Minasian's Gambit

[Warfarin]

4 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

The jury is still out because, as they say, the proof is in the pudding. All we know is that he's--at least--pretty good at drafting (e.g. Neto). But we haven't yet seen if his team is good at player development, simply because that takes at least several years.

That said, the signs aren't great with that big crop of international signings from a few years ago -  Vera, Ramirez, Placencia, etc. I can't remember if these guys were signed by Eppler or Minasian. But the next group were definitely Minasian: Guzman, then Rada and DeJesus, etc. So maybe we need to see how they develop as a test of his team. 

A lot of international picks, I believe, essentially commit fairly early, considerably before they are actually drafted.  I think the 2022 class is probably the first true class in which we can judge Minasian, and that class included Rada.  Time will tell now they will fare, but obviously Rada looks rather good so far.

[Angel Oracle]

1 hour ago, T.G. said:

The credit card analogy doesn’t work for me. I pay off my credit cards every month and I have no debt.

Same here for almost 5 years now

Only debt is the last few car pymts on a 2.8% loan.

[UndertheHalo]

If it’s all doomed to fail beyond this year then what’s the gambit?

[cals]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

First, let's compare:

A reasonable, if risky approach: Go into debt setting up a business that has a good chance of being profitable. The idea being, you borrow from the future but establish a means to not only pay it back, but eventually earn a profit.

Perry Minasian's approach this trade deadline: Go into debt on lottery tickets in the hope that you get lucky and, if so, you can get lucky again and again.

What he's done is (further) empty the farm and brought in only mediocre and/or short-term talent in return. The Angels didn't exactly have a nest of golden-egg prospects, but they had a dozen or so decent ones and traded a bunch of them away. And for what?

Perhaps the worst example is actually from about a month ago: Coleman Crow and Landon Marceaux for Eduardo Escobar. Now Crow and Marceaux aren't great prospects (Fangraphs had them at 40 and 35+ FV, respectively), but both have solid chances of becoming back-end starters and/or solid middle relievers, and Crow maybe a bit more.

Escobar has been nothing short of terrible: in 23 games for the Angels he's had a 60 wRC+ and produced -0.6 WAR, which is second only to Walsh (-0.7) in negative value. He's been worse than the players he was supposed to replace. In other words, Minasian basically threw away two decent prospects for a player that made the team worse.

Book-ending Minasian's dubious--and rather Dipotoan--trade season is today's trade, Jeremiah Jackson (40+ FV) for Dominic Leone. Jackson is a toolsy shortstop who impressed back in 2019 when he hit 23 in 65 Rookie ball games at 19. His rise was slowed by injuries and swing-and-miss issues and is currently in his second season in AA at age 23, hitting .248/.321/.447 -- hardly a sure thing but still with a bit of upside. In other words, not a guy you dream on (anymore), but someone you stash in the hopes that he surprises.

And who is Leone? A 31-year old reliever who has produced a 3.75 ERA and 1.8 WAR in 386.2 major league innings, though aside from two good years in 2017 and 2021 (1.5 and 0.9 WAR) most of that has been just above or below 0.0 WAR. In other words, he's a mediocre journeyman reliever. I would argue that the difference between Leone and half a dozen pitchers on most AAA teams is that when Leone got a chance, he didn't blow it, but he's essentially no better than those dozens of AAA pitchers. He's the 50-year old guy you work with that doesn't really improve the company, but is a known quantity of mediocrity.

All things told, Minasian has traded away six players in the Angelswin pre-season top 20 prospects--Crow and Marceaux, plus Edgar Quero, Ky Bush, Jake Madden, and Mason Albright--and received a who's who of journeyman hitters and pitchers in return. Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez are both above average, though both seem to have fallen a notch from their prime.

But more importantly, all of them are heading for free agency (assuming the Angels don't take Escobar's option). Meanwhile, the Angels are six solid prospects poorer than they were a month ago.

