Bumgarner, Ryu & Bundy or Cole/Strasburg & Bundy?

[Duren, Duren]

This isn't basketball, where one superstar can instantly transform a team. And even you usually need a complimentary star to work in sync with the superstar to really become elite.

Nor is it football, where the starting qb plays every game and has the ball in his hands for every offensive play. 

A superstar starting pitcher can make a good team great if they have enough talent and depth, but on a weaker team he won't elevate them enough on his own. 

At the least you have to have decent quality elsewhere on the staff. The star pitcher (call him Cole) will only pitch every five games. What happens in the other four makes a team a serious contender or not.

Unless the Angels can find a really good second starter, Cole and the current staff won't be enough to keep their rotation rolling with longish winning streaks. Or consistently win 2 of 3 or 3 of 4. The kind of small series that make up the schedule. 

When you play the same teams 3 or 4 times in a row every day for six months you need to be able to have quality starting depth to insure the chance of winning those series. And resting the bullpen as much as possible.

At this stage in Angel team construction I still would be too intrigued with Cole to not make a serious offer. Can't at least try.

But I still would be ready to aggressively pursue a plan B of free agency and trades. One of Ryu, Baumgarner or maybe someone more under the radar. And also be active on the trade front. Once few agency sorts itself out Eppler should get creative. Bundy was a nice minor deal, serving a purpose. 

[ukyah]

5 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Thankfully there's a stat for this.

His fastball velocity was above 92 every year until 2016, where it dropped to 91.7. It hasn't gotten above 92 since. 

Oddly 2016 was the last time his ERA was below 3. It went up to 3.32 in 2017, which oddly was his lowest FB velocity. It went to 3.26 in 2018 before exploding to 3.90. Oddly.

It's almost like there is a correlation.

man, you guys and your tones. here, i'll speak in your tones.

i posted the link already to his velo's. you're right, as i already said, his average velocity over each season of his career is just over 92 and some change. it's almost as if a half mile per hour change from season to season is normal. oh wait, he was a half mile per hour down in 2019, he's falling off a cliff. it's almost as if there is no correlation within these parameters. 

prime of his career hard thrower zach wheeler: average season velocity is 96.3mph. his season high velocity is 97mph, which is .7 mph different from his career norm.  his career variance from season to season is +/- .8 mph

 

[Lou]

2 minutes ago, Duren, Duren said:

Unless the Angels can find a really good second starter,

[ukyah]

Just now, Lou said:

there's some argument to ohtani's value, but i'll say this much. if the angels get two starters better than ohtani, then their rotation is going to be top 10.

[tdawg87]

2 minutes ago, ukyah said:

man, you guys and your tones. here, i'll speak in your tones.

i posted the link already to his velo's. you're right, as i already said, his average velocity over each season of his career is just over 92 and some change. it's almost as if a half mile per hour change from season to season is normal. oh wait, he was a half mile per hour down in 2019, he's falling off a cliff. it's almost as if there is no correlation within these parameters. 

prime of his career hard thrower zach wheeler: average season velocity is 96.3mph. his season high velocity is 97mph, which is .7 mph different from his career norm.  his career variance from season to season is +/- .8 mph

 

No see, he wasn't above 92 in 2018. He's been below that EVERY year since 2016. That's 4 years. That means he's not touching 92 again. Because he was above 92 every year before that. 

There's year to year variations, sure, but he's well over 1 mph below his career best in 2015, and given his age, it isn't getting better. He might be a decent pitcher in 2020, and maybe even 2021. But beyond that? He's not headed in the right direction.

