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Rebuild?


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Looking at the team headed into 2016, it seems evident that a considerable rebuild is necessary. The Angels can't expect to keep pace with Houston and Texas rolling out a rotation with Weaver, Wilson and Santiago/Shoe. They need at least two more arms in middle relief, and are still a miidle/top of the order LF and 2B away from having a functional offense.

Normally, I'd say we can try to fill some of these holes via free agency, but Arte has been insistent upon not exceeding the Luxury Tax line. What's more, the Angels don't have the prospect depth to ensure their future is safeguarded. Kubitza may or may not help at 3B/2B/LF.

Typically, I'd say it's time to consider starting from scratch, but it isn't like Weav, Wilson, Santiago or Shoe really have any trade value. The only players the Angels have that other teams might want are Trout, Calhoun, Aybar and Cron and you can't trade them.

So what's the answer?

I don't know, but I'd start with eating the money and cutting Weav and Wilson loose.

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The only option I see is a full out rebuild. If they continue to try and plug holes with old declining vets, they could become the Phillies of 2012-2015. They refused to cut their loses and paid the price.

 

The phillies finally accepted their fate and just started rebuild mode this year, so it's going to take them a while to become competitive again.

Edited by Poozy
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Rebuilds usually take 2-3 years to become competitive again. Do you really want to sacrifice the next 3 years of Trout, Calhoun, Heaney, etc. to do that. During the next three years you need to rebuild 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, LF, C, and maybe RF, plus replace 3-4 starters, and bullpen pieces, including closer and setup man. Seems like a sure way to insure failure for a long time.

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Rebuilds usually take 2-3 years to become competitive again. Do you really want to sacrifice the next 3 years of Trout, Calhoun, Heaney, etc. to do that. During the next three years you need to rebuild 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, LF, C, and maybe RF, plus replace 3-4 starters, and bullpen pieces, including closer and setup man. Seems like a sure way to insure failure for a long time.

 

Trout is the only piece that matters and 3 years from now he will only be 27 years old(still in his prime)

Edited by Poozy
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Rebuilds usually take 2-3 years to become competitive again. Do you really want to sacrifice the next 3 years of Trout, Calhoun, Heaney, etc. to do that. During the next three years you need to rebuild 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, LF, C, and maybe RF, plus replace 3-4 starters, and bullpen pieces, including closer and setup man. Seems like a sure way to insure failure for a long time.

So what then? You continue down the same path with declining players and a barren farm system and hope you catch lightning in a bottle one year?

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A two year rebuild definitely. We need to get Hamilton, Weaver, and Wilsons salaries off our payroll. I think our payroll right now is somewhere around $150. If we wait a couple years for those three payrolls to drop off, we can go into the offseason after the 2017 season around $60 Million in payroll.

Bring up guys like Newcomb, Kubitza, Cowart, and Yarbrough and see what we have in them over the next two years. Let the new GM come in and maybe work some deals or try to improve the team where needed without spending a lot.

At this point we will have plenty of financial flexibility and still have Trout for 3 years.

Edited by Chimi
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Looking at the team headed into 2016, it seems evident that a considerable rebuild is necessary. The Angels can't expect to keep pace with Houston and Texas rolling out a rotation with Weaver, Wilson and Santiago/Shoe. They need at least two more arms in middle relief, and are still a miidle/top of the order LF and 2B away from having a functional offense.

Normally, I'd say we can try to fill some of these holes via free agency, but Arte has been insistent upon not exceeding the Luxury Tax line. What's more, the Angels don't have the prospect depth to ensure their future is safeguarded. Kubitza may or may not help at 3B/2B/LF.

Typically, I'd say it's time to consider starting from scratch, but it isn't like Weav, Wilson, Santiago or Shoe really have any trade value. The only players the Angels have that other teams might want are Trout, Calhoun, Aybar and Cron and you can't trade them.

So what's the answer?

I don't know, but I'd start with eating the money and cutting Weav and Wilson loose.

 

If Arte knew about this rule beforehand, and he obviously did as he is the one who made up this rule, then he has completely screwed over the franchise and wasted hundreds of millions of his own dollars by misallocating nearly every free dollar the team had to pay Josh Hamilton to sit on the Rangers' disabled list. 

 

There were a multitude of other positions where that $125M could have made a more significant difference and given the Angels a better shot during their window to win. 

 

Rebuilds usually take 2-3 years to become competitive again. Do you really want to sacrifice the next 3 years of Trout, Calhoun, Heaney, etc. to do that. During the next three years you need to rebuild 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, LF, C, and maybe RF, plus replace 3-4 starters, and bullpen pieces, including closer and setup man. Seems like a sure way to insure failure for a long time.

This was the same thing everyone said 5 years ago, immediately after Morales was out with a season-ending injury.  At the time I strongly wanted to see the Angels pack it in and rebuild. By ~2013 we would have had most of our current core, plus a great deal more prospects, and huge amounts of money to fill in the gaps in free agency. 

