Rebuild?

[tomsred]

I disagree, there is no harm in going into Spring training with Weaver.  We can't trade him, and he will draw next year's salary no matter what.  Nothing to lose at this point, other than him taking up a starting slot that someone else could have.  And we don't have that much pitching depth, if any.  Skaggs isn't going to step right up to speed with more than a year off from competitive pitching.  Who knows about Newcomb, he's a year away at best and there are no guarantees with him.  Tropeano is not a sure thing either.  And there are plenty of question marks around Santiago and Shoemaker after their second half performances this year.  Ellis and Smith - ???

[tomsred]

I agree with everything you said HB, however I'm guessing we are better than you think overall at pitcher per at bat.

 

I couldn't find the team pitches per AB, but we have the first and 40 ranked player in pitches per AB, Trout and Pujols.  Trout sees 4.37 per AB, and Pujols 3.87.

[AngelsLakersFan]

I actually do not think the luxury tax will be raised up much.  With the current tax, top 100 players are going up as seen as the qualifying offer price.  High priced free agents are going up.  But you look at the standings.  And the lower priced teams are holding their own against the higher priced teams.  Parity actually is better business than a few teams spending like drunk sailors.  And when there is only a handful of teams to go over the luxury tax.  Again, chances are it won't go up by much.  Until you find that teams will have financial trouble due to the tax, they will keep them as low as possible that will satisfy the union.  

 

The union will not be happy with anything less than a substantial raise in the tax threshold. If the tax doesn't go up much then they will have to lose the escalating tax rates for consecutive years over the threshold. From the players perspective there is something substantially wrong with the current CBA when it comes to compensating the players.

 

In addition to what I already mentioned, expect the players to look for a decrease in club control from 6 years to 5 years, an additional year of arbitration eligibility ( so after the first full season ) and a huge bump in the minimum wage.

[Homebrewer]

Weaver's velocity is not going to improve in the off season. What we have seen from Weaver this season is what he now is.

It's time to accept this obvious fact, and decide how to go foreword with it.

An NL team could use a soft tossing guy like Weaver, but his stuff just isn't going to work in the AL any longer.

So yes, he CAN be traded somewhere, but only if he wants to be, and only if the Angels pay part of his salary.

Dipoto could have gotten something for him, but unfortunately he isn't around anymore. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

I'm not sold on Weaver being completely done as a pitcher in the AL. He's going to get paid one more year anyway, so why bother with the bad blood of cutting him or trying to trade him when we could simply keep him around. I could live with him as the 5th starter, and I'm definitely open to the idea of him and CJ sharing the 5th spot, with Weaver throwing home games, and each working out of the pen when not starting. At the very least Weaver and Wilson represent interesting options for relief and should be explored.

[beatlesrule]

Didn't the OP make a thread about a bunch of reasons the Angels would make the playoffs??  Now he is wanting a rebuild?  OP forget to take his meds?

[Inside Pitch]

Outside of CJ Cron(who I don't think highly of at all), it's been 4 years since the angels developed an everyday player.

 

 

Wouldn't be a big deal if they had some players on the way, but there aren't any.

It could be another 3-6 years before they finally develop an everyday player.

 

People like to talk about how bad the farm system was when Dipoto got here, but Trout, Conger, Cron, Amarista, Grichuk, Segura, Calhoun, Romine, Chatwood, Cowart, Shoemaker, and Richards were all in the system, heck even Jett Bandy was in the system at the time.   

You look at what's in the system that could be of help now and it really doesn't compare.   Offensively you have what, Kubitza, maybe Stephen McGee and barring a huge turnaround, Yarborough in AAA to go with Nate Smith and Tropeano...  There are guys who could end up being serviceable relievers but every team has those.   You look at AA and there really isn't anything remotely close to a legit MLB hiter -- Hinshaw could be a decent 4th OFer, Sherman Johnson can't hit for average to save his life but can milk walks, but neither can be looked at as front line players.   They have some arms there, Newcomb, Ellis, McGowin (who I really like stuff wise), and the DeLoach's of the world but ... again, it's not so loaded that people should be talking about the pitching being a strength.  It's just no longer a wasteland...

