What's the Absolute Maximum you would spend on Gerrit Cole? (And others?)

[Angelsjunky]

Try to imagine it is your money, that you're some amalgam of Arte and Eppler (Arteppler?). You have $50-60M to spend this offseason, but also need to consider the long-term plan. Some considerations:

2020: $50-60M to spend (allegedly)

2021: Cozart ($12.67M) comes off the books, but Simmons is a free agent and needs extension (probably). Also, La Stella is a free agent and it's Shohei's first year of arbitration. 

2022: Pujols ($30M) comes off the books (finally), but Upton gets really expensive ($28M); Heaney, Bedrosian, and Robles hit free agency.

2023: Upton ($28M) comes off the books.

The point being, you've got more money to work with this offseason, but then have to spend a bit in 2021 if you want to keep Simmons and Stella; more money comes off in 2022-23.

So the question: What's your plan of action and how much are you willing to spend on free agents? I know we've already talked about this general topic ad nauseum (and will continue to do so), but in this thread the emphasis is on maximum salary (years and total) for targeted players. 

Now obviously you can't answer this question in a vacuum, so offer a plan of action. I'll offer mine shortly in a reply post.

 

[kevinb]

The max I’d be willing to spend is 35 mil a year avg salary for 7 years. If I get outbid so be it. You can’t win them all. There are other pitchers out there. I don’t want to pay him at 37. That’s a long time to pay a starter and 35 is the most ever for a pitcher. 245 mil is a lot of cash. If some other team beats me good for them and good luck to them. 

[Docwaukee]

Max:

Cole: 7/231. 
Grandal:  4/60
Wheeler:  5/90
Rendon 7/210
Donaldson 2/40
Moustakas 3/30
Strasburg 5/125
Ryu 3/60
Odorizzi 3/50
Bumgarner 4/75
Gibson 3/30
Hamels 2/24
Smith 2/20
d'Arnaud 2/16

we won't get all of the top 3 I listed at that price.  maybe not even two them.  
 

[Claude]

Cole 4/140

Grandal 2/28

Wheeler 3/54

Ryu 2/44

 

[Brandon]

55 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Max:

Cole: 7/231. 
Grandal:  4/60
Wheeler:  5/90
Rondon 7/210
Donaldson 2/40
Moustakas 3/30
Strasburg 5/125
Ryu 3/60
Odorizzi 3/50
Bumgarner 4/75
Gibson 3/30
Hamels 2/24
Smith 2/20
d'Arnaud 2/16

we won't get all of the top 3 I listed at that price.  maybe not even two them.  
 

This is a good baseline

[Brandon]

11 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

Cole 4/140

Grandal 2/28

Wheeler 3/54

Ryu 2/44

 

You are not remotely close

[Claude]

3 minutes ago, Brandon said:

You are not remotely close

I know but that’s all I would pay. I only like to pay for their good years. 

Edited October 29, 2019 by Calzone 2

[Brandon]

7 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

I know but that’s all I would pay. I only like to pay for their good years. 

I’m generally in the same camp, I don’t like to pay for down years or poor production. Your scenario is realistic to an extent, but in a capitalism market with multiple teams vying for these players someone is going to overpay or rather supply and demand dictates they are going to get more and your scenario indicates you get no one.

[ten ocho recon scout]

Something else that needs to be factored in is how much more money the team brings in when theyre winning and making the playoffs than losing.

YK jokes about attendance aside, yes we sell 3 million tickets. We make more money when people actually sit in those seats.

We also make more playing 163 games than 162. And so on and so forth as the playoffs go on. Plus the espn games, etc.

So if it were me, and i had the chance to make money off the money i spend, i would.

Ive defended the last few winters because of the shape we were in. But cole AND wheeler in their prime is a great compliment to trout and ohtani in theirs, with still some left of the simmons and upton years.

Then factor in adell...

If theres a time to spend its now, IMO

Edited October 29, 2019 by ten ocho recon scout

[Claude]

1 minute ago, Brandon said:

I’m generally in the same camp, I don’t like to pay for down years or poor production. Your scenario is realistic to an extent, but in a capitalism market with multiple teams vying for these players someone is going to overpay or rather supply and demand dictates they are going to get more and your scenario indicates you get no one.

No doubt. My offers are ridiculous and unattainable. The players want all they can get and I understand that but they should somehow allow the team an escape method. I’m all for paying a guy like Cole 7/250 if he earns it great, but if he gives us three solid seasons and then sucks badly for four seasons it gets frustrating for the team and the fans. It can be draining for everyone. Teams should be able to get insurance to buy out non performing players and get salary relief from the league to move forward. 

