Snell to the Padres

[Revad]

Interesting read from Ben Clemens at Fangraphs:  

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/for-whom-the-snell-toils/

 

[ettin]

13 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

So now comes the question.... Is Castillo a higher return than Snell was?

Yes.

[Erstad Grit]

I'm nervous Padres making big moves causes Dodgers to get Bauer. 

[Dtwncbad]

I don’t think we can know yet if Castillo costs more.  Logical answer is yes.  But if the Padres were uniquely aggressive on Snell, then it may not really have an impact on the price in other trades.

Who knows.

[Second Base]

Prellar's negotiating style.

[ten ocho recon scout]

Would love to see the Pads get good and push the dodgers off a cliff. But I fell for this circa 2012 or whatever and ended up looking stupid to the dog fans at work.

Still hope to see it though

[Hubs]

According to Baseball Trade Values the Rays got 61 points of Value and the Padres got 53 which is a minor overpay.

61 points of value from the Angels system would’ve been Marsh, Detmers, Sandoval, and like Knowles or something similar. 

The Angels did not have enough to match What the Rays were looking for in terms of position. They got arms and catchers, and that’s two things the Angels do not have.

Sonny Gray is at 36 on the value chart, and so that’s almost Marsh one to one. Add in some filler prospects and you’d end up being right there.
 

You also could build a package say around Sandoval, Adam’s and Jackson (34 total) though that wouldn’t likely be enough. especially since you’d have to over pay a bit, somewhere around 41-42 value package is like adding Yan and Thaiss to the above.  

Adding in a bad contract would drastically reduce the amount needed to acquire Gray.

Both rumored contracts are between -17 and -20 in value. 
 

For your reference, Luis Castillo has a value on here at 114. That is not possible to come up with a package for that doesn’t strip the farm bare and take on one or two of those bad contracts. 

Say it’s for Castillo and Castellanos, you’d have to still come up with 95 value, so you’re looking at Adell, Adams, Detmers, Sandoval and Yan at least. And I don’t think that gets it done.

[Jay]

1 hour ago, Warfarin said:

We'll see.

This is the smartest thing posted in this thread.

[DMVol]

34 minutes ago, Hubs said:

According to Baseball Trade Values the Rays got 61 points of Value and the Padres got 53 which is a minor overpay.

61 points of value from the Angels system would’ve been Marsh, Detmers, Sandoval, and like Knowles or something similar. 

The Angels did not have enough to match What the Rays were looking for in terms of position. They got arms and catchers, and that’s two things the Angels do not have.

Sonny Gray is at 36 on the value chart, and so that’s almost Marsh one to one. Add in some filler prospects and you’d end up being right there.
 

You also could build a package say around Sandoval, Adam’s and Jackson (34 total) though that wouldn’t likely be enough. especially since you’d have to over pay a bit, somewhere around 41-42 value package is like adding Yan and Thaiss to the above.  

Adding in a bad contract would drastically reduce the amount needed to acquire Gray.

Both rumored contracts are between -17 and -20 in value. 
 

For your reference, Luis Castillo has a value on here at 114. That is not possible to come up with a package for that doesn’t strip the farm bare and take on one or two of those bad contracts. 

Say it’s for Castillo and Castellanos, you’d have to still come up with 95 value, so you’re looking at Adell, Adams, Detmers, Sandoval and Yan at least. And I don’t think that gets it done.

Gray and taking on Moose or Castellanos is probably doable, from a prospect standpoint.....just not sure how much room you’d have to get another pitcher. It would almost certainly rule out Bauer.....Castillo probably isn’t happening, even if you took on Moose and Castellanos, unless you back up the truck and let them pick any 5 of your prospects.....

[eligrba]

I still would not trust the Rays......I think they know something about Snell that causes them to make this trade.

[totdprods]

With Snell, and probably Darvish, coming off the board I’m gonna assume if the Angels are seriously shopping in this tier we will see something soon.

Guessing Musgrove.

[CanadianHalo]

14 minutes ago, totdprods said:

With Snell, and probably Darvish, coming off the board I’m gonna assume if the Angels are seriously shopping in this tier we will see something soon.

Guessing Musgrove.

Musgrove isn’t in the same tier as those two

[Junkballer]

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

According to Baseball Trade Values the Rays got 61 points of Value and the Padres got 53 which is a minor overpay.

61 points of value from the Angels system would’ve been Marsh, Detmers, Sandoval, and like Knowles or something similar. 

The Angels did not have enough to match What the Rays were looking for in terms of position. They got arms and catchers, and that’s two things the Angels do not have.

Sonny Gray is at 36 on the value chart, and so that’s almost Marsh one to one. Add in some filler prospects and you’d end up being right there.
 

You also could build a package say around Sandoval, Adam’s and Jackson (34 total) though that wouldn’t likely be enough. especially since you’d have to over pay a bit, somewhere around 41-42 value package is like adding Yan and Thaiss to the above.  

Adding in a bad contract would drastically reduce the amount needed to acquire Gray.

Both rumored contracts are between -17 and -20 in value. 
 

For your reference, Luis Castillo has a value on here at 114. That is not possible to come up with a package for that doesn’t strip the farm bare and take on one or two of those bad contracts. 

Say it’s for Castillo and Castellanos, you’d have to still come up with 95 value, so you’re looking at Adell, Adams, Detmers, Sandoval and Yan at least. And I don’t think that gets it done.

