The Official 2020-2021 Hot Stove Offseason Thread

[Lou]

4 minutes ago, Stradling said:

The history of this organization men’s nothing really

Their what?

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Pancake Bear said:

Seems like they've basically always been conservative with Trout. Is that typical, or does it just assume historically great players will inevitably regress because there aren't many great comps? Dunno how anyone figures projections are the best case scenario. 

Bingo.  Trout is an aberration.  Since they aim to be as accurate as possible they try to use as big a sample as possible when comping guys and that's where it gets dicey with inner circle type HOFers.

Projection systems aren't perfect and shouldn't be viewed as gospel, they are simply educated guesses.  There are certain inherent issues such as greater volatility at the two ends of the age spectrum and struggles with guys dependent on speed... but the longer the established track record and between ages 24-34 they are typically pretty solid.

What they aren't is a best case example of what to expect.

[Warfarin]

6 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Minasian is living in the same world Eppler did.... Arte's.   

I don't think Eppler ever thought it was enough.  He consistently tried to find lightning in a bottle while dredging the bottom.  Lets hope Minasian gets luckier/does a better job.

That or Arte gets the hankering for a YouTube personality and decides Bauer will grow the Angels brand.

Right.  I think Minasian is constrained by budget and likely utilizing the same one-year approach to SPs as Eppler did.  That's where the comparison ends, though.  Different GMs can be vastly different talent evaluators, and we can only hope Minasian is a better judge of FA talent / bounce-back potential than Eppler was.  

It seems incredibly likely we will acquire one more SP, whether via trade or signing.  If it's a signing, considering who is left on the market, my preferred non-Bauer choice is still Paxton, but perhaps Minasian has a lead on a trade that he is pursuing instead.

I expect things to heat up in the next week or so, because well, it sorta has to, right?  With free agency coming to an end soon.

[Angels 1961]

9 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I still don't understand the obsession with Odorizzi.  Quintana is a year older and has had a much better career.  

Odorizzi is a good pitcher but to think that he's really a significant upgrade like he'd slot in ahead of anyone we already have just doesn't make sense to me.  He was really good in 2019 and that's about it.  And even then he was babied and only pitched 159 innings.  

He's essentially Bundy, Heaney or Quintana at best. Even Canning has a really good shot of being better.   I don't see any reason to commit 3 years to this guy at 12-15 per.  He's just not that good.  

Besides Bauer not much left on free agent market.

[Angels 1961]

44 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Right.  I think Minasian is constrained by budget and likely utilizing the same one-year approach to SPs as Eppler did.  That's where the comparison ends, though.  Different GMs can be vastly different talent evaluators, and we can only hope Minasian is a better judge of FA talent / bounce-back potential than Eppler was.  

It seems incredibly likely we will acquire one more SP, whether via trade or signing.  If it's a signing, considering who is left on the market, my preferred non-Bauer choice is still Paxton, but perhaps Minasian has a lead on a trade that he is pursuing instead.

I expect things to heat up in the next week or so, because well, it sorta has to, right?  With free agency coming to an end soon.

It's come to the point of just get somebody, Bauer still best choice but if he signs with another team not much left. Paxton if he can stay healthy big upside.

[T.G.]

5 hours ago, Stradling said:

The history of this organization means nothing really.  It’s a different GM so what Eppler did or Dipoto or Reagins or Tavares or Bavasi or Port did means nothing. The only relevant history is what has happened since October. 

It’s not about any individual GM. It’s about Arte’s history for better or worse.

[CanadianHalo]

 

[EdmontonAngelsFan]

 

[Stradling]

35 minutes ago, T.G. said:

It’s not about any individual GM. It’s about Arte’s history for better or worse.

Not really. I liked Eppler a lot but he chose wrong a lot on free agent pitchers. Arte wouldn’t have told him no to a deal for Lance Lynn or a trade for Gray when the Yankees made him available.  

[T.G.]

14 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Not really. I liked Eppler a lot but he chose wrong a lot on free agent pitchers. Arte wouldn’t have told him no to a deal for Lance Lynn or a trade for Gray when the Yankees made him available.  