[Angelsjunky]

STAGE ONE: SIGN AN ACE

First Choice: Gerrit Cole 7/$245M

Go big. I know that's a lot, but I think it might cost that much. Obviously there is risk involved in such a contract, but given the state of the rotation and just how good Cole is, I think it is a risk you take.

Contingency: Stephen Strasburg  5/$135M

I'm more leery on Strasburg, who is both a second tier ace and also with a more questionable injury history; plus he's two years older. Strasburg is currently owed 4/$100M, including $45M deferred to 2023. My guess is he's hoping to get something like 5/$150M, so I'm probably not willing to go high enough -- but I'm capping out at $27M per year, and even that makes me rather squeamish. But if he's good for ~5 WAR for three of those five years, and is halfway decent the other two, if only part time, then he's a good pitcher to have.

 

STAGE TWO: SECOND STARTER

***From here on, every player has two contracts listed: the first higher one is if the Angels don't sign Cole or Strasburg; the second, lower one is if they sign one of them****

Zack Wheeler 5/$110M | 5/$95M 

Wheeler seems to fall into the over/under-rated category, depending upon who you ask. His last two years he's been a solid #2 starter (4.2 and 4.7 fWAR) and his peripherals and FIP are better than his ERA, so I think he can sustain similar level for at least the next two or three years.

Hyun-Jin Ryu 3/$60M | 3/$54M

Ryu was amazing for the first half, not so much the second. He's also 33 next year and 2019 was the first year since 2015 that he started more than 24 games (he started 0 in 2015, 1 in 2016, 24 in 2017, 15 in 2018) - so obviously there's injury concerns. I'm basing the above contracts on the likelihood that he pitches about two full years out of three, but they're 4 fWAR seasons. Still, he'll probably make more than that....I just don't want to pay him more.

Madison Bumgarner 4/$80M | 4/$72M

He's still a good pitcher, and even in his prime was probably a bit overrated due to his great postseason performances. But he seems healthy, was one of the few pitchers who pitched over 200 IP and should be good for 3-4 WAR. He's only a year older than Cole. Still, I'd rather have Wheeler for similar money, and my guess is that Bumgarner gets more - and probably a lot more than I'm willing to spend.

Jake Odorizzi 3/$48M

I wouldn't expect him to repeat 2019 as it was his first season over 3 fWAR (he was 4.3). On the other hand, his velocity did rise so maybe he's finally put it all together. So I'm thinking he's a more consistent, slightly better version of Andrew Heaney. Still, I don't think I'd go beyond 3 years, unless it is a lower AAV.

Cole Hamels 2/$26M 

Hard to justify spending more than ~$12M for a 36-37 year old, 2 WAR pitcher. Still, I'd add a bit for the "veteran presence" factor.

Kyle Gibson 2/$24M

Solid, unspectacular.

Dallas Keuchel 2/$22M

That FIP worries me, but he has been so solid for years now and would be a nice innings-eater.

Drew Pomeranz 2/$16M 

An intriguing buy-low candidate. He was really good in 2016-17, 3 WAR each season. Struggled in 2018, a bit better in 2019 but still not great.

Michael Pineda 1/$12M

I'd take a one year flyer on him, despite the ban. He certainly is worth more than Harvey was.

Wade Miley 1/$9M

Good year for the Astros, but higher FIP than ERA. Still, a solid pitcher.

Homer Bailey 1/$8M

Had a comeback year, but still. He's risky.

 

CATCHERS

Yasmani Grandal 4/$64M

Love me some Grandal. He's only available if the Angels spend <$45M AAV on pitching, but that's possible. He just makes too much sense for the Angels; he's a good enough hitter that he can platoon at DH/1B in the final year or two, if he needs to.

Travis d'Arnaud 2/$12M or 1/$9M

I wouldn't over-pay on d'Arnaud as their is a nice handful of serviceable platoon catchers available.

I'd pay Chirinos, Cervelli, Castro, Romine and Avila similar numbers, give or take.

 

 

Edited October 29, 2019 by Angelsjunky

[Brandon]

16 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

No doubt. My offers are ridiculous and unattainable. The players want all they can get and I understand that but they should somehow allow the team an escape method. I’m all for paying a guy like Cole 7/250 if he earns it great, but if he gives us three solid seasons and then sucks badly for four seasons it gets frustrating for the team and the fans. It can be draining for everyone. Teams should be able to get insurance to buy out non performing players and get salary relief from the league to move forward. 

