The Official 2020-2021 Hot Stove Offseason Thread

[angelsnationtalk]

Alright so here's what's left for top pitching arms on the FA market (SP and RP). Also listed are top teams linked to these guys. 

Trevor Bauer (SP) Angels, Mets, Blue Jays, Dodgers
Masahiro Tanaka (SP) Blue Jays, Japan, Yankees
Jake Odorizzi (SP) Angels, Red Sox, Giants, Blue Jays, Twins
James Paxton (SP) Blue Jays, (+20 teams that showed up to him showcase)
Trevor Rosenthal (RP). Not much news. Maybe Padres? Mets/Angels could be in
Alex Colome (RP) White Sox, Red Sox, Phillies, Padres, Twins

Let's play worst case scenario here and assume these signings happen:
Tanaka goes to Japan
Odorizzi goes to either Twins or Red Sox
Paxton goes to Blue Jays
Rosenthal goes to Padres
Colome goes to White Sox

Let's assume our plan was to sign Odorizzi, Rosenthal and then RF depth guy.
Does Arte hit the "oh shit" button and push for Bauer the way he did last year with Rendon after missing out on Cole?
The Angels signed Quintana to be an innings-eating mid-back rotation arm. The second piece they want to get has to be a #2 guy at least.  
 

Edited January 25, 2021 by angelsnationtalk

[Second Base]

Watching some late night baseball pron, and came across Shohei Ohtani highlights. And it genuinely in reminded me this:

Shohei Ohtani is probably the most important acquisition heading into 2021. He's the difference between the Angels bring a playoff team and the Angels being an overpaid 80-85 win team. 

We still haven't seen the unicorn fully healthy yet. We may never. I don't know. But if he is healthy, then the amazing happens.

1. We've got our staff ace that we've all been pining for. 

2. We've got an elite left handed bat to plant firmly in the middle of the lineup. 

Optimistically, the best is still yet to come for Shohei. His rookie year, his pitching numbers were inflated by had outings where he tried pitching hurt. And while he did well offensively, he was still getting used to hitting against LHP. In 2019, he was playing with a bum knee while also rehabbing his elbow and wearing a giant flexible cast to hit with. He's better than that. And 2020, was just a lost year for many players.

We still might see the ace and we still might see the monster at the plate. And it's still a possibility, we see them simultaneously in 2021.

[Pancake Bear]

2 hours ago, Second Base said:

Watching some late night baseball pron, and came across Shohei Ohtani highlights. And it genuinely in reminded me this:

Shohei Ohtani is probably the most important acquisition heading into 2021. He's the difference between the Angels bring a playoff team and the Angels being an overpaid 80-85 win team. 

We still haven't seen the unicorn fully healthy yet. We may never. I don't know. But if he is healthy, then the amazing happens.

1. We've got our staff ace that we've all been pining for. 

2. We've got an elite left handed bat to plant firmly in the middle of the lineup. 

Optimistically, the best is still yet to come for Shohei. His rookie year, his pitching numbers were inflated by had outings where he tried pitching hurt. And while he did well offensively, he was still getting used to hitting against LHP. In 2019, he was playing with a bum knee while also rehabbing his elbow and wearing a giant flexible cast to hit with. He's better than that. And 2020, was just a lost year for many players.

We still might see the ace and we still might see the monster at the plate. And it's still a possibility, we see them simultaneously in 2021.

Ohtani is the Big If. If he's ever healthy, if he ever puts together a full season like he teased at times in 2018, watch out. Arguably the most talented guy on the roster, which is saying a lot. Thing of it is, for probably many of us, 2020 kind've made us say, we're not counting on anything with him until we actually see it. We've been buttercupped too much for that. I hope we see the real Shohei, but until we do, I'm not holding my breath. I know that guy we all want to see is in there, I just don't know if he'll ever show up again. 

[Warfarin]

8 hours ago, Second Base said:

Schebler simply isn't an option for the roster. Think about it gents, who plays CF if Trout needs a day off? Ward and Upton certainly can't. Ward has never played there before and Upton is a statue. 

The next outfielder the Angels acquire is going to have the ability to play CF, and will need to have a bat proven enough to man LF and RF because it's no guarantee that Upton or Ward actually hit. 

There really aren't many options that fit that criteria in free agency, outside of Brian Goodwin and Joc Pederson. Goodwin probably runs you 1/3, Joc maybe 1/7. Really it comes down to the Angels budget. They probably only have 8 million left to spend before reaching that magic 30 million number that was thrown about (by fans) early on. 

I still think the likeliest option is some kind of unexpected trade. Something like Thaiss or Rengifo and a lower level of like Aquino for Ender Inciarte +15 million. 

FWIW, Schebler did play CF for the Reds.  Likely not an ideal candidate to play CF, but he has done so before.

[totdprods]

10 hours ago, Second Base said:

It'll be interesting to see who among that group gets a major league deal and who settles for a minor league pact with a ST invite. 

