Details on why Shohei Ohtani was not traded

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 hour ago, stormngt said:

We have exclusive rights to negotiate right now.  Give your best offer in off season and if Ohtani doesn't take it, trade him.

We do... but do you honestly think Ohtani isn't going to bare minimum see what else is out there?

He's been here for 5 years now, and very little of it was good times. 

I have no idea what he thinks, and for all I know, he wants to stay here and get paid.

But there's zero reason to think he's not going to get offered huge money from several other teams. Teams in a far better position than we are.

The best scenario is trading him to retool, and making him the same giant offer when he hits FA somewhere else and hope for the best.

We banked on Grienke and struck out. Same as Cole, and a handful of other guys we swore we were in on.

Learn from the past, and don't assume you're going to get anyone to come here. 

I think they have a far better chance luring him to sign here for big money if there's a better team.... which only happens if you trade him now for good players.

[T.G.]

2 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

"Word is Angels owner Arte Moreno didn’t even want to hear offers, so talks barely got off the ground.......Moreno told folks in his front office he simply could not trade Ohtani while Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon were out with injuries."

You can read that lots of different ways and we don't know the context...

I agree with @Dtwncbad's take on all of this. 

I also think that even if Trout and Rendon were healthy, Arte still would not have traded Ohtani.

[T.G.]

Just now, ten ocho recon scout said:

I have no idea what he thinks

That's the thing. Some might think they know and will speculate a ton, but nobody really knows. 

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

The problem is we can't offer any more money than all the people who want Ohtani. Obviously we can pay more than Oakland or whoever. But if Boston, NY, Dodgers, etc etc etc want him, the offers will be in the same ballpark.

Then it becomes "do you want to be rich on a bad team, or rich and winning"

I just don't think the money is going to save us. And I'm sure Arte is prepared to offer Ohtani the world.

I think their best option is to first improve the team this offseason, then have a talk with him in January or February, and offer a really nice contract - like 8/$320M, with an opt out after two or three years. That is hard money to refuse when you don't have a guaranteed contract (I think he'll get arbitration next year, so what, $15M?) - and he can always opt out if the Angels haven't turned things around.

If he says, "Let's wait and see how the season goes," you have one of two choices: trade him (unlikely) or play out the season and hope for the best, which is likely what would happen. They could still trade him in July, although obviously get a much lesser package. If they don't trade him, well, at least they get a compensatory pick after he refuses a QO.

So that's the worst case scenario: We get one more year of Shohei and compensation draft pick, and of course aren't saddled with another huge contract. I mean, as much as I want Shohei to stay, I'm not a big fan of huge contracts, and it isn't like he's without risk. The Angels would be one bad arm tweak away from play a good DH $40M a year for the next 8+ years.

[T.G.]

18 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I think their best option is to first improve the team this offseason, then have a talk with him in January or February, and offer a really nice contract - like 8/$320M, with an opt out after two or three years. That is hard money to refuse when you don't have a guaranteed contract (I think he'll get arbitration next year, so what, $15M?) - and he can always opt out if the Angels haven't turned things around.

If he says, "Let's wait and see how the season goes," you have one of two choices: trade him (unlikely) or play out the season and hope for the best, which is likely what would happen. They could still trade him in July, although obviously get a much lesser package. If they don't trade him, well, at least they get a compensatory pick after he refuses a QO.

So that's the worst case scenario: We get one more year of Shohei and compensation draft pick, and of course aren't saddled with another huge contract. I mean, as much as I want Shohei to stay, I'm not a big fan of huge contracts, and it isn't like he's without risk. The Angels would be one bad arm tweak away from play a good DH $40M a year for the next 8+ years.

I think this is a reasonable expectation... and in my opinion, what is most likely to happen.

[ten ocho recon scout]

12 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I think their best option is to first improve the team this offseason, then have a talk with him in January or February, and offer a really nice contract - like 8/$320M, with an opt out after two or three years. That is hard money to refuse when you don't have a guaranteed contract (I think he'll get arbitration next year, so what, $15M?) - and he can always opt out if the Angels haven't turned things around.