Thank the unions.

I never liked the Pujols contract. I’m not an accountant in the front office, so I don’t know the business ROI in conjunction with letting years slip at the end. Definitely frustrating knowing you’re paying a guy to not produce for x amount of years.

[Docwaukee]

I personally think that the Angels have less to spend than people think even if Arte increases the budget.  If we sign Cole and pay him around 25m in the first year, we'll have another 15 and maybe 20 to spend on the rest.  

[Angelsjunky]

Just now, Dochalo said:

I personally think that the Angels have less to spend than people think even if Arte increases the budget.  If we sign Cole and pay him around 25m in the first year, we'll have another 15 and maybe 20 to spend on the rest.  

I dunno. I think Arte wants to return to winning ways and knows he needs to open the purse-strings to get it done. Plus, as many have said, the timing is right to invest.

I'm still hoping for Cole, Wheeler and Grandal for back-loaded contracts and first year salaries of 25 + 18 + 15, or $58M, but I also realize that is probably a pipe-dream. But that trio alone makes the Angels a 90+ win team, maybe better. More likely it is something like Cole, Odorizzi, and d'Arnaud.

[Docwaukee]

12 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I dunno. I think Arte wants to return to winning ways and knows he needs to open the purse-strings to get it done. Plus, as many have said, the timing is right to invest.

I'm still hoping for Cole, Wheeler and Grandal for back-loaded contracts and first year salaries of 25 + 18 + 15, or $58M, but I also realize that is probably a pipe-dream. But that trio alone makes the Angels a 90+ win team, maybe better. More likely it is something like Cole, Odorizzi, and d'Arnaud.

the former is my off season pipe dream. 

that second pitcher is gonna make or break the off season though.  They better not be wrong on that because with back loaded contracts in 2022, they'll have almost $120m committed to 4 guys - Trout (37), Cole (33), Upton (28), pitcher X (20).  And that hasn't even solved the C position yet.  

I'm starting to believe more and more than the 2nd pitcher we acquire this off season will be a 1 or 2yr deal and C will continue to be a revolving door.  

[tomsred]

Actually, if they get Cole, then you can try for (1) Wheeler or (2) Odorizzi or (3) Bumgarner, but especially if you get Cole and one more, then I think you have to settle for Maldonado.  Grandal would be out of range.  I also think we need to chase one additional veteran left handed reliever.

 

If they wiff on Cole, then we definitely need Wheeler + either Odorizzi or Bumgarner + Grandal + left handed reliever.

[ukyah]

1 hour ago, Calzone 2 said:

No doubt. My offers are ridiculous and unattainable. The players want all they can get and I understand that but they should somehow allow the team an escape method. I’m all for paying a guy like Cole 7/250 if he earns it great, but if he gives us three solid seasons and then sucks badly for four seasons it gets frustrating for the team and the fans. It can be draining for everyone. Teams should be able to get insurance to buy out non performing players and get salary relief from the league to move forward. 

i know what this is.

 

[beatlesrule]

bWar at time of signing their big contract: Price 30.9- 7/217 million, Sale 30.3- 5/145 million, Max Scherzer 30.8- 7/210 million, Greinke 31.5- 6/147 opted out after 3 years posting a 17.7 bwar during that time and then signed a 6/206.5 millon dollar deal. Verlander 36.4- 7/180. Kershaw has posted a 65.4 bwar and gotten like 300 million. I apologize if my math is off on some of them but you get the picture.

Cole is at 23.4 so going by that list, he should not command the largest contract ever for a pitcher. His numbers are just not good enough and all those guys were better pitchers going into FA or being extended.

I have been very vocal about Arte not going for it for all the years he has had Trout and so if this was my money, I would already have been surrounding Trout with the absolute best team I could buy every year since 2012 and this year would be no different. As I have shown pitching wise with bWar on Cole, he simply is not worth the big money all those BETTER pitchers got. I know this market is different and I like Cole but if all those previous pitchers were that much better, why offer him even more than what they got? Doesn't make much sense. Those of you offering him 7/245 are insane. I would max out at 6/180. If he really wants to play out west, he would be getting the same years Verlander did and more money and he is not the pitcher Verlander was with Detroit so there's that too.

I know a lot of you are absolutely obsessed with Cole but look at those contracts and compare the WAR. Cole is good but not as good as you are making him out to be.