 

But for all this talk about how much improved the farm system is -- it really isn't   The position players are significantly worse and while there are arms to be excited about -- it's still a very weak system.   The farm system Dipoto inherited produced 4 everyday players in Trout, Grichuk, Calhoun, and Cron, with Segura as a marginal one.   Is there anyone at AA or above that projects to be a better player than any of those guys?  Four years -- not a single legit everyday player save for maybe Kubitza.

Edited September 22, 2015 by Inside Pitch

[Inside Pitch]

Figuring out what to do with Weaver is going to be a problem.

I would be nice if he just retired. I love Weave and thank him for a lot of great games and memories...but he is hurting the pitching staff here. Maybe a move to the NL would be something for him to look at. He could extend his career if he wants to build up some numbers in his record book, but that's really the only reason for him to stay in baseball as a starting pitcher.

Sad but true, but it happens to everyone at some point.

 

I hate to say it -- because he's been a good soldier and I doubt they want to embarrass him but, the best thing that could happen to Weaver is that he come down with a mystery ailment in ST of next year and then spend some time "rehabbing" before making it back as a long reliever or swing man.  Yes he has days where he can fake his way through a lineup and get by on guts and guile, but he's just not anything close to resembling the pitcher he was even last season.

[tdawg87]

Didn't the OP make a thread about a bunch of reasons the Angels would make the playoffs??  Now he is wanting a rebuild?  OP forget to take his meds?

 

Well obviously they can't rebuild for 2015 so.....

[Homebrewer]

At the very least Weaver and Wilson represent interesting options for relief and should be explored.>>>

Not every starter can move to relief duty. Guys that started their whole career, are used to the rhythm of days off, bullpen sessions, pitching days, and the routine of life as a starting pitcher.

You can't just take someone and change what they are used to year after year, and then expect them to be ready and effective at a moments notice.

Some can adjust, most don't.

[nikkachez]

I think you go big after at least one of the big name FA's who can help contribute next year, down the road, and preferably someone who doesn't cost a draft pick (Price, Cespedes, etc. ) although I think Heyward makes the most sense long term. Sign Heyward or Price, trade from the pitching depth, sign some short term fixes, take on his salary and dump CJ, and get a plan in mind. I think this team will be competitive by 2017, and by then, Weaver, Wilson, Aybar, and Smith will be free agents, and Hamilton's deal will almost be up. A looooot of salary relief is coming up, I think Arte will be willing to spend, and I think he'll have to spend if he wants to compete. 2016 will be a big transition year, but you gotta sign one big fish.

Speaking of signing big fish, I'd think about another extension with Trout in the next 2-3 years. A Calhoun, Trout, Heyward outfield would be pretty sweet.

[gotbeer]

The union will not be happy with anything less than a substantial raise in the tax threshold. If the tax doesn't go up much then they will have to lose the escalating tax rates for consecutive years over the threshold. From the players perspective there is something substantially wrong with the current CBA when it comes to compensating the players.

 

In addition to what I already mentioned, expect the players to look for a decrease in club control from 6 years to 5 years, an additional year of arbitration eligibility ( so after the first full season ) and a huge bump in the minimum wage.

 

But the facts just don't point to that.  Average salary, minimum salary, top 100 salary, top end salary has gone up steadily.  And they will continue to go up.  And yet only a few teams (most repeat offenders) go over the tax.  Raising the tax really only benefits the Skanks and Dogs and maybe the Sux who just seem to say F the tax.  

 

You look at 2015 opening day salaries, and below $100 million was 7 teams, with the lowest at $68 million.  2014 there were 13 teams under $100 million with the lowest at $44 million.  2013 16 teams, lowest at $24 million.  

 

This just shows that all teams are beginning to spend.  And for the Union this is much better than only 2 or 3 teams going over the tax.  

