The Official 2020-2021 Hot Stove Offseason Thread

[BTH]

44 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but the "actual" payroll right now is about 151 million. It was 181 in 2019. Arte said the payroll wasn't going down, ergo...

The "actual" payroll right now is around $165 million. That includes players with guaranteed salaries, arb-eligible players, and pre-arb players.

That $151 million number you got doesn't account for the estimated salaries for pre-arb players (which is a little under 11M) and Ohtani's arbitration number (which will be 2.5M or 3M.)

[Inside Pitch]

52 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but the "actual" payroll right now is about 151 million. It was 181 in 2019. Arte said the payroll wasn't going down, ergo...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FsmsUpbOz2RsyxdPSM1oXHHuIE33NhIMEN-7bD0J9mg/edit#gid=1520401900 

It's not 100% but it's always close.

[tdawg87]

16 minutes ago, Trendon said:

The "actual" payroll right now is around $165 million. That includes players with guaranteed salaries, arb-eligible players, and pre-arb players.

That $151 million number you got doesn't account for the estimated salaries for pre-arb players (which is a little under 11M) and Ohtani's arbitration number (which will be 2.5M or 3M.)

Well then we probably shouldn't have added Iglesias.

[BTH]

7 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FsmsUpbOz2RsyxdPSM1oXHHuIE33NhIMEN-7bD0J9mg/edit#gid=1520401900 

It's not 100% but it's always close.

Like you said, it's close but there are two main issues on that spreadsheet: Upton is making 23M in 2021, not 24.7M and it doesn't show the $900,000 of salary relief the Angels got from CIN in the Iglesias trade.

[Erstad Grit]

1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but the "actual" payroll right now is about 151 million. It was 181 in 2019. Arte said the payroll wasn't going down, ergo...

That's what I see as well.

To me that means Angels spend a minimum 30-40 million still.

Maybe Bauer + Goodwin type  +lower level RP or Odorizzi + Tanaka + Goodwin type + Hand type RP 

[BTH]

14 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

That's what I see as well.

To me that means Angels spend a minimum 30-40 million still.

Maybe Bauer + Goodwin type  +lower level RP or Odorizzi + Tanaka + Goodwin type + Hand type RP 

I'd prepare to be disappointed if you think they're going to spend at least 30-40 million. There's a chance they could if Arte opens up his wallet more, but that $151 million number isn't accurate.

[tdawg87]

There needs to be a site that gives accurate numbers. Even if it's an educated guess. I can't find any that even considers arbitration cases and all the other payroll shit. It's basically useless. 

[BTH]

5 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

There needs to be a site that gives accurate numbers. Even if it's an educated guess. I can't find any that even considers arbitration cases and all the other payroll shit. It's basically useless. 

Roster Resource seems to be the closest. Their numbers are accurate (aside from arbitration estimates) and include pre-arb estimates as well.

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/angels

The hardest part to account for seems to be pre-arb estimates, and Roster Resource at least provides an explanation for how they come up with their pre-arb estimates:

1. The "estimated salaries for players not yet eligible for arbitration" figure (which is included in luxury tax and "actual" payroll) presumes that, when factoring DL time, each team will need to pay for 33 player-seasons over the course of the regular season. This number is calculated by subtracting the number of guaranteed and arbitration-year contracts from 33(the number of player-seasons) and then multiplying the number that remains (typically around 10-15) by the league minimum salary.

[Erstad Grit]

42 minutes ago, Trendon said:

I'd prepare to be disappointed if you think they're going to spend at least 30-40 million. There's a chance they could if Arte opens up his wallet more, but that $151 million number isn't accurate.

My sense is people are talking about two different things. There is an actual payroll and a payroll in regard to luxury tax. Pujols salary is 30 million but for luxury tax purposes it's 24 million this year. 

