER, to put in front of Trout, Ohtani, Upton, Simmons fer cryin out loud!! It can exponentially increase the runs we score if Trout, Ohtani and Upton have the kinds of season they are capable of. The sum can be greater than the parts, with the right guy.

To kill two birds with one stone, find a  leadoff hitter who can play right and center and, at the very least, platoon RF with Calhoun or replace him, when he slumps. McCutcheon or Jay seem like good choices. Jay, especially, because he will sign a 1-2 year contract. If Cutch wants three, then he is probably a pass, with the PURPORTED emergence (though he still Ks a boatload) of Adell.

Cutch/Jay, Trout, Ohtani, Upton, Simmons, Pujols/Fernandez, Cozart, catcher, Fletch.

We can live with what hitters like Fletch, Cozart and Fernandez are likely to give us (probably better than what we got from KInsler, Valbuena/Marte and Albert last year, anyway) IF we have  run-scoring machinery at the top of the lineup. 

[Angel Oracle]

Regarding position players, OBP is definitely top priority.   The power was there in 2018, but not the baserunners.  

[totdprods]

9 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Regarding position players, OBP is definitely top priority.   The power was there in 2018, but not the baserunners.  

Yup - find a platoon/vet catcher who is good for a .315+ OBP (don’t need much to be an improvement over what we’ve had), a 2B/3B who has a track record of offering plus OBP and give him outright, or at least the opportunity, to win a starting role over Fletcher, find a LH 1B also with a track record of good OBP, and then round out the bench with either a potential 4th OF/UT IF option who also has a good BA/OBP track record.

I don’t think we need one massive improvement; just incremental gains from our bench and platoon offerings coupled with natural improvement that Fletcher and Ohtani will bring in their respective roles should be enough to give us a lift. 

[Stradling]

I am really liking the idea of adding Cutch. 

[Docwaukee]

17 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I am really liking the idea of adding Cutch. 

I feel like he's going to get at least two years and maybe 3 at around 12 aav.  

[Stradling]

8 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I feel like he's going to get at least two years and maybe 3 at around 12 aav.  

If it is 3 years then no way, 2 years I would consider it.  

[T.G.]

I like Cutch. I like him as a baseball player and he does a lot of great things in the community, but I am done with signing players like him who are past their prime and due to regress.  I know he might be an upgrade, but I would just rather not sign a guy like him.  I doubt OF is a priority for the Angels tight now - I think they're going to ride it out with Calhoun.  My preference is to sign a guy like Marwin Gonzalez, but he's an obvious target for obvious reasons.