Angels sign Jose Quintana (1 year, $8 million)

[T.G.]

[ukyah]

7 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Hey good news is we have about 6 total #3-#4 guys..... woo.....

Same as when we had Teheran, Harvey and Cahill..... 

jesus you guys.

none of teheran, harvey or cahill were 3 or 4 guys. they were absolute horse shit. if quintana ends up being terrible as well, then all of you sky is falling gloomers can go on and on. but no matter how it turns out the angels and other teams are always going to sign journeyman pitchers to one year contracts in an attempt to fill out their rotations and bullpens. you might as well accept it and hope that you're getting one of the ones more likely to succeed.

[Warfarin]

1 hour ago, ukyah said:

jesus you guys.

none of teheran, harvey or cahill were 3 or 4 guys. they were absolute horse shit. if quintana ends up being terrible as well, then all of you sky is falling gloomers can go on and on. but no matter how it turns out the angels and other teams are always going to sign journeyman pitchers to one year contracts in an attempt to fill out their rotations and bullpens. you might as well accept it and hope that you're getting one of the ones more likely to succeed.

Yeah, it's odd to me to see all the comparisons to Teheran, Harvey, and Cahill.  Those were Eppler's moves.  Minasian is a different GM.  Quintana has a much better recent history than those pitchers had.  The only commonality is they signed a one year deal.  

Is Quintana an ace?  Of course not.  But for a 1/8 deal, he's a solid bet to be a solid #3, and that's tremendous value.  Minasian did a great job.

[ukyah]

35 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Yeah, it's odd to me to see all the comparisons to Teheran, Harvey, and Cahill.  Those were Eppler's moves.  Minasian is a different GM.  Quintana has a much better recent history than those pitchers had.  The only commonality is they signed a one year deal.  

Is Quintana an ace?  Of course not.  But for a 1/8 deal, he's a solid bet to be a solid #3, and that's tremendous value.  Minasian did a great job.

hopefully, so.

i'm neither going to crown minasian or throw quintana in the trash heap. like i said, all teams do this, the angels have had a run of shit luck on signing pitchers for a good while now. i don't even put it at eppler's fault entirely, sometimes you just run bad, and sometimes you compound that by letting it affect your decision making.

to be honest, i'd have liked the angels to sign paxton. i realize the need for innings and his shortcomings, but these short term deals, which i think is what paxton will get, really pay off when you go for homeruns. paxton has a lot of that potential, but quintana has a fair amount of his own. i thought harvey did too, but it didn't work out. teheran was more of the antithesis of that strategy. cahill is from my hometown, and he was a shit signing before he even pitched. i would have rubbed eppler's nose in that signing.

hopefully, the angels wind up with bauer, puig/pederson, reliever. 

i'd be real cool with that in the next 14 days or less.

[Warfarin]

14 minutes ago, ukyah said:

hopefully, so.

i'm neither going to crown minasian or throw quintana in the trash heap. like i said, all teams do this, the angels have had a run of shit luck on signing pitchers for a good while now. i don't even put it at eppler's fault entirely, sometimes you just run bad, and sometimes you compound that by letting it affect your decision making.

to be honest, i'd have liked the angels to sign paxton. i realize the need for innings and his shortcomings, but these short term deals, which i think is what paxton will get, really pay off when you go for homeruns. paxton has a lot of that potential, but quintana has a fair amount of his own. i thought harvey did too, but it didn't work out. teheran was more of the antithesis of that strategy. cahill is from my hometown, and he was a shit signing before he even pitched. i would have rubbed eppler's nose in that signing.

hopefully, the angels wind up with bauer, puig/pederson, reliever. 

i'd be real cool with that in the next 14 days or less.

If we don't sign Bauer or trade for Gray, I think Paxton is an intriguing possibility.  Another high-upside SP who has a strong track record but a down year last year.

As for Puig/Pederson - I think we need another legit LHH, so hence my desire for Pederson.  He is a platoon player, so he's worth quite a bit less than Brantley IMO, and I think he'd help bridge the gap to Marsh/Adell.

[eligrba4ever]

Well, I dunno. $8M might be double what Quintana is probably worth.

