The Official 2020-2021 Hot Stove Offseason Thread

[Warfarin]

7 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

It doesn't become a burden at all. Even after 2020 the payroll starts clearing up. The Angels could give him $25M for 4yr and not worry about being tied up. 

I do agree that they might not sign him. I feel like they'll talk and give him an offer but they won't get into a bidding war. Let's say they offer 4yr/$100M and then discuss what the front office has to offer, the coaching staff, and the scouting/analytical, they'll have Trout or someone chat with him then they'll say take it or leave it. 

They'll make an offer, but the offer won't change. 

You have to take into consideration arbitration and other contracts man.  That's what most fans fail to do - they just say oh, Pujols and Upton will be off the books, we're set!

But next year, Fletcher will start arbitration.  He'll probably warrant 4-5mil based on how he's been playing.  If Ohtani actually has a good year, his arbitration figure might bump up to 6 mil or so.  Do we want to re-sign one of Bundy or Heaney?  We likely need to, and if so, that's another 15-20mil AAV being added potentially, depending on how they pitch in their final year.  As you can see, Fletcher + Ohtani + re-signing one of our SP already effectively takes the place of Pujols' salary coming off the books.  Money gets spent quickly.

So, yes - Pujols is gone in a year and then Upton in two, but arbitration guys will get more expensive and there's the fact that we will likely need to re-sign one of our two SP free agents.

[Warfarin]

So, piggybacking off the fact that the Reds are essentially in fire sale mode..

Perhaps an expanded deal could work:  OF Adell, SS/3B Jackson, SP Barria (or a SP prospect, if they prefer, not named Detmers/CRod), and either 2B Jones or 1B/3B Thaiss for SP Gray, LHRP Garret, and LF/RF Winkler.

This would effectively solve most of our remaining issues - we'd get a #1/#2 SP in Gray, a lefty reliever in Garret, and Winkler is a LHH corner OF with 3 years of control remaining.  All we'd need is a 2nd SP via FA and a backup catcher.  The cost of Gray + Garrett + Winker would be roughly 14mil or so, which would enable us to add someone like Odorizzi (~11-13mil/yr) and a good backup catcher.  When Marsh is ready, Winker can pivot to LF, with Upton playing more of a reserve role thereafter.

Rotation:  Gray, Bundy, Heaney, Odorizzi, Canning, Ohtani*

Bullpen:  Iglesias, Pena, Mayers, Buttrey, Claudio, Garrett, Reyes, Rivera

Lineup:  2B Fletcher, 1B Walsh, CF Trout, 3B Rendon, RF Winker, LF Upton, DH Ohtani, C Stassii, SS Iglesias

Bench:  1B/DH Pujols, IF/OF Barrett (or Rengifo), IF/OF Ward, C Suzuki (or whomever)

[Junkballer]

8 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

It doesn't become a burden at all. Even after 2020 the payroll starts clearing up. The Angels could give him $25M for 4yr and not worry about being tied up. 

 

Not only will the payroll that gets cleared off be offset by arb and other pitching/positional needs (as mentioned by Warfarin), I expect that Minasian has a placeholder for some of that cleared payroll for a 2022 shortstop, either FA or resigning Iglesias.  Either way, it will be a substantial increase over the current 3.5m slotted for the position.

[Lou]

Dipoto's assistant quit on him.

[mmc]

 

[greginpsca]

13 hours ago, Trendon said:

I think Bauer is going to want more than 4/$100M.

Payroll does clear up after 2020, but the Angels will also need to re-sign or replace Bundy and Heaney.

Yep, even with contracts coming off the books, every year there are holes to fill on the roster. That is why payroll flexibility is so important.

[mmc]

5 hours ago, Warfarin said:

So, piggybacking off the fact that the Reds are essentially in fire sale mode..

Perhaps an expanded deal could work:  OF Adell, SS/3B Jackson, SP Barria (or a SP prospect, if they prefer, not named Detmers/CRod), and either 2B Jones or 1B/3B Thaiss for SP Gray, LHRP Garret, and LF/RF Winkler.

This would effectively solve most of our remaining issues - we'd get a #1/#2 SP in Gray, a lefty reliever in Garret, and Winkler is a LHH corner OF with 3 years of control remaining.  All we'd need is a 2nd SP via FA and a backup catcher.  The cost of Gray + Garrett + Winker would be roughly 14mil or so, which would enable us to add someone like Odorizzi (~11-13mil/yr) and a good backup catcher.  When Marsh is ready, Winker can pivot to LF, with Upton playing more of a reserve role thereafter.

