The Official 2017-2018 Hot Stove Thread

[beatlesrule]

7 hours ago, SuperTroopers said:

Did it move?

Only Raymond can make that happen.

[Docwaukee]

8 hours ago, Homebrewer said:

Altuve is better, so no.

BTW...Happy Birthday

whoa. wait.  what?  

[Stradling]

4 hours ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-qualifying-offer-rules-explained/c-259650658

• A team that neither exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season nor receives revenue sharing will lose its second-highest selection in the following year's Draft, as well as $500,000 from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If it signs two such players, it will also forfeit its third-highest remaining pick and an additional $500,000.

For a team to lose both a second and fifth round pick that needed to exceed the luxury tax the year before. IE: Dodgers, Giants, Yankees, Boston, Nationals.

We would lose second round pick and $500,000 in international pool money.

I guess I read it about one team and assumed it was the same for every team.   That doesn’t say they’d lose slot money for the pick.   I’m guessing they do, but if they don’t, then I would have no issues signing one of these guys.  

[Homebrewer]

6 hours ago, Dochalo said:

whoa. wait.  what?  

yesterday was Strad's birthday..

[bloodbrother]

 

[Chuck]

I'm almost 99.9% sure we're not signing Cobb from the people I talked to in Arizona. 

[Angelsfan1984]

8 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

I'm almost 99.9% sure we're not signing Cobb from the people I talked to in Arizona. 

Did you talk to them before or after the Heaney injury?

[krAbs]

 

lol why would they do that?

[GoodTimesGoneBad]

Way too expensive if true. 

[krAbs]

2 minutes ago, GoodTimesGoneBad said:

Way too expensive if true. 

Especially given Lynn's contract.

[Chuck]

2 minutes ago, krAbs said:

Especially given Lynn's contract.

and the fact that they will be finishing in 4th place for the next 3 years. 

[nando714]

28 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

Did you talk to them before or after the Heaney injury? And after another Ohtani bad start

 

[Chuck]

32 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

Did you talk to them before or after the Heaney injury?

No, but I can tell you the Angels are not worried about Ohtani and they seem like Heaney will just miss one ST start.

Alex Cobb just got overpaid. 3 years, 50 million. LOL

[Angelsfan1984]

Just now, Chuckster70 said:

No, but I can tell you the Angels are not worried about Ohtani and they seem like Heaney will just miss one ST start.

Alex Cobb just got overpaid. 3 years, 50 million. LOL

I think everyone on this board would have taken 16M per before the offseason started. I wouldn't call that an overpay, I would just call it business as usual. I would say that Lynn got underpaid.

[Angel Oracle]

Cobb in Oriole Canaveral Park = much higher ERA. 

[nando714]

56 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Cobb in Oriole Canaveral Park = much higher ERA. 

He’s pitched in the that bandbox division his whole career so it isn’t anything new for him to be honest 

[GoodTimesGoneBad]

4/60. I bet Lynn is pissed. 

[beatlesrule]

6:53PM: The four-year deal will be worth $57MM, an MLB official tells 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine (Twitter link).

 

[tdawg87]

lol thank you Eppler for not offering that. 

[WeatherWonk]

That doesnt seem like a bad deal to me, at all. And I'd much rather have him that Lance Lynn.

At least he has pitched close to 200 innings in a season since TJ surgery. None of our starters can say that yet.

[Chuck]

9 minutes ago, WeatherWonk said:

That doesnt seem like a bad deal to me, at all. And I'd much rather have him that Lance Lynn.

At least he has pitched close to 200 innings in a season since TJ surgery. None of our starters can say that yet.

Yet.

[Inside Pitch]

3 hours ago, nando714 said:

He’s pitched in the that bandbox division his whole career so it isn’t anything new for him to be honest 

Career ERA of 4.62 there -- and that was with some excellent TBR defenses.

[Docwaukee]

If we had signed Cobb at the beginning of the off season for that contract, we'd all be happy.  Not overjoyed by any stretch, but satisfied.  