[Second Base]

52 minutes ago, ukyah said:

 

hey man, don't characterize this as a discussion between your thoughts and my feelings. i can point to his career stats either traditional or advanced and show that his current rates are all exceedingly similar to his career rates. bumgarner's career has always been a tale of two seasons, the regular season where he is a nice above average pitcher who gives you a ton of quality innings and a post season pitcher who virtually dominates. look at any of the years in these links and tell me if you see a discrepency between now and any year. nearly any stat, gb%, fip, xfip, hr/fb. pick any of them. i don't see the drop off anywhere. he's 29 years old, going into his age 30 season. if we have him for 30-35 at 18 million per, sign him up. we need good quality innings and durability.

your point about his fastball velocity is unfair. bumgarner has never been a high velocity pitcher. in fact, he's never averaged a league average fastball velocity. his career high fastball velocity in a season was 2016 at 93mph. the average fastball velocity in 2019 was 93.4.

his career avg. velocity is 92.2mph and his average last year was 91.7mph. his average fastball velocity over his career has been 1.2mph slower than league average and he's "lost" a total of .5mph off his average fastball in 2019. he's not a power pitcher and he's not jered weaver throwing 82mph fastballs.

edit: forgot to post the links:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/madison-bumgarner/5524/stats?position=P&data=pi

https://www.mlb.com/player/madison-bumgarner-518516

And yet everything I've said about him still runs true. ERA is aggressively trending in the wrong direction for four years in a row. Once decent velocity is no longer in that category. Much like Weaver, there's a strong chance that it continues to fall. If he loses one or two more ticks on it, forget about him even being a #4 starter. He pitches in the second most friendly pitching park in baseball and gets a handful of appearances in Petco and LA to boot, and his home and road splits illuminate a pitcher that's not too be targeted at 100 million. 3.90 ERA in the most favorable duration possible, and yet we are lobbying to bring him to the AL where he will be exposed to the AL East constantly? 

Bumgarner's ERA doesn't have a prayer at remaining below 4.00 outside of San Francisco, San Diego or the NL in general. 

I mean if this were a 3 year and 60 million dollar deal.... Maybe. At the most. Otherwise you've overpaid for a #4 starter.

[Erstad Grit]

6 minutes ago, Second Base said:

And yet everything I've said about him still runs true. ERA is aggressively trending in the wrong direction for four years in a row. Once decent velocity is no longer in that category. Much like Weaver, there's a strong chance that it continues to fall. If he loses one or two more ticks on it, forget about him even being a #4 starter. He pitches in the second most friendly pitching park in baseball and gets a handful of appearances in Petco and LA to boot, and his home and road splits illuminate a pitcher that's not too be targeted at 100 million. 3.90 ERA in the most favorable duration possible, and yet we are lobbying to bring him to the AL where he will be exposed to the AL East constantly? 

Bumgarner's ERA doesn't have a prayer at remaining below 4.00 outside of San Francisco, San Diego or the NL in general. 

I mean if this were a 3 year and 60 million dollar deal.... Maybe. At the most. Otherwise you've overpaid for a #4 starter.

Number 4 starter? Seriously?

You mentioned Padres but what about dodgers? What about playing at Colorado? Calling him a 4th is nuts.

[Hubs]

10 bucks says Bumgarner and his 3.13 career ERA ends up out performing Wheeler over the next 5 seasons.

[Second Base]

2 hours ago, Erstad Grit said:

Number 4 starter? Seriously?

You mentioned Padres but what about dodgers? What about playing at Colorado? Calling him a 4th is nuts.

@Hubs I think I'd wager 10 that his ERA in 2020 is over 4.00.

[Hubs]

Just now, Second Base said:

@Hubs I think I'd wager 10 that his ERA in 2020 is over 4.00.

If he signs with us, I’ll take that bet.

[Second Base]

Just now, Hubs said:

If he signs with us, I’ll take that bet.

That's a good point, defense certainly plays a factor and the Angels have a good defense. But yeah, I'd still take that bet.

[Erstad Grit]

52 minutes ago, Hubs said:

10 bucks says Bumgarner and his 3.13 career ERA ends up out performing Wheeler over the next 5 seasons.

I agree

[Hubs]

14 minutes ago, Second Base said:

That's a good point, defense certainly plays a factor and the Angels have a good defense. But yeah, I'd still take that bet.

Let’s see if he signs. And I think it’s possible they sign Cole and Bumgarner, FYI. Say Cole gets 35.5 and MadBum gets 22. That’s 57.5, so the rotation of Cole, Ohtani, MadBum, Heaney, Bundy, and Canning then is paid roughly 69. 
 

