Rebuild?

[ettin]

Doc, I wonder what you think of the following article on Cespedes?  As you have noted he could go for a ton of money.  I kind of like the Zobrist route, and think he would be a good fit here, but as you say for no more than three years. 

 

http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2015/9/17/9344809/cespedes-mets-mvp-free-agent-mistake

 

I think Cespedes is Fool's Gold at the price he'll end up going for (upwards of $175MM)

[NrM]

So we had Trumbo and Vlad on this team and I can confidently say that Cron takes the cake for the awkward at bat.  That said, I think he's a better hitter than Trumbo.  His obp over his last 236pa is .340.  That's just fine by me.  There is that faint inkling that because of his ability to make contact his discipline could creep in the right direction.  Regardless, he's gonna be super streaky  

 

 

.258 OBP in last 89 PA

.388 OBP in previous 147 PA

.228 OBP in 127 PA to start the year

 

 

Overall, he hasn't hurt the Angels. I think this is his ceiling though.

 

That's been the overall problem with the angels offense. Way too many replacement level players.

Edited September 25, 2015 by Poozy

[Docwaukee]

.258 OBP in last 89 PA

.388 OBP in previous 147 PA

.228 OBP in 127 PA to start the year

 

 

Overall, he hasn't hurt the Angels. I think this is his ceiling though.

 

That's been the overall problem with the angels offense. Way too many replacement level players.

streaky.  

[Docwaukee]

Doc, I wonder what you think of the following article on Cespedes?  As you have noted he could go for a ton of money.  I kind of like the Zobrist route, and think he would be a good fit here, but as you say for no more than three years. 

 

http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2015/9/17/9344809/cespedes-mets-mvp-free-agent-mistake

I saw the article.  If someone is going to pay him 170mil then they can have him.  That's utterly ludicrous.  

 

Some comps for Cespedes are Werth, Pablo, Hanley, Ellsbury, Choo, Beltre, Torii.  Those contracts ranged from 90-140mil.  

 

Hanley and Pablo getting what they got last year is closest to what I think he should get.  Somewhere around 5/100.  He's a much better defender than Hanley, but not nearly as good of a hitter.  He's a very good defender like Pablo, but he's in good shape.  

 

But his performance on the big stage in NY has gotten him at least another year.  At least.  So I think his real number is probably around 6/120 or 7/140 at most.  If it gets to the latter, I would pass.  If it's the former, I would consider it since he's not attached to that pick.  

 

There is a lot of momentum for him right now, but that stuff tends to cool as the winter comes and numbers leave the absurd and become just crazy.  

 

Rarely do big time free agents end up worth what they are paid.  I have no reason to believe that Cespedes is any less likely to provide value similar to his contract as any of the other free agents unless he truly does get 175mil.  But if he gets between 100-120, he's right in line.  

 

If someone wants to make the argument that we shouldn't pursue any of them because they are such high risk then I could understand, but convince me that the others are less risky. 

 

As an aside, I think Upton is gonna get 7/140 and Heyward 9/180.  

 

Frankly, any of the three would help tremendously, but Cespedes doesn't have the pick attached.  I'd really love to avoid any of them and if they can parlay Santiago into a reasonably productive LFer, that would be ideal.  

[NrM]

Frankly, any of the three would help tremendously, but Cespedes doesn't have the pick attached.  

 

 

 

How can you be so sure?

 

You have to remember that Angels stadium is where vets go to die. Especially guys who've spent their entire career in the NL.

 

When Cespedes played in the AL. he basically provided the same production as our very own Kole Calhoun. Now ask yourself..is Kole Calhoun worth 140-180 million?

Heyward has spent his entire career in NL hitters parks and yet he's posted an OPS over .800 only twice in his 6 year career.

 

Do you really think Cespedes, Upton and Heyward will be as productive with the Angels as they were in the NL?

We have 10+ years of evidence that says no way in hell. 

 

I agree with trading Santiago + someone else for a bat instead. Maybe also make a run at Price

Edited September 25, 2015 by Poozy

[ten ocho recon scout]

^thats a solid argument. But i dont think santiago nets us the kind of hitter we need.