Arte said payroll was going up, yes it could technically be construed as "I'll pay more in salaries this year." However I don't find that reasonable. Would as fans would we look at Upton's salary going up 2 million and Pujols up 1 million and conclude "well Arte is indeed paying more in salaries this year just like he promised!"

I find it more reasonable Arte is referring to luxury tax payroll in which I believe we still have minimum of 30 million of space. 

 

 

[BTH]

13 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

My sense is people are talking about two different things. There is an actual payroll and a payroll in regard to luxury tax. Pujols salary is 30 million but for luxury tax purposes it's 24 million this year. 

Arte said payroll was going up, yes it could technically be construed as "I'll pay more in salaries this year." However I don't find that reasonable. Would as fans would we look at Upton's salary going up 2 million and Pujols up 1 million and conclude "well Arte is indeed paying more in salaries this year just like he promised!"

I find it more reasonable Arte is referring to luxury tax payroll in which I believe we still have minimum of 30 million of space. 

When and where did Arte say that payroll was going up? I haven't seen that, unless I missed something.

[Erstad Grit]

20 minutes ago, Trendon said:

When and where did Arte say that payroll was going up? I haven't seen that, unless I missed something.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/the-angels-will-raise-payroll-in-2020-but-owner-arte-moreno-is-not-going-to-say-how-much/

[Revad]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-postseason-is-a-two-strike-game-and-other-observations-from-the-mlb-playoffs/

[Lou]

9 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/the-angels-will-raise-payroll-in-2020-but-owner-arte-moreno-is-not-going-to-say-how-much/

It's 2021

[34red4]

1 hour ago, Trendon said:

Roster Resource seems to be the closest. Their numbers are accurate (aside from arbitration estimates) and include pre-arb estimates as well.

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/angels

The hardest part to account for seems to be pre-arb estimates, and Roster Resource at least provides an explanation for how they come up with their pre-arb estimates:

1. The "estimated salaries for players not yet eligible for arbitration" figure (which is included in luxury tax and "actual" payroll) presumes that, when factoring DL time, each team will need to pay for 33 player-seasons over the course of the regular season. This number is calculated by subtracting the number of guaranteed and arbitration-year contracts from 33(the number of player-seasons) and then multiplying the number that remains (typically around 10-15) by the league minimum salary.

I took a look at last year’s number and would estimate that this year the pre-arb number will be around $4 million.

That means the estimated payroll is about $158 million for 2021 as things stand. $19 million below last year’s total. 

I agree that it is unwise for those to expect $30+ million in spending available. It could be the case, but there’s nothing to indicate it is. 

[Pancake Bear]

Again, we can learn a lot about budget by looking at who we were in on. 

We were in on McCann at around 10m while expecting to likely get two more pitchers. Presumably we'd have to go cheaper on the pitchers in that case.

We were supposedly in on some level with Realmuto. He's getting at least 15-20. Even if you assume that means we move down to one pitcher and roll the dice, that still paints a picture of what Arte has authorized. 

Based on the above, and given how cheaply Minasian filled up SS, Closer, and Catcher, I'm gonna assume we have at least 20m available. My gut feeling is Arte may go 30 more, but I wouldn't bet on it. That's just an opinion and I have only intuition to base it on. The chances are I'm wrong.

Still, I suspect (again, probably wrong and this will likely turn out to be just wishful thinking) Arte is still open to signing Bauer - he might push the budget a little bit for him if we've got a real shot at him - but the likelihood is against it. But if my guess on the budget is correct, it gives Minasian money to acquire two pitchers either through free agency or the trade market. 

[Erstad Grit]

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-rumors-angels-owner-says-payroll-wont-go-down-in-2021-mets-targeting-new-front-office/

[Revad]

I m so mean now but I agree

[Revad]

32 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Again, we can learn a lot about budget by looking at who we were in on. 

We were in on McCann at around 10m while expecting to likely get two more pitchers. Presumably we'd have to go cheaper on the pitchers in that case.