Was it worth it? Well, all of Minasian's trades were made to increase the slim possibility that the Angels can eek out a wildcard spot, thereby helping convince Shohei Ohtani to stay and then build a perennial contender around him. According to Fangraphs, the Angels chances have gone from 22.7% the morning after the Giolito-Lopez trade to 16.6% going into today's game (certainly lower now after today's loss). Meaning, these moves didn't move the dial, at least not in the right direction. To be fair, I'm not sure how much Fangraphs' algorithm takes into account roster moves; since then, the Angels are 2-3. So the returns so far aren't positive, if not (yet) disastrous.

Back to the initial point. Using a credit card is sometimes likened to borrowing from your own future. It makes fiscal sense when you are investing in something that can earn it back, and when the risk is balanced by potential reward, with a minimal chance of destitution. What are the Angels investing in? A slightly greater chance of making the playoffs this year - or at least the appearance of a better chance. But at what cost? And what do they expect to do next year, with or without Ohtani? With Ohtani, payroll will be higher than ever; presumably Arte would be willing to spend even more, but considering the gaps on the roster, he's going to have to get into Yankees-Dodgers payroll territory, if not quite the stratospheric heights the Mets reached this year. Is he willing to do that?

Meanwhile, the biggest franchise problem remains the biggest franchise problem: a farm system almost totally devoid of talent. There is a bit here and there, but there's always been a bit here and there. And we have to give credit for drafting Zack Neto and trading for Logan O'Hoppe, and there's even room to be mildly optimistic on Chase Silseth, Sam Bachman, and Ben Joyce -- all Minasian draftees. But with recent trades and graduations, there are literally no prospects--aside, perhaps, from recent 1st rounder Nolan Schanuel--who look to be probable major league regulars or better. A few sorta upside guys and a few lottery picks, but you can probably count the "maybe, if you squint just right wearing your rosiest tinted glasses" guys on two hands. 

The issue is not the risk itself. it is that it is a risk that A) Doesn't move the dial on playoff probabilities that much (if at all), and B) Worsens an already weakened farm system to anemic level. It would be one thing if the latter factor brought in significant talent, that is if the risk was balanced with a significantly better possibility of reward. But what I see, at least, is that all Minasian really did was plug mediocre holes with new mediocre players, and lost a half a dozen prospect in the process. It was desperation move after desperation move, clear evidence that Minasian is throwing a Hail Mary -- probably on his career, but certainly on the year and the foreseeable future of the franchise. And we're not talking a Tom Brady Hail Mary to get into field goal position, down by two points. We're talking a Jimmy Garappolo Hail Mary against the best cornerbacks in the league, down by eight, hoping for a touchdown and two-point conversion to get into over-time.

I hope to be proven wrong, but we may someday look back on this last week as the point when the franchise committed itself to further years of mediocrity. In other words, as of this writing, there is a very good chance that the "Dark Age" we've been in for at least the last seven or eight years, is far from over, and Perry Minasian's trades over the last month have moved the needle on that dial, and not for the better. Gone are the days when we could dream of a return to glory as being N+1 or N+2 years; we're now in the rather ominous waters of...N+X. Who knows when or how this franchise will ever turn around, but the signs aren't good.

Not trying to be a dick, but if you have a job you must be the worst employee.  Like you totally could be the best by far, but you have to be the worst.

[TheLordofOuts]

All I know is that if these moves mean that Ohtani stays in Anaheim long term, then it was a good gamble regardless of outcome.  But, I look at what the Orioles and the Rays have done, and I sort of wish that the Angels would go back to that approach. It would probably take a new owner and about 2-3 seasons to revert back to the small market mentality. 

[Taylor]

[fan_since79]

Speaking of Fletcher, is he history? Seriously, where did the guy go? I might be in the minority here but I think we could use him. An upgrade over Escobar, imo.

[UndertheHalo]

25 minutes ago, fan_since79 said:

Speaking of Fletcher, is he history? Seriously, where did the guy go? I might be in the minority here but I think we could use him. An upgrade over Escobar, imo.

He’s at SLC

[mmc]

33 minutes ago, fan_since79 said:

Speaking of Fletcher, is he history? Seriously, where did the guy go? I might be in the minority here but I think we could use him. An upgrade over Escobar, imo.

