Rebuild?

[gotbeer]

ANGELS' OFFENSIVE WOES WILL BE TOUGH TO FIX

 

 

Ouch Neyer.  That was just brutal.  But I guess the truth hurts.

[Vegas Halo Fan]

Besides the lame ass blackout restrictions, MLB.TV is perfect for internet baseball fans.

IMO MLB is losing out on a tremendous amount of revenue under the guise of protecting affiliate rights with their asinine blackout rules. How many more people would subscribe to MLB Extra Innings if they could actually see the games that they wanted?

[VariousCrap]

ANGELS' OFFENSIVE WOES WILL BE TOUGH TO FIX

 

 

Ouch Neyer.  That was just brutal.  But I guess the truth hurts.

 

 

 

That was nothing we Angel fans don't know.  Of course, his 2016 prediction doesn't include the Angels making some FA moves this offseason.

[disarcina]

Halos need to do something.

 

And I think they need to stock up their farm system..........

 

what happens to the big club and Trout's time with us while we are doing that -- I'm not sure.

 

but this season shows we have organizational depth issues and other issues.

 

what is really frustrating about this year's club is that from April through pretty much mid-July -- the starting rotation pitched much better than expected, The team hit well at times........but the middle inning pen stuff hurt us and defense..........

 

we were right there on the verge of a stretch run, when the wheels just came off in August. Now we're scrambling with time running out.......as I stated before, I think the Halos are going to stay just close enough to make it real frustrating to be eliminated from playoff contention on Wednesday or perhaps Thursday of the final week of the season -- hey that's almost a week away !!

 

Good thing NHL pre-season is starting up !! 

[Docwaukee]

It could be argued that part of that perception may have been due to the erosion of what had been a great farm system....   Personally, IMO Jerry has left a mess too...  One muddied even further by his taking his ball and going home. 

 

 

And now we have almost zero hitting prospects.   If you want to praise the job done in acquiring pitching then you cannot ignore the complete failure in acquiring offense.   Also, since you spoke of organizational currency -- Skaggs, Santiago, Tropeano, Heaney were all acquired by assets already in place, offensive assets Jerry inherited.   As were Jose Alvarez, Frieri, and even Greinke.

 

 

And in 2015, our farm system has maybe one guy (Kubitza), acquired by Jerry who might be a MLB player above AA.   One.    I'm a huge proponent of acquiring as much prevention as possible, but completely punting on offense isn't good.

 

 

Whatever you think of Amarista and Romine -- you cannot deny they were capable enough to acquire players of value.  Frieri was a useful player until he blew up, Alvarez has been a useful player all season and might just be a better SP option than Jered Weaver moving forward.   So, when you talk up organizational currency let's not gloss over/dismiss guys who acted as such.   Also, I really don't care if Conger had surpassed the prospect status, he was a young player who like Romine and Amarista was useful in helping acquire players of actual value moving forward.   A very strong case can be made that Jerry misspent a very valuable asset in Grichuk.   

 

BTW, while I was never a Trumbo fan (the player not the person), I was one of the very few that argued he DID have value to NL teams and that his one redeeming skill set could be exploited.   Trumbo was able to bring in Santiago and Skaggs who you more than likely DO consider to be of value.  So when it's all said and done he was an asset than helped increase our organizational currency.  

 

 

A fools errand possibly, but no less a fools errand than ignoring actual results in favor of trying to assess a value to "potential".    IMO, that's what led to the perception problem surrounding the Angels farm system in 2011.  It was bad, but it was better than people made it out to be.   

 

 

Sorry, I just don't see it.   Better than 2012 and 2013 -- fine, but comparing 2011 to now, we simply moved the pile around a bit -- gone from one extreme to the other and IMO there are even greater obstacles to overcome.

 

I follow the farm system pretty closely, I like to believe I have a pretty good handle on prospects both ours and around baseball....  While I like what's happened pitching wise, I can't recall the last time the position player base in the farm system was this barren.    This is probably the worst its been since 99 or so when guys like Brian Specht, Eplidio Guzman, Jarrod Abruzzo, Nathan Haynes and Gary Johnson were our top five position player prospects...  If you can't remember any of those guys it's not your fault -- they were all awful.  The big difference between then and now is we don't have a MLB roster with Jim Edmonds, Darin Erstad, Tim Salmon, Garret Anderson, and Troy Glaus.   All of who I would rank ahead of everyone not named Trout on the current 25 man roster and that's what concerns me moving forward.