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If Arte knew about this rule beforehand, and he obviously did as he is the one who made up this rule, then he has completely screwed over the franchise and wasted hundreds of millions of his own dollars by misallocating nearly every free dollar the team had to pay Josh Hamilton to sit on the Rangers' disabled list. 

 

There were a multitude of other positions where that $125M could have made a more significant difference and given the Angels a better shot during their window to win. 

 

This was the same thing everyone said 5 years ago, immediately after Morales was out with a season-ending injury.  At the time I strongly wanted to see the Angels pack it in and rebuild. By ~2013 we would have had most of our current core, plus a great deal more prospects, and huge amounts of money to fill in the gaps in free agency. 

 

 

 

5 years ago they had a cheap young core to build around thanks to their great farmsystem from previous years.

Edited by Poozy
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Outside of CJ Cron(who I don't think highly of at all), it's been 4 years since the angels developed an everyday player.

 

 

Wouldn't be a big deal if they had some players on the way, but there aren't any.

It could be another 3-6 years before they finally develop an everyday player.

Edited by Poozy
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So what then? You continue down the same path with declining players and a barren farm system and hope you catch lightning in a bottle one year?

 

No, I would rather see us add young cost controlled players a little at a time to the positions that need it the most.  A couple of young, cost controlled high OBP types would help a lot.  I wouldn't cut Wilson in his contract year.  I have no idea of what to do with Weaver, 5th starter for part of the year anyway.  I'd play the heck out of Cowart, Kubitza, and Bandy, just to see how far they can go.  Joyce goes, Featherstone spends time in AAA to start next year.  Resign Murphy, but DeJesus and Victorino go.  Find a young LF prospect to fill in behind Murphy, and a couple of bullpen arms.  If Gia can't start the season next year, sign or trade for another second baseman obviously.  That's a lot to get accomplished with very few resources.  Oh, and I wouldn't necessarily resign Iannetta, but he might be real cheap for one more year until Ward gets here for a look.  He might be so cheap that we can't afford to take a chance on him rebounding because we can cut him if need be in mid season.

 

We can't get anything going until we get a GM, we need to identify that person ASAP.  Ground can be made up fast because there is a good deal of parity in baseball right now.  Let's see what the incoming GM thinks he can do with this organization.

Edited by tomsred
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5 years ago they had a cheap young core to build around thanks to their great farmsystem from previous years.

 

 

Who? They totally should have rebuilt after 2009 or at least for sure after Morales' injury in 2010. Weaver and Kendrick were already arb eligible, and Aybar was two years in, but beyond them who did we have? Napoli was heading into his last year with the team, Wood had struggled at AAA again but was going to finally get his shot (to completely bomb). Santana was solid but unspectacular.

 

These are pieces other teams would want, but not enough to build around. We had Corbin and Skaggs in the minor leagues before we traded then for Haren later that year. We went out and filled holes with Matsui, Hunter, Callaspo, tried to with Kazmir and then doubled down with the Vernon Wells trade. We've been doubling down ever since.

 

I think coming off the ALCS loss, and then losing Vlad, FIggins, Texiera, Abreu (resigned), Lackey and Krod, it was understandable to want to go for it again, but it was really a natural time to rebuild. We have not had a solid core since then.

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Rebuilds usually take 2-3 years to become competitive again. Do you really want to sacrifice the next 3 years of Trout, Calhoun, Heaney, etc. to do that. During the next three years you need to rebuild 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, LF, C, and maybe RF, plus replace 3-4 starters, and bullpen pieces, including closer and setup man. Seems like a sure way to insure failure for a long time.

 

Yup.  All the while Trout will by eyeing his 10 year deal he will get where he knows they will spend.  And in 2-3 years, there is no certainty that the rebuild will work (do you really trust the Angels braintrust to do it right?).  We still won't have any top picks like KC, Pittsburgh, Houston, Tampa Bay, Chicago are benefitting/benefitted from.  KC has 8 years of top 10 picks that are finally coming to maturity.  Chicago had the last 5 years of top 10 picks.  Pittsburgh had 7 and 8 out of 9 before coming to maturity.  Houston had 5 years, including 3 years in a row of #1 picks.  And we all know about Tampa Bay's draft histories.  

 

You have a once in a generation player.  You have to go all in.  You can rebuild after he leaves.  

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Yup.  All the while Trout will by eyeing his 10 year deal he will get where he knows they will spend.  And in 2-3 years, there is no certainty that the rebuild will work (do you really trust the Angels braintrust to do it right?).  We still won't have any top picks like KC, Pittsburgh, Houston, Tampa Bay, Chicago are benefitting/benefitted from.  KC has 8 years of top 10 picks that are finally coming to maturity.  Chicago had the last 5 years of top 10 picks.  Pittsburgh had 7 and 8 out of 9 before coming to maturity.  Houston had 5 years, including 3 years in a row of #1 picks.  And we all know about Tampa Bay's draft histories.  

 

You have a once in a generation player.  You have to go all in.  You can rebuild after he leaves.  

So the Angels should run their entire organization based on weather or not Trout leaves in 5 years?

 

Why would they do that. They should run their org. with every intention that Trout will be apart of their current and future plans.

Edited by Poozy
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