Minasian's Gambit

[mmc]

6 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

So let me get this straight. My "problem" is that I care about the long-term quality of the team? That I'm not ignoring everything else except for the guys in the clubhouse and what makes them happy?

That is an important factor, but it is over-simplistic to only focus on that. A good GM balances a range of factors in a very complex environment. 

Seems like that’s what he did

[Angelsjunky]

9 minutes ago, mmc said:

Seems like that’s what he did

That may be true. Again, not faulting him trying. 

[mmc]

1 minute ago, Angelsjunky said:

That may be true. Again, not faulting him trying. 

If even you know it made sense for him to try then you should see why this post ultimately reads like eloquently written Twitter whining

[Angelsjunky]

4 minutes ago, mmc said:

If even you know it made sense for him to try then you should see why this post ultimately reads like eloquently written Twitter whining

LOL. I'm always baffled by how irate people get with differing views. I know your generation struggles with this, but it is OK to have different opinions on things. We're just talking baseball - lighten up and have fun.

[mmc]

6 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

LOL. I'm always baffled by how irate people get with differing views. I know your generation struggles with this, but it is OK to have different opinions on things. We're just talking baseball - lighten up and have fun.

I'm not irate in the slightest, just saying that I think a long doom-and-gloom post where you're clearly highlighting things to make the trades seem as risky as possible, over a risk you acknowledge was worth talking, before the results of any of these moves are known is needlessly pedantic.

And I'm someone who wanted this team to do a fire sale at the deadline so I actually more agree with your premise than what the team actually did.

[Angelsjunky]

5 minutes ago, mmc said:

I'm not irate in the slightest, just saying that I think a long doom-and-gloom post where you're clearly highlighting things to make the trades seem as risky as possible, over a risk you acknowledge was worth talking, before the results of any of these moves are known is needlessly pedantic.

And I'm someone who wanted this team to do a fire sale at the deadline so I actually more agree with your premise than what the team actually did.

Again, we talk baseball - and that includes speculating on the future. I'm not attached to any particular outcome and hope that my concerns are unfounded. But raising concerns isn't inherently "doom-and-gloom," and considering these issues isn't "needlessly pedantic" (except insofar as talking about baseball at all, beyond screaming at the telly, is pedantic). I tend to take a wide range of perspectives and considerations, and don't overly focus on the negative or, on the other hand, be homeristic and rosy-tinged. I like to consider the possibilities from different angles. 

But you're right: We don't know how things will turn out. That doesn't invalidate my concerns, however. 

 

[Taylor]

54 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

LOL. I'm always baffled by how irate people get with differing views. I know your generation struggles with this, but it is OK to have different opinions on things. We're just talking baseball - lighten up and have fun.

LOL. Every generation struggles with differing views.

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 hour ago, mmc said:

And I'm someone who wanted this team to do a fire sale at the deadline so I actually more agree with your premise than what the team actually did.

That's pretty much me. I've been "trade Ohtani" for the past year. And in trading him, flip a few more pieces.

But we didn't. And screw it... water under the bridge.

Since we didn't do that, have to at least try now.

[T.G.]

For me, the minor league rankings are somewhat meaningless.  I see guys like Neto, Bachman, Silseth and O'Hoppe making an impact and that's what matters most.  The Angels continue to promote guys who are having a positive impact. Sure, not all of them pan out - but enough do to make me not care about rankings.

Maybe I'm missing something.

I'm stoked about the work Minasian has done and continues to do.  He seems to have a plan and a process and it's moving the team in the right direction.  I know we live in a "what have you done for me lately" world - and so it could all go poof tomorrow, but I'm enjoying the journey right now.

[Dtwncbad]

59 minutes ago, Taylor said:

LOL. Every generation struggles with differing views.

Like deflection?

[Dtwncbad]

25 minutes ago, T.G. said:

I know we live in a "what have you done for me lately" world

Actually I think lots of fans do not live in this world.

They live in “I cannot see what you have done for me lately because I am scarred by the tons of shit that happened before that.”

[ELEVEN]

Really excited about that Giolito trade rn

[Inside Pitch]

56 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Actually I think lots of fans do not live in this world.