 

Thanks for your well thought out response Doc...   I'm certain we will see guys surprise, I'm certain others will simply improve and negate some of my concerns but I really don't like what's there offensively right now and given the state of the MLB roster the situation seems magnified.

 

On the plus side, I don't believe it will get any worse.

 

You have to factor in the needs of the major league club first and foremost though.  Especially considering that this franchise is trying to win.  

 

I don't disagree that there should be balance, but it was unbalanced to start.  We started the 2012 season with our best pitching prospects outside of Richards as Hellweg, Pena, Tillaman and Maronde.  And in that season, the rotation went tits up big time.  Weaver, Wilson and Richards are the only pitchers left from the start of the 2013 season.  Shoemaker is the only other guy on the team that was around prior to JD starting his tenure.  There are a handful of guys who have seen a major league roster that were on those teams from 2012-2014 and the best one is keving Jepsen.  There are also a couple of guys who could be part of a major league club in the future.  

 

Yes there were some pieces on the position player side, but most were needed to replace the major league roster.  But overall, net negatives in terms of overall value to the franchise were really only with Grichuk and Bourjos for Freese and Salas and Segura for Greinke.  Everything else hs been a net positive or at least neutral to the org as a whole when considering the major league club.  It may be unbalanced at current, but where would you rather be?  

 

Going into the offseason having no pitching prospects and a couple of position player prospects needing 3/5's of your rotation, a bullpen overhaul and an existing turd at 3b or a LF, a 3bman, and a pen arm with an additional weakness at 2b.  But with some good pitching prospects (one of which is outstanding actually) top to bottom throughout the org and a dearth of position player potential?  It's pretty much the opposite of where it was before yet I think we are ahead on the pitching side now relative to where we were on the position player side before.  I also think we are about 1 draft ahead of where we were before.  

 

The real kicker is the consideration of opportunity.  

We lost 2 first round and 1 second round pick.  We failed to sign a big time 1st rounder.  We have done almost nothing in foreign markets and we have tried to maintain a playoff contender.  We have also been in the lower half of the draft pretty consistently.  

 

I definitely agree with ALF in that we are treading into mediocre limbo.  Doing what we have done for the major league team hasn't made enough of a difference so we need to either shit or get off the pot.  

[Docwaukee]

ANGELS' OFFENSIVE WOES WILL BE TOUGH TO FIX

 

 

Ouch Neyer.  That was just brutal.  But I guess the truth hurts.

Rob Neyer's predictions for 2015 were:

 

Boston

Cleveland

Angels.  

 

They must have forgotten that Iannetta is a free agent after this year.  

 

When one or two players in a  lineup completely suck, it's much easier to fix  than if every is just mediocre to slightly bad.  See the Angels rotation from 2013 to 2014.  If you put league average players at LF, and 2b next year, it's a different team.  

[Hollyw00d]

Arte is going to have to spend a shitload of money to turn this mess around and frankly I don't see that happening

[Docwaukee]

Arte is going to have to spend a shitload of money to turn this mess around and frankly I don't see that happening

while it's hard to disagree with this sentiment, if he were going to go over the luxury tax it would make the most sense to do it next year.  By conservative estimates we will be about 20mil below next year with our current obligations.  We then drop another 50 in payroll but with some arb increases we probably get about 60-70 mil from the cap if it goes up a bit for 2017.  

 

the post 2016 season free agent class is horrible.  the best position player is josh reddick.  we will need a SS so we'll have to save some cap space for 2017.

 

 And right now the teams needs are obvious with no farm help.  They have to know that starting the season with murphy in LF, Gia at 2b and Cowart at 3b is a recipe for .500 baseball.  You need to upgrade at least one of those positions if not two.  My guess is that they'll make a run at zobrist and a reliever but they and should add another bat as well.  

 

I also think the trade market will be pretty thin considering the amount of parity and so many teams thinking they can make it because of the 2nd wild card.  Teams like Milwaukee, Arizona, Cinnci, Col, etc should all be sellers but they won't be.  At least not all of them.  

 

Gonna have to spend some money this year for sure though.  

[Second Base]

Doc's right about this offseason being the best time to go over, just because we'll be jettisoning some serious payroll after that with Weav, Wilson, Hamiltin and more coming off the books. It'd go sthd Angeks the chance to make it a one year occurrence.

As far as needing a new SS in a couple years, I don't see it happening. Aybar is so underrated, and SS isn't a position of depth anywhere. Our only options for replacement are Baldoquin and Fletcher, and both haven't shown nearly ready for that yet. I think we'll end up extending Erick into his mid-30's.

