That Simmons Trade is Looking Pretty Good

[Lou]

58 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

yea i was wrong.  happens often enough haha.  To be fair to myself tho, I settled down after the initial news on the trade and didn't hate it so much by the end of that day.  Even got around to liking it before the end of the winter meetings ! 

yeah, that's what usually happens, especially when there are prospects involved. 

Edited April 10, 2017 by Lou

[ScruffytheJanitor]

I probably am miss remembering, but I think my first thought about this trade was, "That price sounds about right," and was upgraded to. "We definitely got the best of this deall." About a month before this trade, I read a bunch of stuff talking about how Simmons wasn't just the best defender in baseball, he was the best by a fair margin. When I looked into his offensive numbers and I realized that there was a chance he could end up on the positive side of the ledger there-- and that his contract was just flipping fantastic-- I was happy. I hated to see Newcomb go-- I still think there is a really, really good pitcher there-- but Simmons was always going to be a plus player even if he didn't hit a lick.

[DMVol]

Guilty as charged...my problem wasn't with Simmons....I thought Newcomb could be a stud and I just didn't think we needed to be giving up a stud pitching prospect after so many years without one....I also wondered if Simmons could be "the piece", by himself, to push us into the playoff picture....If I told you the Angels wouldn't make the playoffs with Simmons in his prime and the light comes on for Newcomb in a couple of years, can we re-visit things?  Not to be Donald Trump and never, ever admit I'm wrong but the final chapter hasn't been written yet....for now though, I'll take Simmons and be glad we have him....

[fan_since79]

How many of us thought Newcomb would struggle in the minors like he did?

At the time it was reasonable to question the trade. Hindsight is always 20/20.

 

 

[Taylor]

I'm so glad Simmons saved his hits for the regular season.

 

 

 

 

(Anyone remember that quote from Spring Training last year? No? Oh well.)

[eaterfan]

44 minutes ago, fan_since79 said:

How many of us thought Newcomb would struggle in the minors like he did?

At the time it was reasonable to question the trade. Hindsight is always 20/20.

 

 

Lots of people. The rate of flame outs, especially among pitching prospects is huge. Even top 10 overall prospects who are pitchers bust very often.

But even if he doesn't "bust" I think people underestimated how good Newcomb would have to be to accumulate the value Simmons would produce over the 5 remaining years. A 3.5 - 4 WAR pitcher is really really great. 

I don't remember the exact reason for the comparison but basically I think Simmons had outproduced Greinke over a long period of time. This was even not considering some room for improvement for Simmons. The odds of SN becoming Greinke are extremely small.

The upside of Newcomb is simply $. If he produced nearly equal value to Simmons he would free up money elsewhere.

[Blarg]

I like 162 games of the top shortstop in baseball over a once rated top 100 prospect. Simmons is a rare commodity that the Angels were very lucky to aquire. In hindsight the Braves screwed up.

[zenmaster]

Newcomb has an 8.31 ERA after his first start in AAA this year. 

[aznhockeyguy]

We all can't hit 100%.  

[CanadianHalo]

I was so excited for the possibility of a Nuke, Richards, Skaggs and Heaney rotation that I would've been upset with almost any trade return.

With that said, I'm very happy with this now. Simmons is hands down the best defensive SS in the league. If he can hit .280 again combined with his amazing defense then I'll take this anyday over Nuke.

[Angel Oracle]

Right now, Nuke is pitching like Nuke LaLoosh, before Crash Davis gets a hold of him.  And Chris Ellis isn't exactly setting the world on fire either. 

[Chuck]

On 9/17/2016 at 10:12 PM, CALZONE said:

Chuck didn't like the trade.

I was initially against it, mostly shocked that we traded our top prospect, until I did more research on Simmons. I was only looking at his offensive stats. Once I started reading scouting reports, watching videos, I came around quickly on the trade. 

[Chuck]

Same thread that I was initially against it..

  On 11/12/2015 at 8:36 PM, Chuck Richter said:

and he does have some pop. 17 bombs and 27 doubles a couple seasons ago. 

.299/.352/.397 career hitter in the minors. 

 

@calscuf was spot on.

  On 11/12/2015 at 10:28 PM, calscuf said:

My prediction, though it looks like it might be a little late: Chuck will be angry, then soften, then defend the trade.