If he says, "Let's wait and see how the season goes," you have one of two choices: trade him (unlikely) or play out the season and hope for the best, which is likely what would happen. They could still trade him in July, although obviously get a much lesser package. If they don't trade him, well, at least they get a compensatory pick after he refuses a QO.

So that's the worst case scenario: We get one more year of Shohei and compensation draft pick, and of course aren't saddled with another huge contract. I mean, as much as I want Shohei to stay, I'm not a big fan of huge contracts, and it isn't like he's without risk. The Angels would be one bad arm tweak away from play a good DH $40M a year for the next 8+ years.

First, to your last point. I totally agree. Nobody wants to admit it, but Ohtani comes with some pretty big risks. Also what nobody wants to admit (because it's sacrelig here) is that Trouts deal is starting to look scary. The past 2 years haven't been good, and he still has 8 to go... and he's only going to get older.

Rendon is already a bad contract. No way to ignore it. He's played less than a full season with us so far in 3 seasons combined, and in that time his OPS+ is 115. He's not going to get better with age. And he still has 4 more years... where he actually costs more than Trout. And the two combined will cost roughly 80 a year...

If we assume Ohtani will cost 35-40 a year.... we're looking at close to 110-120 a year... on 2 aging players (Trout I'll assume still has some great left in him, but the hour glass is still running), and a 3rd player who comes with risk.

Even if Moreno ups the payroll to 250, that still leaves 130 mill or so to fill out 22 other players. 

Which we could do if we had some bona-fide talent coming up... but do we?

As much as I would love Ohtani to be locked up, at this point, I don't any other way to actually win without trading him. And that sucks.

But for the "babe ruth" talk. The Sox were always "cursed" for trading him. But it looks like (from google) the Red Sox sucked in the 20s anyway... would they have been good WITH Ruth? And would Ruth have ever become as good as he became if he stayed on that bad team?... I have no idea. I wasn't born for a few more decades. 

We always talk about never getting value back for trading stars, and how trades like MCab didn't work out at all. But we can say the same with draft picks

[ThisismineScios]

9 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

 

But for the "babe ruth" talk. The Sox were always "cursed" for trading him. But it looks like (from google) the Red Sox sucked in the 20s anyway... would they have been good WITH Ruth? And would Ruth have ever become as good as he became if he stayed on that bad team?... I have no idea. I wasn't born for a few more decades. 

 

Funny little coincidence--Ruth wanted to hit and his Red Sox manager wanted him to pitch. The Yankees wanted him as a hitter, and that factored into him going there. The Angels have let Ohtani do whatever he wants. That means something. And he really does like it here. He's been low key and quiet his whole life. I don't think there's a Hollywood or Manhattan lure for him. He wants to win, but I believe loyalty and trust are very important to him. The Angels have a leg up there. 

I think @Angelsjunky is right--Ohtani waits until spring training (as most extensions actually do) to see where the Angels are at. And if he signs, it's an 8-year deal with opt-outs after 2 years (age 30 season) and maybe 3 years also. The thing is, the offseason can't be a typical Angels offseason. 1 big signing, 2 small signings, 1 insignificant signing, and a minor trade or two. They need to have a really good plan for SS, OF, SP, and the bullpen. Not a "We offered 1-2 SS and so we're good with Fletcher-Rengifo." Perry needs to set his sights high. I think what is working in favor of that is Arte's pride and greed. I've always thought being the laughingstock of the league mattered to him. I don't think it does. So money--losing Ohtani is an enormous loss of a draw. Nobody cares about Rendon or Fletcher's face on Katella. It's Ohtani's that gets people excited. Arte knows that. He doesn't want to lose Ohtani. And him and Perry know what it will take: dramatic improvement. Yes, getting Rendon back helps. Getting Ward and Walsh on track helps. Fletcher too. But our ceiling with those guys is like 85-88 wins. I don't think Ohtani signs unless we have a Padres-like offseason. And it doesn't have to be flashy like trading for 3 big name starters. But building incredible depth by getting good players, good proven players (not Matt Duffy or riding the DFA carousel). 

