Rebuild?

[Docwaukee]

You know Doc, you're really going to have to start taking Bryce Harper a little more seriously. He's still only 22 and he's having a much greater season than Trout's MVP season. Trout is amazing but Harper is soo much better at the plate. .330+ power hitters with an over .1000+ ops don't come around very often.

agree somewhat.  players have good seasons.  Trout has been better over the course of their short careers.  Harper will likely be as good if not better, but he's got a couple seasons to go before I am completely sold.  

[gotbeer]

Without a doubt, you don't rebuild. This team is just a few solid Free Agent's away from being a seriously legit team. I've said it before and I'll say it again, this team needs a real ace, LF, 3B and/or 2B.

Ace: Price or Cueto

LF: Cesepedes, Heyward,Upton or Gordon

2B: Zobrist

3B: Freese or Uribe (to split time w/ Cowart)

The reality is Arte has to go over the Luxury Tax Limit if he wants to turn this team around. He needs to remember a ton of money will be coming off the books in the next couple years and when the new MLB/labor contract is done, the Luxury Tax will be raised up big time because all of the money being made due to TV contracts.

 

I actually do not think the luxury tax will be raised up much.  With the current tax, top 100 players are going up as seen as the qualifying offer price.  High priced free agents are going up.  But you look at the standings.  And the lower priced teams are holding their own against the higher priced teams.  Parity actually is better business than a few teams spending like drunk sailors.  And when there is only a handful of teams to go over the luxury tax.  Again, chances are it won't go up by much.  Until you find that teams will have financial trouble due to the tax, they will keep them as low as possible that will satisfy the union.  

[Docwaukee]

I don't agree with this.  You have to remember that the Rangers and Astros will get better in the offseason.  The Angels have to get not only better than they are this year, they have to make gains on the Rangers and Astros too.  I'm not saying the Angels only have to sign the top free agents, but they need to bring in some good free agents to help this team.

They might get better.  Houston will I think.  But neither is setting the world on fire.  I'm not overly impressed with Texas.  They could just as easily drop off again.  But seattle will be better next year as well. We do have to get better though and it's going to require some money and creativity.  Trading Santiago for the right player could be huge.  As could  the addition of a couple key free agents. 

[NrM]

you'd be surprised at how close the franchises are in terms of wins and success since 2002.  They have two more playoff appearances (soon to be 3), and one more WS win.  That also has to do with their competition.  

 

But the top 3 teams in that division are probably better than the top 3 in the AL west going forward for awhile.  You look at them right now, and they certainly have the edge on how their pitching has performed, but their lineup is actually pretty pedestrian.  

 

Little bit of an understatement when they have the best pitching in baseball.

And that was accomplished with their ace, adam wainwright, on the DL all year.

Edited September 22, 2015 by Poozy

[Second Base]

So I really thought it over, and I think this is what I would do (which is to say the Angels wouldn't)

1. Keep Weav but only use him at home and have him split as the 5th starter.

2. Bring back Wilson and try to evaluate if he can be valuable to us in a relief role, or splitting time with Weav as 5th starter.

3. Trade Santiago and a younger prospect with upside like Ellis or Gatto for a young OF prospect.

4. Bring back David Murphy as the LF. He's not part of the problem, and maybe only a little part of the solution. But we just can't afford much else.

5. Trade a moderate upside prospect like Alcantara for one year of a good RP to stabilize the middle innings next year. If Morin and Bedrock figure it out then great, but we can't count on it.

6. Replace Iannetta with Bandy. We'll improve both offensively a defensively.

7. Have Kubitza take over 3B. I know Cowart is showing us the defense, but I just don't ever see him hitting in the majors. Kubitza can pick it at 3B too.

8. Re-sign Kendrick. Yup, he'll be in his 30's but the Angels would improve both offensively and defensively. If Alex Yarbrough or Sherman Johnson have bounce back years, trade them.

9. Take a very long look at Chad Hinshaw to play LF in ST. He has speed, a little pop, tons of patience, can hit a little fit average. Worst case, he's a Cowgill type and there's some value in that.

