That Simmons Trade is Looking Pretty Good

[eaterfan]

4 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Newcomb still has top of the rotation stuff with limited miles on the arm. Simmons has been in the league 5 years now, and while I think he will improve as a hitter, he is not going to turn himself into the hitter Braves fans were dreaming on after his rookie season.

Simmons has been int he league 5 years but he's only 3 years older than Newcomb. Both have room to improve but even a slight improvement from Simmons offensively makes him so valuable. I don't think he'll really become a consistent 15 HR guy, but I think it's as likely as it is that Newcomb pitches like Zach Grienke. And Simmons even now is probably more value an a year to year basis than Grienke.

[Docwaukee]

Simmons is the best defensive SS I have ever seen.  He's always everywhere.  He's like an X-men of defense.   Loved the player from the first second I heard of the trade.  Then I found out what we gave up and I was pretty disappointed.  I felt we overpaid.  I also felt like even though Simmons was an upgrade over Aybar (by a decent amount), The amount of upgrade we could have obtained at LF or 2b by trading that package would have been a larger delta.  I also understood the notion that we were going to need a SS in 2017, but a lot can happen and it did.  

So the same reasoning that governs spending on free agents should also apply to spending prospects in trade.  It's just as easy to get burned in the trade market as it is laying out for a free agent.  Some say that Arte dodged a bullet by not signing anyone, but Simmons value will eventually start to be less that what it was when we acquired him and having him for two lost years doesn't do much.  So essentially, we gave up 1yr of Aybar, and 6 years of club control of two pitchers that are likely to find their way into a rotation at anywhere from the #2-#5 slots.  That's 12 years of rotation arms lost for what will amount to 3 years of Simmons at best.  

The silver lining is that Simmons probably increased his value a bit this year with the improvement at the plate.  So if things go nuclear in 2018 and 2019, and his bat has truly turned a corner, he might very well be able to net us a similar if not better return than what we gave up.  

 

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

Lou and I liked the trade and really,  that is all that matters. 

Among media guys, Keith Law (who get's a lot of hate here), went on record from the get go that the deal was a bit light for Atlanta.   Always found it funny people believed we gave up too much.  I understand there was info he could have been had for less, but that's more an indication of Atlanta's undervaluing Simmons than the Angels having been stupid IMO.

[Richard]

Some good quotes here where people were saying Simmons = Brendan Ryan.

 

 

[beatlesrule]

Look back at my posts. I told you Ellis would be traded(not sure for what or whom though) and I was in favor of the Simmons trade.  I don't remember typing that I loved it but I do remember being excited about it.

 

[DailyHalo]

What about Kole Calhoun, C.J. Cron and a mid/low tier prospect for Carlos Gonzalez and Jon Gray?

[Homebrewer]

8 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

The problem is looking at it as love it or hate it. If I remember correctly, a few really loved it, a few really hated it, but most were somewhere in-between, feeling that acquiring Simmons was a good thing but trading away your two best prospects when you have the worst farm system in baseball wasn't so good, and it remained to be seen whether this would be good in the long run.

Furthermore, I also think the general view was that it would be good for the Angels for a year or two, but depending upon how Newcomb especially developed, could look bad in a couple years. So yeah, the trade looks good so far--but I think everyone knew it would after year one.

So yeah...I'm not buying your "Chuck and I were right, and everyone else was wrong" view, Homebrewer. Most felt ambivalent and expected the trade to look good for a year or two.

Point taken..Wasn't really what I meant, but it is what I said, and I've been around MB's long enough that I should know better than to word something that way.

 

[Ohtaniland]

11 hours ago, Homebrewer said:

I think Chuck and I were the only ones that thought Simmons could surprise everyone who was tearing out their hair when we traded young pitching for him, but if there is an unexpected bright spot in this organization, it's gotta be him.

" In 70 games from June 23 to Thursday — almost half a season — Simmons hit .333 with an .819 on-base-plus-slugging percentage, 72 points higher than his career .261 average and 146 points higher than his career .673 OPS."

http://www.latimes.com/sports/angels/la-sp-angels-blue-jays-20160916-snap-story.html

Him and Trout and Kole, and even Jett.. are a nice foundation for Eppler build around over the next couple of seasons.

Chuck didn't like the trade.

[gurn67]

When I saw that about 99% of the fans on the Braves forums absolutely hated the deal, I liked it.

[ten ocho recon scout]

I hated it. Still have my reasons.

That said, looking at it now, I like it. Would like to have held on to Newcomb (especially after the boogeyman killed all our pitching this year), but I absolutely agree, he's a very solid young player and a good guy to consider a core piece.

