The Official 2020-2021 Hot Stove Offseason Thread

[ScottT]

Someone reported on Twitter Luis Castillo going to the Yankees is a done deal.

Someone on Twitter bitch slapped that report.

One has a checkmark. One doesn't. I've heard of both.

Twitter is so cool.

[beatlesrule]

37 minutes ago, ScottT said:

Someone reported on Twitter Luis Castillo going to the Yankees is a done deal.

Someone on Twitter bitch slapped that report.

One has a checkmark. One doesn't. I've heard of both.

Twitter is so cool.

https://www.nj.com/yankees/2021/01/mlb-trade-rumors-yankees-reds-luis-castillo-deal-on-ice-for-now.html

Late Sunday night, Reds general manager Nick Krall responded to rumors of a deal with New York.

“They are completely false. We intend to have (Castillo) as a member of our rotation for 2021,” Krall said, according to a tweet from MLB.com reporter Mark Sheldon.

ESPN reporter Jeff Passan, earlier in the day, shot down the rumors, too.

“Luis Castillo has not been traded to the Yankees,” Passan tweeted. “Stop believing people who consistently get things wrong.”

[Angel Oracle]

3 hours ago, DMVol said:

Would fit nicely, along with a trade for Musgrove or Gray.....

Gray and Tanaka would make combined around $27 million between them, leaving them about $10 million under threshold.

Who to trade for Gray though?

[Docwaukee]

are we considering Tanaka as a realistic option?  I thought it was staying a yankee or going back to Japan?

I don't get the love for him over Quintana.  They've basically been the same pitcher for the last three years 

[gotbeer]

28 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Gray and Tanaka would make combined around $27 million between them, leaving them about $10 million under threshold.

Who to trade for Gray though?

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

Marsh is actually a straight up that would get it done.

But we probably don't want to go there.  Then it gets tricky.  Gray is 35.9 value.  Above value, Trout 83.2, Marsh 36.2, Fletcher 44.7, Adell 54.8.  

Combo above 10 value.  Adams 15.9, Bundy 15.1, Canning 30.1, Detmers 11.2, Heaney 10.8, Ohtani 28.8, Sandoval 10.3.  That's it.  So slim pickings.

And before you ask.  Adams, Detmers, Sandoval for Gray would be accepted according to the site.  

[Bronson]

50 minutes ago, gotbeer said:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

Marsh is actually a straight up that would get it done.

But we probably don't want to go there.  Then it gets tricky.  Gray is 35.9 value.  Above value, Trout 83.2, Marsh 36.2, Fletcher 44.7, Adell 54.8.  

Combo above 10 value.  Adams 15.9, Bundy 15.1, Canning 30.1, Detmers 11.2, Heaney 10.8, Ohtani 28.8, Sandoval 10.3.  That's it.  So slim pickings.

And before you ask.  Adams, Detmers, Sandoval for Gray would be accepted according to the site.  

This may be a dumb question, but why does Rendon have the least amount of trade value on the team?

[Hubs]

3 minutes ago, Bronson said:

This may be a dumb question, but why does Rendon have the least amount of trade value on the team?

Future contract obligations 

[Bronson]

Just now, Hubs said:

Future contract obligations 

Ah got it.

[Pancake Bear]

Would love to see the Angels trade for Castillo, screw the cost, just to give a pair of Fred Rogers middle fingers to all those moronic Yankee fans who thought they could trade Andujar straight up for Castillo. 

[Docwaukee]

3 minutes ago, Bronson said:

This may be a dumb question, but why does Rendon have the least amount of trade value on the team?

the site basically converts future value into dollars and then subtracts it from their current contract.  They use pretty interesting and fairly comprehensive modeling to eval both major and minor leaguers.  The more I mess around on this site the more I've realized it's not just some half assed concoction.  Like other stat based analysis, it's not perfect as it doesn't take into account team needs but it probably shouldn't as it seems the intent is to straight up estimate the overall value of the players in the trade.  

 

[Docwaukee]

5 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Would love to see the Angels trade for Castillo, screw the cost, just to give a pair of Fred Rogers middle fingers to all those moronic Yankee fans who thought they could trade Andujar straight up for Castillo. 

