The Official 'TANAKA' Thread

[nate]

I don't get the outrage about him taking the full time.

 

This is a huge move for him, it is not like he knows these teams as well as other MLB players.  Plus most players always take it down to the wire before signing.  That is the best negotiation technique there is.

[Angel Oracle]

Dipoto should just put this offer in front of Tanaka.

 

6/$102 + 2 club option years at $20 million.  

 

He was asking for $17 million a year, and that's what we will give him, so it's not a slap in the face.  On paper, looks like a 8/$142 million deal which satisfies the took the most money.  On the west coast.  CBT of either $17 or $17.75 million a year, forget how it's calculated.   And the $17 million a year is the same as what Weaver makes, for those that get butthurt about that.  

I'd also include an opt out for him after 4 seasons.   Gives the team AND Tanaka options to work with, while still paying him well and allowing he and his family to live in SoCal instead of a cold weather environment in the winter and rainy/humid summers.  

[wopphil]

Dipoto should just put this offer in front of Tanaka.

 

6/$102 + 2 club option years at $20 million.  

 

He was asking for $17 million a year, and that's what we will give him, so it's not a slap in the face.  On paper, looks like a 8/$142 million deal which satisfies the took the most money.  On the west coast.  CBT of either $17 or $17.75 million a year, forget how it's calculated.   And the $17 million a year is the same as what Weaver makes, for those that get butthurt about that.  

 

Certainly there are ways they could be creative in an effort to get a deal done.  It always amazes me how little creativity goes into some of these deals.  They could, for example, offer Tanaka a good base salary with huge incentives if he stays healthy/productive.  Offer him 6/108 with the ability to earn another 3-4 million per year with incentives.  If he is confident in his ability to remain healthy/productive, he might just take the offer. 

[gotbeer]

I don't get the outrage about him taking the full time.

 

This is a huge move for him, it is not like he knows these teams as well as other MLB players.  Plus most players always take it down to the wire before signing.  That is the best negotiation technique there is.

 

Yup.  And most of it was not his fault.  It was not his fault that MLB and NPB screwed Rakuten with the new posting process that took forever to agree on.  And it was not his fault that the owner wanted to keep him in Japan and tried their hardest to retain him.  

 

If it was still the old posting system, he would have been posted early November, and none of this unneccessary drama would have occurred.  

[Chimi]

Certainly there are ways they could be creative in an effort to get a deal done. It always amazes me how little creativity goes into some of these deals. They could, for example, offer Tanaka a good base salary with huge incentives if he stays healthy/productive. Offer him 6/108 with the ability to earn another 3-4 million per year with incentives. If he is confident in his ability to remain healthy/productive, he might just take the offer.

I'm sure teams would love to do incentive based contracts. Unfortunately you can't when other teams are just willing to guarantee the money from the get go. But I do agree with your contract idea and would love to see something like that happen.

[gotbeer]

I'd also include an opt out for him after 4 seasons.   Gives the team AND Tanaka options to work with, while still paying him well and allowing he and his family to live in SoCal instead of a cold weather environment in the winter and rainy/humid summers.  

 

If I give him an opt out after 4 seasons.  I would say backload the contract.  Say $14/16/17/18/19/20.  

[barshels]

I just waned to get this thread to over 40pages. Also I hope Tanaka is an Angel. Dude looks like the real deal.

[Stradling]

I'm sorry, but F Tanaka. This guy is milking this thing like crazy. Just choose a team and be done with it. Other players and baseball fans everywhere are ready to move on.

I just hope he doesn't sign with the Dodgers.

Ok Jim, you are going to be offered a job by many different people in Japan. You have spent very little time in Japan and but I want you to decide right now where you are going to live for the next five to six years. Give the guy a break, he is going to get his money no matter where he goes, he just might want to go to the place that is best for him and his family. This isn't some guy that is a free agent that knows this country really well. Also, it isn't his fault that other players are going to use his contract as leverage for their own contract.