[Pancake Bear]

2 hours ago, beatlesrule said:

bWar at time of signing their big contract: Price 30.9- 7/217 million, Sale 30.3- 5/145 million, Max Scherzer 30.8- 7/210 million, Greinke 31.5- 6/147 opted out after 3 years posting a 17.7 bwar during that time and then signed a 6/206.5 millon dollar deal. Verlander 36.4- 7/180. Kershaw has posted a 65.4 bwar and gotten like 300 million. I apologize if my math is off on some of them but you get the picture.

Cole is at 23.4 so going by that list, he should not command the largest contract ever for a pitcher. His numbers are just not good enough and all those guys were better pitchers going into FA or being extended.

I have been very vocal about Arte not going for it for all the years he has had Trout and so if this was my money, I would already have been surrounding Trout with the absolute best team I could buy every year since 2012 and this year would be no different. As I have shown pitching wise with bWar on Cole, he simply is not worth the big money all those BETTER pitchers got. I know this market is different and I like Cole but if all those previous pitchers were that much better, why offer him even more than what they got? Doesn't make much sense. Those of you offering him 7/245 are insane. I would max out at 6/180. If he really wants to play out west, he would be getting the same years Verlander did and more money and he is not the pitcher Verlander was with Detroit so there's that too.

I know a lot of you are absolutely obsessed with Cole but look at those contracts and compare the WAR. Cole is good but not as good as you are making him out to be.

What numbers are you using to make that determination, just out of curiosity? My method - which could easily be wrong - suggests the opposite. 

[nate]

8 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Max:

Cole: 7/231. 
Grandal:  4/60
Wheeler:  5/90
Rendon 7/210
Donaldson 2/40
Moustakas 3/30
Strasburg 5/125
Ryu 3/60
Odorizzi 3/50
Bumgarner 4/75
Gibson 3/30
Hamels 2/24
Smith 2/20
d'Arnaud 2/16

we won't get all of the top 3 I listed at that price.  maybe not even two them.  
 

This is good, I think I would probably go a little higher on Wheeler and Stras but only a couple million AAV, not more.

For me the max I would spend on Rendon is $1 because there is just no room for him, but your number is probably close to what he will get from someone.

[GA16]

3 hours ago, beatlesrule said:

bWar at time of signing their big contract: Price 30.9- 7/217 million, Sale 30.3- 5/145 million, Max Scherzer 30.8- 7/210 million, Greinke 31.5- 6/147 opted out after 3 years posting a 17.7 bwar during that time and then signed a 6/206.5 millon dollar deal. Verlander 36.4- 7/180. Kershaw has posted a 65.4 bwar and gotten like 300 million. I apologize if my math is off on some of them but you get the picture.

Cole is at 23.4 so going by that list, he should not command the largest contract ever for a pitcher. His numbers are just not good enough and all those guys were better pitchers going into FA or being extended.

I have been very vocal about Arte not going for it for all the years he has had Trout and so if this was my money, I would already have been surrounding Trout with the absolute best team I could buy every year since 2012 and this year would be no different. As I have shown pitching wise with bWar on Cole, he simply is not worth the big money all those BETTER pitchers got. I know this market is different and I like Cole but if all those previous pitchers were that much better, why offer him even more than what they got? Doesn't make much sense. Those of you offering him 7/245 are insane. I would max out at 6/180. If he really wants to play out west, he would be getting the same years Verlander did and more money and he is not the pitcher Verlander was with Detroit so there's that too.

I know a lot of you are absolutely obsessed with Cole but look at those contracts and compare the WAR. Cole is good but not as good as you are making him out to be.

I don't think WAR is generally regarded as a great measurement for pitcher value. 

Taking the average of the player's 3 seasons more traditional stats prior to FA says Cole is worth the money his peer's received. 

Cole has more then proven he belongs on that list, and his greatest advantage is he is entering the market a year younger than Max and David did. A 7 year deal is much more palatable for a 29 year old than a 30 year old.  

If it's my money, I am spending $1 million more than the next highest bidder to make Cole a Halo. 

 

[Second Base]

8 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Max:.       My Max.  (What I think he's worth)

Cole: 7/231.  --------7/245 (7/230)
Grandal:  4/60 --_---------4/60 (4/60)
Wheeler:  5/90_--_---_------5/100 (5/75)
Rendon 7/210-------------7/210 (7/175)
Donaldson 2/40----------2/30 (2/30)
Moustakas 3/30 ----------3/30 (3/30)
Strasburg 5/125 -----------5/140 (5/125)
Ryu 3/60 ---------------4/90 (4/100)
Odorizzi 3/50 --------------5/90 (3/45)
Bumgarner 4/75-----------i wouldn't.
Gibson 3/30 --------------2/16 (2/16)
Hamels 2/24 -------------2/24 (2/30)
Smith 2/20 -------------2/18
d'Arnaud 2/16 --------2/14

we won't get all of the top 3 I listed at that price.  maybe not even two them.  
 