Given the sky high prices for pitching, it wouldn't surprise me at all if one of them secured 1/5. 

Yeah, certainly not expecting all of those guys to settle for minor league deals, but even a 1/$5m is something I could still see the Angels doing even if they add a second SP, especially if it’s someone they either feel could start in the bullpen (like say, Shoemaker or Folty) or they want to start the season with guys like Sandoval or Canning even at AAA with Barria in the pen, and go for an approach that really stacks depth. 

[Erstad Grit]

10 hours ago, Second Base said:

Watching some late night baseball pron, and came across Shohei Ohtani highlights. And it genuinely in reminded me this:

Shohei Ohtani is probably the most important acquisition heading into 2021. He's the difference between the Angels bring a playoff team and the Angels being an overpaid 80-85 win team. 

We still haven't seen the unicorn fully healthy yet. We may never. I don't know. But if he is healthy, then the amazing happens.

1. We've got our staff ace that we've all been pining for. 

2. We've got an elite left handed bat to plant firmly in the middle of the lineup. 

Optimistically, the best is still yet to come for Shohei. His rookie year, his pitching numbers were inflated by had outings where he tried pitching hurt. And while he did well offensively, he was still getting used to hitting against LHP. In 2019, he was playing with a bum knee while also rehabbing his elbow and wearing a giant flexible cast to hit with. He's better than that. And 2020, was just a lost year for many players.

We still might see the ace and we still might see the monster at the plate. And it's still a possibility, we see them simultaneously in 2021.

You're a great poster so don't take offense,

I just knew 100% if we didn't acquire the ace we all know we need the "Ohtani is an ace when healthy" discussion would begin.

I freaking love Ohtani. Expecting him to be an ace is ill-placed optimism. 

[Angels in 2030]

It's the stages of grief for Angel fans annually on the starting pitching.  After failure to obtain the necessary SP, this is about step 8 -- irrational acceptance of current SP and thinking it's going to be different/better this year.  That one month Heaney was healthy and great -- extrapolate that out for 2021 and he's a #2.  Ohtani stays healthy and he's an Ace.  Canning becomes Bauer V2.0. Quintana suddenly thinks it's 2016

Fact is -- Angels SP sucks.  Bauer (or some other Ace trade acq) would greatly improve it immediately to an acceptable level to compete in the playoffs.  Otherwise, it's all hope & dreams.    

[Second Base]

18 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

You're a great poster so don't take offense,

I just knew 100% if we didn't acquire the ace we all know we need the "Ohtani is an ace when healthy" discussion would begin.

I freaking love Ohtani. Expecting him to be an ace is ill-placed optimism. 

None taken. He isn't the ace we need. But if we get lucky, he would be. 

[Angelsfan1984]

That’s a massive if at this point. 
 

if the queen had balls she’d be the king 

[Make Angels Great Again]

Cactus league officials asking MLB to delay start of spring training...

[angelsnationtalk]

8 minutes ago, Make Angels Great Again said:

Cactus league officials asking MLB to delay start of spring training...

[mmc]

Lol

 

[Angel Oracle]

Ok then, let’s do this.

Delay ST to mid-March and start the season around May 1.

Start minor league season the second week of May and play 110 games.   That should still be enough to gauge progress on the farms.

Keep the 7 inning DHs for only 2021, and schedule two per month for every team.

That makes it around a 140 game season with normal end of September  completion.

Pay the players based on 140 games.

Hey, I’m a great mediator.

Edited January 25, 2021 by Angel Oracle

[Angelsjunky]

Ohtani...

Expectation: He should rebound with the bat and settle in somewhere in the 2018-19 range, as a 120-140ish OPS+ hitter. Any pitching is extra.

Hope: He’s finally healthy and flashes ace stuff in 100 or so innings, and reaches the higher regions of the above hitting. Works up to 150 IP in 2022.

Reality: Who thafuk knows.

[Angelsjunky]

Does anyone actually think we’ll see 162 games? I don’t. Maybe 140.

[Junkballer]

16 minutes ago, Fourts said:

It's the stages of grief for Angel fans annually on the starting pitching.  After failure to obtain the necessary SP, this is about step 8 -- irrational acceptance of current SP and thinking it's going to be different/better this year.  That one month Heaney was healthy and great -- extrapolate that out for 2021 and he's a #2.  Ohtani stays healthy and he's an Ace.  Canning becomes Bauer V2.0. Quintana suddenly thinks it's 2016

Fact is -- Angels SP sucks.  Bauer (or some other Ace trade acq) would greatly improve it immediately to an acceptable level to compete in the playoffs.  Otherwise, it's all hope & dreams.    