Hey Chuck.

[Chuck]

After spring training and a month of the regular season, I was sold.

 

[Richard]

Think it was mostly shock the price the Angels had to pay. Newcomb was seen as almost untouchable.

 

Thanks again Atlanta! At least you fleeced the DBACKS and have Dansby Swanson to be excited over.

 

 

[AngelsLakersFan]

I was pretty happy with the trade when it was made. Newcomb's upside is basically what I expect the Angels to get out of Simmons. The difference is the contracts, but Simmons is still very affordable. Where I wasn't on board was with not doing anything beyond that to address the 2016 team.  A year later we look like we are in a lot better shape then we were then.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

halobob

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Posted November 12, 2015 · Report post

The fact that AW hates this trade from the get go means it will be a rousing success for the Halos.

Jimmag, CALZONE, Vladdylonglegs and 3 others like this  Like this

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[ettin]

To be fair to those that were upset about losing Newcomb and Ellis, they were, essentially, our two best pitching prospects in a very barren system and the thought of losing them without anything else remotely close to the Majors made everyone nervous to one degree or another.

That being said Eppler traded a lot of uncertainty in prospects (and as the other poster said, future dollars against payroll) for a lot more certainty in our defense and a bit of upside in our offense.

[Angel Oracle]

All you need to know about what shape Dipeutered left the Halos farm system in, is that Nuke and Ellis were considered basically the two best pitching prospects at one point.

Now?   Anyone's guess what kind of career they will have

[Inside Pitch]

13 hours ago, Lou said:

. . . and that was just a little trip down memory lane, folks.

I just re-read the entire Simmons thread from when it went down...    Wonder how many people still think Eppler is an idiot or want Dipoto back....

Good times.. .    Thanks for being you, Lou...

[Inside Pitch]

On 4/10/2017 at 10:20 AM, fan_since79 said:

How many of us thought Newcomb would struggle in the minors like he did?

At the time it was reasonable to question the trade. Hindsight is always 20/20.

Newcomb is the sort of guy that will make different people look stupid at various points in his development.   Scouts look at him and see what he should be, it's hard not to get sucked in by what he is physically gifted with.   My lack of noise regarding moving him pretty much says where I stood on it... but Ill be the first to argue that it really doesn't matter how he's done, it could still all come together for him at some point and bam!

Baseball is just the hardest sport to consistently predict future results in.   Even an inner circle HOFer can fall off at a rate we have never seen before like AP, and a kid from a cold weather state can go on to become someone in the conversation about the GOAT....

[eaterfan]

3 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Newcomb is the sort of guy that will make different people look stupid at various points in his development.   Scouts look at him and see what he should be, it's hard not to get sucked in by what he is physically gifted with.   My lack of noise regarding moving him pretty much says where I stood on it... but Ill be the first to argue that it really doesn't matter how he's done, it could still all come together for him at some point and bam!

Baseball is just the hardest sport to consistently predict future results in.   Even an inner circle HOFer can call off at a rate we have never seen before like AP, and a kid from a cold weather state can go on to become someone in the conversation about the GOAT....

Agreed. He might still be an "Ace" and that will really be the only way the trade goes badly for the Angels.

That being said, every year his odds of hitting that ceiling decrease and with those odds, his value. Is there really much difference between him and Meyer? The only difference I see is time. 

[Inside Pitch]

22 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

That being said, every year his odds of hitting that ceiling decrease and with those odds, his value. Is there really much difference between him and Meyer? The only difference I see is time. 

I wanted to make this comparison as well.   For all the hate Eppler got about obliterating our ML depth -- he essentially reestablished it via the waiver wire.   Some of the "wash-outs" he's picked up already represent greater potential value that what Ellis brought to the table - -and Meyer was Newcomb not long ago.  In both cases, their current teams stand to benefit from their "potential".

[ukyah]

17 hours ago, Lou said:

. . . and that was just a little trip down memory lane, folks.

how do you look that up in a single thread? i want to see what i said.

[wopphil]

4 hours ago, eaterfan said:

Agreed. He might still be an "Ace" and that will really be the only way the trade goes badly for the Angels.

That being said, every year his odds of hitting that ceiling decrease and with those odds, his value. Is there really much difference between him and Meyer? The only difference I see is time. 

If I recall correctly, you and I quickly started to like the trade.