Is this a Matt Harvey-class reclamation project?

Maybe I'm just a skeptic when it comes to these bargain retreads.

Wake me if something important happens.

 

[Stradling]

5 minutes ago, eligrba4ever said:

Well, I dunno. $8M might be double what Quintana is probably worth.

Is this a Matt Harvey-class reclamation project?

Maybe I'm just a skeptic when it comes to these bargain retreads.

Wake me if something important happens.

 

No

[rafibomb]

5 minutes ago, eligrba4ever said:

Well, I dunno. $8M might be double what Quintana is probably worth.

Is this a Matt Harvey-class reclamation project?

Maybe I'm just a skeptic when it comes to these bargain retreads.

Wake me if something important happens.

 

 

Quintana was projected to make anywhere from 7-11 million so definitely not getting paid double than what he is worth.

Also he is the furthest thing from a reclamation project.

[rafibomb]

Fangraphs: Angels Sign José Quintana, Who Is Still Probably Underrated

The reality, though, is that Quintana was still pretty good during his time on the North Side. He was the Cubs’ best pitcher over the remainder of the 2017 season, and though the following year was his worst as a major leaguer, he still managed a 4.03 ERA, 4.43 FIP and 1.7 WAR. His 2019 season looked more like his White Sox days, as he posted 3.5 WAR, a 3.80 FIP and a 4.68 ERA, the latter of which was hurt by his left-on-base rate being nearly nine points lower than his career average. Last year was a lost one for Quintana, but as disappointed as some Cubs fans may be in his tenure with the club, his numbers haven’t deteriorated over the years the way some would think.

 

José Quintana, 2015-19

Year	FB Velocity	Exit Velocity	Barrel%	K%	BB%	Whiff%	xwOBA
2015	92.0 mph	88.0 mph	4.3%	20.5%	5.1%	21.8%	.314
2016	92.6 mph	88.2 mph	4.5%	21.6%	6.0%	18.6%	.300
2017	92.5 mph	87.6 mph	5.9%	26.2%	7.7%	21.2%	.315
2018	92.0 mph	89.4 mph	6.1%	21.4%	9.2%	20.8%	.327
2019	91.6 mph	90.0 mph	5.7%	20.4%	6.2%	20.9%	.333

SOURCE: Baseball Savant

Quintana was regarded as a model of consistency with the White Sox, and those days aren’t over. He still succeeds with the same general mix of pitches he always has, and his velocity is steady.

Yet Quintana’s contract with the Angels suggests skepticism within the industry. He got the same deal as Robbie Ray, who is coming off a 6.50 FIP in 51.2 innings last year, and fell a few million short of Corey Kluber, Drew Smyly and Mike Minor. Those pitchers arguably possess greater upside, but it’s still surprising to see his durability and consistency not get him a larger reward. In his Top 50 Free Agents list, Craig Edwards suggested one year and $11 million for him, while the crowdsource median handed him two years and $20 million. The vast majority of free agents have been able to beat their projections this winter, some by a lot, but Quintana fell well short.

 

[Angelsjunky]

The more I think about it, the more I feel that this was a really smart signing.

We pretty much have to ignore 2020, as he cut his finger. From 2013-19 he was 11th best in the majors in fWAR among all starters, almost exactly the same as David Price. Even if he only returns to being a 3 WAR pitcher, that's Heaney at his best - in other words, a solid #3.

 

 

[Pancake Bear]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

The more I think about it, the more I feel that this was a really smart signing.

We pretty much have to ignore 2020, as he cut his finger. From 2013-19 he was 11th best in the majors in fWAR among all starters, almost exactly the same as David Price. Even if he only returns to being a 3 WAR pitcher, that's Heaney at his best - in other words, a solid #3.

 

 

My only concern is any lingering issues from the injury. Assuming it healed fine, he ought to be able to bounce back fine. 

[Chuck]

6 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

My only concern is any lingering issues from the injury. Assuming it healed fine, he ought to be able to bounce back fine. 

I posted earlier in the thread after he came back him looking really sharp. 

Here's some more from last year.

