Bumgarner, Ryu & Bundy or Cole/Strasburg & Bundy?

[ten ocho recon scout]

Glad that Im not the only one whos leary of strass and ryu. Both would be cool adds. But both worry me. Both seen like huge gambles injury wise.

Beggers cant be choosers. But both to me seem like bad contracts in the waiting.

Cole is the must. After that, hope for a smart trade.

Im more of the idea that somebody like donaldson would make more sense than a ryu, even needing pitching as badly as we do.

[UndertheHalo]

Arte must overwhelm Cole and get the deal done.  The best player is always the best move.  Always. 

[Pancake Bear]

1 hour ago, ukyah said:

it ages better than strikeout pitchers.

How so? Contact: Weaver. K: Scherzer, Verlander. 

Counter examples?

1 hour ago, ukyah said:

i get it. he's got the stuff and the makeup, as he showed in his rookie year, but he certainly doesn't have the track record to be fairly called a #1. i think the hang up for most is that they feel he hasn't earned it yet.

Pretty much this. Ohtani could be an ace, but it’s asking too much for that this season. He’s coming off of TJ surgery and at the very least will be on an innings leash. 

If we grab some mid rotation dude as our second pitcher and Eppler gives us a song and dance about Ohtani being our ace, I’m done. 

[Splinter_9]

2 hours ago, ukyah said:

it ages better than strikeout pitchers.

Absolutely false.  There's a baseline of K/IP that you need to have to be a major league pitcher.  Pitchers lose strikeouts incrementally as they age.  The higher K/IP a pitcher starts at, the longer it is before he falls below the threshold. 

[Second Base]

3 hours ago, ukyah said:

 

what a load of horseshit.

 

and then to follow that up with keuchel praise?

Tell me what you really think.

I never said Keuchel was better than Bumgarner, I said he fits better because of his ground ball tendencies. He'd cost less and won't cost a draft pick too.

[ukyah]

36 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Tell me what you really think.

I never said Keuchel was better than Bumgarner, I said he fits better because of his ground ball tendencies. He'd cost less and won't cost a draft pick too.

you said bumgarner is not even a middle of the rotation starter, that's patently ridiculous.

you're backtracking on your statement, which is fine, if you were overzealous in your wording, but directly implying bumgarner is a 4 or 5 is bull hockey.

[Pancake Bear]

21 minutes ago, ukyah said:

you said bumgarner is not even a middle of the rotation starter, that's patently ridiculous.

you're backtracking on your statement, which is fine, if you were overzealous in your wording, but directly implying bumgarner is a 4 or 5 is bull hockey.

There’s a genuine question how good Bum will be. His road splits last year were awful. Giants park is the most pitcher friendly in baseball. 

[Second Base]

30 minutes ago, ukyah said:

you said bumgarner is not even a middle of the rotation starter, that's patently ridiculous.

you're backtracking on your statement, which is fine, if you were overzealous in your wording, but directly implying bumgarner is a 4 or 5 is bull hockey.

There is no backtracking here @ukyah .

Mad Bum is longer a mid rotation starter and that's a fact. Facts don't care about your feelings dude. His ERA has been trending in the wrong direction for four consecutive years now, and it now at 3.90, while pitching in the most notorious pitcher parks in all of baseball. Move him out of SF, and SD, and LA for the majority of his starts, and that ERA is going to climb. His velocity has plummeted at the same place that his ERA had inflated. That's not coincidence. Thankfully he hits hislocation well, which had prevented this from being a cliff for him. And he's now in the other side of 30. He's not going to improve. These are all the same arguments we had heard about Weav and as Angels fans we had hoped they weren't true but unfortunately, facts, didn't care about our feelings. That's just not the way it works. Weaver hit that proverbial cliff because that's simply the natural progression of things. It's newsworthy whenever a pitcher is able defy the natural aging process. Pretty much every time, it either means they're a very special case, or they are cheating. 

Madison Bumgarner is not going to be a mid rotation starter. I know I'm probably not going to change your mind on this, and that's ok. He may get paid like one, who knows? I mean pitching is expensive these days.

Is he better than Dallas Keuchel right now? I think so. It's close. Dallas Keuchel is a better fit for the Angels because he won't cost as much, doesn't have draft pick compensation and his ground ball ability plays well liked most parks, particularly with our park and or defense.

But all signs point toward Bumgarner's ERA climbing over 4 next year, and it's only going to continue to climb as his velocity wanes. 

 

Edited December 7, 2019 by Second Base

[Pancake Bear]

3 minutes ago, Second Base said:

There is no backtracking here @ukyah .