That said, it's one year too long.  And for the record, the worst free agent deals are, in the following order:

1.  power hitting first basemen that includes years after age 33- Albert, Davis, Cabrera, Votto, Fielder, Mauer, Tex, AGon, Carlos Lee, Hosmer, 

2. Mid to back end starters for 4 or more age 30+ - Meche, Dicek, Jeff Supan, Tedd Lilly, Carlos Silva,  AJ Burnett, Ryan Dempster, Derek Lowe,  Mark buehrle,  CJ Wilson, Anibal Sanchez,  Edwin Jackson, Matt Garza, Ricky Nolasco, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jason Vargas, James Shields, Ervin Santana, Brandon McCarthy, Jordan Zimmerman, Jeff Samardzija, Wei-Yin Chen, Mike Leake, Ian Kennedy

3. Speed guys or Mediocre OFers, Juan Pierre, GMJ, Aaron Rowand, Jason Bay, Chone Figgins, Carl Crawford, Jason Werth, Jose Reyes, Melvin Upton, Nick Swisher,  Michael Bourn, Angel Pagan, Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin Soo Choo, Curtis Granderson, Nick Markakis, Jason Heyward, Alex Gordon, Dexter Fowler, Ian Desmond, Josh Reddick, Lorenzo Cain, Luis Castillo, Julio Lugo

Not every player above has been awful.  But most of them have been well below expectations.  And that's a relatively comprehensive list of 4yr or more deals over since 2006.  

Others not included of 4yrs or more:

RP - Chapman, Jansen, Melancon, Brett Cecil, David Robertson, Andrew Miller, Papelbon, Cordero, Scott Linebrink 

SP - Darvish x2, Price, Greinke x2, Cueto, Scherzer, Jon Lester, Tanaka, Ryu, Lackey, Sabathia, Zito

IF/OF/DH - JD Mart, Cespedes, Justin Turner, Upton, Zobrist, Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, Tomas, VMart x2, Nelson Cruz, Chase Headley,  Cano, Peralta, Omar Infante, Joshy, Beltre, Matt Holliday, Dunn, Torii, Arod x2, Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, JD Drew

C - Russell Martin, McCann

 

So the secondary list still isn't great but at least it's closer to 50/50.  For the most part, older DH types are a bad bet. Star OFers with power and obp are a decent bet.  Especially if they defend well.  Ace starters aren't a bad bet if they throw decently hard and miss a lot of bats.  Really good 3bmen seems like a good bet while decent ones are a really bad bet.  

So, predicting this years class including those of 3yrs or more:  

good bets - none

decent bets - Cozart, McGee, Shaw, Chatwood

Even money - Darvish, Santana, Wade Davis, Arrieta (it's really a 3 yrs deal guaranteed).  

bad bets - Hosmer, JDM, Cain, Jay Bruce, Mike Minor, Alex Cobb

[Glen]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

If we had signed Cobb at the beginning of the off season for that contract, we'd all be happy.  Not overjoyed by any stretch, but satisfied.  

That said, it's one year too long.  And for the record, the worst free agent deals are, in the following order:

1.  power hitting first basemen that includes years after age 33- Albert, Davis, Cabrera, Votto, Fielder, Mauer, Tex, AGon, Carlos Lee, Hosmer, 

2. Mid to back end starters for 4 or more age 30+ - Meche, Dicek, Jeff Supan, Tedd Lilly, Carlos Silva,  AJ Burnett, Ryan Dempster, Derek Lowe,  Mark buehrle,  CJ Wilson, Anibal Sanchez,  Edwin Jackson, Matt Garza, Ricky Nolasco, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jason Vargas, James Shields, Ervin Santana, Brandon McCarthy, Jordan Zimmerman, Jeff Samardzija, Wei-Yin Chen, Mike Leake, Ian Kennedy

3. Speed guys or Mediocre OFers, Juan Pierre, GMJ, Aaron Rowand, Jason Bay, Chone Figgins, Carl Crawford, Jason Werth, Jose Reyes, Melvin Upton, Nick Swisher,  Michael Bourn, Angel Pagan, Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin Soo Choo, Curtis Granderson, Nick Markakis, Jason Heyward, Alex Gordon, Dexter Fowler, Ian Desmond, Josh Reddick, Lorenzo Cain, Luis Castillo, Julio Lugo

Not every player above has been awful.  But most of them have been well below expectations.  And that's a relatively comprehensive list of 4yr or more deals over since 2006.  

