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What's the Absolute Maximum you would spend on Gerrit Cole? (And others?)


Angelsjunky

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If you really want a player - you have no choice but to over pay for him.  You just need to decide if you want that player or not.  Giving pitchers long contracts doesn't seem to have a great history - but that's the price of doing business today. Cole seems like a reasonable gamble.  He appears to be worth the risk.  He's young.  He's a stud.  He pitches well in the postseason. He's an OC guy.  He's not a jerk.

Sign him for whatever it takes. Live with the outcome...

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You guys really think Strasburg is worth $25M/yr? He's a boras client so he'll easily push $28M-$31M/ yr

If we're saying he's worth $25M then why not do this?:

Payroll currently: $141.7M; open to $190M.

Sign Cole: 7yr $217M ($26M in first year)

Sign Strasburg: 5yr $125M ($23M in first year)

Payroll: $190.7M

Once Simmons and Cozart come off books in 2021 then add another bat. 

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11 minutes ago, wopphil said:

I think a question that really needs to be asked is whether we are better off putting all the eggs into the Cole basket, or whether the money is better spent among multiple players. 

Is it better to have Cole at $245 mil, or Wheeler, Bungarner, Odorizzi and Grandal for the same price? 

I think you are better off going for the more sure bet.  The mid tier 30yo starer still isn't a great investment.  It's better than it was, but still not very good.  

the guys who have gotten 3+ over the last 3 years are Eovaldi, Kikuchi, Lynn, Arrieta, Cobb, Minor, Darvish, Corbin, Nova, Rich Hill.  

before that it was even worse - Zimmermann, Samardzija, Leake, Kazmir, Happ, Shields, Santana, McCarthy, Garza, Jimenez, Feldman, Vargas, Sanchez, Jackson, Guthrie, Wilson, Buehrle.

There are so many landmines in that group it's crazy.  Unless they feel very strongly about someone in that crew then you steer clear of it and go after someone in the 1-2 year range.  What are the odds that Cole regresses to a mediocre pitcher for the next 4-5 years if he's healthy?  So you've got a much better chance of being right for the next half decade than you do with anyone else on the FA list.  

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4 minutes ago, wopphil said:

I think a question that really needs to be asked is whether we are better off putting all the eggs into the Cole basket, or whether the money is better spent among multiple players. 

Is it better to have Cole at $245 mil, or Wheeler, Bungarner, Odorizzi and Grandal for the same price? 

I'd actually take Cole over those four, to be honest. Wheeler is the only one that I really want, but I also think he's going to get wildly overpaid.

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Maximums...only listed players in which I'd be interested in - which is a very wide net.

  • Starters:
    • Cole: Ugh - 7/$245m, and I guess you may as well call it 7/$250m. We need him, no matter the price 😞 I'm hoping though that the Angels will only needc 7/$225m though, and other teams would have to go north of $250m to get into the discussion.
    • Strasburg: 6/$200m
    • Wheeler: 4/$75m, or 5/$85m
    • Bumgarner: 3/$60m
    • Ryu: 3/$75m
    • Hamels: 1/$13m (higher AAV to keep him at one year)
    • Keuchel: 2/$30m (also higher AAV to keep him on fewer years)
    • Odorizzi: 3/$36m
    • Hill: 1/$13m
    • Pineda, Gibson: 2/$20m
    • Porcello: 1/$11m
    • Roark, Wood, Wacha, Anderson: 1/$8.5m
    • Chacin, Bailey, Nova, Miley, Moore, Smyly, Pomeranz, Gio: 1/$6m
  • Position Players:
    • Grandal: 3/$39m, very begrudgingly.
    • d'Arnaud, Jason Castro: 2/$15m
    • Maldonado, Chirinos, AvilaRomine, Cervelli: 1/$5m
    • Moustakas: 2/$25m
    • Donaldson: 3/$60m, ideally with the third year as an option.
    • Kendrick, Schoop, Frazier, Starlin Castro, : 1/$8m
    • Calhoun, Maybin: 1/$7.5
    • Iglesias, Hechevarria, Forsythe, Sogard, Zobrist: $1/5m
    • Rendon: 4/$120m
  • Relievers:
    • McHugh: 2/$14m
    • Martin, Reed, Hudson, Kintzler, Harris: 2/$12m
    • Hirano, Swarzak, Liriano, Rondon, Strop, Stammen, Romo 1/$6m
Edited by totdprods
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On ‎10‎/‎29‎/‎2019 at 8:39 AM, True Grich said:

If you really want a player - you have no choice but to over pay for him.  You just need to decide if you want that player or not.  Giving pitchers long contracts doesn't seem to have a great history - but that's the price of doing business today. Cole seems like a reasonable gamble.  He appears to be worth the risk.  He's young.  He's a stud.  He pitches well in the postseason. He's an OC guy.  He's not a jerk.