We don't know that for sure regarding Arte; after all, he nixed the deal with the Dodgers.

[34red4]

9 hours ago, Trendon said:

I'm mainly scared that they are just going to sign a Rick Porcello and think that he's enough, which- NEWS FLASH- he isn't.

Based on the numbers, Porcello would be a great acquisition. Especially if he comes at less than 1/2 of what Odorizzi would cost.

SP fWAR projections 2021:

• Bauer - 4.2
• Paxton - 2.7
• Tanaka - 2.7
• Richards - 2.1
• Porcello - 2.1
• Archer - 2.1
• Odorizzi - 2.0

SP fWAR rank 2018-2020

• Bauer - 11.5, 7th
• Paxton - 7.5, 29th
• Tanaka - 6.5, 36th
• Richards - 1.7, 141st
• Porcello - 5.9, 40th
• Archer - 3.2, 91st
• Odorizzi - 6.8, 32nd

SP fWAR rank 2019-2020

• Bauer - 5.8, 16th
• Paxton - 3.8, 39th
• Tanaka - 4.0, 37th
• Richards - 0.7, 161st
• Porcello - 3.5, 46th
• Archer - 0.7, 162nd
• Odorizzi - 4.2, 36th

[Inside Pitch]

21 minutes ago, EdmontonAngelsFan said:

 

Boob Nightingale batting 1.000 as per usual.  That was the most click bait headline in a long time.  

[34red4]

41 minutes ago, CanadianHalo said:

 

“The New York Mets have formally offered free-agent starter Trevor Bauer a contract that would make him one of baseball’s highest-paid players on an annual average salary, a person with direct knowledge of the negotiations told USA TODAY Sports.”

I guess in today’s world, someone with “direct knowledge” is the same as “The Mets confirm”.

Sideshow Bob

[ukyah]

1 hour ago, Angels 1961 said:

Besides Bauer not much left on free agent market.

that's certainly not true.

[Inside Pitch]

5 minutes ago, Jinzu said:

“The New York Mets have formally offered free-agent starter Trevor Bauer a contract that would make him one of baseball’s highest-paid players on an annual average salary, a person with direct knowledge of the negotiations told USA TODAY Sports.”

I guess in today’s world, someone with “direct knowledge” is the same as “The Mets confirm”.

Sideshow Bob

The guy is priceless.

[Angels 1961]

1 minute ago, ukyah said:

that's certainly not true.

Odorizzi, Paxton and Walker market getting thin.

[mmc]

 

[floplag]

24 minutes ago, Jinzu said:

“The New York Mets have formally offered free-agent starter Trevor Bauer a contract that would make him one of baseball’s highest-paid players on an annual average salary, a person with direct knowledge of the negotiations told USA TODAY Sports.”

I guess in today’s world, someone with “direct knowledge” is the same as “The Mets confirm”.

Sideshow Bob

So were talking north of 30 just not 36, lol 

[mmc]

 

[Docwaukee]

It really wouldn't surprise me if we ultimately learn that the Angels never made a formal offer to Bauer.  

[floplag]

RE Bauer comments are saying its more like 27 AAV... now that, if true and we dont match or beat slightly, will anger me.
Sub 30, all over it, above not so much. 

[floplag]

4 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

It really wouldn't surprise me if we ultimately learn that the Angels never made a formal offer to Bauer.  

but Doc, they "had talks" so... isn that enough? 

[Chuck]

1 minute ago, floplag said:

RE Bauer comments are saying its more like 27 AAV... now that, if true and we dont match or beat slightly, will anger me.
Sub 30, all over it, above not so much. 

Link?

[Angels 1961]

2 minutes ago, floplag said:

RE Bauer comments are saying its more like 27 AAV... now that, if true and we dont match or beat slightly, will anger me.
Sub 30, all over it, above not so much. 

It's not just about money for Bauer, he wants to be on a contender.

[Erstad Grit]

3 minutes ago, floplag said:

RE Bauer comments are saying its more like 27 AAV... now that, if true and we dont match or beat slightly, will anger me.
Sub 30, all over it, above not so much. 

if that's accurate we should offer 4/120 and get it done