Do I think it will happen? I hope it does. No reason to bum myself out by saying we sign Thor, Joc Peterson, and Craig Kimbrel and call it a day. I'm going to hope for the best. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

Staying in my negative mode her for a sec, last night Ohtani had a quality start and still lost with no run support. Today he's hit two, and is still in position to lose... another series... to a bad team.

[IheartLA]

4 or 5 of May, Miller, Pepiot, Busch, Vargas, Pages and I think we have to pull the trigger even if it's a blow to Arte's ego sending him across town. His arbitration # is going to be sky high too cutting into our potential funds for FA. We won't be competing anyways with our two big contracts on the IL for 75% of 2023 most likely.

[wopphil]

4 hours ago, stormngt said:

We have exclusive rights to negotiate right now.  Give your best offer in off season and if Ohtani doesn't take it, trade him.

This should have happened the last two weeks - not waited until the off-season (when his trade value will be much lower). 

[stormngt]

2 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

We do... but do you honestly think Ohtani isn't going to bare minimum see what else is out there?

He's been here for 5 years now, and very little of it was good times. 

I have no idea what he thinks, and for all I know, he wants to stay here and get paid.

But there's zero reason to think he's not going to get offered huge money from several other teams. Teams in a far better position than we are.

The best scenario is trading him to retool, and making him the same giant offer when he hits FA somewhere else and hope for the best.

We banked on Grienke and struck out. Same as Cole, and a handful of other guys we swore we were in on.

Learn from the past, and don't assume you're going to get anyone to come here. 

I think they have a far better chance luring him to sign here for big money if there's a better team.... which only happens if you trade him now for good players.

It's hard to turn down 400+ million guaranteed.  

Howuch would he get in free agency if he blows his elbow out again? Like Richardson

Or gets hit in head like batting like Shoemaker?

The strategy should not be hard, make your best offer, If he turns it down trade him in off season.

[stormngt]

20 minutes ago, wopphil said:

This should have happened the last two weeks - not waited until the off-season (when his trade value will be much lower). 

Yes, but value won't go down too much in the off season.

[ten ocho recon scout]

30 minutes ago, stormngt said:

It's hard to turn down 400+ million guaranteed.  

 

Soto just did. 

You're right, it's a lot of money. And you're right, he could get hurt. 

But that's the same as anyone else who's ever waited until FA.

52 minutes ago, wopphil said:

This should have happened the last two weeks - not waited until the off-season (when his trade value will be much lower). 

I think personally we should have done it last offseason, when the the team looked like it made pretty decent improvements, and the thinking was Trout and Rendon were going to be back to normal.

[Robrock30]

The only right answer here even if unpopular is " Lock him Up "!

Be creative structure a deferred payout deal with an above market yield so that present value is fair and record setting.  Get the House in order Stadium deal, Coaching, analytics and scouting.  Find out what went wrong why this once promising  Season slipped away.  I have ideas to offer.  Naiyu Gaikan

[Second Base]

5 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I think it's clear that the bottom line for Arte is butts in the seats. What hasn't quite clicked for him yet is that the best way to get that, is by fielding a good team.

Now to be fair, the Angels payroll is consistently in the bottom half of the top 10 - so he will pay. But the problem is, whenever his GMs have money to work with, it seems Arte steps in and says, "I want that guy!" And the choice is invariably bad.

The one silver lining is that Arte will pay Shohei - or at least make an offer that will be hard to refuse. Shohei sells tickets. But the problem is, for Shohei to even consider it, the Angels have to be good next year. Maybe he signs an extension this offseason with an opt out in two years. But he's going to want to see if the Angels can compete next year.

If they do, I think he'll stay - unless the Yankees swoop in and do something ridiculous like offer him 10/$500M. But I think he'd rather stay with the Angels, if he feels like they'll be good for the foreseeable future.