Santiago and skaggs were on the other wnd of trumbo (obviously). Would you trade santiago straight up for trumbo? Not saying i wouldnt like trumbo back here (i would), but he wouldnt change the offense much. When hes hot, if trout was too, yeah, thats going to be a good time. But when hes cold, and trout is human, were back to square 1.

Its gonna take 2 bats at least, IMO. And unfortunately, i dont aee too many available via trade that can help us at 3B, C, or 2B. And we need to fix those spots if we plan to compete.

[NrM]

^thats a solid argument. But i dont think santiago nets us the kind of hitter we need.

Santiago and skaggs were on the other wnd of trumbo (obviously). Would you trade santiago straight up for trumbo? Not saying i wouldnt like trumbo back here (i would), but he wouldnt change the offense much. When hes hot, if trout was too, yeah, thats going to be a good time. But when hes cold, and trout is human, were back to square 1.

Its gonna take 2 bats at least, IMO. And unfortunately, i dont aee too many available via trade that can help us at 3B, C, or 2B. And we need to fix those spots if we plan to compete.

 

Come to think of it. You're right. Santiago wouldn't net us shit.

 

 

I wouldn't mind seeing some like this.

 

1. Sign David Price.

2. trade Heaney + one of Ellis, Gatto, Smith for a couple of upper level everyday prospects

Edited September 25, 2015 by Poozy

[Angel Oracle]

Before the Mets explosion, I was expecting maybe Torii Hunter in 2008 money for Cespedes.

Now? More like at the least Grienke after 2012 money.

Edited September 25, 2015 by Angel Oracle

[Stradling]

How can you be so sure?

You have to remember that Angels stadium is where vets go to die. Especially guys who've spent their entire career in the NL.

When Cespedes played in the AL. he basically provided the same production as our very own Kole Calhoun. Now ask yourself..is Kole Calhoun worth 140-180 million?

Heyward has spent his entire career in NL hitters parks and yet he's posted an OPS over .800 only twice in his 6 year career.

Do you really think Cespedes, Upton and Heyward will be as productive with the Angels as they were in the NL?

We have 10+ years of evidence that says no way in hell.

I agree with trading Santiago + someone else for a bat instead. Maybe also make a run at Price

Heyward played in Atlanta where it's more of a hitters park. As far as the "where veterans go to die" I really only see it as Hamilton and Albert. They were both over 30 when signed. I could be wrong but I thought each of the 3 big name free agent outfielders are under 30. Heyward would be my choice, he's a great outfielder, strong arm, left handed, sprays the ball all over the field, a bit of power, and the youngest of the three.

[Troll Daddy]

I can see the Angels signing one big free agent. It's a sellers market ... expect to over pay. If you're going to spend over $100 million dollars ... losing a draft pick shouldn't be a big stumbling block for the player you want.

Or

Go the cheaper route and sign HK, Freese, and Murphy.

[AngelsLakersFan]

I get all the squeamish posts about all of our available free agent options. I mean there is big time downside risk to all of these moves. Unfortunately we have to ask what our alternatives are? 

 

Free agents not tied to compensation will have that added value tied in. We really could use a successful first round draft pick, but what if he's another Hank Conger, or any other of a myriad of failed or marginal first round picks. And how many years down the line are they? 

 

This all comes back to the rebuild vs reload strategy. We don't really have enough tradeable assets to bring in impact players, IMO. We aren't good enough to get buy without adding impact players. Sure we could fail again, but I think our only other viable alternative is rebuilding, and that just isn't going to happen.

[Angel Oracle]

As long as they stick to under age 30 players getting the big FA bucks, that's fine by me.

No more Pujolses or Hamiltons taking up huge dollars, and waaaaay underperforming

[QuinlansMinion]

Calhoun would easily get over 100 million if he were a free agent, so yes he is worth that. Dont underestimate how desperate some GM's are.

[Second Base]

Heyward played in Atlanta where it's more of a hitters park. As far as the "where veterans go to die" I really only see it as Hamilton and Albert. They were both over 30 when signed. I could be wrong but I thought each of the 3 big name free agent outfielders are under 30. Heyward would be my choice, he's a great outfielder, strong arm, left handed, sprays the ball all over the field, a bit of power, and the youngest of the three.

