The Official 2020-2021 Hot Stove Offseason Thread

[Hubs]

12 hours ago, Trendon said:

The "actual" payroll right now is around $165 million. That includes players with guaranteed salaries, arb-eligible players, and pre-arb players.

That $151 million number you got doesn't account for the estimated salaries for pre-arb players (which is a little under 11M) and Ohtani's arbitration number (which will be 2.5M or 3M.)

The actual number is dependent on the number of pre arb club control. there are 11 guys under contract, 1 going to arbitration, and that means 14 salaries at under 600k each. That’s like 8.2 m, so you’re 2.5-3 m high.

[Hubs]

Just now, Hubs said:

The actual number is dependent on the number of pre arb club control. there are 11 guys under contract, 1 going to arbitration, and that means 14 salaries at 600 k each. That’s like 8.2 m, so you’re 2.5-3 m high.

The other 14 on the 40 Man make less and they’re only counted on the luxury tax payroll to which they also add a 15.5 M or so benefits number. Cap isn’t counted until the end of the season so it’s really irrelevant now.

 

[gotbeer]

Another ace on trade block? Here are 5 fits

A whopping 114.8 trade value according to the simulator.  In comparison, Gray is at a 35.9.  Adell 54.8.  Marsh 36.2.  

[floplag]

12 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

There needs to be a site that gives accurate numbers. Even if it's an educated guess. I can't find any that even considers arbitration cases and all the other payroll shit. It's basically useless. 

Ive always liked this one as it also included the tax reference.
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/los-angeles-angels/payroll/

Per this we have 34 M under the tax.
So the issues is, assuming the are willing to go that high, how do we fit two SP, a RF, and more bullpen help under that number.
To me, the answer is, we dont, not if any of them are named Bauer.
The only way we get Bauer is if they are willing to bust the tax for these next 2 years.  Otherwise its simply not realistic.  WE have to many other holes to be filled still.

[angelsnationtalk]

29 minutes ago, gotbeer said:

Another ace on trade block? Here are 5 fits

A whopping 114.8 trade value according to the simulator.  In comparison, Gray is at a 35.9.  Adell 54.8.  Marsh 36.2.  

I like how the Angels aren't even mentioned in this article yet they’re one of the teams that desperately need to make a trade for someone like him 

[gotbeer]

12 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

There needs to be a site that gives accurate numbers. Even if it's an educated guess. I can't find any that even considers arbitration cases and all the other payroll shit. It's basically useless. 

Spotrac Angels figures

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/los-angeles-angels//payroll

Spotrac Free Agent figures, including estimated salaries

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/

Cot's baseball salary figures

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-west/la-angels/

Cot's salary tracking chart

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FsmsUpbOz2RsyxdPSM1oXHHuIE33NhIMEN-7bD0J9mg/edit

MLB trade rumors arbitration estimates

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2021.html

 

[BTH]

10 hours ago, Erstad Grit said:

Did you listen to that press conference? He made it clear it was going up. 

Yes I did listen to that press conference. He never once said that it was going up.

[BTH]

2 hours ago, Hubs said:

The actual number is dependent on the number of pre arb club control. there are 11 guys under contract, 1 going to arbitration, and that means 14 salaries at under 600k each. That’s like 8.2 m, so you’re 2.5-3 m high.

It'll be more than that because players get hurt and you have to pay both the injured player and whoever gets called up for the injured player. For example, it may start at 26 but if a reliever gets hurt 3 weeks into the season, you'll have to pay the salaries of both the injured reliever and the reliever called up to replace the injured reliever. Throughout the season, multiple players will go on the injured list and it will all add up and bring up the total.

 

[Bronson]

Well... 

[Redondo]

Someone is bored

[Stradling]

38 minutes ago, Trendon said:

It'll be more than that because players get hurt and you have to pay both the injured player and whoever gets called up for the injured player. For example, it may start at 26 but if a reliever gets hurt 3 weeks into the season, you'll have to pay the salaries of both the injured reliever and the reliever called up to replace the injured reliever. Throughout the season, multiple players will go on the injured list and it will all add up and bring up the total.

 

Ok, but lets say that we have 300 days of DL time this season, which seems like a lot, that is basically everyone on the roster going on the 15 day DL.  That adds $1.1 million in salary.  Not a huge amount.  