How many times does Fletcher need to prove he is not a useful player before you believe it?

[Second Base]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yup, another angle at what I'm getting at. We're never going to have the perennial contending team that we almost had 15 years ago, unless we go through that difficult period. It is like losing weight: you just have to buckle down and do without pizza and ice cream for a long period of time, and then when you get to your target weight, take a more moderate point going forward. The sad thing is, it didn't have to be this way. Really all they would have had to do is go through a bumpy 2-3 years in 2010-12ish, disavowed Big Splashes and focused on rebuilding. But Arte couldn't handle that and after 2010 spun out with binge"after binge. Arte's denial and megalomania led to Wells then Pujols, Hamilton, Upton, etc. Fast forward and now we're one of the bottom third worst franchises in baseball, regardless of the presence of two players.

With Eppler there was hope that they could retool and rebuild at the same time. Didn't work. With Minasian, the hope re-emerged. Doesn't look like he's doing that. 

 

Even if the Angels make the playoffs.... Shoot even if they win the World Series.... They're going to have to enter that rebuilding period soon.

[ukyah]

2 hours ago, Warfarin said:

JMO, but I think Perry is far more adept at developing talent than any of his predecessors.  Time will tell, but I think even though our farm ranking is "poor," more of these guys will turn into good players than would have under Depot or Eppler.  I think Perry has assembled a strong player development team.  

he's also promoted a shitload who are basically sticking on the team, even if they're playing the shuttle game due to usage and injuries. he's going to do more promoting too with schanuel. i don't really care what the farm system looks like if most of your first rounders are playing on the team and others are contributing. the angels problem is injuries.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

Prospects are tradeable Commodities! Not all, will play here. Not all, will even make it off your TOP 30 Prospect List...

[Warfarin]

6 hours ago, ukyah said:

he's also promoted a shitload who are basically sticking on the team, even if they're playing the shuttle game due to usage and injuries. he's going to do more promoting too with schanuel. i don't really care what the farm system looks like if most of your first rounders are playing on the team and others are contributing. the angels problem is injuries.

Yep.  Already he has essentially plugged up really difficult to fill spots (SS, C) with his draft picks and trades.  

I have referenced it before, but the Braves have had a fairly low farm system ranking for years now, but they have likewise aggressively promoted Strider, Harris, etc.  Minasian seems to take a similar approach as his former boss - promote players rapidly when you feel they are ready.  The byproduct of that is your "system ranking" is poor, but who cares?  If you are promoting young talent that is able to stick to the team, then great, that's success.

Neto, O'Hoppe, Moniak, Silseth - we are seeing guys drafted/traded for, promoted, and becoming solid contributors already.  Joyce and Mederos might soon join that list, given how aggressive the FO has been with their promotions as well.

Ohtani's future obviously will have a huge impact on us, but I think Minasian is a really good GM.  More than half of his signings/trades seemed to have panned out, and his player development process seems really good.  

[Dtwncbad]

We have heard complaints for years and years that the Angel prospects are garbage compared to other clubs.

Now the team moves a few to shore up the team to give the team a chance to reach the postseason and people are freaking out over losing some of these mostly marginal pieces?

The Angels did not “push in all their chips” or “go all in” here.

They held on to lots of players that will be at the core of this team for the next many years.

The fact is this team right now is actually in the race.  Angel baseball is interesting and relevant every day now.

That by itself is good news for the fans.  And it is important for the clubhouse culture if the team does have interest in resigning Ohtani, attracting other key free agents, or motivating other key players on the roster to sign extensions.

The team will win or it won’t.  And Ohtani will sign here or he won’t.  But the moves at the 2023 deadline are not going to be overwhelming painful and CAUSE the team to suffer.

If the team suffers in the future it will be because overall they didn’t draft well, and overall they didn’t sign the right free agents.

Bottom line is you can’t say the Angels stink at drafting and developing players and then complain that they traded away the wrong players drafted that they couldn’t develop.

So you would have to believe the team has vastly improved at drafting and developing to be bothered by moving some bodies.  If that is the case, then the system will be able to survive moving some bodies.