My ultimate goal would be to see a team like the Yanks, Dogs etc. go big on a trade and get raked over the coals only to see the Angels make fairly modest moves and beat that team in the playoffs in 2021.  

There is something secretly satisfying to me about winning with lesser moves.  Like a one or two year deal on a kick ass reliever.  It's even more satisfying to win with your own home grown players.  Don't get me wrong, I would certainly get excited about adding someone like Bauer or other top free agents or frankly winning any way possible, but how good does a team like Tampa feel that their org is smarter than most if not all others.  

[Hubs]

8 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

My ultimate goal would be to see a team like the Yanks, Dogs etc. go big on a trade and get raked over the coals only to see the Angels make fairly modest moves and beat that team in the playoffs in 2021.  

There is something secretly satisfying to me about winning with lesser moves.  Like a one or two year deal on a kick ass reliever.  It's even more satisfying to win with your own home grown players.  Don't get me wrong, I would certainly get excited about adding someone like Bauer or other top free agents or frankly winning any way possible, but how good does a team like Tampa feel that their org is smarter than most if not all others.  

I was a Trevor Bauer or bust guy. But now I think getting a Musgrove or Gray and Mid tier starter like Quintana, Paxton, Walker or Richards gives them depth. Get a reliever for a Claudio contract. Then getting a guy like Joc and call it an offseason.

If you can get any of the free agents for say 2/18 say with incentives and pay 7/11 then you can get Gray, another starter, and Joc for like 25 million in 2021. 

[Second Base]

If we pretend the magic number of what they're willing to spend on 2021 is 25 million, and that 25 million has to pay for two starting pitchers, a reliever and a RF, there are a few iterations, but ultimately the Angels have to be very smart, calculated in their moves. 

The reliever: it feels like the bullpen needs more of a late inning mainstay rather than some random middle reliever. Maybe a Shane Greene, Trevor Rosenthal or Joakim Soria type of pitchers they can try to get for 2/10. 

Just throwing out a guess but Shane Greene for 2/10. Familiar with Minasian from Atlanta, and a solid, steady 7th or 8th inning option for a long time.

20 million left.

The RF: When Minasian or Maddon were talking about a RF, one or both of them mentioned they'd need someone in RF for stability, not necessarily an expensive starter and middle of the order bat. Definitely not a primary focus. So this will likely be an inexpensive expenditure. Thankfully, the market is full off inexpensive options here. Maybe someone like Nick Markakis (also familiar with Minasian from Atlanta) to go out there and platoon. Should only cost 1-2 million. 

18 million left. 

Two starting pitchers: Maddon and Minasian have both mentioned the need for multiple starting pitchers and to Eppler's credit, he left Minasian with a manageable payroll and a solid farm system with surplus in the OF and in AAA. Maddon has expressed that he likes Barria but inferred that he wants a steady presence that can eat innings for that #6 starter spot, suggesting to me that Barria will be used in relief. 

The team clearly needs more than two backend starters to feel good about the rotation, so you have to figure the other starter is the type that slots at the front of the rotation. Bauer makes sense, but isn't coming for 18 million, and certainly doesn't leave room for another starter, even if you backload his contract. 

The Reds entering a rebuild and shedding payroll, and the Angels need for pitching and excess OF prospects lines up quite nicely. 

SP #1: Angels will trade Brandon Marsh and Luis Rengifo to the Reds in return for Sonny Gray and 2 million dollars. The Angels get the ace they want for 8 million, the Reds shed 8 million from payroll in 2021, and 22 million for 2022 and 2023, get an OF prospect to build around, and a starting SS with some upside making the league minimum. 

10 million left. 

For the last rotation spot, Jon Lester, JA Happ, Mike Minor, Garrett Richards etc... See which one you can get for 1/10. You have to figure one of them will take that. You want it to be a shorter term contact because you need to leave open San avenue for one of the young pitchers like Barria, Sandoval, Suarez, Naughton, Detmers or Rodriguez to be able to take the spot and run with it. 