They live in “I cannot see what you have done for me lately because I am scarred by the tons of shit that happened before that.”

Bingo

[Taylor]

1 hour ago, Dtwncbad said:

Like deflection?

Yes

[Torridd]

17 hours ago, Revad said:

I get it, an expensive gambit.  Desperation enough to acquire actual major league players to fill injury holes.  A more moderate approach would have made sense, maybe trading from the pitching staff instead of all that depth.  It’s the last season with Ohtani before his FA so some extraordinary effort  is appropriate and I’ll take it.  I like our chances to make the playoffs and think, assuming Trout, Rendon and Drury can return to health and be productive, we could make some noise especially in a short series.

 

17 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I get it, and I don't disagree that he "had to go for it." I just don't like the overall picture, which is as I illustrated in the first couple paragraphs: sending the franchise into deeper debt on lottery picks. As a rule, I'm more of the Bill Stoneman mold: hold onto your prospects, even unreasonably. That approach notoriously halted a Kendrick/Wood (and parts) for Miggy Cabrera trade which looked awful a year or two later, but it also built up substantial farm depth that gave the Angels their best run in franchise history.

I'm not on the team, but I'm also not a "win now, worry about tomorrow" fan. To me that is short-sighted and just leads to perennial disappointment. To me the farm is sacred, and the most important aspect of a franchise. Until the Angels build a good and vibrant farm system, we'll just get more of the same: year after year of 70-85 win seasons.

I don't know anything about baseball management but is it possible that Perry discussed with Nevin that "all-in" idea? That is, did he ask Nevin what he thought of the makeup of his players. Are they gamers? I would hope he would get an honest answer from him and that would be the catalyst for his actions. They're winning more than losing and treading water despite the injuries. I think Perry felt obligated to do his part. No one's giving up, it seems. 

[Torridd]

16 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yup, another angle at what I'm getting at. We're never going to have the perennial contending team that we almost had 15 years ago, unless we go through that difficult period. It is like losing weight: you just have to buckle down and do without pizza and ice cream for a long period of time, and then when you get to your target weight, take a more moderate point going forward. The sad thing is, it didn't have to be this way. Really all they would have had to do is go through a bumpy 2-3 years in 2010-12ish, disavowed Big Splashes and focused on rebuilding. But Arte couldn't handle that and after 2010 spun out with binge"after binge. Arte's denial and megalomania led to Wells then Pujols, Hamilton, Upton, etc. Fast forward and now we're one of the bottom third worst franchises in baseball, regardless of the presence of two players.

With Eppler there was hope that they could retool and rebuild at the same time. Didn't work. With Minasian, the hope re-emerged. Doesn't look like he's doing that. 

 

Is a difficult period necessary to be perennially successful?

[Torridd]

15 hours ago, Taylor said:

Great series! I think I would have enjoyed it even if I didn't play.

[Torridd]

4 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

So let me get this straight. My "problem" is that I care about the long-term quality of the team? That I'm not ignoring everything else except for the guys in the clubhouse and what makes them happy?

That is an important factor, but it is over-simplistic to only focus on that. A good GM balances a range of factors in a very complex environment. 

I understand your point but other than Quero, I don't think we've lost much that can't be replaced.

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Torridd said:

Is a difficult period necessary to be perennially successful?

Not necessarily, imo. Or rather, it depends on other factors: namely, how good the farm is. The difficulty is ameliorated by having a constant pipeline of talent coming up. The smartest franchises still seem to go in cycles: check out the Braves, Cardinals, etc. The Dodgers and Yankees buffer the down-cycles with lots of spending, but they also usually have great farm systems (especially the Dodgers). 

The franchise's current state of affairs - and basic stupidity of an endless string of bloated payroll and a weak farm - goes back to 2010, when the team disappointed Arte and he got them rolling a cycle of albatross contracts. If he had, instead, accepted that the 2004-09 era was over, we might have had a down cycle of a few years while the "new Angels" were rebuilt around Trout. No Wells, Pujols, Hamilton, CJ Wilson--or later, Justin Upton and Anthony Rendon. But instead, you keep Patrick Corbin and Tyler Skaggs and Randal Grichuk, and you keep fueling the farm system.