I dont know how much theyd want above Castillos 115 BTV value but Fletcher, Adell/Marsh, Canning get you 15 points above.  Take on a bad contract and change the names of the aforementioned pieces and youre in the ballpark.  If the Reds are truly considering trading him and not just trying to fleece the desperate, I would hope Minasian pushes hard for Castillo over Gray.

[ukyah]

musgrove is like the jon gray of last year. i don't really understand all the desire to get him. if he was our 1A acquisition, then i'd be disappointed. to me, both musgrove and jon gray are guys that you acquire on the semi cheap when their current team is being small minded/small market, and not guys that you pay top prospect dollar for.

[totdprods]

5 minutes ago, ukyah said:

musgrove is like the jon gray of last year. i don't really understand all the desire to get him. if he was our 1A acquisition, then i'd be disappointed. to me, both musgrove and jon gray are guys that you acquire on the semi cheap when their current team is being small minded/small market, and not guys that you pay top prospect dollar for.

Someone, I think maybe @Second Base, also pointed out that Musgrove could be on par to someone like Zack Wheeler. Everything is there for a step to the next level, and the current production is still good enough to justify the risk. 

Bauer and Musgrove would be huge and a great outcome.

Musgrove, another cheaper lesser arm, and smaller adds to RP/C/RF would be a good outcome too.

Probably don’t have the trade capital for Musgrove and another top tier trade arm, but that also works. Salary wise, cheap enough to afford vet FAs to fill needs of those dealt.

Edited December 28, 2020 by totdprods

[angelsnationtalk]

Musgrove fits perfectly with the pitching we already have. Tons of #3 guys. Total Angels way....

If the Angels want to contend then they need to sign Bauer and trade for a top guy. Period. Yes, I know it'll be almost impossible. 

Gotta play big to be big.

[totdprods]

They could also just try to slot in solid pitching and upgrades this year - Musgrove, Quintana, Odorizzi - and go for someone like Syndergaard next year, since Minasian had ties to him. If Bauer is too expensive or not interested and other trade targets like Castillo are unrealistic.

[Cosmo_Kramer]

Just now, totdprods said:

They could also just try to slot in solid pitching and upgrades this year - Musgrove, Quintana, Odorizzi - and go for someone like Syndergaard next year, since Minasian had ties to him. If Bauer is too expensive or not interested and other trade targets like Castillo are unrealistic.

Yeah, they could just waste every year of Trout by continuing to pay for mediocre pitching and crossing their fingers that the continual "next year" ace will finally choose them

[angelsnationtalk]

9 minutes ago, totdprods said:

They could also just try to slot in solid pitching and upgrades this year - Musgrove, Quintana, Odorizzi - and go for someone like Syndergaard next year, since Minasian had ties to him. If Bauer is too expensive or not interested and other trade targets like Castillo are unrealistic.

Yup... This idea make 100% sense.... if they didn't do this the last 4 years and have Trout on their team. 

It boils down to Arte and his pocket books. Like I've been saying all along. If he wants to win then he's gotta play ball with the guys and not the boys. 
Aside from Arb guys and raises, the Angels have roughly $58M dropping off with Pujols and Upton. 

Time to play with the men, Arte. 

[totdprods]

19 minutes ago, Cosmo_Kramer said:

Yeah, they could just waste every year of Trout by continuing to pay for mediocre pitching and crossing their fingers that the continual "next year" ace will finally choose them

Yeah yeah yeah...

Improvements are improvements. We can’t always get what we want. Musgrove, Odorizzi, Iglesias x 2, Suzuki, Joc would be a competitive team still.

[ukyah]

48 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Yeah yeah yeah...

Improvements are improvements. We can’t always get what we want. Musgrove, Odorizzi, Iglesias x 2, Suzuki, Joc would be a competitive team still.

i understand your point, but i have learned over the years that in sports the word "competitive" means we're just looking to be a playloff contender, not a world series contender. i friggin' hate "competitive".

[AngelsLakersFan]

1 hour ago, ukyah said:

i understand your point, but i have learned over the years that in sports the word "competitive" means we're just looking to be a playloff contender, not a world series contender. i friggin' hate "competitive".

I would love for the Angels to be a world series competitor but we've never really acted like a true large market team, even under Moreno. He went above the luxury tax amount for one season, and then we complained about not having another bat to hit behind Vlad for five years of this organizations golden age. Moreno went and got Hamilton after signing Pujols, but when he fell off the wagon we went without a left fielder until his contract expired. I absolutely think this team should sign Bauer and fill their holes in RF, C and the bullpen but with all the money currently committed it would really shock me to see Arte go well beyond what he has typically allotted.

[Slegnaac]

Signing Bauer isn't going to make the Angels competitive. 

Having three (or four) of these guys perform as #2s instead of just average (or below) will make this team competitive. 

Barria

Canning

Heaney

Ohtani

Sandoval

[Stradling]

51 minutes ago, Slegnaac said:

Signing Bauer isn't going to make the Angels competitive. 

Having three (or four) of these guys perform as #2s instead of just average (or below) will make this team competitive. 

Barria

Canning

Heaney

Ohtani

Sandoval

Yes signing Bauer makes us competitive.  Additional moves will also be made.  The hardest thing to acquire in baseball is a TOR arm.  Bauer fills that need.

[tdawg87]

1 hour ago, Slegnaac said:

Signing Bauer isn't going to make the Angels competitive. 

Having three (or four) of these guys perform as #2s instead of just average (or below) will make this team competitive. 

Barria

Canning

Heaney

Ohtani

Sandoval

What an...odd take.

If all our pitchers have ERA's under 3 we'll be competitive.