Sign him for whatever it takes. Live with the outcome...

Yep, it's like I said about another superstar from SoCal, Arenado.    Cole checks off all of the boxes: stud pitcher, durable, local guy, not a jerk, only turns 30 in 2020.   

I'm good with signing Cole, Wheeler, and either D'Arnaud, Castro, or Machete.

Edited by Angel Oracle
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1 hour ago, True Grich said:

If you really want a player - you have no choice but to over pay for him.  You just need to decide if you want that player or not.  Giving pitchers long contracts doesn't seem to have a great history - but that's the price of doing business today. Cole seems like a reasonable gamble.  He appears to be worth the risk.  He's young.  He's a stud.  He pitches well in the postseason. He's an OC guy.  He's not a jerk.

Sign him for whatever it takes. Live with the outcome...

I like the he's not a jerk comment... which pitchers are jerks which are not? How many pitchers in MLB are you close to? 

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I think we'll probably have to put in an opt-out for Cole - that has some tangible $$ value attached to it, and will help reduce the total value / AAV on the contract.   

Maybe a 7/225 with a 3-year opt-out, a $32m AAV.   That plus playing "at home" might be enough - but I think that's probably the "min max", if you will.  

That could leave enough to maybe sign Hamels and Grandal, or "just" Wheeler alone, (no Grandal.)

Cole, Wheeler *and* Grandal seems out of reach - but is my "magical thinking" haul for the offseason.

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I think it comes down to this. Its the same as it was in the beltre winter. If the reality is we need him, or someone like him, and there is no one else like him, and we have no better in house option... thats the guy you overpay for. 

Do i think we should give him 300? No. Is say 210 over 7 good? Probably. If we offer that and he says 230, and im yours? Yeah, i still would.

Id rather pay the extra 20 mill than lose him, have nothing close to him the next few years, and spend that 20 anyway on guys like cahill and harvey.

I think its a good bet that cole would provide as much to us as cj wilson and hamilton combined, so id be ok giving him the money they got combined.

We need him. Hes hinted he wants to play here. Has history with some people with the org, etc etc. 

But make sure to save some for wheeler, rendon and grandal, obviously.

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On 10/28/2019 at 10:48 PM, Calzone 2 said:

No doubt. My offers are ridiculous and unattainable. The players want all they can get and I understand that but they should somehow allow the team an escape method. I’m all for paying a guy like Cole 7/250 if he earns it great, but if he gives us three solid seasons and then sucks badly for four seasons it gets frustrating for the team and the fans. It can be draining for everyone. Teams should be able to get insurance to buy out non performing players and get salary relief from the league to move forward. 

Mike Trout made $1 million in 2014, when he was the MVP. Should he have been able to get out of his contract and make $30 million?

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46 minutes ago, Dollar Bill said:

Mike Trout made $1 million in 2014, when he was the MVP. Should he have been able to get out of his contract and make $30 million?

No he should not. He got a $1.2M signing bonus out of high school. They also gave him that pre-arbitration deal for $1M. They rewarded him with an extension deal after his 2014 deal. He was compensated pretty well for a player his age. 

My point is when teams make lucrative long term agreement with guaranteed money there should be a way to get out of getting stuck with the AAV attachment if the player completely fails to perform at an acceptable level that coincides with his level of pay. 

 

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1 hour ago, Stradling said:

So players make shit money early despite possibly being great, but the moment they make great money in decline the owners should be able to get out of the contract?  Yea bullshit. 

I agree ... but if a owner releases a player I think the money owed should not be counted towards  the teams luxury tax. There no luxury in paying a player you released and also having it count against the luxury cap. It’s like a double yammy! 

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On 10/28/2019 at 9:29 PM, Dochalo said:

Max:

Cole: 7/231. 
Grandal:  4/60
Wheeler:  5/90
Rendon 7/210
Donaldson 2/40
Moustakas 3/30
Strasburg 5/125
Ryu 3/60
Odorizzi 3/50
Bumgarner 4/75
Gibson 3/30
Hamels 2/24
Smith 2/20
d'Arnaud 2/16

we won't get all of the top 3 I listed at that price.  maybe not even two them.  
 

we can afford it. i've got one of these babies i've been hanging onto for just such a day as this:

Image result for 50,000,000,000 bill

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1 hour ago, Troll Daddy said:

I agree ... but if a owner releases a player I think the money owed should not be counted towards  the teams luxury tax. There no luxury in paying a player you released and also having it count against the luxury cap. It’s like a double yammy! 

I don’t disagree.  I think they should be able to amnesty one contract at a time. 

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52 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I don’t disagree.  I think they should be able to amnesty one contract at a time. 

I’m not saying that the team should get out of paying the entire contract. I’m suggesting that they should be allowed an amnesty against the AAV because of their good faith obligation. The Hamilton contract is a perfect example of that.

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