[Angelsjunky]

International scouting is part of.......wait for it....scouting.

Development is actually taking a player, refining their ability and helping them grow as ball players as they climb the minor league ladder. That didn't really happen in the Dodgers case.

But I suppose your definition and specifics of all of this is open to interpretation.

I wil say I generally agree with the spirit of what you guys are saying though. I kinda feel like if the Angels have no international presence, lack the ability to grow position players and have nothing coming through the system, they should be spending money on high profile Cuban imports. Not sure Baldoquin fits that description.

 

I think it is a big-tent, small-tent thing in terms of how we define "development." Or specifically, whether we are talking about player development or organizational development. But regardless, scouting and player development go hand-in-hand are components of farm/org development.

 

ANGELS' OFFENSIVE WOES WILL BE TOUGH TO FIX

 

 

Ouch Neyer.  That was just brutal.  But I guess the truth hurts.

 

I didn't find that as much brutal as it is realistic. And lost in the "brutality" is that Neyer said that the Angels were lucky in 2014 and unlucky in 2015, which means they will probably even out next year. The Angels are probably going to finish this year with 81-85 wins. With a bit more luck, not to mention the shadow of the Hamilton and Dipoto fiascos a year in the past, I don't see why this very same team can't improve by a couple games into the 83-87 range. Then add a Hayward or Cespedes, deepen the bench and bullpen, and we're back to 85-90 wins and a legit contender.

 

But the thing is, the org needs a bit of luck. They need a Kubitza or Cowart to work out better than expected. They need a Jahmai Jones to establish himself as a legit prospect. They need something good to happen.

 

 

I definitely agree with ALF in that we are treading into mediocre limbo.  Doing what we have done for the major league team hasn't made enough of a difference so we need to either shit or get off the pot.  

 

See, I'd say that we've been in mediocre limbo since 2010. If we add in 2015's projected 83 wins, the team has averaged 86 wins in 2010-2015. Not bad, but not great. During those six years they have made the postseason just once, although have a small chance this year. So averaging a few games over .500 and making the postseason less than 20% of the time = mediocre limbo. I guess it is at least "high-grade mediocrity."

 

In order to do a full rebuild, the Angels would need two factors to be at play: 1) they'd need to be worse than they are, and 2) they'd need to have actual sale-able parts. As for the second, the only sale-able parts (other than Trout) are players like Calhoun, Cron, Richards, Heaney, etc - the type of players that you keep during a rebuild. Their old, expensive players - Pujols, Weaver, Wilson - have absolutely no trade value. None.

 

So the Angels are stuck with a variant of the Dipoto Plan: try to remain competitive enough, while slowly rebuilding the farm. That was the plan, at least, although we've yet to see any sign that it is coming to fruition.

 

How to remain competitive? Well, they have to target the weak spots. The problem they face is that they have adequate players at every position, but very few players who are above average at their position - and only one who is significantly above average. So they can hope that Perez/Bandy or Gio/Yarbrough/Featherston or Cowart/Kibutza or Murphy works out at their respective positions, but they can't rely on all four groupings. They need to improve at least two of them, in my opinion. And they need to figure out what will bring the biggest return with the lowest cost, and that depends upon the free agent and trade market.

 

The most obvious plan would be to go after one of Hayward, Cespedes, or Upton. But that will be expensive. If I'm Moreno though, I'm thinking about an overpay on Hayward, because he could be a second star caliber player to weather the storm with Trout if things don't work out in the next year or two. Murphy is decent, I suppose, and could hold the position down for a year or two if the team upgrades elsewhere.

 

I like the idea of going with Perez and Bandy, both because they're young and cheap, but also because they're simply place holders until Taylor Ward is ready in a couple years. In a way we could consider the next couple years of Perez-Bandy as competition to see who can be back-up to Ward in 2018. Similarly with 3B, I'd like to see what Cowart and Kibutza can do but the Angels don't exactly have a track record of third base prospects working out. The Curse of Glaus. Second base is worth upgrading, but what are the options? Bring back an aging Howie? Maybe.

 

Anyhow, so I think you have to look to upgrade two of the four: C, 2B, 3B, and LF. But by "upgrade" they need impact bats. Not another Murphy or Freese type player.

 

As for the pitching, I'm mixed. I still like the young pitching talent, and think that Richards, Heaney and Newcomb could be a formidable trio in another year or two. Add in Santiago, Shoemaker, Tropeano, not to mention Ellis and Gatto, and the Angels have eight young starters to work with over the next half decade or more. I don't know what to do with Weaver or Wilson, but I suppose you start Wilson next year and hope he's decent enough that someone wants to trade for him.