Add the OF at 36 for Trout, 21 for Upton, and 1 for Goodwin, plus 550k for Adell /Hermosillo who is your 4th guy until Adell comes up...And you’ve got 58 more. Add 1 for Calhoun’s buyout.

 

Add the infield at 15 for Simmons, 29 for Pujols, and 13 for Cozart, plus the small amount for 550 for Fletcher, 1.5 for LaStella, and 550 for Rengifo/ Thaiss.  60 more.

 

Add the Pen at maybe 8 M combined. 

 

Gotta do something at Catcher but that’s a real payroll of roughly 195. Luxury tax would be about the same. You may have trouble bringing back Simmons in 2021 without going over the tax, because Ohtani would have to be paid that year.

 

 

 

 

 

[Second Base]

1 minute ago, Hubs said:

Let’s see if he signs. And I think it’s possible they sign Cole and Bumgarner, FYI. Say Cole gets 35.5 and MadBum gets 22. That’s 57.5, so the rotation of Cole, Ohtani, MadBum, Heaney, Bundy, and Canning then is paid roughly 69. 
 

Add the OF at 36 for Trout, 21 for Upton, and 1 for Goodwin, plus 550k for Adell /Hermosillo who is your 4th guy until Adell comes up...And you’ve got 58 more. Add 1 for Calhoun’s buyout.

 

Add the infield at 15 for Simmons, 29 for Pujols, and 13 for Cozart, plus the small amount for 550 for Fletcher, 1.5 for LaStella, and 550 for Rengifo/ Thaiss.  60 more.

 

Add the Pen at maybe 8 M combined. 

 

Gotta do something at Catcher but that’s a real payroll of roughly 195. Luxury tax would be about the same. You may have trouble bringing back Simmons in 2021 without going over the tax, because Ohtani would have to be paid that year.

 

 

 

 

 

I'd personally take Keuchel. I don't believe he's as good as Bumgarner, but I believe he will be close, and would require less years, much less money and no draft pick or international bonus slot compensation. Angels showed interest before, and he's a ground ball machine. Put him in front of Simmons and Fletcher and magical things could happen.

[Hubs]

4 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I'd personally take Keuchel. I don't believe he's as good as Bumgarner, but I believe he will be close, and would require less years, much less money and no draft pick or international bonus slot compensation. Angels showed interest before, and he's a ground ball machine. Put him in front of Simmons and Fletcher and magical things could happen.

If Cole doesn’t come home to the Angels, I honestly wouldn’t be upset with Bumgarner and Keuchel.

[ukyah]

3 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

No see, he wasn't above 92 in 2018. He's been below that EVERY year since 2016. That's 4 years. That means he's not touching 92 again. Because he was above 92 every year before that. 

There's year to year variations, sure, but he's well over 1 mph below his career best in 2015, and given his age, it isn't getting better. He might be a decent pitcher in 2020, and maybe even 2021. But beyond that? He's not headed in the right direction.

you're exaggerating. he was injured in the 2016 offseason. he pitched limited innings over the next two seasons coming back from that injury.

firstly, i didn't say anything about itemizing 2018. i accurately pointed out where his fastball has been for the individual seasons over his career and the limited variance therein. i've also provided the link for anyone to look at it. it's right there for anyone and everyone. as i've said, in the posts above, his fastball has barely dipped from his career high and it dipped a limited amount last year, that could just as easily be a yearly variance. a half mph is not the sign of the end times for a pitcher. also, to your point, yes he doesn't reach his career high before his accident in the 2016 offseason.

i don't know how to be more clear with the facts, than i have been.

[angelsnationtalk]

3 hours ago, Second Base said:

And yet everything I've said about him still runs true. ERA is aggressively trending in the wrong direction for four years in a row. Once decent velocity is no longer in that category. Much like Weaver, there's a strong chance that it continues to fall. If he loses one or two more ticks on it, forget about him even being a #4 starter. He pitches in the second most friendly pitching park in baseball and gets a handful of appearances in Petco and LA to boot, and his home and road splits illuminate a pitcher that's not too be targeted at 100 million. 3.90 ERA in the most favorable duration possible, and yet we are lobbying to bring him to the AL where he will be exposed to the AL East constantly? 

