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The Official 2020-2021 Hot Stove Offseason Thread


rafibomb

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7 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

 

Could put the Angels in a strange spot if that happens. If it does, do they push for Bauer knowing he's all that's left? Or do they go for bats? hmmmm...

Thats a false dilemma, unless you mean any kind of bat.  First, I think they have a number in mind re: Bauer and figure he will unlikely fall to into their laps at that price/term and secondly, I doubt they will spend any of the money they would be willing to spend on Bauer for something like Realmuto.  If Bauer doesnt happen, best case scenario will be an Odorizzi/Paxson type, a <9m OF and a cheap relief arm.  They will not pivot to a high price bat.

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1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

I still don't understand the obsession with Odorizzi.  Quintana is a year older and has had a much better career.  

Odorizzi is a good pitcher but to think that he's really a significant upgrade like he'd slot in ahead of anyone we already have just doesn't make sense to me.  He was really good in 2019 and that's about it.  And even then he was babied and only pitched 159 innings.  

He's essentially Bundy, Heaney or Quintana at best. Even Canning has a really good shot of being better.   I don't see any reason to commit 3 years to this guy at 12-15 per.  He's just not that good.  

It's only telling part of the story. 

Quintana was a good pitcher when he was young, and as he's aged, he's become more average. And hopefully that's what the Angels will get from him, is an average performance. 

Odorizzi on the other hand, was also very good when he first came up, but he couldn't sustain it the way Quintana did. Fatigue set in, he lost a couple ticks on his fastball, his slider lacked the bite it used to have, which led to ineffectiveness, then injury. Then Odorizzi went back to the drawing board. He visited a pitching guru in Florida, made some mechanical and arm angle adjustments and boom, he revived his career, recovered all the missing velocity on his heater, even added more spin to it, and his breaking ball regained it's sharp bite. 

It's fair to throw out 2020 for Quintana, just add it's fair to throw out 2020 for many free agents, Odorizzi included. So let's look at their most recent body of work from 2019. 

Quintana delivered 170 innings at a 4.68 ERA. His FIP was 3.80 but his ERA+ was 93. Odorizzi pitched 10 less innings, 160, at a 3.51 ERA with a 3.36 FIP and an era+ of 129. 

To put it plainy, Odorizzi offers a degree of upside that Jose Quintana does not at this stage of his career. If things go right for Jose, you'll get 170 innings and an ERA around 4.00. if things go right for Odorizzi, you'll probably get the same amount of innings with an ERA a half run lower. 

Edited by Second Base
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1 minute ago, Junkballer said:

Thats a false dilemma, unless you mean any kind of bat.  First, I think they have a number in mind re: Bauer and figure he will unlikely fall to into their laps at that price/term and secondly, I doubt they will spend any of the money they would be willing to spend on Bauer for something like Realmuto.  If Bauer doesnt happen, best case scenario will be an Odorizzi/Paxson type, a <9m OF and a cheap relief arm.  They will not pivot to a high price bat.

They pivoted to Rendon last year

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42 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

If by suck you mean below league average then you're right they don't suck. They're just.... average

Yes, Angels have the 7th best WAR for pitching in the AL but this is a best case scenario. Quintana will eat up innings, but there still are injury Qs that loom over a few of our guys' heads. Heaney usually always suffers a setback around the beginning of the season, Ohtani is a big ? and Canning might be a ticking time-bomb with UCL damage. 

Obviously we want them all to be healthy but it's the "what-if" that has haunted the Angels for a number of years now. 
The good news is the Angels are deep in rotation depth when it comes to slots 3-6. The question is what's the quality of that and can it work when playoffs come around?

We don't have a top 3 of Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin so making a deep run in the playoffs (with the current rotation) would mean having a strong bullpen/offense. Kind of how the Angels did it in 2002. 

On the other hand, the Angels lack a shutout bullpen as well. We have a strong offense (4th best WAR projection in AL), but we've seen over the years that offense alone can't win games.

Angels are in a very very tough spot. Trading prospects, particularly pitching prospects, won't do the Angels any good right now. They need all the depth they can get. 

The projections for the rotation have merit. As it stands, our top 4 have all performed like a #3 or better from 2019-2020. They could continue their performance, or all completely fall off, but you have to give them credit for what they have done.

