Pujols - Retire early or play out contract?

[zenmaster]

It's great to see a resurgent Pujols this year. He is hitting over .250 in late July, has a positive WAR, is walking more, is hitting the ball opposite field etc. With that said do you all think he will play out the remaining two years on his contract or retire? I was certain he'd retire after this season or next at the latest but this recent resurgence may mean he sticks it out. My gut is still telling me he'll retire after this season and take a roll with the Angels org and be compensated nice (since he's leaving like $50M on the table). I know a bunch of you say there's no way he leaves $50M on the table but the more I think about it the more I think he walks away early on a positive note after this season and still gets paid with the org, just not as a player. I'd love for us to keep him in the organization though. He's one of the greatest hitters of all time, is a likable guy, and does a ton for the community.

[floplag]

As long as hes playing at this level, hes the best option we have.  As long as thats the case, till someone is able to pressure him or be clearly better than him, its really not a issue in my opinion.  
We keep thinking this guy or that guy is going to do better, they keep not doing it.
Hes not going to play to the level of the contract, but right now, especially the last couple weeks, hes getting it done.

[totdprods]

Two years ago, things looked pretty grim.

In 2017, at 37, he had a .672 OPS, a .286 OBP, was worth -1.9 WAR, the only time he'd posted negative WAR, and played the field only six times. He came dangerously close (93) to exceeding 100 strikeouts for the first time in his career. 
How often does a 37-year old with that many injury issues rebound this late in their career?

Yet he did. Sort of. In 2018, he picked up 70 games at 1B last year. Scraped out a .700 OPS. Not quite a rebound, but he managed to keep from falling further, and while not dramatically so, managed to kick trends back the other direction. 

Now here we are in 2019, and it's hard to not call this a rebound. While the end result still isn't terribly pretty, he is now basically replicating the same production we got out of him between 2013-2016 - his age 33-36 season, Years Two-Five of the Pujols Contract.
His OPS+ stands at 102, so he's technically above the average MLB hitter - and his .458 SLG is his best since '16.

Crazier still, he's gotten better as the year's gone on. 

• April (27 games): .220/.318/.396/.713
• 5/1-7/21(51 games): .267/.312/.487/.799 with a 32 double, 35 HR, 137 RBI pace. 

And, not only has, but he hasn't DHed since way back on May 12th. He's played 1B in his last 41 games, sporting a .998 fielding percentage.
The 0.6 bWAR he's accumulated has now given him 100.4 on his career as well.

Rosters will expand to 26 in 2020, and I see no reason why Pujols would retire early now. He's arguably playing the best he has in two or three years, obviously feeling better than ever given the amount of 1B he's playing, and he's reversed/corrected a lot of negative trends. 
The Angels should probably use him a little more sparingly as he's sure to naturally wear down still over the remainder of the contract, but the new roster spot should help that, as well as Ohtani picking up some time back on the mound. He obviously still draws a lot of clubhouse water still as well.
 

[jordan]

This again? At this point, I don’t care what Pujols does. 

[Lou]

This stretch will only convince Pujols that he shouldn't retire

[Claude]

[Duren, Duren]

Interesting theme. Here's a hypothetical question.

Assume that Pujols hadn't put up those numbers in St Louis and only had an Angels career. Forget his age, just look at the  Angel numbers.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml

8 years so far, including this season approximately 200 homers and doubles. . 453 slugging. .768 OPS. 259 batting average. Over 700 RBI. 112 OPS +. All as a DH or first baseman. Roughly 25 homers, close to 90 RBI per season. Quality human being, great in the club house and community.

What would be the general opinion about this type of career if it were exclusively with the Angels? 

Unfortunately, you can't forget about the financial question regarding bang for bucks, but try to just think of it purely in baseball productivity. 

I would see it as a good career. Not great, with flaws (such as far more strikeouts than walks, no speed, limited range on defense, injury prone). But I also see consistent power and production results. Not all star level, but reflective of a legitimate major league starter in his role. 

If it weren't for his past life with the Redbirds and his contract  be would be one of those good  Angel franchise guys you think of positively when his career is over. Productive a little above average, good team player. Someone who could have been a useful part of a championship team but not someone who made a vital difference.

Back to the present. Still nice to see him rebound this year. Hopefully he stays consistent and plays out his career with respectable final numbers. Until there is a replacement who can put up better numbers he seems to be the best option at first with some DH time. 

 

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, Duren, Duren said:

Assume that Pujols hadn't put up those numbers in St Louis and only had an Angels career. Forget his age, just look at the  Angel numbers.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml

8 years so far, including this season approximately 200 homers and doubles. . 453 slugging. .768 OPS. 259 batting average. Over 700 RBI. 112 OPS +. All as a DH or first baseman. Quality human being, great in the club house and community.

What would be the general opinion about this type of career if it were exclusively with the Angels? 

So, roughly just double it, and round up a bit to accommodate for his last two Angel years on contract (and say a little better production earlier in his career), a full career of Angel-era Pujols would be...

Probably still be a .260/.330/.470/.800 hitter with 500 doubles, 500 home runs over 16-20 years and 2700 games. Sort of like an Eddie Murray. 

[floplag]

At the end of the day it doesnt matter how he plays, he will never live up to the contract and some people cant see past that when they should have never expected it. 

[Angel Oracle]

The playing 1B, and not DHing, since May 12 makes his strong showing since May 1 remarkable, given being age 39.

His career BA is back up to .301.    Might be able to get through another season in 2020, and keep the .300 career BA and long since pass Mays into 5th spot in career HRs?

Then retire with a year left, and they pay him the $30 million due plus the personal services salary over the length of the personal services contract? 

Looking a lot better than Cabrera (low .700s OPS, only 5 HRs in 88 games), and Cabrera still has 4 1/3 seasons at about $135 million total to go.  