So nothing new here, but Arte is going to need to spend some money before Shohei contract talks occur. And that money is going to have to be spent well.

Should be an interesting offseason.

Some people aren't motivated by money. It doesn't do it for them. Just as an example, though an imperfect one, myself. I've passed on lucrative job opportunities multiple times in favor of teaching and coaching. Because what does it for me, is time to be a hubby and daddy, but also passion. 

Shohei came over two years early and lost out on a couple hundred million. He even didn't accept the highest offer, which was Seattle's. He took the Angels offer. The evident reason is that Shohei already made enough money to have what he wanted financially in life. So there's something else that makes him tick. 

I think we can all speculate on just what that is, but I think he wanted to do something that hasn't been done before and leave no doubt that he's the best in the world. He couldn't do that in Japan because they'd always say he couldn't do it in America. And I think Shohei didn't want to live in anyone else's shadow. If he went to New York, he'd be compared to Matsui (and Ruth), Seattle, Ichiro, Los Angeles, Nomo, Texas/Chicago, Darvish (at the time).

He signed with the Angels because of the opportunity presented, geographical location, and the personnel in place to possibly win. 

I think his next contract will probably have little to do with money (to an extent, he won't leave hundreds of millions on the table, but given the right spot, it could be a bit). My guess is Shohei goes where he will win (not can, but will, meaning multiple years of winning) and also makes a name for himself. 

And we'll all speculate on that, I think. Los Angeles, obviously. San Diego, only if they don't extend Soto. The Mets, if he's willing to go to the East Coast. Etc...

 

[beatlesrule]

5 hours ago, BigVladdy said:

We'd all rather win without Shohei than lose with him.

Not true. That's like saying all men are jerks or all women only care about money. There are absolutely fans that would rather Shohei stay with the Angels and lose.

[stormngt]

1 hour ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Soto just did. 

You're right, it's a lot of money. And you're right, he could get hurt. 

But that's the same as anyone else who's ever waited until FA.

I think personally we should have done it last offseason, when the the team looked like it made pretty decent improvements, and the thinking was Trout and Rendon were going to be back to normal.

Yes, and it's a risk.  Soto wanted to leave Nationals.  I never said Ohtani won't leave.  I am just saying if ge has a desire to stay then you should get him to sign an extension early.

If Ohtani pulls a Soto then trade him in off season. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

38 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Some people aren't motivated by money. It doesn't do it for them. Just as an example, though an imperfect one, myself. I've passed on lucrative job opportunities multiple times in favor of teaching and coaching. Because what does it for me, is time to be a hubby and daddy, but also passion. 

Shohei came over two years early and lost out on a couple hundred million. He even didn't accept the highest offer, which was Seattle's. He took the Angels offer. The evident reason is that Shohei already made enough money to have what he wanted financially in life. So there's something else that makes him tick. 

I think we can all speculate on just what that is, but I think he wanted to do something that hasn't been done before and leave no doubt that he's the best in the world. He couldn't do that in Japan because they'd always say he couldn't do it in America. And I think Shohei didn't want to live in anyone else's shadow. If he went to New York, he'd be compared to Matsui (and Ruth), Seattle, Ichiro, Los Angeles, Nomo, Texas/Chicago, Darvish (at the time).

He signed with the Angels because of the opportunity presented, geographical location, and the personnel in place to possibly win. 

I think his next contract will probably have little to do with money (to an extent, he won't leave hundreds of millions on the table, but given the right spot, it could be a bit). My guess is Shohei goes where he will win (not can, but will, meaning multiple years of winning) and also makes a name for himself. 

And we'll all speculate on that, I think. Los Angeles, obviously. San Diego, only if they don't extend Soto. The Mets, if he's willing to go to the East Coast. Etc...

 

I think there is a really good chance he signs with the Dodgers or at least the Padres. We Angel fans won’t have to travel far to see him and we might actually get to see some good baseball at the same time. 