[Hubs]

1 hour ago, Trendon said:

It'll be more than that because players get hurt and you have to pay both the injured player and whoever gets called up for the injured player. For example, it may start at 26 but if a reliever gets hurt 3 weeks into the season, you'll have to pay the salaries of both the injured reliever and the reliever called up to replace the injured reliever. Throughout the season, multiple players will go on the injured list and it will all add up and bring up the total.

 

Right but they could also trade players, or demote players and that affects the total too.
 

Not everyone on the 40 man makes The Major League minimum, the minor league minimum salary for players who have played in the majors is higher than those who haven’t. It’s around 120k for AAA and less at lower levels, so players like Adell and Jones make more than Yan and Marsh. When they’re called up, they are paid the prorated version of the Major League Minimum, and when they’re sent down they make a prorated version of the minor league minimum. So say Rengifo is sent down for Thaiss, for two weeks cuz they need another first baseman. The total salary paid out doesn’t change — just who they paid it too.

But trades and cuts and DL time are reasons the luxury tax is calculated at the end of the season and we shouldn’t worry about it that much in January.

Bottom line is the Angels likely have about 30M Left to match last years 191 payroll. Which was up a few million from 2018-19, so they may not spend it all. I can see them trading for Musgrove or Gray and adding an arm like Tanaka or Walker or Richards instead of going for Bauer. They still have enough room.

I also still see them Adding a Left Handed OF bat. Whether they try Thaiss or Walsh in the OF or someone like Joc Pederson, they need a lefty OF Bat, preferably one who can play CF.

[tdawg87]

2 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

I like how the Angels aren't even mentioned in this article yet they’re one of the teams that desperately need to make a trade for someone like him 

Tbf we almost certainly don't have the prospects to land him.

Actually we probably do: Adell, Marsh, Detmers, Rodriguez and Jam Jones.

That's bending over, spreading our cheeks, and saying "nah Cincy, we don't need lube."

[BTH]

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

Right but they could also trade players, or demote players and that affects the total too.
 

Not everyone on the 40 man makes The Major League minimum, the minor league minimum salary for players who have played in the majors is higher than those who haven’t. It’s around 120k for AAA and less at lower levels, so players like Adell and Jones make more than Yan and Marsh. When they’re called up, they are paid the prorated version of the Major League Minimum, and when they’re sent down they make a prorated version of the minor league minimum. So say Rengifo is sent down for Thaiss, for two weeks cuz they need another first baseman. The total salary paid out doesn’t change — just who they paid it too.

But trades and cuts and DL time are reasons the luxury tax is calculated at the end of the season and we shouldn’t worry about it that much in January.

Bottom line is the Angels likely have about 30M Left to match last years 191 payroll. Which was up a few million from 2018-19, so they may not spend it all. I can see them trading for Musgrove or Gray and adding an arm like Tanaka or Walker or Richards instead of going for Bauer. They still have enough room.

I also still see them Adding a Left Handed OF bat. Whether they try Thaiss or Walsh in the OF or someone like Joc Pederson, they need a lefty OF Bat, preferably one who can play CF.

Where are you getting that $191 million number from? From everything I've seen, last year's payroll was ~$180 million, not $191 million.

[Hubs]

20 minutes ago, Trendon said:

Where are you getting that $191 million number from? From everything I've seen, last year's payroll was ~$180 million, not $191 million.

It was on cots but now they’ve got it at 184.

Still, 71.2 is 37% of 191.9 million, so... 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-west/la-angels/

[BTH]

56 minutes ago, Hubs said:

It was on cots but now they’ve got it at 184.

Still, 71.2 is 37% of 191.9 million, so... 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-west/la-angels/

Cots is a little inaccurate. They listed Trout's non-prorated salary as 38.5M and Upton's non-prorated salary as $22.7M but neither is correct. Trout's non-prorated 2020 salary was $37.67M and Upton's was $21M. So that $184 million number is really ~$2.5 million lower.

Also, in regards to that $71.2M number, it seems like they didn't pro-rate all player's salaries by exactly 37% because the numbers for all the players are a little bit off and it all adds up. For example, 37% of Pujols' $29M salary is 10,730,000 but Cots lists it as 10,740,741. It seems to be that way for all players, such as Teheran, as 37% of his $9M salary is $3,300,000 but Cots lists it as $3,333,333.

Edit: Ok, I did the math. I don't know why Cots didn't pro-rate player salaries by exactly 37%, but if you actually pro-rate the Angels salaries by 37%, you get $181,482,703. Maybe there's a reason why they didn't pro-rate it by exactly 37%, but $181.5M is the actual number if the Angels salaries were pro-rated by 37%.