[T.G.]

[red321]

37 minutes ago, Duren, Duren said:

Interesting theme. Here's a hypothetical question.

Assume that Pujols hadn't put up those numbers in St Louis and only had an Angels career. Forget his age, just look at the  Angel numbers.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml

8 years so far, including this season approximately 200 homers and doubles. . 453 slugging. .768 OPS. 259 batting average. Over 700 RBI. 112 OPS +. All as a DH or first baseman. Roughly 25 homers, close to 90 RBI per season. Quality human being, great in the club house and community.

What would be the general opinion about this type of career if it were exclusively with the Angels? 

Unfortunately, you can't forget about the financial question regarding bang for bucks, but try to just think of it purely in baseball productivity. 

I would see it as a good career. Not great, with flaws (such as far more strikeouts than walks, no speed, limited range on defense, injury prone). But I also see consistent power and production results. Not all star level, but reflective of a legitimate major league starter in his role. 

If it weren't for his past life with the Redbirds and his contract  be would be one of those good  Angel franchise guys you think of positively when his career is over. Productive a little above average, good team player. Someone who could have been a useful part of a championship team but not someone who made a vital difference.

Back to the present. Still nice to see him rebound this year. Hopefully he stays consistent and plays out his career with respectable final numbers. Until there is a replacement who can put up better numbers he seems to be the best option at first with some DH time. 

 

I know what this thread is missing...

oh @yk9001

[yk9001]

This shit comes back more often than bad oysters.

[zenmaster]

 

[2112]

Albert is Albert. We'll get what we can from him, all of us knows it was a gamble from the beginning,  and he wouldn't be close to worth his contract at the end. 

Honestly I'm pleased with his play this year,  hopefully he can keep it up.  

[ten ocho recon scout]

2 hours ago, floplag said:

At the end of the day it doesnt matter how he plays, he will never live up to the contract and some people cant see past that when they should have never expected it. 

What about trout? Honest question.

Im not at all against it. But people should probably be prepared for a different mike in about 6 years. Thats the reality of guaranteed contracts.

[Angel Oracle]

1 minute ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

What about trout? Honest question.

Im not at all against it. But people should probably be prepared for a different mike in about 6 years. Thats the reality of guaranteed contracts.

I'm hopeful for up to 8 more seasons of strong play, and then if he struggles the remaining 3-4 seasons, he's still been the franchise player and a future MLB HOFer (first developed by the franchise). 

[gurn67]

For the last few seasons, he should not have been playing more than 4 games a week. Of course, that was never going to happen while he thought he had even the slightest chance of catching Bonds for home runs, or Aaron for RBI's. He will still probably end up at 5th in home runs & 3rd in RBI's with only Ruth & Aaron topping him in both categories. Keeping his legs fresh this season, and putting him in the best starting pitcher match ups has made a big difference. He's a slam dunk first ballot Hall of Famer (should be unanimous) who can hopefully put a cherry on top of his amazing career with one last run at a World Series.

[ten ocho recon scout]

6 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

I'm hopeful for up to 8 more seasons of strong play, and then if he struggles the remaining 3-4 seasons, he's still been the franchise player and a future MLB HOFer (first developed by the franchise). 

Id say hes already there, AO. And hopefully, he ages well...if anyone can, its that guy. No vices, works out all the time, etc etc.

But the reality is hell be mid 30s sooner than we think.... with a lot of miles on his body. We should all accept that father time gets everyone at some point.

 

[Tank]

3 hours ago, jordan said:

This again? At this point, I don’t care what Pujols does. 

 

2 hours ago, True Grich said:

 

2 hours ago, yk9001 said:

This shit comes back more often than bad oysters.

we're going to keep having this thread until the day he calls it quits.

and then it will be followed by endless threads wishing he had done this xx years before.

[floplag]

1 hour ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

What about trout? Honest question.

Im not at all against it. But people should probably be prepared for a different mike in about 6 years. Thats the reality of guaranteed contracts.

Of course, bet in Trout were paying for prime years as well as the inevitable slide, in Pujols case we didnt get that, at least we only got the tail end of it. 

[Pancake Bear]

3 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

What about trout? Honest question.

Im not at all against it. But people should probably be prepared for a different mike in about 6 years. Thats the reality of guaranteed contracts.

Trout was 27 when signing a 12 year extension. Albert signed a 10 year extension at age 34 32. Huge difference. Also, not everyone falls off that quickly. We were also paying for 7 5 earlier seasons. When the first year you’re paying for is age 34 32, that’s a risky deal. 

[Angelsjunky]

3 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

What about trout? Honest question.

Im not at all against it. But people should probably be prepared for a different mike in about 6 years. Thats the reality of guaranteed contracts.

It comes down to how he ages. And we simply don't know at this point. Does he age like Mays, Aaron, and Bonds and have some of his best years in his mid-to-late 30s? Or does he age like Griffey and Pujols and have his last great year around 30 and decline steeply after? Or does he follow the more typical pattern and have his last great year around 32-33, still very good for a couple more years? 

My guess is that the Angels are hoping for Mays/Aaron but paying for something more like typical. But you're right: in 5-6 years, he won't be the same player. The bat might be as good, or nearly as good, but he'll be slowing a bit and probably transitioning to LF. 

But Pujols' decline has been historically bad. Griffey's was similarly bad. Cabrera's is almost as bad. Hopefully Trout will age more gracefully.

[failos]

Yes let him retire so Bour could play 1B full time.

[fan_since79]

He's an insurance policy in case Ohtani's arm blows out again on the mound. That's not a remote possibility. We would need a DH in case Shohei has to go under the knife again. Of course then we would also need an everyday first baseman.