Rotation:  Gray, Bundy, Heaney, Odorizzi, Canning, Ohtani*

Bullpen:  Iglesias, Pena, Mayers, Buttrey, Claudio, Garrett, Reyes, Rivera

Lineup:  2B Fletcher, 1B Walsh, CF Trout, 3B Rendon, RF Winker, LF Upton, DH Ohtani, C Stassii, SS Iglesias

Bench:  1B/DH Pujols, IF/OF Barrett (or Rengifo), IF/OF Ward, C Suzuki (or whomever)

The Reds would never make a trade like that.  They are looking to move out salary, not trade everyone on the roster with value.  There's no chance they throw in Winker and Garrett in a Sonny Gray deal just to get back pocket lint in addition to whatever the value of Gray would be

[CanadianHalo]

Maybe the Angels can take on Castellanos crappy contract for Castillo and Gray. All 3 equal about 30 million.

Of course it would cost us the farm and then some still but whatever

[greginpsca]

I still like the idea of a Musgrove trade, along with getting Jacob Stallings from the Pirates. Fills 2 holes on the roster.

[greginpsca]

3 minutes ago, CanadianHalo said:

Maybe the Angels can take on Castellanos crappy contract for Castillo and Gray. All 3 equal about 30 million.

Of course it would cost us the farm and then some still but whatever

God no. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

I don't think the Reds are really looking to move Gray, just like the Rays aren't really looking to move Snell. In fact I don't think any of these teams are really looking to move any of these guys. Yes they may be open to it if a team tempts them but none of them are really on the market.

So the more and more I look at the market the more I think we are limited to who is available in FA and those prices are probably only increasing, even for the mid and lower tier guys.

[Pancake Bear]

Slow market should speed up at least with Sugano since he's on a timeline. Things could domino from there.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

On 12/18/2020 at 10:10 AM, Hubs said:

He wasn’t projected to get 1.3 M.

It was 1.8 to 2.8 so revise my Above to be 1.25.

He made 1.395M last year he would had been over 1.8-2.2M if he stayed and went through the arbitration process.

[Second Base]

12 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I don't think the Reds are really looking to move Gray, just like the Rays aren't really looking to move Snell. In fact I don't think any of these teams are really looking to move any of these guys. Yes they may be open to it if a team tempts them but none of them are really on the market.

So the more and more I look at the market the more I think we are limited to who is available in FA and those prices are probably only increasing, even for the mid and lower tier guys.

"Sources" indicate the Reds are open for business and will be rebuilding this off-season. Mostly Sonny Gray and Eugenio Suarez. Their own GM has done the political double speak routine when questioned, where he neither confirms or denies anything.  Most GM's are pretty quick to deny reports of trading their franchise cornerstones because they don't want to have to answer to players and agents like that.

Since he didn't deny it, it comes across almost as an open admission that he's going to trade their valuable assets. 

So I expect Sonny Gray is going to be dealt. But given the limited resources available on the market, I think it's likely the asking price is sky high, which means Gray probably won't be traded until January or February.

[Warfarin]

52 minutes ago, mmc said:

The Reds would never make a trade like that.  They are looking to move out salary, not trade everyone on the roster with value.  There's no chance they throw in Winker and Garrett in a Sonny Gray deal just to get back pocket lint in addition to whatever the value of Gray would be

Right, likely not.  If they truly are in full-on sell off mode though, it would behoove them to trade players who are beginning to become more expensive but not quite there just yet to help procure talent that'll better fit their future playoff timeline.

Especially a corner OF and relief pitcher - those are positions that are not that hard to find talent in, and it could benefit them to try to trade those players now, as opposed to watching them lose more trade value after a year.

That said, if their intent is to reload and contend next year, then sure, I don't see them moving those guys.  But if they are going to trade Gray, Suarez, etc, then it doesn't seem like immediate contention is something they are looking at.

[Lou]

I don't know what the Reds will do.

[tdawg87]

4 minutes ago, Lou said:

I don't know what the Reds will do.

I do.

[Lou]

1 minute ago, tdawg87 said:

I do.

I know.

[Redondo]

31 minutes ago, Lou said:

I don't know what the Reds will do.

Dirty commies.

Wait, is this the political forum?

[Docwaukee]

I think the Pirates are gonna want an unreasonable return for Musgrove.   

[tdawg87]

50 minutes ago, Lou said:

I know.

[Redondo]

35 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I think the Pirates are gonna want an unreasonable return for Musgrove.   

You have to think so

[Docwaukee]

8 minutes ago, Redondo said:

You have to think so

they got fleeced on their last two significant trades.  I am sure the expectation is that the new front office doesn't let that happen again.  

I still can't believe they made that deal for Archer.  Not only did they give up Meadows and Glasnow, the ptbnl was Shane Baz who is now pretty much a consensus top 100 guy.  The guy throws 100 mph and probably has to move to the pen but he could end up an elite reliever at the least.  

[ukyah]

7 hours ago, Lou said:

Dipoto's assistant quit on him.

to be fair he's 50. so, i assume he's getting his affairs in order while he prepares for death.

[Lou]

6 minutes ago, ukyah said:

to be fair he's 50. so, i assume he's getting his affairs in order while he prepares for death.

I wonder if he'll leave a note.