As you can see, or valuations are pretty similar. I provided what I actually think they're worth to sort of illustrate that I'm willing to overpay for certain guys because I think they're that important and only willing to underpay on others because I don't feel the track record is where it needs to be.

[wopphil]

9 hours ago, Kevinb said:

The max I’d be willing to spend is 35 mil a year avg salary for 7 years. If I get outbid so be it. 

Exactly my opinion. 7/245 is my max.

[Inside Pitch]

Cole - 7/238
Wheeler - 5/90
Bumgarner - 4/70
Grandal - 3/51 or 4/60
Moustakas 3/27
Odorizzi - 3/48
Pineda - 3/30
Gibson - 3/27
Hamels 2/22
d'Arnaud 2/10

Edit... I'm getting closer to being ok with more years with Cole, in hopes of bringing AAV down

 

[Docwaukee]

6 hours ago, beatlesrule said:

bWar at time of signing their big contract: Price 30.9- 7/217 million, Sale 30.3- 5/145 million, Max Scherzer 30.8- 7/210 million, Greinke 31.5- 6/147 opted out after 3 years posting a 17.7 bwar during that time and then signed a 6/206.5 millon dollar deal. Verlander 36.4- 7/180. Kershaw has posted a 65.4 bwar and gotten like 300 million. I apologize if my math is off on some of them but you get the picture.

Cole is at 23.4 so going by that list, he should not command the largest contract ever for a pitcher. His numbers are just not good enough and all those guys were better pitchers going into FA or being extended.

I have been very vocal about Arte not going for it for all the years he has had Trout and so if this was my money, I would already have been surrounding Trout with the absolute best team I could buy every year since 2012 and this year would be no different. As I have shown pitching wise with bWar on Cole, he simply is not worth the big money all those BETTER pitchers got. I know this market is different and I like Cole but if all those previous pitchers were that much better, why offer him even more than what they got? Doesn't make much sense. Those of you offering him 7/245 are insane. I would max out at 6/180. If he really wants to play out west, he would be getting the same years Verlander did and more money and he is not the pitcher Verlander was with Detroit so there's that too.

I know a lot of you are absolutely obsessed with Cole but look at those contracts and compare the WAR. Cole is good but not as good as you are making him out to be.

 

1 hour ago, NeverOver said:

I don't think WAR is generally regarded as a great measurement for pitcher value. 

Taking the average of the player's 3 seasons more traditional stats prior to FA says Cole is worth the money his peer's received. 

Cole has more then proven he belongs on that list, and his greatest advantage is he is entering the market a year younger than Max and David did. A 7 year deal is much more palatable for a 29 year old than a 30 year old.  

If it's my money, I am spending $1 million more than the next highest bidder to make Cole a Halo. 

 

couple of nice posts here. 

adding a couple of other guys:

Zito - got 7/126 prior to the 2007 season.  His age 29 year.  The 3 years before that he avg'd a 4.05 era with 221ip and 162k
Sabathia - got 7/161 prior to the 2009 season.  His age 28 season.  3 years prior - 3.03 era, 229ip, 211k.  
Cliff Lee - 5/120 entering age 32 in 2011.  2.98 era, 222ip, 179k.  
Greinke - 6/147 on his first contract prior to 2013 going into his age 29 season.  3.83 era, 201ip, 194k.  
Tanaka - 7/155 entering his age 25 season in 2014.  
Jon Lester - 6/155 entering his age 31 season in 2015. 3.65 era, 213ip, 188k.  
Cueto - 6/130 entering his age 29 season in 2016. 2.81 era, 172ip, 156k.  
Darvish - 6/126 entering his age 31 season in 2018.  3.48 era, 144ip, 174k.  and that's skipping his surg year of 2015.  
Corbin - 6/140 entering age 29 season in 2019. 4.03 era, 182ip, 185k.
It's a little off to include guys like Kershaw, Felix, and Verlander because they weren't free agents.  

I think the analysis can work both ways.  Does it mean anything when guys weren't quite as good prior to the 3 year averages posted? 

I would guess that Cole will get that 7th year and to me, the thing that bodes well is that he's a true strikeout pitcher.   Like Scherzer and Verlander.  Missing bats at a higher rate than a guy like Price.  

7/210-224 is where I think Cole will end up.