[wopphil]

I'm sure teams would love to do incentive based contracts. Unfortunately you can't when other teams are just willing to guarantee the money from the get go. But I do agree with your contract idea and would love to see something like that happen.

The key is that the incentives, if reached, have to make the deal better than the other options. 

 

For sake of argument only, assume the following basic and overly simplistic scenario: All bidders offer him 6/120.  If he is to remain healthy and productive, the Angels value him at 6/132-138.  But they are willing to gamble on him only to the tune of a 6/108 guarantee.  They could offer him the following: 6/108, plus $1,000,000 for innings thresholds of 195, 200, 205, 210, and 215.  If Tanaka performs like a legit No. 2, he could very possibly get to 215 innings pitched (because pitchers who do well tend to throw more innings).  In that event, the Angels would benefit by receiving 215 quality innings, and Tanaka would benefit by being paid $23,000,000 annually - $3,000,000 more than the highest bidder.

 

Sure there is risk for all parties, but it isn't like Tanaka is going to starve if he blows out his arm and makes "only" $108 mil instead of $120 mil.  And if he does well, he stands to make far more than $120 mil.  Both sides take on some risk, with pros and cons.

 

I liken it to this situation (again, overly simplistic): An employer goes to its employee and says "I will guarantee you a salary of $100,000 per year, regardless of how many days you miss due to illness, and under no circumstances will you get a year-end bonus.  Alternatively, I will guarantee you a salary of $90,000, but I will give you a $20,000 year-end bonus if you miss three or fewer days due to illness."  Some people would take the guaranteed money, while others would roll the dice.  Maybe Tanaka would be willing to roll the dice (this becomes especially true if he (1) really wants to play on the West coast (2) for a team that is far more competitive than the D-Backs or Cubs.). 

[halodground]

Read the Sweetspot article on ESPN. Tanaka's stats relative to other NPB imports are pretty impressive.

[gotbeer]

Read the Sweetspot article on ESPN. Tanaka's stats relative to other NPB imports are pretty impressive.

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/43651/a-closer-look-at-masahiro-tanaka

[stormngt]

I'd also include an opt out for him after 4 seasons.   Gives the team AND Tanaka options to work with, while still paying him well and allowing he and his family to live in SoCal instead of a cold weather environment in the winter and rainy/humid summers.  

Can you give him an opt out option?  Wouldn't he be committed to the team for 6 years since he is essentially a rookie?

[gotbeer]

IMO, one thing that the article missed on was comparing of stats among the pitchers.  They only used their last year in NPB, instead of an average of the last 3 years.  IMO, the last 3 years is a more accurate comparison because players can have a fluke year.  See RA Dickey.  

 

If you look at the last 3 years of Diaske, Darvish, and Tanaka.  Left out Kuroda and Iwakuma because we all know they didn't come to the US as highly touted as those three.

 

Diaske

547.1 IP, 437 HIts, 125 BB, 146 ER, 44 HR, 553 K

1.027 WHIP, 2.40 ERA, 0.72 HR/9, 9.09 K/9

 

Darvish

616 IP, 432 Hits, 128 BB, 112 ER, 19 HR, 665 K

0.909 WHIP, 1.63 ERA, 0.27 HR/9, 9.71 K/9

 

Tanaka

614.1 IP, 499 Hits, 78 BB, 98 ER, 18 HR, 593 K

0.939 WHIP, 1.43 ERA, 0.26 HR/9, 8.69 K/9

 

So definitely had better stats than Matsuzaka.  But the WHIP and the K isn't there with Darvish.  Which is concerning since Darvish hasn't had great control at the MLB level.  

[gotbeer]

Can you give him an opt out option?  Wouldn't he be committed to the team for 6 years since he is essentially a rookie?

 

you can put an opt out to free agency in a contract.  a few npb players had that.  i believe iwakuma had that clause.  