SP fWAR ranks 2019-2020

Bundy - 4.5, 29th

Heaney - 2.7, 67th

Quintana - 3.3, 51st

Canning - 2.3, 82nd

 

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Talked to another friend, well I shouldn't say friend. I reconnected with someone in the know that I haven't regularly talked to in basically 5 years. But he's a good source.

His guess is that Minasian has been more fixated on the trade market and less on the free agency market. He believes the groundwork has already been laid for trades that would fill multiple holes. The timing hasn't been right for a lot of teams. 

He said a new, hungry GM like Perry isn't sitting in his office waiting to hear back on a free agent. He's making calls daily, having conversations.

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1 hour ago, Pancake Bear said:

Comparing to the going rate for pitchers based on his level of ability, past accomplishments (as reflective of said ability), and projections of future value.

I don’t think any of us have a clue as to how much he will get and nothing would surprise me.

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2 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

They pivoted to Rendon last year

A different GM, a different payroll situation and a different needs.  Rendon filled a huge need at 3b, allowing Fletcher to play at 2b giving them excellent infield defense aside from 1B.   There are no FA big bats that will have a similar impact this year and leave the payroll flexibility they still had after Rendon.

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5 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Talked to another friend, well I shouldn't say friend. I reconnected with someone in the know that I haven't regularly talked to in basically 5 years. But he's a good source.

His guess is that Minasian has been more fixated on the trade market and less on the free agency market. He believes the groundwork has already been laid for trades that would fill multiple holes. The timing hasn't been right for a lot of teams. 

He said a new, hungry GM like Perry isn't sitting in his office waiting to hear back on a free agent. He's making calls daily, having conversations.

I like the idea. Would like to see some execution getting done now. 

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I really wonder what the Angels plan is with starting pitching. The free agent market is so dry after Bauer. Either Minasian has something up his sleeve or he's going to sign a typical Angels free agent SP signee.

I'd like to think he has something up his sleeve, but the history of this organization tells me it's just going to be the same old stuff. I'm mainly scared that they are just going to sign a Rick Porcello and think that he's enough, which- NEWS FLASH- he isn't.

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35 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Talked to another friend, well I shouldn't say friend. I reconnected with someone in the know that I haven't regularly talked to in basically 5 years. But he's a good source.

His guess is that Minasian has been more fixated on the trade market and less on the free agency market. He believes the groundwork has already been laid for trades that would fill multiple holes. The timing hasn't been right for a lot of teams. 

He said a new, hungry GM like Perry isn't sitting in his office waiting to hear back on a free agent. He's making calls daily, having conversations.

That's a good point. Based on everything I've seen/heard about Minasian, he seems like the type of GM who is exploring every option and always thinking through different scenarios.

The problem is that trades are very hard to execute, especially with a mediocre farm system.

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6 minutes ago, Trendon said:

I really wonder what the Angels plan is with starting pitching. The free agent market is so dry after Bauer. Either Minasian has something up his sleeve or he's going to sign a typical Angels free agent SP signee.

I'd like to think he has something up his sleeve, but the history of this organization tells me it's just going to be the same old stuff. I'm mainly scared that they are just going to sign a Rick Porcello and think that he's enough, which- NEWS FLASH- he isn't.

I wouldn't be surprised if he makes a trade for a good young starter who's names was not on the trade block

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16 minutes ago, Trendon said:

That's a good point. Based on everything I've seen/heard about Minasian, he seems like the type of GM who is exploring every option and always thinking through different scenarios.

The problem is that trades are very hard to execute, especially with a mediocre farm system.

Again, not a mediocre farm. A legitimate strong farm. Swanson hasn't been perfect, but he has created a significant depth surplus in terms of upside and athleticism in both the infield and outfield, as well significant depth in AAA and breakout potential from the international prospects. 

The only place he's fallen short in my opinion is pitching, but judging by Kochanowicz in 2019 and Detmers in 2020, he's recognized it and is attempting to address it.

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1 hour ago, Erstad Grit said:

For starters 2019 was Odirizzi's best year while Quintana's worst. I'd prefer a SP trending in the right direction. 

one year is a trend?  in the three years before that he put up an FIP of 4.60.

Quintana's FIP over the last three years is 3.96 and it was 3.80 in 2019.  