10. Promote Sean Newcomb in June. Handle with kiddy gloves.

LF Murphy RF Calhoun CF Trout DH Pujols 2B Kendrick 1B Cron SS Aybar 3B Kubitza C Perez/Bandy

Richards, Heaney, Newcomb, Shoe and Weav/Tropeano

Street, Smith, _____, Gott, Wilson, Morin, Ramos

[NrM]

So I really thought it over, and I think this is what I would do (which is to say the Angels wouldn't)

1. Keep Weav but only use him at home and have him split as the 5th starter.

2. Bring back Wilson and try to evaluate if he can be valuable to us in a relief role, or splitting time with Weav as 5th starter.

3. Trade Santiago and a younger prospect with upside like Ellis or Gatto for a young OF prospect.

4. Bring back David Murphy as the LF. He's not part of the problem, and maybe only a little part of the solution. But we just can't afford much else.

5. Trade a moderate upside prospect like Alcantara for one year of a good RP to stabilize the middle innings next year. If Morin and Bedrock figure it out then great, but we can't count on it.

6. Replace Iannetta with Bandy. We'll improve both offensively a defensively.

7. Have Kubitza take over 3B. I know Cowart is showing us the defense, but I just don't ever see him hitting in the majors. Kubitza can pick it at 3B too.

8. Re-sign Kendrick. Yup, he'll be in his 30's but the Angels would improve both offensively and defensively. If Alex Yarbrough or Sherman Johnson have bounce back years, trade them.

9. Take a very long look at Chad Hinshaw to play LF in ST. He has speed, a little pop, tons of patience, can hit a little fit average. Worst case, he's a Cowgill type and there's some value in that.

10. Promote Sean Newcomb in June. Handle with kiddy gloves.

LF Murphy RF Calhoun CF Trout DH Pujols 2B Kendrick 1B Cron SS Aybar 3B Kubitza C Perez/Bandy

Richards, Heaney, Newcomb, Shoe and Weav/Tropeano

Street, Smith, _____, Gott, Wilson, Morin, Ramos

 

I'll refer back to AngelslakersFan post.

 

 

But we have to watch out that we don't end up in the 'mediocrity trap.' If we aren't going to spend money this team will not get better, and if we don't get worse then we will continue our trend of low draft picks, and small bonus pools to go along with our near zero level of foreign presence. 

 

 

 

You're putting way too much confidence in some of these unproven guys.

Edited September 22, 2015 by Poozy

[70runner]

A good discussion.  I tend to take the macro view, any trade/FA strategy that makes the team younger, faster, and more athletic is moving in the right direction.  Not a big Cespedes fan (hitting .216 against LHP, reminiscent of a certain fellow recently traded to Texas), but if his acquisition moves the Pujols MOTO black hole down the lineup card it might be worth it.   Perez, a good catcher, is proving he can hit with consistent playing time.  Murph is a decent hitter and brings some speed.  As noted, 2B & 3B are the major challenges.  Ideally we can squeeze a couple more years out of Aybar as he's a solid SS (a rare commodity).  Trout & Calhoun, check.

 

Starting pitching can never be good enough of course, but I don't believe this is a major issue.  I worry about Street.  Guys that rely on guile and deception can lose it fast.  Gott might be another option at closer.

[Hollyw00d]

Lets be honest, trout is gone when he current contract is up. This organization is a mess and he's not going to want to be around for pujols decline

[Hollyw00d]

I'm sure he'll win multiple championships with the dodgers/cubs/yankees

[AngelsFanSince86]

A good discussion.  I tend to take the macro view, any trade/FA strategy that makes the team younger, faster, and more athletic is moving in the right direction.  Not a big Cespedes fan (hitting .216 against LHP, reminiscent of a certain fellow recently traded to Texas), but if his acquisition moves the Pujols MOTO black hole down the lineup card it might be worth it.   Perez, a good catcher, is proving he can hit with consistent playing time.  Murph is a decent hitter and brings some speed.  As noted, 2B & 3B are the major challenges.  Ideally we can squeeze a couple more years out of Aybar as he's a solid SS (a rare commodity).  Trout & Calhoun, check.

 

Starting pitching can never be good enough of course, but I don't believe this is a major issue.  I worry about Street.  Guys that rely on guile and deception can lose it fast.  Gott might be another option at closer.

 

I like Cespedes so I have to defend him.  He has a .724 OPS and 100 OPS+ against lefties, meaning he is average from one side.  Good thing that side only accounts for about 1/3 of pitchers.  He also has the 6th best fWAR amongst position players this season and is one of the most clutch hitters in baseball.  That being said, he wants a 6 year contract and because he is tearing it up in the second half will probably cost a fortune on top of the lengthy contract so I don't know if I would be in on him.  