If I had to take a guess as to who it be, I'd say they want a durable veteran. A steady presence that can be a benefit in the clubhouse like Jon Lester, who as recently as 2018 was an all-star and has been an ace for a long time. 

So Shane Greene, Nick Markakis, Sonny Gray and Jon Lester for 25 million. Now that's a team that could do some things. 

 

[Erstad Grit]

29 minutes ago, Second Base said:

If we pretend the magic number of what they're willing to spend on 2021 is 25 million, and that 25 million has to pay for two starting pitchers, a reliever and a RF, there are a few iterations, but ultimately the Angels have to be very smart, calculated in their moves. 

The reliever: it feels like the bullpen needs more of a late inning mainstay rather than some random middle reliever. Maybe a Shane Greene, Trevor Rosenthal or Joakim Soria type of pitchers they can try to get for 2/10. 

Just throwing out a guess but Shane Greene for 2/10. Familiar with Minasian from Atlanta, and a solid, steady 7th or 8th inning option for a long time.

20 million left.

The RF: When Minasian or Maddon were talking about a RF, one or both of them mentioned they'd need someone in RF for stability, not necessarily an expensive starter and middle of the order bat. Definitely not a primary focus. So this will likely be an inexpensive expenditure. Thankfully, the market is full off inexpensive options here. Maybe someone like Nick Markakis (also familiar with Minasian from Atlanta) to go out there and platoon. Should only cost 1-2 million. 

18 million left. 

Two starting pitchers: Maddon and Minasian have both mentioned the need for multiple starting pitchers and to Eppler's credit, he left Minasian with a manageable payroll and a solid farm system with surplus in the OF and in AAA. Maddon has expressed that he likes Barria but inferred that he wants a steady presence that can eat innings for that #6 starter spot, suggesting to me that Barria will be used in relief. 

The team clearly needs more than two backend starters to feel good about the rotation, so you have to figure the other starter is the type that slots at the front of the rotation. Bauer makes sense, but isn't coming for 18 million, and certainly doesn't leave room for another starter, even if you backload his contract. 

The Reds entering a rebuild and shedding payroll, and the Angels need for pitching and excess OF prospects lines up quite nicely. 

SP #1: Angels will trade Brandon Marsh and Luis Rengifo to the Reds in return for Sonny Gray and 2 million dollars. The Angels get the ace they want for 8 million, the Reds shed 8 million from payroll in 2021, and 22 million for 2022 and 2023, get an OF prospect to build around, and a starting SS with some upside making the league minimum. 

10 million left. 

For the last rotation spot, Jon Lester, JA Happ, Mike Minor, Garrett Richards etc... See which one you can get for 1/10. You have to figure one of them will take that. You want it to be a shorter term contact because you need to leave open San avenue for one of the young pitchers like Barria, Sandoval, Suarez, Naughton, Detmers or Rodriguez to be able to take the spot and run with it. 

If I had to take a guess as to who it be, I'd say they want a durable veteran. A steady presence that can be a benefit in the clubhouse like Jon Lester, who as recently as 2018 was an all-star and has been an ace for a long time. 

So Shane Greene, Nick Markakis, Sonny Gray and Jon Lester for 25 million. Now that's a team that could do some things. 

 

How about greene, Puig,  gray,  and hamels?

[DMVol]

8 hours ago, gotbeer said:

.....And before you ask.  Adams, Detmers, Sandoval for Gray would be accepted according to the site.  

I’d give that some serious consideration.....

[BritAngel]

What about Adams,Sandoval, Suarez and Thaiss ?

Keep hold of Detmers

[wopphil]

When you look closely at the dollars, Musgrove makes all the more sense. His salary is low enough that it would still leave enough money to sign almost any starter (and if that starter isn’t Bauer, then a reliever too). Few other good pitchers are available for such a low pay commitment. 

[angelsnationtalk]

8 hours ago, Second Base said:

If we pretend the magic number of what they're willing to spend on 2021 is 25 million, and that 25 million has to pay for two starting pitchers, a reliever and a RF, there are a few iterations, but ultimately the Angels have to be very smart, calculated in their moves. 