[ukyah]

9 minutes ago, Trendon said:

Cots is a little inaccurate. They listed Trout's non-prorated salary as 38.5M and Upton's non-prorated salary as $22.7M but neither is correct. Trout's non-prorated 2020 salary was $37.67M and Upton's was $21M. So that $184 million number is really ~$2.5 million lower.

Also, in regards to that $71.2M number, it seems like they didn't pro-rate all player's salaries by exactly 37% because the numbers for all the players are a little bit off and it all adds up. For example, 37% of Pujols' $29M salary is 10,730,000 but Cots lists it as 10,740,741. It seems to be that way for all players, such as Teheran, as 37% of his $9M salary is $3,300,000 but Cots lists it as $3,333,333.

god, i love baseball talk. it's so refreshing to get away from work.

[beatlesrule]

5 hours ago, gotbeer said:

Spotrac Angels figures

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/los-angeles-angels//payroll

Spotrac Free Agent figures, including estimated salaries

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/

Cot's baseball salary figures

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-west/la-angels/

Cot's salary tracking chart

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FsmsUpbOz2RsyxdPSM1oXHHuIE33NhIMEN-7bD0J9mg/edit

MLB trade rumors arbitration estimates

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2021.html

 

 

2 hours ago, Trendon said:

Where are you getting that $191 million number from? From everything I've seen, last year's payroll was ~$180 million, not $191 million.

 

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

It was on cots but now they’ve got it at 184.

Still, 71.2 is 37% of 191.9 million, so... 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-west/la-angels/

 

1 hour ago, Trendon said:

Cots is a little inaccurate. They listed Trout's non-prorated salary as 38.5M and Upton's non-prorated salary as $22.7M but neither is correct. Trout's non-prorated 2020 salary was $37.67M and Upton's was $21M. So that $184 million number is really ~$2.5 million lower.

Also, in regards to that $71.2M number, it seems like they didn't pro-rate all player's salaries by exactly 37% because the numbers for all the players are a little bit off and it all adds up. For example, 37% of Pujols' $29M salary is 10,730,000 but Cots lists it as 10,740,741. It seems to be that way for all players, such as Teheran, as 37% of his $9M salary is $3,300,000 but Cots lists it as $3,333,333.

Edit: Ok, I did the math. I don't know why Cots didn't pro-rate player salaries by exactly 37%, but if you actually pro-rate the Angels salaries by 37%, you get $181,482,703. Maybe there's a reason why they didn't pro-rate it by exactly 37%, but $181.5M is the actual number if the Angels salaries were pro-rated by 37%.

 

[jsnpritchett]

[BTH]

"According to league sources, longtime Yankee Masahiro Tanaka is seeking a one-year deal at $15-20 million."

 

That seems a bit rich for the Angels, but I could see the Angels going after Tanaka on a 1 year deal at a lower salary.

[gotbeer]

11 pitchers to watch in FA relief market

Some extra information on pro's and con's for those that are interested.

[gotbeer]

29 minutes ago, Trendon said:

"According to league sources, longtime Yankee Masahiro Tanaka is seeking a one-year deal at $15-20 million."

 

That seems a bit rich for the Angels, but I could see the Angels going after Tanaka on a 1 year deal at a lower salary.

Stat wise, he'd be at about a 2-4 type pitcher.  2017 and 2019 he pitched more like a 4 pitcher.  14/15/16 he was pitching like a 1.  and 18/20 like a 2.  He's 32, and has been pretty durable lately with 10 gs last year (short season that's not bad), and 31, 27, 30 and 31 gs the previous seasons.  Spotrac has his value at $16.69 million, so his asking is within range.  I don't think he'd do a 1 year at $15, but he might think of a multiyear deal at $15 million.  

[DMVol]

38 minutes ago, Trendon said:

"According to league sources, longtime Yankee Masahiro Tanaka is seeking a one-year deal at $15-20 million."...

 

That seems a bit rich for the Angels, but I could see the Angels going after Tanaka on a 1 year deal at a lower salary.

Would fit nicely, along with a trade for Musgrove or Gray.....

[gotbeer]

BTW, that's interesting on Sportrac.  They adjusted Bauers numbers, and now they say his market value is at $29.275 million, instead of the $20 million he was for pretty much the entire offseason.  Someone must have yelled at them that they were comparing the wrong pitchers.  

[Revad]

2 hours ago, ukyah said:

god, i love baseball talk. it's so refreshing to get away from work.

I know I’m bad this might be a sarcasm, but did it involve pitching