 

You also have to remember that the false assumption is that because of huge tv deals teams will have lots of money.  But people are failing to take into account that these are 20-30-40 year deals.  At say 10% of salary increases a year, in 20 years salaries at todays amount would be about 670% of what they are today.  That means a $100 million salary today, in theory will be $670 million in 20 years.  And yet their TV revenue will stay fixed for another 10-20 years.  

 

So again, I don't think the tax threshhold will rise any significant amount.  And really, unless the union thinks that the MLB is stiffling payroll, which it does not seem to be.  They will keep peace and that means the owners will get what they want in a lower tax ceiling.  Unless you really think that owners outside of the Yankees and Dodgers want to spend more money?  

[Second Base]

People like to talk about how bad the farm system was when Dipoto got here, but Trout, Conger, Cron, Amarista, Grichuk, Segura, Calhoun, Romine, Chatwood, Cowart, Shoemaker, and Richards were all in the system, heck even Jett Bandy was in the system at the time.   

You look at what's in the system that could be of help now and it really doesn't compare.   Offensively you have what, Kubitza, maybe Stephen McGee and barring a huge turnaround, Yarborough in AAA to go with Nate Smith and Tropeano...  There are guys who could end up being serviceable relievers but every team has those.   You look at AA and there really isn't anything remotely close to a legit MLB hiter -- Hinshaw could be a decent 4th OFer, Sherman Johnson can't hit for average to save his life but can milk walks, but neither can be looked at as front line players.   They have some arms there, Newcomb, Ellis, McGowin (who I really like stuff wise), and the DeLoach's of the world but ... again, it's not so loaded that people should be talking about the pitching being a strength.  It's just no longer a wasteland...

 

But for all this talk about how much improved the farm system is -- it really isn't   The position players are significantly worse and while there are arms to be excited about -- it's still a very weak system.   The farm system Dipoto inherited produced 4 everyday players in Trout, Grichuk, Calhoun, and Cron, with Segura as a marginal one.   Is there anyone at AA or above that projects to be a better player than any of those guys?  Four years -- not a single legit everyday player save for maybe Kubitza.

Would you quit stealing my thunder IP?

I was seriously just about to write an article about this!

[Angel Oracle]

GB brings up a good point about salary increases as time goes on.

By even say 7-8 years from now, individual owners like Arte Moreno will be at a disadvantage as increasing numbers of multiple persons groups acquire MLB franchises, thanks to the vast increasing size of the payrolls and the decreasing power of the long term tv deals. 

 

MLB by the mid 2020's may be a lot different from today.

[Docwaukee]

People like to talk about how bad the farm system was when Dipoto got here, but Trout, Conger, Cron, Amarista, Grichuk, Segura, Calhoun, Romine, Chatwood, Cowart, Shoemaker, and Richards were all in the system, heck even Jett Bandy was in the system at the time.   

You look at what's in the system that could be of help now and it really doesn't compare.   Offensively you have what, Kubitza, maybe Stephen McGee and barring a huge turnaround, Yarborough in AAA to go with Nate Smith and Tropeano...  There are guys who could end up being serviceable relievers but every team has those.   You look at AA and there really isn't anything remotely close to a legit MLB hiter -- Hinshaw could be a decent 4th OFer, Sherman Johnson can't hit for average to save his life but can milk walks, but neither can be looked at as front line players.   They have some arms there, Newcomb, Ellis, McGowin (who I really like stuff wise), and the DeLoach's of the world but ... again, it's not so loaded that people should be talking about the pitching being a strength.  It's just no longer a wasteland...

 

But for all this talk about how much improved the farm system is -- it really isn't   The position players are significantly worse and while there are arms to be excited about -- it's still a very weak system.   The farm system Dipoto inherited produced 4 everyday players in Trout, Grichuk, Calhoun, and Cron, with Segura as a marginal one.   Is there anyone at AA or above that projects to be a better player than any of those guys?  Four years -- not a single legit everyday player save for maybe Kubitza.

maybe it's a perception thing, but Jerry inherited a mess. 