The reliever: it feels like the bullpen needs more of a late inning mainstay rather than some random middle reliever. Maybe a Shane Greene, Trevor Rosenthal or Joakim Soria type of pitchers they can try to get for 2/10. 

Just throwing out a guess but Shane Greene for 2/10. Familiar with Minasian from Atlanta, and a solid, steady 7th or 8th inning option for a long time.

20 million left.

The RF: When Minasian or Maddon were talking about a RF, one or both of them mentioned they'd need someone in RF for stability, not necessarily an expensive starter and middle of the order bat. Definitely not a primary focus. So this will likely be an inexpensive expenditure. Thankfully, the market is full off inexpensive options here. Maybe someone like Nick Markakis (also familiar with Minasian from Atlanta) to go out there and platoon. Should only cost 1-2 million. 

18 million left. 

Two starting pitchers: Maddon and Minasian have both mentioned the need for multiple starting pitchers and to Eppler's credit, he left Minasian with a manageable payroll and a solid farm system with surplus in the OF and in AAA. Maddon has expressed that he likes Barria but inferred that he wants a steady presence that can eat innings for that #6 starter spot, suggesting to me that Barria will be used in relief. 

The team clearly needs more than two backend starters to feel good about the rotation, so you have to figure the other starter is the type that slots at the front of the rotation. Bauer makes sense, but isn't coming for 18 million, and certainly doesn't leave room for another starter, even if you backload his contract. 

The Reds entering a rebuild and shedding payroll, and the Angels need for pitching and excess OF prospects lines up quite nicely. 

SP #1: Angels will trade Brandon Marsh and Luis Rengifo to the Reds in return for Sonny Gray and 2 million dollars. The Angels get the ace they want for 8 million, the Reds shed 8 million from payroll in 2021, and 22 million for 2022 and 2023, get an OF prospect to build around, and a starting SS with some upside making the league minimum. 

10 million left. 

For the last rotation spot, Jon Lester, JA Happ, Mike Minor, Garrett Richards etc... See which one you can get for 1/10. You have to figure one of them will take that. You want it to be a shorter term contact because you need to leave open San avenue for one of the young pitchers like Barria, Sandoval, Suarez, Naughton, Detmers or Rodriguez to be able to take the spot and run with it. 

If I had to take a guess as to who it be, I'd say they want a durable veteran. A steady presence that can be a benefit in the clubhouse like Jon Lester, who as recently as 2018 was an all-star and has been an ace for a long time. 

So Shane Greene, Nick Markakis, Sonny Gray and Jon Lester for 25 million. Now that's a team that could do some things. 

 

Definitely a deeper team for sure. I wouldn't say Gray is an Ace, but for the Angels he'd be considered one given how crappy our rotation is. 

I wonder what the actual plan will be financially. The Angels could either push hard with payroll to win it all this year, Or they do another big wave of 1yr deals so they can use cleared payroll in 2022 to sign a big name SS or someone. 

Do I want Bauer? Absolutely. Do I think Arte wants to dish that out? Not at all. 

[gotbeer]

58 minutes ago, BritAngel said:

What about Adams,Sandoval, Suarez and Thaiss ?

Keep hold of Detmers

Says they would accept the trade.  

[mmc]

 

[angelsnationtalk]

2 minutes ago, mmc said:

 

So take Gray off the list then too

[Revad]

5 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

So take Gray off the list then too

Well if Gray is off the list I don’t like that.  He was the best option to me, but whatever just don’t forget that there is a fierce urgency to do something soon

[Angelsfan1984]

 

1 hour ago, Revad said:

Well if Gray is off the list I don’t like that.  He was the best option to me, but whatever just don’t forget that there is a fierce urgency to do something soon

if he’s off the list then they sign Bauer 

[mmc]

 

[angelsnationtalk]

14 minutes ago, mmc said:

 

Really hoping Blue Jays can get Springer. Mets already have a solid rotation so they might go after Brantley if they miss on Springer. 

Likely leaving Bauer between Angels and White Sox