While this is generally true it is also more of a fan perspective than a first-year GMs perspective.  With the addition of one decent SP and minor position acquisitions they are already a borderline wildcard team.  I would think that Minasian has a 3-year plan, with the first year a goal of playoffs without handcuffing his options in years 2-3.  The minor acquisitions hes made so far, coupled with a few pebble splash signings sets him up nicely to get more advantageous value from his prospects after theyve been able to play a half season of minor league ball.  I think we will see our TOR come through a trade deadline trade, not pre-season.  We may be getting our Gray/Castillo/? once those teams fall out of the playoff race and hopefully see our prospects in a better light.  You dont succeed long term without solid asset management and it all about where the Angels end up in season 1, not where they start.

[Stradling]

23 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

That’s a massive if at this point. 
 

if the queen had balls she’d be the king 

There is a better chance of Ohtani pitching like an Ace than the queen growing balls.  I hope.

[mmc]

 

[Angel Oracle]

7 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Ohtani...

Expectation: He should rebound with the bat and settle in somewhere in the 2018-19 range, as a 120-140ish OPS+ hitter. Any pitching is extra.

Hope: He’s finally healthy and flashes ace stuff in 100 or so innings, and reaches the higher regions of the above hitting. Works up to 150 IP in 2022.

Reality: Who thafuk knows.

This, except for one change 

For hope:

Change 100 innings in 2021 and 150 innings in 2022 to 80 and 110.   110 innings would still be double what he pitched in 2018, and 130 innings would likely be his max going forward after that, to maximize the pitching and hitting.

Edited January 25, 2021 by Angel Oracle

[Jay]

Andrelton Simmons is still a free agent...

[floplag]

13 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Alright so here's what's left for top pitching arms on the FA market (SP and RP). Also listed are top teams linked to these guys. 

Trevor Bauer (SP) Angels, Mets, Blue Jays, Dodgers
Masahiro Tanaka (SP) Blue Jays, Japan, Yankees
Jake Odorizzi (SP) Angels, Red Sox, Giants, Blue Jays, Twins
James Paxton (SP) Blue Jays, (+20 teams that showed up to him showcase)
Trevor Rosenthal (RP). Not much news. Maybe Padres? Mets/Angels could be in
Alex Colome (RP) White Sox, Red Sox, Phillies, Padres, Twins

Let's play worst case scenario here and assume these signings happen:
Tanaka goes to Japan
Odorizzi goes to either Twins or Red Sox
Paxton goes to Blue Jays
Rosenthal goes to Padres
Colome goes to White Sox

Let's assume our plan was to sign Odorizzi, Rosenthal and then RF depth guy.
Does Arte hit the "oh shit" button and push for Bauer the way he did last year with Rendon after missing out on Cole?
The Angels signed Quintana to be an innings-eating mid-back rotation arm. The second piece they want to get has to be a #2 guy at least.  
 

IF all that happens, does he hit a different oh shit button and maybe go back to to the bats and revisits Realmuto if still out there?  Or Osuna?  If you cant get top pitchers, get top bats.  It worked for us last year.
I highly doubt it but the precedent is there. 

[ukyah]

2 hours ago, Fourts said:

It's the stages of grief for Angel fans annually on the starting pitching.  After failure to obtain the necessary SP, this is about step 8 -- irrational acceptance of current SP and thinking it's going to be different/better this year.  That one month Heaney was healthy and great -- extrapolate that out for 2021 and he's a #2.  Ohtani stays healthy and he's an Ace.  Canning becomes Bauer V2.0. Quintana suddenly thinks it's 2016

Fact is -- Angels SP sucks.  Bauer (or some other Ace trade acq) would greatly improve it immediately to an acceptable level to compete in the playoffs.  Otherwise, it's all hope & dreams.    

it's not a fact that the angels SP sucks. it's an opinion. it's a fact that bauer would improve the rotation.

[Angels 1961]

2 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Ok then, let’s do this.

Delay ST to mid-March and start the season around May 1.

Start minor league season the second week of May and play 110 games.   That should still be enough to gauge progress on the farms.

Keep the 7 inning DHs for only 2021, and schedule two per month for every team.

That makes it around a 140 game season with normal end of September  completion.

Pay the players based on 140 games.

Hey, I’m a great mediator.

You can schedule DH every week, just allow to add a player for DH. With runner on second to start extra inn games. Get it to 152 games. 

[Angels 1961]

Just now, Angels 1961 said:

You can schedule DH every week, just allow to add a player for DH. With runner on second to start extra inn games. Get it to 152 games. 

Start season last week of April spring training only 5 weeks.

[angelsnationtalk]

16 minutes ago, floplag said:

IF all that happens, does he hit a different oh shit button and maybe go back to to the bats and revisits Realmuto if still out there?  Or Osuna?  If you cant get top pitchers, get top bats.  It worked for us last year.
I highly doubt it but the precedent is there. 

I wouldn't call last year a success. 2nd worst rotation in baseball and at one point we had a shot for the #1 overall pick. 

Maybe their absolute worst scenario is Realmuto if everyone including Bauer is gone. Then they'd flip a trade for a pitcher.

I do think they'll land one of Bauer/Odorizzi/Paxton (one in that order). Or at least.... hope