With where the franchise is today considering the last too many years, I will take the upside of possibly winning this year, including more interest in every game, the positive culture to try to keep Ohtani, attract free agents, and motivate other key players to be open to extend. . . in exchange for a couple of prospects.

 

[Inside Pitch]

I haven't read this thread all the way through, forgive me if I'm just repeating what others have said..

 

I'm a big picture/long game type.  The Angels have been in this owner induced situation where they have been trying to play the long game while also trying to "win now" meaning they haven't done a good job of accomplishing either.

There are a lot of ways to look at what they are doing and just as many conclusions people can come to but the one thing that I think everyone can agree on is that this deadline has been a departure from anything we have seen since the 2014 season when the farm was in even worse shape and the only infusion of young talent were Cron and Trout -- possibly Skaggs.

How much of this change is about trying to prove things to Ohtani (or the clubhouse in general), that the things have changed... That Arte is willing to do what it takes moving forward?  No clue.  But, I'd like to believe that it's a signal Minasian and company have faith in the guys they do have on board for the next few seasons. Feel free to decide for yourselves who those guys may be.

There is no question that all of this could turn out badly. but the Ohtani situation always made that a possibility. The only real difference is that instead of holding steady and hoping for the best they have seemingly said F-it and are throwing everything they can at it.

I've never doubted they were trying, and while much of what they have done goes against my better judgement... as a fan, it's been nice to see them take a bit of a leap of faith and make an aggressive effort for a change -- the end result may be the same but the path is different.

I just want to see them keep this energy beyond this trade deadline.  If they do all this then go back to business as usual, then nothing has changed and this perpetual mediocrity will remain the status quo.

If nothing else, Perry's got some nads.

[Angelsfan1984]

9 hours ago, Warfarin said:

JMO, but I think Perry is far more adept at developing talent than any of his predecessors.  Time will tell, but I think even though our farm ranking is "poor," more of these guys will turn into good players than would have under Depot or Eppler.  I think Perry has assembled a strong player development team.  

I agree. Projection is one thing, but development to me is far more important. Getting guys to actually reach certain levels is the key. That’s likely why minasian is trading eppler pieces.

[T.G.]

13 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Back to the initial point. Using a credit card is sometimes likened to borrowing from your own future. It makes fiscal sense when you are investing in something that can earn it back, and when the risk is balanced by potential reward, with a minimal chance of destitution.

It doesn't make fiscal sense to use credit cards for any kind of investing.  Minasian isn't "borrowing" from his own future.  He's using his assets to achieve his goal.

11 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Not sure what your point is - the analogy wasn't meant to illustrate your financial habits. But OK: you're smarter than the Angels. Good for you.

The bottom line is Minasian is using his assets wisely, IMO.  He's using them to pursue the postseason.  Good for him. Good for us fans.

[DMVol]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

.....while much of what they have done goes against my better judgement... as a fan, it's been nice to see them take a bit of a leap of faith and make an aggressive effort for a change -- the end result may be the same but the path is different.

Pretty much sums things up for me.....one voice in the back of my head says "this isn't the way to go" but another says "they are at least being aggressive"....

[ten ocho recon scout]

9 hours ago, Second Base said:

Even if the Angels make the playoffs.... Shoot even if they win the World Series.... They're going to have to enter that rebuilding period soon.

This might be true. 

But it's already started, more or less.

We need a 1B (sigh, Walsh). But hopefully that shan.... sham?... shamwow guy works out.

2B, but Drury is here for a bit and Paris is coming up. Neto is young at SS. We need a 3B, unless of course Rendon suddenly plays.

Trout is here for life. We need 2 corner OFs, depending on how Ward recovers and Adell. (Adell, sigh).

Ohoppe at C.

Detmers, Sandoval (2 more years?), Canning, Silseth(?) And Anderson are all here for awhile.

You could improve on a lot of those guys. But I don't think it's a huge rebuild. 

[Angels in 2030]

10 hours ago, TheLordofOuts said:

All I know is that if these moves mean that Ohtani stays in Anaheim long term, then it was a good gamble regardless of outcome.  But, I look at what the Orioles and the Rays have done, and I sort of wish that the Angels would go back to that approach. It would probably take a new owner and about 2-3 seasons to revert back to the small market mentality. 