 

[Pancake Bear]

4 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

I posted earlier in the thread after he came back him looking really sharp. 

Here's some more from last year.

 

Yeah, I hadn't realized he pitched after the injury healed. Threw ten innings at a level comparable to pre-injury. Should be fine. Won't be overly stretched out, but a lot of guys will have that problem this year. Should be fine.

[Chuck]

4 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Yeah, I hadn't realized he pitched after the injury healed. Threw ten innings at a level comparable to pre-injury. Should be fine. Won't be overly stretched out, but a lot of guys will have that problem this year. Should be fine.

Yep. He's also just less than two years away from this gem against the Phillies. 

 

[Docwaukee]

According to FG, Quintana essentially abandoned his cut fastball when he joined the cubs.  I think the cutter has lost favor for sure over the last few years, but it makes me wonder if that's why he was more successful for the CWS and whether he might try to bring it back.  

I could also see Quintana having a positive effect on some of the young pitchers due to his consistency.  

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

On 1/19/2021 at 8:14 PM, Warfarin said:

Incredible value.  Only a one year commitment.  Fantastic move.

And I hate to say it.... But, if we are out of it! He would be a sought after starting arm at that price tag at the trade deadline!

[Docwaukee]

5 minutes ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

And I hate to say it.... But, if we are out of it! He would be a sought after starting arm at that price tag at the trade deadline!

a very good point.  Could be true of Bundy and Heaney as well.  And either of the Iglesias.  

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

12 pages, Damn you guys are all over the place! Screw you guys I'm going home.

[Revad]

34 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

a very good point.  Could be true of Bundy and Heaney as well.  And either of the Iglesias.  

Win or trade a good portion of the team, could we just win

[Warfarin]

9 hours ago, rafibomb said:

Fangraphs: Angels Sign José Quintana, Who Is Still Probably Underrated

The reality, though, is that Quintana was still pretty good during his time on the North Side. He was the Cubs’ best pitcher over the remainder of the 2017 season, and though the following year was his worst as a major leaguer, he still managed a 4.03 ERA, 4.43 FIP and 1.7 WAR. His 2019 season looked more like his White Sox days, as he posted 3.5 WAR, a 3.80 FIP and a 4.68 ERA, the latter of which was hurt by his left-on-base rate being nearly nine points lower than his career average. Last year was a lost one for Quintana, but as disappointed as some Cubs fans may be in his tenure with the club, his numbers haven’t deteriorated over the years the way some would think.

 

José Quintana, 2015-19

Year	FB Velocity	Exit Velocity	Barrel%	K%	BB%	Whiff%	xwOBA
2015	92.0 mph	88.0 mph	4.3%	20.5%	5.1%	21.8%	.314
2016	92.6 mph	88.2 mph	4.5%	21.6%	6.0%	18.6%	.300
2017	92.5 mph	87.6 mph	5.9%	26.2%	7.7%	21.2%	.315
2018	92.0 mph	89.4 mph	6.1%	21.4%	9.2%	20.8%	.327
2019	91.6 mph	90.0 mph	5.7%	20.4%	6.2%	20.9%	.333

SOURCE: Baseball Savant

Quintana was regarded as a model of consistency with the White Sox, and those days aren’t over. He still succeeds with the same general mix of pitches he always has, and his velocity is steady.

Yet Quintana’s contract with the Angels suggests skepticism within the industry. He got the same deal as Robbie Ray, who is coming off a 6.50 FIP in 51.2 innings last year, and fell a few million short of Corey Kluber, Drew Smyly and Mike Minor. Those pitchers arguably possess greater upside, but it’s still surprising to see his durability and consistency not get him a larger reward. In his Top 50 Free Agents list, Craig Edwards suggested one year and $11 million for him, while the crowdsource median handed him two years and $20 million. The vast majority of free agents have been able to beat their projections this winter, some by a lot, but Quintana fell well short.

 

This is a great article.

Betting on a rebound from Quintana is a much different gamble than betting on a rebound from Matt. Harvey or Teheran.