We were supposedly in on some level with Realmuto. He's getting at least 15-20. Even if you assume that means we move down to one pitcher and roll the dice, that still paints a picture of what Arte has authorized. 

Based on the above, and given how cheaply Minasian filled up SS, Closer, and Catcher, I'm gonna assume we have at least 20m available. My gut feeling is Arte may go 30 more, but I wouldn't bet on it. That's just an opinion and I have only intuition to base it on. The chances are I'm wrong.

Still, I suspect (again, probably wrong and this will likely turn out to be just wishful thinking) Arte is still open to signing Bauer - he might push the budget a little bit for him if we've got a real shot at him - but the likelihood is against it. But if my guess on the budget is correct, it gives Minasian money to acquire two pitchers either through free agency or the trade market. 

You mean with pitching 

[BTH]

38 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-rumors-angels-owner-says-payroll-wont-go-down-in-2021-mets-targeting-new-front-office/

All Arte said was that the payroll was "not going down." He didn't say it was going up.

[Erstad Grit]

15 minutes ago, Trendon said:

All Arte said was that the payroll was "not going down." He didn't say it was going up.

Did you listen to that press conference? He made it clear it was going up. 

[angelsnationtalk]

57 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Again, we can learn a lot about budget by looking at who we were in on. 

We were in on McCann at around 10m while expecting to likely get two more pitchers. Presumably we'd have to go cheaper on the pitchers in that case.

We were supposedly in on some level with Realmuto. He's getting at least 15-20. Even if you assume that means we move down to one pitcher and roll the dice, that still paints a picture of what Arte has authorized. 

Based on the above, and given how cheaply Minasian filled up SS, Closer, and Catcher, I'm gonna assume we have at least 20m available. My gut feeling is Arte may go 30 more, but I wouldn't bet on it. That's just an opinion and I have only intuition to base it on. The chances are I'm wrong.

Still, I suspect (again, probably wrong and this will likely turn out to be just wishful thinking) Arte is still open to signing Bauer - he might push the budget a little bit for him if we've got a real shot at him - but the likelihood is against it. But if my guess on the budget is correct, it gives Minasian money to acquire two pitchers either through free agency or the trade market. 

Yup. Let's say he is willing to push it to $30M. If that's the case then the Angels can still get 2 starters. 

Musgrove is set to earn $4.45M this year. Backload Bauer so it's $25M in year one and then trade for Musgrove.

[BritAngel]

2 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Yup. Let's say he is willing to push it to $30M. If that's the case then the Angels can still get 2 starters. 

Musgrove is set to earn $4.45M this year. Backload Bauer so it's $25M in year one and then trade for Musgrove.

Or gray and I can see the 2021 AL west pennant on the horizon

 

[Cosmo_Kramer]

5 hours ago, Trendon said:

Roster Resource seems to be the closest. Their numbers are accurate (aside from arbitration estimates) and include pre-arb estimates as well.

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/angels

The hardest part to account for seems to be pre-arb estimates, and Roster Resource at least provides an explanation for how they come up with their pre-arb estimates:

1. The "estimated salaries for players not yet eligible for arbitration" figure (which is included in luxury tax and "actual" payroll) presumes that, when factoring DL time, each team will need to pay for 33 player-seasons over the course of the regular season. This number is calculated by subtracting the number of guaranteed and arbitration-year contracts from 33(the number of player-seasons) and then multiplying the number that remains (typically around 10-15) by the league minimum salary.

Pre arb is usually near minimum anyway, so the differences are small

[Cosmo_Kramer]

Roster resource is 100% the site to use for accurate payroll and luxury tax

[tdawg87]

4 hours ago, Erstad Grit said:

Did you listen to that press conference? He made it clear it was going up. 

I would tend to agree, but that's up for interpretation. 

We won't truly know until we're done for the offseason. 

My thing is, if we had such strict payroll restrictions, that means we were never in on Bauer, and I just don't buy that.