[floplag]

lol, let me see if i understand this.... we are regressing to the mean, which basically means we were lucky last year, and unlucky this year in a nutshell.  The implication to that is that the real Angels are somewhere in the middle, better than this year, worse than last.  

So...  last year we won 98, clearly we wont repeat that with 11 to go and 77 on the books.  I figure we end up at around 83-85 wins by seasons end.  That means that the real Angels are still about a 90 win club if you regress to the mean over those 2 seasons.  If 90 wins next year is third place in the west ill eat this monitor.   That having been said i don't know if we win 90 next year in any case based on the current roster.

Now i agree with the projection in many ways but not based on this math, not using regression as the logic behind it.   Just more Neyer hate, old news. 

[Stradling]

Haven't read the article, but I feel what we're seeing this year is about as good as it gets with this group of players. I could see a 3-5 game swing either way I guess. We lack talent,depth, speed, defense, and bullpen, as well as a dominant starter. We are a streaky team that isn't as good as we performed last year but isn't as bad as some think around here. If we sneak in, great, if not, well that will seem fitting of this group.

[Angel Oracle]

Extend Aybar for a max of 3-4 years (age 35/36 in last season of a new deal), and hope that his hitting again approaches where it was 2 years ago.

Edited September 23, 2015 by Angel Oracle

[gotbeer]

Extend Aybar for a max of 3-4 years (age 35/36 in last season of a new deal), and hope that his hitting again approaches where it was 2 years ago.

 

That's funny AO.  You keep screaming no more old guys.  But you want to sign a guy to his 35/36 year, and hope he gets better.  

[tomsred]

Extend Aybar for a max of 3-4 years (age 35/36 in last season of a new deal), and hope that his hitting again approaches where it was 2 years ago.

 

I think we almost have to do that, but for as few years as possible.  There is no one I can think of that can replace him next year.  I say that more in thinking of his defensive skills over what he does offensively.  There are a some stud hitting shortstops in baseball at the moment (we're playing one at the moment - Correa), and some really good ones got drafted this year, but I don't see any way of getting any of them in any way.

 

I hope we get the GM in here soon, he's got a lot to do.

[Homebrewer]

I hope we get the GM in here soon, he's got a lot to do.

[ettin]

lol, let me see if i understand this.... we are regressing to the mean, which basically means we were lucky last year, and unlucky this year in a nutshell. The implication to that is that the real Angels are somewhere in the middle, better than this year, worse than last.

So... last year we won 98, clearly we wont repeat that with 11 to go and 77 on the books. I figure we end up at around 83-85 wins by seasons end. That means that the real Angels are still about a 90 win club if you regress to the mean over those 2 seasons. If 90 wins next year is third place in the west ill eat this monitor. That having been said i don't know if we win 90 next year in any case based on the current roster.

Now i agree with the projection in many ways but not based on this math, not using regression as the logic behind it. Just more Neyer hate, old news.

As a reminder to all "lucky" and "unlucky" rarely happen over the course of an entire season. Regression to the mean can happen at any time not just from year to year.

If the Angels are under performing (i.e. low BABIP, offensive numbers that are absurdly low for the talent level of our group of hitters) regression to the mean could happen today, the beginning of next year, the middle of next year, or 3 years from now.

Matt Joyce had a .215 BABIP this year compared to a career .281 BABIP. He certainly should not be this bad but he may start turning it around today, tomorrow, next season, or beyond. From a statistics perspective as long as he keeps getting at-bats and is not affected by age or other mitigating factors there should be increased or at least career average performance at some point moving forward. There is also a smaller but real probability he gets worse (moving further from the mean).

Part of the reason you can say this with greater confidence is that Joyce is not striking out at a significantly higher rate above his career norm. He's also not walking at a significantly lower rate than his career norm. Same with his LD%, GB%, and FB% rates. Everything is fairly normal in Matt Joyce's world except that when he hits balls they are going to the ground just a little more than normal and they are finding a lot more gloves than they should:

http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=3353&position=OF&type=battedball&pid2=3353&ss1=2015&se1=2015&ss2=2015&se2=2015&cht1=hittype&cht2=battedball&vs1=ALL&vs2=ALL

This is a microcosm of the entire Angels team for most of this year. Back in the early-mid Summer the Angels regressed, briefly, to the mean with that winning streak they went on then they went backwards again and have been floating ever since.