[Angelsjunky]

The jury is still out on Newcomb. First of all, there's no way he was ready for the majors this year--not with that high walk ratio he put up in AA. Second of all, he has control problems. He may work them out, but he may not.

But I do think Newcomb has a good chance of being a #3 starter, maybe #2. But even so, Simmons will be worth more for the life of his contract. After that, Newcomb will probably be a more valuable player.

[Oz27]

Simmons' offensive surge is both interesting and strange. At 94 wRC+ he is a much better hitter than he was in 2014 or 2015. Trying to work out why is challenging though. His walk and strikeout rates are very similar, so his better production has been driven almost entirely by a higher BABIP. But that doesn't make much sense. His average exit velocity is up, but only by 0.5 MPH. He's making hard contact at a rate below his career norm and has a lower line drive rate than last year. He was probably unlucky at the plate last year and that has flipped this year, where he has probably been quite lucky. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle and a mid to high 80s wRC+ is a reasonable hope for next year and that's obviously fine for a shortstop whose bat is secondary.

I still think the trade made no sense for us and I don't see how that has changed with the benefit of hindsight, but he is doing a nice job of retaining trade value by hitting better than most would have expected - especially during this very strong hot streak. He was always likely to come in and be a 3-4 win player in his first season or two with us and that is roughly what he has delivered, depending on your metric of choice.

[2112]

I was more disappointed with after the trade when the Angels basically became dumpster divers and any chance of having a playoff bound club was severely diminished.  

[Troll Daddy]

Trading two prospects that may never amount to anything ...

Best trade in Angels history!

[Blarg]

On ‎11‎/‎12‎/‎2015 at 3:57 PM, Homebrewer said:

Simmons is crazy good and any team would be lucky to have him at SS.

But this is way too much to pay.

Unless... well...can Simmons lead off?

Aybar sure couldn't, and we wont have an offense unless we get someone who can really lead off.

Looks like you weren't as immediately on board as you claim but not nearly as negative as most of the response the day of the trade. And as for Chuck?

 

On ‎11‎/‎12‎/‎2015 at 4:09 PM, Chuckster70 said:

Bring back Dipoto. 

 

Booo! 

 

It took a few people a day or two to warm up to the trade after having numerous discussions over several threads. Some still don't like it and it is probably because the hellstorm of pitching attrition wiped out the season and bolsters their belief that Newcomb and Ellis would be worth more to the Angels in 2017. Left out of that equation is the Angels wouldn't have a reliable shortstop and defense up the middle is critical for any team with an aspiration to be successful coupled with there is no timetable for Newcomb or Ellis to reach the majors.

 

[Tyler]

Still prefer Bradley Zimmer over them all.

[Tank]

Didn't like Irving up our top two prospects and thought we got totally fleeced on this deal.

glad to see that it's worked out better than anticipated. Simmons is fun to watch and he's hit better than hoped for.

[Blarg]

5 minutes ago, Tank said:

Didn't like Irving up our top two prospects and thought we got totally fleeced on this deal.

glad to see that it's worked out better than anticipated. Simmons is fun to watch and he's hit better than hoped for.

To be honest, nobody likes Irving.

[Tank]

2 minutes ago, Blarg said:

To be honest, nobody likes Irving.

The 142nd fastest gun . . . in the west.

irving.

[tdawg87]

13 minutes ago, Tyler said:

Still prefer Bradley Zimmer over them all.

I lost the "Guess the Poster before reading their name" game. This one was all AO.

[Blarg]

2 hours ago, Tank said:

The 142nd fastest gun . . . in the west.

irving.

He was mean and nasty right clear through,
Which was kinda weird, 'cause he was yellow too.
 

[ettin]

I like what I had to say on the matter:

Today I am even more enthused about the trade in terms of what Simmons brings to the team defensively. Additionally I think he will have even more value moving forward whenever I get around to continue working on my Primer which, as usual, is like the length of War & Peace and I'm only 20% of the way through typing it. I'm so f*ck*ng wordy jesus I need to self-edit.

[Troll Daddy]

The two big reasons why fans go to the ballpark is to watch Trout and Simmons. 

That's all you need to know about the trade. 

 

[Tank]

2 hours ago, Blarg said:

He was mean and nasty right clear through,
Which was kinda weird, 'cause he was yellow too.
 

there were 141 faster than he,

but irving was looking for 143.

[Angel Oracle]

9 hours ago, Tank said:

The 142nd fastest gun . . . in the west.

irving.

Big, dumb, dead Irving!!!