Bumgarner's ERA doesn't have a prayer at remaining below 4.00 outside of San Francisco, San Diego or the NL in general. 

I mean if this were a 3 year and 60 million dollar deal.... Maybe. At the most. Otherwise you've overpaid for a #4 starter.

It's this reason alone that I believe the Angels will sign him if they whiff on Bumgarner and it terrifies me 

[Second Base]

11 minutes ago, Hubs said:

If Cole doesn’t come home to the Angels, I honestly wouldn’t be upset with Bumgarner and Keuchel.

I would be. I need more upside than that. Sub out Bumgarner with Ryu.

[Second Base]

1 minute ago, angelsnationtalk said:

It's this reason alone that I believe the Angels will sign him if they whiff on Bumgarner and it terrifies me 

Keuchel as the third starter is pretty meh. But again, big picture, if take him over Bumgarner for all the reasons I said.

[ukyah]

3 hours ago, Second Base said:

And yet everything I've said about him still runs true. ERA is aggressively trending in the wrong direction for four years in a row. Once decent velocity is no longer in that category. Much like Weaver, there's a strong chance that it continues to fall. If he loses one or two more ticks on it, forget about him even being a #4 starter. He pitches in the second most friendly pitching park in baseball and gets a handful of appearances in Petco and LA to boot, and his home and road splits illuminate a pitcher that's not too be targeted at 100 million. 3.90 ERA in the most favorable duration possible, and yet we are lobbying to bring him to the AL where he will be exposed to the AL East constantly? 

Bumgarner's ERA doesn't have a prayer at remaining below 4.00 outside of San Francisco, San Diego or the NL in general. 

I mean if this were a 3 year and 60 million dollar deal.... Maybe. At the most. Otherwise you've overpaid for a #4 starter.

i just don't see how a guy who never relied on power pitching and is currently throwing 91.7mph from a career high of 93 which is a 1.3 maximum dropoff so far, can be fairly compared to jered weaver who never had a season throwing over 91mph and ended up throwing 84.3 average fastball velocity, which is a 6.7mph dropoff.

i just don't see how that's even remotely the same pitcher. 

lastly, that's at least twice you've said that bumgarner isn't even a #4 starter and that's just insane to me.

i guess the conversation resolves this way with you, me, and tdawg doing this:

[Second Base]

Just now, ukyah said:

i just don't see how a guy who never relied on power pitching and is currently throwing 91.7mph from a career high of 93 which is a 1.3 maximum dropoff so far, can be fairly compared to jered weaver who never had a season throwing over 91mph and ended up throwing 84.3 average fastball velocity, which is a 6.7mph dropoff.

i just don't see how that's even remotely the same pitcher. 

lastly, that's at least twice you've said that bumgarner isn't even a #4 starter and that's just insane to me.

i guess the conversation resolves this way with you, me, and tdawg doing this:

I said Bumgarner is a #4 starter.

[UnrulyManBun27]

I still think we need to give Cole a blank check.

Sign Cole for whatever it takes and round out the rotation by signing Julio Teheran (durable, above average starter). A rotation of Cole, Ohtani, Heaney, Teheran, Canning, and Bundy could be serviceable, albeit nerve wracking with potential Ohtani/Heaney injuries.

Sign Maldonado to fill the catching void and make Cole/Ohtani happy.

Expensive offseason, but I think this gives us a chance to compete for a wild card spot.

 

[ukyah]

18 minutes ago, ukyah said:

If he loses one or two more ticks on it, forget about him even being a #4 starter.

there's the qualifier in the beginning, but it's tenuous at best.

if i were lou, i'd go back and post like ten quotes and throttle you. somewhere in the very beginning of this you said, "he's not even a middle of the rotation starter".

so, as you say, he's a #4 looking to fall off a cliff. i don't think i've unfairly misrepresented your opinion.