[Angel Oracle]

No more EXPENSIVE old guys, GB

Aybar couldn't truly command that huge of a salary, could he?    And playing through age 35/36 season isn't that bad, and I am hoping he approaches his hitting through 2013. 

And besides, what shortstops are available via FA after 2016, or via trade?

Edited September 23, 2015 by Angel Oracle

[Angelsjunky]

lol, let me see if i understand this.... we are regressing to the mean, which basically means we were lucky last year, and unlucky this year in a nutshell.  The implication to that is that the real Angels are somewhere in the middle, better than this year, worse than last.  

So...  last year we won 98, clearly we wont repeat that with 11 to go and 77 on the books.  I figure we end up at around 83-85 wins by seasons end.  That means that the real Angels are still about a 90 win club if you regress to the mean over those 2 seasons.  If 90 wins next year is third place in the west ill eat this monitor.   That having been said i don't know if we win 90 next year in any case based on the current roster.

Now i agree with the projection in many ways but not based on this math, not using regression as the logic behind it.   Just more Neyer hate, old news. 

 

Here's what you're missing, well two things really. One, there are degrees of luckiness and unluckiness. But we can call last year and this year about even, or maybe we were a bit more lucky last year than we are unlucky this year. Two, it is easier to regress back then forward, so it isn't so simple that you can find the middle point between "unlucky" and "lucky" win totals. The Angels are currently on pace for 83 wins. Given their pretty good play of late, let's adjust that up to 84. Halfway between 98 and 84 is 91. But a more accurate middle point is proably 87-88 wins, which sounds about right as a projection for next year.

 

But as Stradling said, there's always a swing of games either way. If we project 87 wins for next year, that really means a range of 82-92 or so as being the range of probably expected outcome. Beyond that becomes rather unlikely (last year the Angels went into the unlikely range with those 98 wins).

[Stradling]

I said 5 games either way because to be honest would we really feel different about the roster if we won five more games. I know the easy answer is yes, but think about it. Would we feel different if Street closed that game. If Albert had one more clutch hit that drove in two runs late in a game. If Joyce had one clutch hit that got us a win. If Victorino got us a game winning hit. Or Featherston got us a game winning hit. Bottom line is no we wouldn't. Because Joyce would still be a .200 hitter Albert would still be hitting .240, and Featherston would still be a AA player forced into playing in the bigs.

[Homebrewer]

Even with 5 more wins in the regular season, this team would still be going nowhere in the post season.

[AngelsLakersFan]

It's not if, but when...

 

it's inevitable...the only thing keeping cable tv going is live sports broadcasting.

The MLB would rather sacrifice the future just to secure their precious cable revenue for what? another 10 years?

 

They are only alienating the internet only fans. 

 

Cable will stick around. It will become less mainstream, more of a luxury but it will still be popular. There is far too much money and a working business model surrounding it for it to die. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

I think we almost have to do that, but for as few years as possible.  There is no one I can think of that can replace him next year.  I say that more in thinking of his defensive skills over what he does offensively.  There are a some stud hitting shortstops in baseball at the moment (we're playing one at the moment - Correa), and some really good ones got drafted this year, but I don't see any way of getting any of them in any way.

 

I hope we get the GM in here soon, he's got a lot to do.

 

A year before the Angels called up Erick Aybar, if you had told me he'd be the starting shortstop on this team until he was 36 I would've called you bat shit crazy.

[AngelsLakersFan]

I said 5 games either way because to be honest would we really feel different about the roster if we won five more games. I know the easy answer is yes, but think about it. Would we feel different if Street closed that game. If Albert had one more clutch hit that drove in two runs late in a game. If Joyce had one clutch hit that got us a win. If Victorino got us a game winning hit. Or Featherston got us a game winning hit. Bottom line is no we wouldn't. Because Joyce would still be a .200 hitter Albert would still be hitting .240, and Featherston would still be a AA player forced into playing in the bigs.

 

 

"Luck" is actually incredibly complex, and while some may argue we've been unlucky this year, I still feel that this team is "lucky" to be this close to a playoff spot with this good of a record.

 

There are a few areas where we can see luck at play:

Player projections vs actual performance.

Team hitting with RISP, or 'sequencing' (check base runs vs actual runs)

Team record in one run games, or compared to run differential - 73-78 currently

 

Really according to those the Angels have been either fairly neutral or a little lucky actually, and that seems to align with my feelings about the team.

[haloman]

Let's be like the Astros rebuild 4-8 years, tank seasons, waste Trout years then we can challange for the 2nd wildcard spot. Then and only then will all be well. Your welcome.