That's all water under the bridge now, but the problem is that the Angels keep going down that path because they always have a reason to avoid a down cycle. They had another opportunity in 2015-17ish, but then it was the Trout Window. In the last couple years, it has been the Ohtani Window.

All of which means that if Ohtani does leave, there will be another chance. But I doubt that Arte will take it, if only because of the fading glory of Mike Trout (and Arte's own enormous ego).

My biggest worry is that Ohtani leaves and Arte over-compensates and pushes more albatross contracts. Thankfully, after Ohtani, there aren't any guys who are likely to get truly mega-contracts, but there are a bunch of guys--especially pitchers--who should get nine figures: Lucas Giolito, Aaron Nola, Blake SneIl, Julio Urias, and Clayton Kershaw could all get big contracts (yes, someone is going to offer the 36-year old Kershaw something like 4/$120M). And of course there's Cody Bellinger and his resurgence this year. 

So yeah, I'm worried that instead of Ohtani for the next decade, we get Bellinger/Giolito. Maybe that's OK, I don't know. 

[HBAngel13]

I can’t foresee anyone we gave up making a material difference for future teams. At some point you have to take your shot and this season is likely the best chance they will have for awhile if Ohtani walks. 

No Ohtani in 2024 means you can either a) use the $30m saved to try and patch the roster via free agency and compete or, b) sell off guys like Estevez, Drury and Ward (?) to help restock the farm and try to do a soft reboot with an eye toward 2025/2026.  As someone mentioned above, NOT getting Ohtani may be the best thing

We have a good young nucleus with Neto, O’Hoppe, Moniak, Sandoval, Detmers and hopefully Schanuel/Adell. All these guys have 3-5 yrs of control. Plus we have Trout for better or worse.  Rendon is dead money but only for three more years and is likely off the roster by 2025 if he continues as he has.

Perry needs to continue drafting well, bolster player development and refrain from any more long-term dead money deals.  However with so many cost controlled young players, I would like to see him use the payroll availability over the next two years to “buy” prospects by taking on other teams short term dead money.

A complicated situation for sure, but I don’t think it’s armeggdon.  When we were in this situation with Dipoto we didn’t have the young MLB talent like we do now  

 

 

[Revad]

38 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

So yeah, I'm worried that instead of Ohtani for the next decade, we get Bellinger/Giolito. Maybe that's OK, I don't know. 

Unless Detmers or Sandoval turn into an ace, if Ohtani leaves going to need one and that’s going to cost.  Arte will need a big signing if Ohtani goes but so will the rotation.  Just let Minasain make the call.

[Angelsjunky]

Our best prospect for a guy with a 12.00 ERA through two starts. Nice.

[Revad]

17 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Our best prospect for a guy with a 12.00 ERA through two starts. Nice.

It’s ok, he’s a local guy.

[Duren, Duren]

I have my doubts about spending big money on Giolito. Sure, he had a relatively hot month before the trade, and that probably influenced Perry's thinking. But he hasn't had the consistent sharpness and velocity of his best seasons. Other than his experience I  don't see him as a significant upgrade going into next year.

Probably will be Anderson like. Good and bad, but not steady. Savvy can get you through against average and weak teams some times, but good teams are usually disciplined and make you pay for mistakes. 

If it was a short term, reasonable contract then he could fill a role as a mentor and third/fourth starter, depending on other roster moves. I would rather see Detmers, Sandoval and Canning grow with more responsibility. Assuming of course, no Ohtani. Not to mention the younger guys like Silseth, Joyce, Bachman and maybe a couple of the other guys in the bullpen  compete for starting roles. Plus whoever else comes on board. 

Giolito isn't a big bucks top of the rotation type guy anymore. But he still has a couple of months to audition for the baseball world and maybe he does reinvent himself.  Being smart and self aware is a big step towards improvement. 

[Revad]

Canning is in uncharted innings territory, so I can see needing another #3/4 guy, but we needed an ace to pair with Ohtani.  I think Minasian is hoping as players come back we catch fire.