As much as many Angels don't want to think about it, there's a fairly strong argument to be made that the best thing for the organization's success the next 6-10 years is for Ohtani to leave via FA.  In the first 1-3 years, maybe less so.  Although that $50-60M could be put to good use with a good GM.  But after a few years, that contract could be a killer.  He's simply not going to be able to sustain the elite SP / hitting production to support that salary year after year.  Not to mention an injury, which is more likely as he gets older and continues to play both sides. 

But if you care more about the name brand of Ohtani being an Angel for life and all, then all of those issues do not matter.  The most likely scenario that plays out with this outcomes is you have Trout+ 2.0 -- amazing top shelf HOF as an Angel for life.....without on-field / playoff success.

[ten ocho recon scout]

I'm probably just daydreaming, but part of me thinks there has to at least be some indication that Ohtani "wants" to stay.

Not "I'm staying" as much as "I'm totally good with staying, but cmon, make me think it's the right choice".

The public and the media have heard nothing, but I'd think there's quiet talking going on in the team to make Moreno think it's doable. Can't see why he decided against selling in the first place unless there was some communication between both sides.

[Jay]

I'm not a fan of trading away the farm for a bunch of mediocre rentals. Years of control in exchange for a couple of months, only to impress Ohtani.

I want to see the Angels win but I don't give two shits about Ohtani being an Angel for life. Not for a half-billion dollars.

 

[Angelsjunky]

2 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

I haven't read this thread all the way through, forgive me if I'm just repeating what others have said..

 

I'm a big picture/long game type.  The Angels have been in this owner induced situation where they have been trying to play the long game while also trying to "win now" meaning they haven't done a good job of accomplishing either.

There are a lot of ways to look at what they are doing and just as many conclusions people can come to but the one thing that I think everyone can agree on is that this deadline has been a departure from anything we have seen since the 2014 season when the farm was in even worse shape and the only infusion of young talent were Cron and Trout -- possibly Skaggs.

How much of this change is about trying to prove things to Ohtani (or the clubhouse in general), that the things have changed... That Arte is willing to do what it takes moving forward?  No clue.  But, I'd like to believe that it's a signal Minasian and company have faith in the guys they do have on board for the next few seasons. Feel free to decide for yourselves who those guys may be.

There is no question that all of this could turn out badly. but the Ohtani situation always made that a possibility. The only real difference is that instead of holding steady and hoping for the best they have seemingly said F-it and are throwing everything they can at it.

I've never doubted they were trying, and while much of what they have done goes against my better judgement... as a fan, it's been nice to see them take a bit of a leap of faith and make an aggressive effort for a change -- the end result may be the same but the path is different.

I just want to see them keep this energy beyond this trade deadline.  If they do all this then go back to business as usual, then nothing has changed and this perpetual mediocrity will remain the status quo.

If nothing else, Perry's got some nads.

You illustrate the conflicting feelings I have: On one hand, I don't like the overall picture--as my post illustrates. On the other hand, at least it is something and makes the stretch run interesting. I just don't see the overall moves as likely making much of a difference, and the overall cost doesn't feel worth it for two-month rentals.

The point being, even if you like what Minasian is doing, it is a gambit. There's a significant chance that come December, Ohtani has left and we're six prospects short. That would be rather bad and won't feel like it was worth it.

Edited August 2, 2023 by Angelsjunky

[mmc]

9 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

That would be rather bad and won't feel like it was worth it.

This right here is your problem.  It WAS worth a shot even if it doesn’t work, they owe it to the guys in the clubhouse

[Angelsjunky]

7 minutes ago, mmc said:

This right here is your problem.  It WAS worth a shot even if it doesn’t work, they owe it to the guys in the clubhouse

So let me get this straight. My "problem" is that I care about the long-term quality of the team? That I'm not ignoring everything else except for the guys in the clubhouse and what makes them happy?

That is an important factor, but it is over-simplistic to only focus on that. A good GM balances a range of factors in a very complex environment.