[rick99gtp]

Just heard on the radio that Tanaka is down to the Cubs or the Yankees.  Also found this link (however credible):

 

http://www.pinstripealley.com/yankees-rumors-offseason-hot-stove/2014/1/20/5328176/masahiro-tanaka-rumors-yankees-cubs-negotiations

Edited January 21, 2014 by rick99gtp

[Angels_Make_Me_Drink]

As long as it isn't the Dodgers, I"m fine. 

[gotbeer]

you can put an opt out to free agency in a contract.  a few npb players had that.  i believe iwakuma had that clause.  

 

Actually looked at Cot's and it wasn't Iwakuma.  I know someone had it.  Just can't remember who.

[Tyler]

Go get him Arte.

[ettin]

Go get him Arte.

 

We can make the cap space by trading Aybar or Kendrick if need be.

[bloodbrother]

That sounds too creative for this FO

[KevinStockerIsGod]

Says my brother, Joel Sherman on MLB Network just reported Angels bid to Tanaka was for 110 million, but Cubs/Yanks/White Sox are up around 160-180.  Says Tanaka likes Angels, but Moreno won't go that high for SP.  Decision could come tonight.  Sherman says he thinks one of Chicago teams get him. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

IMO, one thing that the article missed on was comparing of stats among the pitchers.  They only used their last year in NPB, instead of an average of the last 3 years.  IMO, the last 3 years is a more accurate comparison because players can have a fluke year.  See RA Dickey.  

 

If you look at the last 3 years of Diaske, Darvish, and Tanaka.  Left out Kuroda and Iwakuma because we all know they didn't come to the US as highly touted as those three.

 

Diaske

547.1 IP, 437 HIts, 125 BB, 146 ER, 44 HR, 553 K

1.027 WHIP, 2.40 ERA, 0.72 HR/9, 9.09 K/9

 

Darvish

616 IP, 432 Hits, 128 BB, 112 ER, 19 HR, 665 K

0.909 WHIP, 1.63 ERA, 0.27 HR/9, 9.71 K/9

 

Tanaka

614.1 IP, 499 Hits, 78 BB, 98 ER, 18 HR, 593 K

0.939 WHIP, 1.43 ERA, 0.26 HR/9, 8.69 K/9

 

So definitely had better stats than Matsuzaka.  But the WHIP and the K isn't there with Darvish.  Which is concerning since Darvish hasn't had great control at the MLB level.  

 

Those numbers really don't support the theory that Darvish is better. Run environment is obviously important and not included in these stats but just looking at the K and BB rates is very telling. Yes Tanaka is not the strikeout pitcher Darvish is, but Yu was on pace for almost 300 K's for a large chunk of last year. He is arguably the preeminent strikeout pitcher in MLB right now, in part because Japanese pitchers often see their K rate increase in MLB. Tanaka will likely match that 8.5 K per 9 and his NPB numbers indicate that he will walk nearly half the batters  Matsusaka or Darvish have.

 

The only concern is how well his homerun rates translate, and it's tough to say based on the given info. That said, Tanaka challenged hitters in NPB and allowed similar homerun rates as Darvish. Can Yu actually be all that much better when the one stat he beats Tanaka in is the one we are least concerned with Tanaka's ability to translate to MLB?

[HaloCory22]

LOL 160-180? Fuuuuuuuuuuuuck that.

[Tyler]

Says my brother, Joel Sherman on MLB Network just reported Angels bid to Tanaka was for 110 million, but Cubs/Yanks/White Sox are up around 160-180.  Says Tanaka likes Angels, but Moreno won't go that high for SP.  Decision could come tonight.  Sherman says he thinks one of Chicago teams get him. 

 

That's respectable.

[tdawg87]

Says my brother, Joel Sherman on MLB Network just reported Angels bid to Tanaka was for 110 million, but Cubs/Yanks/White Sox are up around 160-180. Says Tanaka likes Angels, but Moreno won't go that high for SP. Decision could come tonight. Sherman says he thinks one of Chicago teams get him.

If true that's absurd. 180 million is just ridiculous and I would be happy Arte didn't offer that. I mean what would that be, 8/180? That is asinine.