 

we had almost zero pitching prospects.  Richards, Chatwood, and maybe Shoemaker were the only ones with major league potential and we still have 2 of the 3 plus skaggs, santiago, tropeano, heaney, newcomb, smith, ellis and a bunch of others that have yet to show us all they have including a bunch of guys who will end up major league relievers

 

in 2011, our farm system included guys like pena, hellweg, roach, maronde, austin wood, jairo diaz, fabio martinez, shugel.  Besides the Richards and shoe, there were zero at AA or above and even the guys mentioned below that aren't likely to be legit major leaguers.  There weren't even any relief prospects.  I guess you could include losing Walden. 

 

on the position player side there was cron, segura and grichuk.  your're not going to get me to legitimize the prospect status of guys like amarista and romine though.  we have plenty of guys like that.  Conger was already no longer a prospect.  he had 200pa before jerry got there.  position player wise, we've given up trumbo, kendrick, grichuk, and segura.  Are there any other that would be a legitimate impact on this team or could be in the future?  To me, we increased org currency with the kendrick and trumbo trades.  I personally didn't see a lot of value in Trumbo and Kendrick is now a free agent anyway.  

 

So that leaves two position players that could be useful right now that were here when Jerry arrived yet no longer.   Yet we have a completely rebuilt SP and RP staff at the major league level and at least a core of guys with potential on the pitching side in the minors. 

 

Another thing, comparing the farm from five years ago to now is a fools errand.  We have actual results from one and very limited data on the other.   

 

Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue that we have a good farm system.  But it's certainly gotten better when you take the whole org into account.  

[NrM]

GB brings up a good point about salary increases as time goes on.

By even say 7-8 years from now, individual owners like Arte Moreno will be at a disadvantage as increasing numbers of multiple persons groups acquire MLB franchises, thanks to the vast increasing size of the payrolls and the decreasing power of the long term tv deals. 

 

MLB by the mid 2020's may be a lot different from today.

 

Lets just hope the Netflix CEO is right in predicting cable TV will be dead in 10-20 years.

The MLB needs to wake up and start favoring internet only fans. There's a lot of revenue they're missing out on.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2853481/It-s-kind-like-horse-good-car-Netflix-CEO-says-broadcast-TV-dead-2030.html

Edited September 22, 2015 by Poozy

[Docwaukee]

I forgot to add that all of that done with the pitching has been while keeping the major league team competitive.  losing Segura for nothing and Grichuk for little hurts, but overall I still see a net increase in org currency.  Mainly because we kept the right guys.  But even Segura hasn't done much since his amazing 1/2 season over two years ago.  

 

Again, it boils down to how teams normally rebuilt their farm system.  

 

They pay foreign players - Arte wouldn't allow it

They sell off current parts and weaken the major league roster.  We've done a little of that, but not really

They don't trade what they have.  We've lost a little that way, but not a ton 

They have high draft picks because of losing seasons.  We've had that ability to do that once.  

They don't lose draft picks by signing free agents.  We've lost a ton this way.  Again, mostly on Arte (imo).  

 

The improvements in our system outweigh the opportunity to do so.  

 

I'm sorry.  I just don't want 90 loss seasons when we have Mike Trout.  If that means it takes a few extra years to make the farm better, then so be it.  

[KevinJ14]

Honestly, I think Trout is destined to leave Angels eventually. His ties with the Phillies and Yankees seem way too evident to ignore.

[AngelsLakersFan]

At the very least Weaver and Wilson represent interesting options for relief and should be explored.>>>

Not every starter can move to relief duty. Guys that started their whole career, are used to the rhythm of days off, bullpen sessions, pitching days, and the routine of life as a starting pitcher.

You can't just take someone and change what they are used to year after year, and then expect them to be ready and effective at a moments notice.

Some can adjust, most don't.

 

I'm not saying it's a sure bet, but CJ has been a closer before so the idea of him going to the pen doesn't seem outlandish. Weaver was nails out of the pen in the postseason - limited sample obviously. Pitchers have a significant advantage pitching in relief, so I'm not sure why you seem to find it so outlandish.