 

I'm really torn on Heyward.  On the one hand, he's only 25 (going to be 26 for next season), has generational talent type of upside that has still gone unrealized, but he plays amazing defense, and is steady yet dynamic enough offensively to hit anywhere 1-5.  At the same time, he's going to require hundreds of millions, will be locked up well after his prime, never lived up to the expectations and it's unlikely he ever will.  We've seen him go into slumps that last months at a time.

 

I like Heyward as a player, but I don't like that he'll cost upwards of 200 million.  Just like I like Cespedes as a player, but not the uncertainty or price tag.  

 

Personally, if I had to guess the Angels land somebody, it'd be Justin Upton.  He's had a down year, but even then he's still reaching some of his career norms despite having to play in SD.  You can count on 25-30 doubles, 25-30 HR's, 10-20 SB and a .270 BA with a decent OBP.  He's still just 28 years old and should come cheaper than Cespedes or Heyward.  

[QuinlansMinion]

I'm really torn on Heyward.  On the one hand, he's only 25 (going to be 26 for next season), has generational talent type of upside that has still gone unrealized, but he plays amazing defense, and is steady yet dynamic enough offensively to hit anywhere 1-5.  At the same time, he's going to require hundreds of millions, will be locked up well after his prime, never lived up to the expectations and it's unlikely he ever will.  We've seen him go into slumps that last months at a time.

 

I like Heyward as a player, but I don't like that he'll cost upwards of 200 million.  Just like I like Cespedes as a player, but not the uncertainty or price tag.  

 

Personally, if I had to guess the Angels land somebody, it'd be Justin Upton.  He's had a down year, but even then he's still reaching some of his career norms despite having to play in SD.  You can count on 25-30 doubles, 25-30 HR's, 10-20 SB and a .270 BA with a decent OBP.  He's still just 28 years old and should come cheaper than Cespedes or Heyward.  

I like Justin Upton.  He has a great OBP considering he plays in Petco.  And hes had pretty good power this year.  Hes a right handed bat so he should be fine moving from Petco to Angel Stadium.  He would fit very nicely batting in front of Trout, and it would probably help his game quite a bit.  I highly doubt we sign him, but if we did we would easily have the best outfield in baseball.  

 

If we sign Upton and Zobrist this offseason, best offense in the AL by a large margin next year.  

[Hollyw00d]

Yeah, no.

[NrM]

I just don't trust everyday NL players going to the AL.

It's a pretty big adjustment for them.

 

Heyward, Cespedes and Upton are all very well rounded players, but the angels have been burned so many damn times.

 

Considering the 2017 free agent class is a joke, I expect more teams than usual to go all in this year.

The Mets are basically guaranteed to spend big.

Edited September 26, 2015 by Poozy

[gotbeer]

I just don't trust everyday NL players going to the AL.

It's a pretty big adjustment for them.

 

Heyward, Cespedes and Upton are all very well rounded players, but the angels have been burned so many damn times.

 

Considering the 2017 free agent class is a joke, I expect more teams than usual to be going all in this year, which will only raise the price. 

 

I think I'm higher on Cespedes because at least he's played in the AL.  And Oakland is more defensive than offensive.  Short while in Boston, but that can take some to get used to.  And just IMO, I think he can be a #4 hitter, where I think Heyward and Upton are more 2/3 hitters.  

 

People say RBI's are a false stat.  But again, IMO, I love when #4 hitters have a high RBI total.  Because that means they are doing their job, and hitting the guys that are doing their job and getting on base in front of them in.  And Cespedes last two years have over 100 RBI's.  Heyward has an RBI high of 82 and every other season but rookie under 60.  Upton at least had a 100 RBI season.  But he's more of an 80 RBI player.  

 

If you want a 2/3 hitter, and willing to pay over $100+ for them.  Then IMO Heyward and Upton are your players.  But all I see in Heyward and Upton is a Tampa Bay Crawford.  

[seenoevil]

Rebuild while Trout takes off to a contender after his contract

[NrM]

bump

[Farmbuildingfan]

It is too bad the Angels would likely need to go the Astros route and tear down and rebuild for success in 2027

The Dodgers and Yankees never need to rebuild.  I suspect the reason is much better ownership.

Arte would never do this, which is why I do not expect the playoffs in the near future.

It is too bad the person you would most like to be replaced is the only one who cannot be replaced.

 

[CaliAngel]

I miss gotbeer