For awhile, the mid tier market for pitchers was an absolute shit show but it cooled off a bit where 4 year deals became 3 year deals at much more appropriate value.  Committing 40+ mil to a decent yet mostly mediocre pitcher is going backward to me.  

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2 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

If by suck you mean below league average then you're right they don't suck. They're just.... average

Yes, Angels have the 7th best WAR for pitching in the AL but this is a best case scenario. Quintana will eat up innings, but there still are injury Qs that loom over a few of our guys' heads. Heaney usually always suffers a setback around the beginning of the season, Ohtani is a big ? and Canning might be a ticking time-bomb with UCL damage. 

Obviously we want them all to be healthy but it's the "what-if" that has haunted the Angels for a number of years now. 
The good news is the Angels are deep in rotation depth when it comes to slots 3-6. The question is what's the quality of that and can it work when playoffs come around?

We don't have a top 3 of Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin so making a deep run in the playoffs (with the current rotation) would mean having a strong bullpen/offense. Kind of how the Angels did it in 2002. 

On the other hand, the Angels lack a shutout bullpen as well. We have a strong offense (4th best WAR projection in AL), but we've seen over the years that offense alone can't win games.

Angels are in a very very tough spot. Trading prospects, particularly pitching prospects, won't do the Angels any good right now. They need all the depth they can get. 

I'm pretty sure that the nature of a projection isn't best case scenario.  They handicap the propensity for injury etc.  

you are referencing a historically good pitching staff.  If that's your expectation, there's a really good chance it won't be realized any time soon.  

Frankly, no matter what we do, the Padres are going to likely have a way better staff.  

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8 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I'm pretty sure that the nature of a projection isn't best case scenario.  They handicap the propensity for injury etc.  

I genuinely appreciate/applaud how civil you are when responding to truly inane comments.  Projections systems have been in play online and commonplace since the birth of the internet and people still don't have a clue what they are, what they represent, or how to read/use them. 

Projections are an attempt to make a best guess what to expect based on a player's recent history, age, position, and career trajectory.  To get there, they take all that crap... compare it to every freaking player that ever played and was a closely similar player...  Then look at how they did moving forward.  Then.... just for shits and giggles, they make adjustments for league, parks, eras, and attempt to guage playing time based on who else is on his team.

But yeah... "Best case scenario"

"Hallelujah, where's the Tylenol!?" -- Clark W. Griswold.

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1 hour ago, Trendon said:

I really wonder what the Angels plan is with starting pitching. The free agent market is so dry after Bauer. Either Minasian has something up his sleeve or he's going to sign a typical Angels free agent SP signee.

I'd like to think he has something up his sleeve, but the history of this organization tells me it's just going to be the same old stuff. I'm mainly scared that they are just going to sign a Rick Porcello and think that he's enough, which- NEWS FLASH- he isn't.

Minasian is living in the same world Eppler did.... Arte's.   

I don't think Eppler ever thought it was enough.  He consistently tried to find lightning in a bottle while dredging the bottom.  Lets hope Minasian gets luckier/does a better job.

That or Arte gets the hankering for a YouTube personality and decides Bauer will grow the Angels brand.

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1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

Projections are an attempt to make a best guess what to expect based on a player's recent history, age, career trajectory.  To get there, they take all that crap... compare it to every freaking player that ever played and was a closely similar player...  Then look at how they did moving forward.  Then.... just for shits and giggles, they make adjustments for league, parks, eras, and attempt to guage playing time based on who else is on his team.

But yeah... "Best case scenario"

Seems like they've basically always been conservative with Trout. Is that typical, or does it just assume historically great players will inevitably regress because there aren't many great comps? Dunno how anyone figures projections are the best case scenario. 

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3 hours ago, Trendon said:

I really wonder what the Angels plan is with starting pitching. The free agent market is so dry after Bauer. Either Minasian has something up his sleeve or he's going to sign a typical Angels free agent SP signee.

I'd like to think he has something up his sleeve, but the history of this organization tells me it's just going to be the same old stuff. I'm mainly scared that they are just going to sign a Rick Porcello and think that he's enough, which- NEWS FLASH- he isn't.

The history of this organization means nothing really.  It’s a different GM so what Eppler did or Dipoto or Reagins or Tavares or Bavasi or Port did means nothing. The only relevant history is what has happened since October. 

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