Quintana has essentially been a quality starter his entire career, and moreover, has been very durable.  A fluke injury last year sidelined him, but assuming he avoids another fluke injury, he should likely be able to contribute a good amount of innings and be a solid 2+ fWAR pitcher.  Again, not an ace, and if he is our only pitching addition, that sucks.  But if we do indeed add another SP who is rated higher than him, whether that's Bauer, Gray, etc, then I'd say we would have successfully significant improved our rotation.

One of Bauer/Gray, Bundy, Heaney, Quintana, Canning, and Ohtani should make for a very solid rotation.  Barria is out of options, so if everyone is healthy, he starts off in the pen, but my guess is at least one pitcher will have some kind of nagging injury that will sideline them to start the season, which means Barria likely will start off in the rotation for whomever is out.

Sandoval will be in AAA, stretched out and next man up.  That gives us 8 quality starting pitchers, which all teams need these days to navigate through a 162 game season.

Again, Quintana is a very solid move at a very low price.  Minasian is doing a great job of acquiring guys on 1-year deals (both Iglesias, Claudio, Quintana) - it keeps the long-term payroll low, it gives our farm system time to develop and get ready to reach the majors, and it also keeps the players motivated to do well, since the better they do entering free agency, the larger their contracts will be.

[Angels 1961]

15 hours ago, Erstad Grit said:

You literally asked "before"

now it's befive

[Angelsjunky]

Another way to look at it is that the Angels now have three veteran guys who are solid #3s (one of whom performed as a #2 last year, and another who had #2 caliber seasons). They also have three guys who have flashed #3 potential, two of whom have established a solid #4 floor, and one guy with ace potential. 
 

After that, they have a handful of minor leaguers who could provide solid depth, and two guys upside prospects who could be ready as soon as later 2021.

The point being, rotation depth is improving. The Angels still lack a bonafide ace, but they have a couple guys who could perform at a #2 level, and a couple guys with elite stuff. And they’re probably still in on Bauer. If they get him, I really like our rotation. If they don’t, it is still at least pretty solid, especially if they sign one more guy (e.g. Richards).

 

Edited January 21, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[34red4]

SP fWAR rank 2018

• Bundy - 1.0, 117th
• Heaney - 3.1, 29th
• Quintana - 1.6, 87th

SP fWAR rank 2019

• Bundy - 2.4, 55th
• Heaney - 1.2, 104th
• Quintana - 3.2, 38th
• Canning - 1.3, 95th

SP fWAR rank 2020

• Bundy - 2.0, 12th
• Heaney - 1.4, 34th
• Quintana - 0.2, NR
• Canning - 0.8, 68th

SP fWAR rank 2018-2020

• Bundy - 5.4, 47th
• Heaney - 5.6, 46th
• Quintana - 4.9, 57th

SP fWAR rank 2019-2020

• Bundy - 4.5, 29th
• Heaney - 2.7, 67th
• Quintana - 3.3, 51st
• Canning - 2.3, 82nd

[34red4]

7 minutes ago, Jinzu said:

SP fWAR rank 2018

• Bundy - 1.0, 117th
• Heaney - 3.1, 29th
• Quintana - 1.6, 87th

SP fWAR rank 2019

• Bundy - 2.4, 55th
• Heaney - 1.2, 104th
• Quintana - 3.2, 38th
• Canning - 1.3, 95th

SP fWAR rank 2020

• Bundy - 2.0, 12th
• Heaney - 1.4, 34th
• Quintana - 0.2, NR
• Canning - 0.8, 68th

SP fWAR rank 2018-2020

• Bundy - 5.4, 47th
• Heaney - 5.6, 46th
• Quintana - 4.9, 57th

SP fWAR rank 2019-2020

• Bundy - 4.5, 29th
• Heaney - 2.7, 67th
• Quintana - 3.3, 51st
• Canning - 2.3, 82nd

By the numbers:

Bundy has been a #4, #2, #1. Settling closer to a #1/#2.

Heaney has been a #1, #4, #2. Settling closer to #2/#3.

Quintana has been a #3, #2. Settling closer to a #2.

Canning has been a #4, #3. Settling closer to a #3.

[Taylor]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Quintana will be better than Teheran and Harvey.