[Guest]

I don't agree with this.  You have to remember that the Rangers and Astros will get better in the offseason.  The Angels have to get not only better than they are this year, they have to make gains on the Rangers and Astros too.  I'm not saying the Angels only have to sign the top free agents, but they need to bring in some good free agents to help this team.

The Oakland A's will likely not have the worst record in the league next year, either. The division is about to get much harder. 

[Second Base]

I'll refer back to AngelslakersFan post.

You're putting way too much confidence in some of these unproven guys.

We we did spend a little in this scenario. I think the Angels should be able to get Kendrick for 10-11 million a year and he'd be a good fit at either the 2-spot or 5-spot. He's even had a weird punt of success batting cleanup. Sure, it isn't Cespedes or Price, but it is a pretty considerable upgrade.

Plus, I'm confident that Kubitza-Bandy will provide greater value in 2016 and beyond than Freese-Iannetta in 2015.

That's an upgrade to three spots in the batting order, and upgrade to three positions on defense, an upgrade with Weav only pitching at home and inserting Newcomb into the rotation. Plus there's an additional x-factor in Tyler Skaggs.

[VariousCrap]

Lets be honest, trout is gone when he current contract is up. This organization is a mess and he's not going to want to be around for pujols decline

 

 

 

He is already around for the Pujols decline.

[floplag]

Someone, anyone, explain to me how we rebuild without trading Trout or going way over the luxury tax?
Our farm is way more than 2-3 years away and we have huge holes on the roster.
Oh and for Petes sake we do not need more starting pitching, its the one thing we have enough of assuming they all dont bomb, even without Weaver or Wilson.  
How can people still be fixated on pitching when we barely have a ML roster of position players?

Edited September 22, 2015 by floplag

[VariousCrap]

I actually do not think the luxury tax will be raised up much.  With the current tax, top 100 players are going up as seen as the qualifying offer price.  High priced free agents are going up.  But you look at the standings.  And the lower priced teams are holding their own against the higher priced teams.  Parity actually is better business than a few teams spending like drunk sailors.  And when there is only a handful of teams to go over the luxury tax.  Again, chances are it won't go up by much.  Until you find that teams will have financial trouble due to the tax, they will keep them as low as possible that will satisfy the union.  

 

 

 

I disagree completely.  We shall see.

[Stradling]

Lets be honest, trout is gone when he current contract is up. This organization is a mess and he's not going to want to be around for pujols decline

Remember when he was gone after being drafted after Grichuk. Remember when he would never sign an extension after they gave him suck a small raise after his rookie season. So no were saying Trout, is already gone in five years, because something, something. How bout we see who gets hired as GM, what kind of team we will have, who the next manager will be in the next few years, before it's a foregone conclusion he is leaving.

[Stradling]

Someone, anyone, explain to me how we rebuild without trading Trout or going way over the luxury tax?

Our farm is way more than 2-3 years away and we have huge holes on the roster.

Oh and for Petes sake we do not need more starting pitching, its the one thing we have enough of assuming they all dont bomb, even without Weaver or Wilson.

How can people still be fixated on pitching when we barely have a ML roster of position players?

By drafting better. By signing free agents that have no draft pick compensation attached. Other teams simply draft better than we do. We could also draft more college bats to speed their development to the majors. Also I would sign the best free agent that will come here and if that's a pitcher then so be it. I'll trade some pitching for hitting.

[floplag]

By drafting better. By signing free agents that have no draft pick compensation attached. Other teams simply draft better than we do. We could also draft more college bats to speed their development to the majors. Also I would sign the best free agent that will come here and if that's a pitcher then so be it. I'll trade some pitching for hitting.

 Great, so well be relevant again in 3-5.   You are right of course but thats not a one off season plan so. 

[Homebrewer]

While adding middle relief and LF-Bench are going to be important...I say..

Start with the team philosophy at the plate. (Which means rebuilding the coaching staff)

Recognizing the strike zone, working counts and making contact.. would improve the atrocious OBP.

 

A manager and a new coaching staff across the board, will be the closest thing to a "rebuild" we are going to see this off season. 

