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Angels discussing trade for Freese


nate

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pass on Freese unless it's for Shuck which I doubt.

 

I am surprised about the lack of enthusiasm for Kelly.  I'd take him in a heartbeat.  Granted, his peripherals aren't ideal, but there are a ton of guys who's peripherals don't always match there performance. 

 

Stats have a mean as well as a standard deviation.  Just because someone is 2 SD from the mean doesn't mean they can't sustain it.  There can be reasons why they buck trends and Kelly's stuff and approach allow a reasonable explanation as to why his peripherals don't match his success as well as why he can sustain such. 

 

Joe Blanton xFIP - 3.84

Jered Weaver xFIP - 4.31

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pass on Freese unless it's for Shuck which I doubt.

 

I am surprised about the lack of enthusiasm for Kelly.  I'd take him in a heartbeat.  Granted, his peripherals aren't ideal, but there are a ton of guys who's peripherals don't always match there performance. 

 

Stats have a mean as well as a standard deviation.  Just because someone is 2 SD from the mean doesn't mean they can't sustain it.  There can be reasons why they buck trends and Kelly's stuff and approach allow a reasonable explanation as to why his peripherals don't match his success as well as why he can sustain such. 

 

Joe Blanton xFIP - 3.84

Jered Weaver xFIP - 4.31

 

Precisely, people are looking at his periphs and not how his game plays.    Most sinkerball pitchers are guys that top out at the 87/91 range like Chien-Ming Wang, Derek Lowe, and at the very top end, Tim Hudson.   Kelley's best comp stuff wise is Brown -- you just don't find a lot of guys who have that heavy a pitch who also throw hard.  Brandon League throws a 95 MPH sinker but lacks the secondary pitches so he's been a career reliever.

 

There are a lot of sinkerball pitchers with nowhere near the ability that Kelly has that have carved out careers in MLB despite their weak k/9, BB/9 rates.   Hell Aaron freaking Cook managed a ten year run in Colorado where he managed a 106 ERA+ in that park with a K/9 of 3.8 Vs a BB/9 of 2.8

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again with Dan Haren?? Hubs, Dipoto traded him away once, and then a couple years later when he inherited him, he let him leave as a FA, and then watched him have a subpar season for another team. Do you really think he's going to be on Dipoto's listof pitchers to target this offseason?

haren ia done. I loved him here, liked him when he played in oak, az etc. But he's done as a front end pitcher, and maybe even as a mid rotation guy.
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In terms of bourjos, I realize he can be replaced and his value is down. But for the love of god I hope we don't swap him for freese. Freese wouldn't be a horrible pickup, but I'd take bourjos as our depth over freese as our 3B (although who knows, maybe he can repeat his 2012).

I am one hundred percent for aybar/kelly. If bourjos gets included and it sends freese over with him, meh, I can live with it.

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Talked to one of the advance scout and video guys today with the Angels.  He said Freese's back played a huge role in his 2013 stats.  Saw absolutely no load in his swing and he was basically throwing his arms out at the ball and not attacking the pitch or swinging through the ball because of a lack of motion or that it hurt too much. 

 

That said, everyone in the Angels organization, Dipoto, his staff, Servais and staff and even Baylor really like Freese and think he's worth acquiring.  No one has any information on his health though.  That much I guess has either not been shared by the Cards yet or hasn't been looked at yet by the Angels.  

 

I just wonder if there's anything specific they're waiting on.  I know the Cards backed out of a deadline deal with Dipoto and the Angels to this day still aren't sure what STL was waiting on and why they didn't want to pull the trigger right away.  I'm wondering if this is the same thing here.  They might already know which pieces are involved but the Cards are doing something secretive and quirky like last time.  Makes me wonder if they have some advanced metrics or scouting that they keep really close to the vest.  I wouldn't put it past them with their ability to judge talent. 

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@scotty

While I agree the cards are best in the biz at scouting, I don't know if that's whata holding it up. I think they're just having fun making us wait by the phone hoping they'll call on friday night. I can see them all huddled around the phone while dipoto ia on speaker, trying not to laugh loudly. 'Ok....geez, maybe we'll throw in wacha....ill call you right back.'

Click. They all start high fiving and downing beer bongs. Our front office nervously chain smokes but assumes we've fixed our problems. Then when they run into dipoto in the hallway after fourth period they say hello and act like the conversation never happened.

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Cards need a SS, D'backs need a Power hitter, Blue Jays need a 2B C and SP

Time to make trades.

The Angels Tradeable assets fit with these teams so that they can acquire a solution at 3b and SP from the Cardinals, they can get a replacement SS and a SP from the D'Backs, they can get a RP / CL plus depth from the Jays.

They can do all of this and save money to use on FA Starters.

They can do some of this and save money.

They need to shake things up. They need to allow 50 runs less from the pen, pitch less innings from the pen, allow 75 less runs from the starters, and score 100 more runs.

All of this is accomplishable.

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Forget about packaging Aybar with Bourjos in hopes of getting a starter from the Cards

 

Jeff Fletcher ‏@JeffFletcherOCR 15m

You can forget about Angels getting any of Cards top young starters, and therefore forget about Cards getting Aybar.

 

Jeff Fletcher ‏@JeffFletcherOCR 11m

Reason the Angels can't trade Aybar without getting a premium young starter is they have no one to replace him. Already have a 3B issue.

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Forget about packaging Aybar with Bourjos in hopes of getting a starter from the Cards

Jeff Fletcher ‏@JeffFletcherOCR 15m

You can forget about Angels getting any of Cards top young starters, and therefore forget about Cards getting Aybar.

Jeff Fletcher ‏@JeffFletcherOCR 11m

Reason the Angels can't trade Aybar without getting a premium young starter is they have no one to replace him. Already have a 3B issue.

That doesn't make sense. If you trade Aybar, Bourjos and whatever for Freese and Lynn or something, then the 3rd base problem is solved and you have Romine/Field take over at short. Romine's defensive value will cover the drop in offense. If they don't feel either would be a suitable replacement then pick up someone in free agency on a 1 year deal.

The Angels are either playing tough to get, or they are stupid. They need pitching. Losing Aybar would suck but it isn't like he is irreplaceable. I believe they need a solid starter more than a .300 OBP shortstop....

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If Jerry gives up more than Bourjos for Freese, he needs to be fired.  That would simply be laughable.

 

Now, if the trade is going to include the Angels getting back a relief arm or something like that, it makes a bit more sense.

 

Exactly where I'm at with the deal. If the Halos are getting Freese + a solid RP from the Cards, then I can get on board with Bourjos + some middle prospect. If it's the Halos trading Bourjos + a prospect for just Freese, then I'd be pretty upset with that

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That doesn't make sense. If you trade Aybar, Bourjos and whatever for Freese and Lynn or something, then the 3rd base problem is solved and you have Romine/Field take over at short. Romine's defensive value will cover the drop in offense. If they don't feel either would be a suitable replacement then pick up someone in free agency on a 1 year deal.

The Angels are either playing tough to get, or they are stupid. They need pitching. Losing Aybar would suck but it isn't like he is irreplaceable. I believe they need a solid starter more than a .300 OBP shortstop....

 

 

 

I honestly think it is the Cards who are playing tough to get or are stupid.  They think Freese is way more valuable than what he actually is.  What they need to understand is that Freese WS heroics means shit to the Angels.

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