Others not included of 4yrs or more:

RP - Chapman, Jansen, Melancon, Brett Cecil, David Robertson, Andrew Miller, Papelbon, Cordero, Scott Linebrink 

SP - Darvish x2, Price, Greinke x2, Cueto, Scherzer, Jon Lester, Tanaka, Ryu, Lackey, Sabathia, Zito

IF/OF/DH - JD Mart, Cespedes, Justin Turner, Upton, Zobrist, Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, Tomas, VMart x2, Nelson Cruz, Chase Headley,  Cano, Peralta, Omar Infante, Joshy, Beltre, Matt Holliday, Dunn, Torii, Arod x2, Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, JD Drew

C - Russell Martin, McCann

 

So the secondary list still isn't great but at least it's closer to 50/50.  For the most part, older DH types are a bad bet. Star OFers with power and obp are a decent bet.  Especially if they defend well.  Ace starters aren't a bad bet if they throw decently hard and miss a lot of bats.  Really good 3bmen seems like a good bet while decent ones are a really bad bet.  

So, predicting this years class including those of 3yrs or more:  

good bets - none

decent bets - Cozart, McGee, Shaw, Chatwood

Even money - Darvish, Santana, Wade Davis, Arrieta (it's really a 3 yrs deal guaranteed).  

bad bets - Hosmer, JDM, Cain, Jay Bruce, Mike Minor, Alex Cobb

I appreciate the research that went into this post. Good info.

[Lou]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

If we had signed Cobb at the beginning of the off season for that contract, we'd all be happy.  Not overjoyed by any stretch, but satisfied.  

That said, it's one year too long.  And for the record, the worst free agent deals are, in the following order:

1.  power hitting first basemen that includes years after age 33- Albert, Davis, Cabrera, Votto, Fielder, Mauer, Tex, AGon, Carlos Lee, Hosmer, 

2. Mid to back end starters for 4 or more age 30+ - Meche, Dicek, Jeff Supan, Tedd Lilly, Carlos Silva,  AJ Burnett, Ryan Dempster, Derek Lowe,  Mark buehrle,  CJ Wilson, Anibal Sanchez,  Edwin Jackson, Matt Garza, Ricky Nolasco, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jason Vargas, James Shields, Ervin Santana, Brandon McCarthy, Jordan Zimmerman, Jeff Samardzija, Wei-Yin Chen, Mike Leake, Ian Kennedy

3. Speed guys or Mediocre OFers, Juan Pierre, GMJ, Aaron Rowand, Jason Bay, Chone Figgins, Carl Crawford, Jason Werth, Jose Reyes, Melvin Upton, Nick Swisher,  Michael Bourn, Angel Pagan, Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin Soo Choo, Curtis Granderson, Nick Markakis, Jason Heyward, Alex Gordon, Dexter Fowler, Ian Desmond, Josh Reddick, Lorenzo Cain, Luis Castillo, Julio Lugo

Not every player above has been awful.  But most of them have been well below expectations.  And that's a relatively comprehensive list of 4yr or more deals over since 2006.  

Others not included of 4yrs or more:

RP - Chapman, Jansen, Melancon, Brett Cecil, David Robertson, Andrew Miller, Papelbon, Cordero, Scott Linebrink 

SP - Darvish x2, Price, Greinke x2, Cueto, Scherzer, Jon Lester, Tanaka, Ryu, Lackey, Sabathia, Zito

IF/OF/DH - JD Mart, Cespedes, Justin Turner, Upton, Zobrist, Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, Tomas, VMart x2, Nelson Cruz, Chase Headley,  Cano, Peralta, Omar Infante, Joshy, Beltre, Matt Holliday, Dunn, Torii, Arod x2, Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, JD Drew

C - Russell Martin, McCann

 

So the secondary list still isn't great but at least it's closer to 50/50.  For the most part, older DH types are a bad bet. Star OFers with power and obp are a decent bet.  Especially if they defend well.  Ace starters aren't a bad bet if they throw decently hard and miss a lot of bats.  Really good 3bmen seems like a good bet while decent ones are a really bad bet.  

So, predicting this years class including those of 3yrs or more:  

good bets - none

decent bets - Cozart, McGee, Shaw, Chatwood

Even money - Darvish, Santana, Wade Davis, Arrieta (it's really a 3 yrs deal guaranteed).  

bad bets - Hosmer, JDM, Cain, Jay Bruce, Mike Minor, Alex Cobb

 

I love you, doc.

That was a great post.