 

I would like to see where this team stands in the number of pitches per batter..I bet it isn't anywhere close to what it needs to be.

[Stradling]

I agree with everything you said HB, however I'm guessing we are better than you think overall at pitcher per at bat.

[Angel Oracle]

I wouldn't call it a traditional rebuild, more of a transition.

What they need to do is to understand what the best combination of players/pitchers is for the stadium they play in, while at the same time understanding that extreme FB pitchers are going to get hammered in Tejas and Houston with their hitting friendly confines.   That could be as many as 6 starts a season for a pitcher.

 

They need the power focus to be on right-handed hitters.

Trout, Cron, and Pujols are three of course, although who knows what Pujols will do after 2015.

The right-handed power is pretty much already there.

 

They need to have lefty hitters for balance, who are more of the gap hitting types and have some speed.   

Calhoun pretty much fits this category.   If they can get Murphy on a new short term deal and not the $7 million option, he would be another.

Cowart and Kubitza both seem to fit this category too.   Aybar needs to return to the hitter he was 2 years ago (better gap hitter, SBs), and is still only 32 in 2016. 

 

And it's important to get back to being a little more selective at the plate, without giving up the aggression on pitches in the hitter's zone.

 

The rotation cannot be too lefty top heavy.   

Heaney, Newcomb, and Skaggs would seem to be the eventual trio of lefties by 2017, unless Santiago can make it through a full season without imploding. 

Richards is one righty.    They likely need for Chris Ellis to be the other by 2017. 

They will need to move Shoe to the pen eventually, maybe next season.

The splitter has been mentioned as a pitch that too many thrown can lead to arm/elbow issues. 

 

Any money the next off-season should be towards a 2B upgrade (Zobrist?) and experienced set-up man (O'Day, please).

After hearing that Cespedes could climb as high as 6 years/$130-140 million, take a step back from expensive FAs for another season. 

Then with some $43 million coming off of the 2015 payroll by November 2016 (not including Aybar if needing to be re-signed), they can go after one of the elite (and not declining) FAs a year from now.

 

Perez is showing that he will eventually be a solid catcher for 80-110 games/season.     Bandy gets the first chance to be the other catcher.

Taylor Ward is a potential guy here by September 2017. 

 

On the minors front, the first and immediate change should be Alcantara moving to the pen with his stuff playing better there.

 

Finally, some sort of coaching staff change has to happen, at the least, a new hitting coach and 3B coach.

Baylor is a legend here, but some new blood is needed here.

DiSar has been a disaster in his 2 years at 3B.   That is plenty of time to get an idea of his skill set there.

Butcher is borderline.   Maybe it is time after 9 seasons to go in a different direction.   The pitching staff is in transition anyway.

 

But because Scioscia is loyal (sometimes to a fault, see Hatcher), it may be time to clean house and get a whole new coaching staff and new manager while they are in this transition period anyway.  

Edited September 22, 2015 by Angel Oracle

[Homebrewer]

The starting pitching will be better with Skaggs back,  Richards getting some strength and mojo back, Newcomb will be up at some point.

I'd much rather keep Gavy at 2b for a second season, than go back to Howie. Yeah he hit better for LA, but look at the hitters he has surrounding him! He is going to spend more and more time on the DL as he gets older, too.

 

Santiago and/or Shoe for  LF/Prospects/bench..

 

Then get rid of this coaching staff, start with some new energy and a new GM.

[Homebrewer]

Figuring out what to do with Weaver is going to be a problem.

I would be nice if he just retired. I love Weave and thank him for a lot of great games and memories...but he is hurting the pitching staff here. Maybe a move to the NL would be something for him to look at. He could extend his career if he wants to build up some numbers in his record book, but that's really the only reason for him to stay in baseball as a starting pitcher.

Sad but true, but it happens to everyone at some point.

Edited September 22, 2015 by Homebrewer

[Angel Oracle]

I'd give Weave through ST to see how the velocity and command are.

If the one is still low/mid 80s, and the other is dicey, it is likely time to go in a different direction.

[Homebrewer]

Cant wait that long with Weaver. A decision needs to be made early in the off season with him.

He has 5 and 10 and a no trade clause.

HE needs to let the team know what he will and will not do, so that it gives them clear options.

He's done as a starter in the AL, it's time to face the fact and do what needs to be done.