Mad Bum is longer a mid rotation starter and that's a fact. Facts don't care about your feelings dude. His ERA has been trending in the wrong direction for four consecutive years now, and it now at 3.90, while pitching in the most notorious pitcher parks in all of baseball. Move him out of SF, and SD, and LA for the majority of his starts, and that ERA is going to climb. His velocity has plummeted for several consecutive years now. Thankfully he hits hislocation well, which had prevented this from being a cliff for him. And he's now in the other side of 30. He's not going to improve. These are all the same arguments we had heard about Weav and as Angels fans we had hoped they weren't true but unfortunately, facts, didn't care about our feelings. That's just not the way it works. Weaver hit that proverbial cliff because that's simply the natural progression of things. It's newsworthy whenever a pitcher is able defy the natural aging process. Pretty much every time, it either means they're a very special case, or they are cheating. 

Madison Bumgarner is not going to be a mid rotation starter. I know I'm probably not going to change your mind on this, and that's ok. He may get paid like one, who knows? I mean pitching is expensive these days.

Is he better than Dallas Keuchel right now? I think so. It's close. Dallas Keuchel is a better fit for the Angels because he won't cost as much, doesn't have draft pick compensation and his ground ball ability plays well liked most parks, particularly with our park and or defense.

But all signs point toward Bumgarner's ERA climbing over 4 next year, and it's only going to continue to climb as his velocity wanes. 

 

I wouldn’t give either of them more than 3 years, I wouldn’t be excited for more than 2.

Ryu I’d be cautiously optimistic that he’d be healthy, but he’ll get paid for 2019. His health still seems a risk to me. Still, I’d much rather bet on Ryu (no QO, too) over either of those two, especially if you can get him at a decent deal. I wouldn’t go over 3 years for him, though. 

[Second Base]

1 minute ago, Sean-Regan said:

I wouldn’t give either of them more than 3 years, I wouldn’t be excited for more than 2.

Ryu I’d be cautiously optimistic that he’d be healthy, but he’ll get paid for 2019. His health still seems a risk to me. Still, I’d much rather bet on Ryu (no QO, too) over either of those two, especially if you can get him at a decent deal. I wouldn’t go over 3 years for him, though. 

Ryu I'd be willing to go to four years in, just because of the quality of the performance. If he's healthy, he's one of the best in baseball. I wouldn't feel great about the four years, but I would be willing to do it. But Bumgarner and Keuchel, I'd feel comfortable with two years, that's about it. They'll likely get three years or more, because that's how much pitching costs these days, but I feel comfortable with two.

[Pancake Bear]

1 minute ago, Second Base said:

Ryu I'd be willing to go to four years in, just because of the quality of the performance. If he's healthy, he's one of the best in baseball. I wouldn't feel great about the four years, but I would be willing to do it. But Bumgarner and Keuchel, I'd feel comfortable with two years, that's about it. They'll likely get three years or more, because that's how much pitching costs these days, but I feel comfortable with two.

Supposedly Bumgarner is going for equal money to Wheeler. That’s insane. If he gets 100m or more, gonna be some serious buyer’s remorse. 

[eligrba]

10 hours ago, Sean-Regan said:

Supposedly Bumgarner is going for equal money to Wheeler. That’s insane. If he gets 100m or more, gonna be some serious buyer’s remorse. 

There is something about having decent left handed pitchers in your starting rotation that makes a difference.....I will not be shocked

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

On 12/6/2019 at 11:46 AM, Stradling said:

Do you think Arte is ready to add $45 million a year to the payroll?  

yes and possibly more, Cozart comes off next year, Pujols the following year, and Upton after that. There won't be a group of FAs like this anytime soon...

[jchalos89]

Ryu spent 3.5 years in DL in his 7 seasons in LAD. He's a great starter when healthy but he is almost never healthy. If Angels sign him, I want it to be 1-2 year deal. Not over 3 years. Just too much injury risk

[Jason]

On 12/7/2019 at 2:24 PM, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

yes and possibly more, Cozart comes off next year, Pujols the following year, and Upton after that. There won't be a group of FAs like this anytime soon...

OMG! I forgot the Angels still even had Upton. 

[ukyah]

On 12/6/2019 at 10:37 PM, Second Base said:

There is no backtracking here @ukyah .