[zenmaster]

Here's a corner outfield we should pursue...

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/150897390/cuban-lazarito-armenteros-seeks-free-agency

 

[NrM]

Here's a corner outfield we should pursue...

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/150897390/cuban-lazarito-armenteros-seeks-free-agency

 

 

Nah They blew their wad on some Cuban prospect that no other team gave a shit about.

 

Seems to be a regular occurrence with the angels.

Edited September 22, 2015 by Poozy

[Troll Daddy]

I didn't know that Trout had ties to other teams ... news to me.

[AngelsLakersFan]

But the facts just don't point to that.  Average salary, minimum salary, top 100 salary, top end salary has gone up steadily.  And they will continue to go up.  And yet only a few teams (most repeat offenders) go over the tax.  Raising the tax really only benefits the Skanks and Dogs and maybe the Sux who just seem to say F the tax.  

 

You look at 2015 opening day salaries, and below $100 million was 7 teams, with the lowest at $68 million.  2014 there were 13 teams under $100 million with the lowest at $44 million.  2013 16 teams, lowest at $24 million.  

 

This just shows that all teams are beginning to spend.  And for the Union this is much better than only 2 or 3 teams going over the tax.  

 

You also have to remember that the false assumption is that because of huge tv deals teams will have lots of money.  But people are failing to take into account that these are 20-30-40 year deals.  At say 10% of salary increases a year, in 20 years salaries at todays amount would be about 670% of what they are today.  That means a $100 million salary today, in theory will be $670 million in 20 years.  And yet their TV revenue will stay fixed for another 10-20 years.  

 

So again, I don't think the tax threshhold will rise any significant amount.  And really, unless the union thinks that the MLB is stiffling payroll, which it does not seem to be.  They will keep peace and that means the owners will get what they want in a lower tax ceiling.  Unless you really think that owners outside of the Yankees and Dodgers want to spend more money?  

 

I don't think most owners want to spend any money if possible, but you're looking at too simply. Sure most all of us would be happy if our salaries were steadily increasing, but baseball is a unique business and increases in overall salary just won't cut it.

 

The players will want their cut, and have you seen the revenue numbers? The game is changing. Risk averse players are signing away high dollar free agent years in exchange for security. The end of the steroid era has limited the value on free agent seasons in a players early to mid 30's. Teams are using the service time rules to milk every last game out of their players before needing the pony up the big bucks. And perhaps most importantly, the second wild card has made it so that just about every team - even our beloved yet terrible Angels, are right in the thick of it. 

 

Both the supply of and the demand for free agents is decreasing while the vast majority of players play under arbitrarily low salaries for most of their careers. Club control years, arbitration years and contracts signed during those periods of time all represent a savings of money for ownership over the free market value of said player. 

 

Revenues are up 321% in 19 years, and the trends seem to be increasing. More and more teams are signing big local tv deals, while shared revenue sources like MLB.tv and MLB Advanced Media are making up a larger percentage of league revenues. At the same time MLB player salaries have not kept pace with the league's growth.

Interestingly enough player salaries peaked as a % of revenue in 2002, which was the last time there was ALMOST a work stoppage, with both sides coming to a deal at the last minute.

I'd love to see a graph that shows the percentage of players under club control, in arbitration, playing under extended contracts and free agents. I'm sure we'd see huge growth in the extension group at the expensive of the free agent group.

[Stradling]

Honestly, I think Trout is destined to leave Angels eventually. His ties with the Phillies and Yankees seem way too evident to ignore.

Yes, too evident based on Internet fan websites. If he grew up in Texas would we assume he was going to the Rangers or Astros?

[beatlesrule]

Lets just hope the Netflix CEO is right in predicting cable TV will be dead in 10-20 years.

The MLB needs to wake up and start favoring internet only fans. There's a lot of revenue they're missing out on.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2853481/It-s-kind-like-horse-good-car-Netflix-CEO-says-broadcast-TV-dead-2030.html

 

Besides the lame ass blackout restrictions, MLB.TV is perfect for internet baseball fans.