Think of it like when your parents split up. You’d get to travel to go see dad and his new girlfriend on the weekends and stay in a house much nicer than the one you were used to living in. Good times.

[Angelsjunky]

41 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Some people aren't motivated by money. It doesn't do it for them. Just as an example, though an imperfect one, myself. I've passed on lucrative job opportunities multiple times in favor of teaching and coaching. Because what does it for me, is time to be a hubby and daddy, but also passion. 

Shohei came over two years early and lost out on a couple hundred million. He even didn't accept the highest offer, which was Seattle's. He took the Angels offer. The evident reason is that Shohei already made enough money to have what he wanted financially in life. So there's something else that makes him tick. 

I think we can all speculate on just what that is, but I think he wanted to do something that hasn't been done before and leave no doubt that he's the best in the world. He couldn't do that in Japan because they'd always say he couldn't do it in America. And I think Shohei didn't want to live in anyone else's shadow. If he went to New York, he'd be compared to Matsui (and Ruth), Seattle, Ichiro, Los Angeles, Nomo, Texas/Chicago, Darvish (at the time).

He signed with the Angels because of the opportunity presented, geographical location, and the personnel in place to possibly win. 

I think his next contract will probably have little to do with money (to an extent, he won't leave hundreds of millions on the table, but given the right spot, it could be a bit). My guess is Shohei goes where he will win (not can, but will, meaning multiple years of winning) and also makes a name for himself. 

And we'll all speculate on that, I think. Los Angeles, obviously. San Diego, only if they don't extend Soto. The Mets, if he's willing to go to the East Coast. Etc...

 

Or the Angels - if they're good enough. I still believe that he wants to win with the Angels more than anything else. I think he likes the Angels, probably playing with Trout. But if they continue to suck, I think he'll go elsewhere. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

5 hours ago, T.G. said:

That's the thing. Some might think they know and will speculate a ton, but nobody really knows. 

And even when he tries to tell us, it's in Japanese. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

38 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I think there is a really good chance he signs with the Dodgers or at least the Padres. We Angel fans won’t have to travel far to see him and we might actually get to see some good baseball at the same time. 

Think of it like when your parents split up. You’d get to travel to go see dad and his new girlfriend on the weekends and stay in a house much nicer than the one you were used to living in. Good times.

And all your asshole friends are going to never shut up about how much hotter your stepmom is than your real mom.

 

Amd none of us are going to admit that our stepmom is hot.

 

[Vlad27Trout27]

Well what ever the reason is, Arte and Perry have 1 off-season and 100 mil to get this teams into the playoff, deep playoffs and than have a shot to re-sign Othani.

[gurn67]

7 hours ago, stormngt said:

We have exclusive rights to negotiate right now.  Give your best offer in off season and if Ohtani doesn't take it, trade him.

Exactly what the Nationals did. Make your best offer, and see what the response is from Ohtani and his agent. If the reaction is similar to Trout's, then you get it done. If it's similar to Soto's, you trade him for the best haul possible. Just letting him go would be the most disastrous decision this franchise has ever made. Plus, by trading him to ABD (Anybody but the Dodgers), Arte lessens the chance of having his nightmare scenario unfold of having Ohtani sign there in 18 months.

[Angels_Make_Me_Drink]

8 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

Attendance has dropped by about 6K a game compared to 2019 (using that as a reference point since it was the last pre-pandemic season), one of the biggest drops in all of MLB. Arte's probably freaking out. 

Its almost as if your team is dog shit year after year after year with no signs of improvement and no hope, people stop caring. Factor in a pandemic, an exciting team in Los Angeles and an exciting team down in San Diego...I hope the drop in attendance lights a fire under Moreno's ass to actually give the GM some spending room to address all of the needs. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

Roger Lodge made a great point earlier today. He said if Ohtani wins BACK TO BACK MVPs that his trade value would be better next trade deadline, so it was smart not to trade him now.

That would probably be more valuable than club control.

Now I really hope Judge doesn't win MVP, and then teams won't want Ohtani.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That guy is clueless.