Mad Bum is longer a mid rotation starter and that's a fact. Facts don't care about your feelings dude. His ERA has been trending in the wrong direction for four consecutive years now, and it now at 3.90, while pitching in the most notorious pitcher parks in all of baseball. Move him out of SF, and SD, and LA for the majority of his starts, and that ERA is going to climb. His velocity has plummeted at the same place that his ERA had inflated. That's not coincidence. Thankfully he hits hislocation well, which had prevented this from being a cliff for him. And he's now in the other side of 30. He's not going to improve. These are all the same arguments we had heard about Weav and as Angels fans we had hoped they weren't true but unfortunately, facts, didn't care about our feelings. That's just not the way it works. Weaver hit that proverbial cliff because that's simply the natural progression of things. It's newsworthy whenever a pitcher is able defy the natural aging process. Pretty much every time, it either means they're a very special case, or they are cheating. 

Madison Bumgarner is not going to be a mid rotation starter. I know I'm probably not going to change your mind on this, and that's ok. He may get paid like one, who knows? I mean pitching is expensive these days.

Is he better than Dallas Keuchel right now? I think so. It's close. Dallas Keuchel is a better fit for the Angels because he won't cost as much, doesn't have draft pick compensation and his ground ball ability plays well liked most parks, particularly with our park and or defense.

But all signs point toward Bumgarner's ERA climbing over 4 next year, and it's only going to continue to climb as his velocity wanes. 

 

 

hey man, don't characterize this as a discussion between your thoughts and my feelings. i can point to his career stats either traditional or advanced and show that his current rates are all exceedingly similar to his career rates. bumgarner's career has always been a tale of two seasons, the regular season where he is a nice above average pitcher who gives you a ton of quality innings and a post season pitcher who virtually dominates. look at any of the years in these links and tell me if you see a discrepency between now and any year. nearly any stat, gb%, fip, xfip, hr/fb. pick any of them. i don't see the drop off anywhere. he's 29 years old, going into his age 30 season. if we have him for 30-35 at 18 million per, sign him up. we need good quality innings and durability.

your point about his fastball velocity is unfair. bumgarner has never been a high velocity pitcher. in fact, he's never averaged a league average fastball velocity. his career high fastball velocity in a season was 2016 at 93mph. the average fastball velocity in 2019 was 93.4.

his career avg. velocity is 92.2mph and his average last year was 91.7mph. his average fastball velocity over his career has been 1.2mph slower than league average and he's "lost" a total of .5mph off his average fastball in 2019. he's not a power pitcher and he's not jered weaver throwing 82mph fastballs.

edit: forgot to post the links:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/madison-bumgarner/5524/stats?position=P&data=pi

https://www.mlb.com/player/madison-bumgarner-518516

[Stradling]

Really good stuff @ukyah

[tdawg87]

6 minutes ago, ukyah said:

 

hey man, don't characterize this as a discussion between your thoughts and my feelings. i can point to his career stats either traditional or advanced and show that his current rates are all exceedingly similar to his career rates. bumgarner's career has always been a tale of two seasons, the regular season where he is a nice above average pitcher who gives you a ton of quality innings and a post season pitcher who virtually dominates. look at any of the years in these links and tell me if you see a discrepency between now and any year. nearly any stat, gb%, fip, xfip, hr/fb. pick any of them. i don't see the drop off anywhere. he's 29 years old, going into his age 30 season. if we have him for 30-35 at 18 million per, sign him up. we need good quality innings and durability.

your point about his fastball velocity is unfair. bumgarner has never been a high velocity pitcher. in fact, he's never averaged a league average fastball velocity. his career high fastball velocity in a season was 2016 at 93mph. the average fastball velocity in 2019 was 93.4.

his career avg. velocity is 92.2mph and his average last year was 91.7mph. his average fastball velocity over his career has been 1.2mph slower than league average and he's "lost" a total of .5mph off his average fastball in 2019. he's not a power pitcher and he's not jered weaver throwing 82mph fastballs.

edit: forgot to post the links:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/madison-bumgarner/5524/stats?position=P&data=pi

https://www.mlb.com/player/madison-bumgarner-518516

I think your paragraph about his velocity kind of proves his point. His career average fastball velocity is already below average yet it took a pretty significant drop in 2019? That's concerning.

[rafibomb]

This whole Bumgarner discussion reminds of (to a smaller scale) when people were writing off Verlander his last years at Detroit.

[Chuck]

8 minutes ago, ukyah said:

 

hey man, don't characterize this as a discussion between your thoughts and my feelings. i can point to his career stats either traditional or advanced and show that his current rates are all exceedingly similar to his career rates. bumgarner's career has always been a tale of two seasons, the regular season where he is a nice above average pitcher who gives you a ton of quality innings and a post season pitcher who virtually dominates. look at any of the years in these links and tell me if you see a discrepency between now and any year. nearly any stat, gb%, fip, xfip, hr/fb. pick any of them. i don't see the drop off anywhere. he's 29 years old, going into his age 30 season. if we have him for 30-35 at 18 million per, sign him up. we need good quality innings and durability.

your point about his fastball velocity is unfair. bumgarner has never been a high velocity pitcher. in fact, he's never averaged a league average fastball velocity. his career high fastball velocity in a season was 2016 at 93mph. the average fastball velocity in 2019 was 93.4.

his career avg. velocity is 92.2mph and his average last year was 91.7mph. his average fastball velocity over his career has been 1.2mph slower than league average and he's "lost" a total of .5mph off his average fastball in 2019. he's not a power pitcher and he's not jered weaver throwing 82mph fastballs.

edit: forgot to post the links:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/madison-bumgarner/5524/stats?position=P&data=pi

https://www.mlb.com/player/madison-bumgarner-518516

Good stuff @ukyah. 

I think if you get Bumgarner instead of Cole, you could actually go out and get a Teheran and say a Keuchel, or trade for Robbie Ray or for Wilson Contreras and Darvish. 

I've said it many times that I prefer Cole and a lesser third option as my priority, but if you could sign a Bumgarner and say Teheran AND trade for a Ray/Darvish and add Contreras for the same price as Gerrit Cole that's a real close second to Cole & a third option. 

[Chuck]

1 minute ago, rafibomb said:

This whole Bumgarner discussion reminds of (to a smaller scale) when people were writing off Verlander his last years at Detroit.

Yep and Greinke's loss of velo. 

[ukyah]

Just now, tdawg87 said:

I think your paragraph about his velocity kind of proves his point. His career average fastball velocity is already below average yet it took a pretty significant drop in 2019? That's concerning.

what would you guess is the year to year difference in fastball velocity from any pitcher at any age? you really have to just pick random pitchers and look for a variance. i disagree about your conclusion to my fastball information. this actually came up in a different thread, but there was no continued discussion.

the point is, he's not an above average power pitcher. he's never relied on overpowering stuff. think of matt harvey, he doesn't know how to pitch without his overpowering fastball. bumgarner has never had that, he's a near league average velocity pitcher who has "lost" .5mph off his fastball measured by one season. i'd argue he's equally as likely to regain a half mile on his fastball in 2020. i believe that falls in line with season by season variance. 

[ukyah]

just randomly decided that clayton kershaw would be a good example because people have the same thoughts about him as bumgarner.

clayton's career high average velocity is 94.4, which he averaged more than once.

his average last year was down to 90.5mph.

now that is a concerning drop and it's also 1.2mph slower than madbum in 2019. would anybody here have balked at paying kershaw 18 million over the next five years. probably some, but their feelings are mostly derived from his post season failures.

[tdawg87]

1 minute ago, ukyah said:

what would you guess is the year to year difference in fastball velocity from any pitcher at any age? you really have to just pick random pitchers and look for a variance. i disagree about your conclusion to my fastball information. this actually came up in a different thread, but there was no continued discussion.

the point is, he's not an above average power pitcher. he's never relied on overpowering stuff. think of matt harvey, he doesn't know how to pitch without his overpowering fastball. bumgarner has never had that, he's a near league average velocity pitcher who has "lost" .5mph off his fastball measured by one season. i'd argue he's equally as likely to regain a half mile on his fastball in 2020. i believe that falls in line with season by season variance. 

Thankfully there's a stat for this.

His fastball velocity was above 92 every year until 2016, where it dropped to 91.7. It hasn't gotten above 92 since. 

Oddly 2016 was the last time his ERA was below 3. It went up to 3.32 in 2017, which oddly was his lowest FB velocity. It went to 3.26 in 2018 before exploding to 3.90. Oddly.

It's almost like there is a correlation.

[ukyah]

11 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Good stuff @ukyah. 

I think if you get Bumgarner instead of Cole, you could actually go out and get a Teheran and say a Keuchel, or trade for Robbie Ray or for Wilson Contreras and Darvish. 

I've said it many times that I prefer Cole and a lesser third option as my priority, but if you could sign a Bumgarner and say Teheran AND trade for a Ray/Darvish and add Contreras for the same price as Gerrit Cole that's a real close second to Cole & a third option. 

i know you're not saying this, but i'm certainly not arguing that bumgarner is equal to cole. that would be ludicrous, but this board just throws around that bumgarner is a 4 or 5 starter, and i just think that's laughable.

i could make a very compelling argument that cole alone this offseason would be disastrous, where as a bumgarner, ryu, or whatever offseason would probably lead to more wins for the angels. obviously, i'd prefer to sign cole and bumgarner, but i really don't think the angels plan to spend as much as many here are expecting.