Minasian's Gambit

[Angelsjunky]

First, let's compare:

A reasonable, if risky approach: Go into debt setting up a business that has a good chance of being profitable. The idea being, you borrow from the future but establish a means to not only pay it back, but eventually earn a profit.

Perry Minasian's approach this trade deadline: Go into debt on lottery tickets in the hope that you get lucky and, if so, you can get lucky again and again.

What he's done is (further) empty the farm and brought in only mediocre and/or short-term talent in return. The Angels didn't exactly have a nest of golden-egg prospects, but they had a dozen or so decent ones and traded a bunch of them away. And for what?

Perhaps the worst example is actually from about a month ago: Coleman Crow and Landon Marceaux for Eduardo Escobar. Now Crow and Marceaux aren't great prospects (Fangraphs had them at 40 and 35+ FV, respectively), but both have solid chances of becoming back-end starters and/or solid middle relievers, and Crow maybe a bit more.

Escobar has been nothing short of terrible: in 23 games for the Angels he's had a 60 wRC+ and produced -0.6 WAR, which is second only to Walsh (-0.7) in negative value. He's been worse than the players he was supposed to replace. In other words, Minasian basically threw away two decent prospects for a player that made the team worse.

Book-ending Minasian's dubious--and rather Dipotoan--trade season is today's trade, Jeremiah Jackson (40+ FV) for Dominic Leone. Jackson is a toolsy shortstop who impressed back in 2019 when he hit 23 in 65 Rookie ball games at 19. His rise was slowed by injuries and swing-and-miss issues and is currently in his second season in AA at age 23, hitting .248/.321/.447 -- hardly a sure thing but still with a bit of upside. In other words, not a guy you dream on (anymore), but someone you stash in the hopes that he surprises.

And who is Leone? A 31-year old reliever who has produced a 3.75 ERA and 1.8 WAR in 386.2 major league innings, though aside from two good years in 2017 and 2021 (1.5 and 0.9 WAR) most of that has been just above or below 0.0 WAR. In other words, he's a mediocre journeyman reliever. I would argue that the difference between Leone and half a dozen pitchers on most AAA teams is that when Leone got a chance, he didn't blow it, but he's essentially no better than those dozens of AAA pitchers. He's the 50-year old guy you work with that doesn't really improve the company, but is a known quantity of mediocrity.

All things told, Minasian has traded away six players in the Angelswin pre-season top 20 prospects--Crow and Marceaux, plus Edgar Quero, Ky Bush, Jake Madden, and Mason Albright--and received a who's who of journeyman hitters and pitchers in return. Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez are both above average, though both seem to have fallen a notch from their prime.

But more importantly, all of them are heading for free agency (assuming the Angels don't take Escobar's option). Meanwhile, the Angels are six solid prospects poorer than they were a month ago.

Was it worth it? Well, all of Minasian's trades were made to increase the slim possibility that the Angels can eek out a wildcard spot, thereby helping convince Shohei Ohtani to stay and then build a perennial contender around him. According to Fangraphs, the Angels chances have gone from 22.7% the morning after the Giolito-Lopez trade to 16.6% going into today's game (certainly lower now after today's loss). Meaning, these moves didn't move the dial, at least not in the right direction. To be fair, I'm not sure how much Fangraphs' algorithm takes into account roster moves; since then, the Angels are 2-3. So the returns so far aren't positive, if not (yet) disastrous.

Back to the initial point. Using a credit card is sometimes likened to borrowing from your own future. It makes fiscal sense when you are investing in something that can earn it back, and when the risk is balanced by potential reward, with a minimal chance of destitution. What are the Angels investing in? A slightly greater chance of making the playoffs this year - or at least the appearance of a better chance. But at what cost? And what do they expect to do next year, with or without Ohtani? With Ohtani, payroll will be higher than ever; presumably Arte would be willing to spend even more, but considering the gaps on the roster, he's going to have to get into Yankees-Dodgers payroll territory, if not quite the stratospheric heights the Mets reached this year. Is he willing to do that?

Meanwhile, the biggest franchise problem remains the biggest franchise problem: a farm system almost totally devoid of talent. There is a bit here and there, but there's always been a bit here and there. And we have to give credit for drafting Zack Neto and trading for Logan O'Hoppe, and there's even room to be mildly optimistic on Chase Silseth, Sam Bachman, and Ben Joyce -- all Minasian draftees. But with recent trades and graduations, there are literally no prospects--aside, perhaps, from recent 1st rounder Nolan Schanuel--who look to be probable major league regulars or better. A few sorta upside guys and a few lottery picks, but you can probably count the "maybe, if you squint just right wearing your rosiest tinted glasses" guys on two hands. 

The issue is not the risk itself. it is that it is a risk that A) Doesn't move the dial on playoff probabilities that much (if at all), and B) Worsens an already weakened farm system to anemic level. It would be one thing if the latter factor brought in significant talent, that is if the risk was balanced with a significantly better possibility of reward. But what I see, at least, is that all Minasian really did was plug mediocre holes with new mediocre players, and lost a half a dozen prospect in the process. It was desperation move after desperation move, clear evidence that Minasian is throwing a Hail Mary -- probably on his career, but certainly on the year and the foreseeable future of the franchise. And we're not talking a Tom Brady Hail Mary to get into field goal position, down by two points. We're talking a Jimmy Garappolo Hail Mary against the best cornerbacks in the league, down by eight, hoping for a touchdown and two-point conversion to get into over-time.

I hope to be proven wrong, but we may someday look back on this last week as the point when the franchise committed itself to further years of mediocrity. In other words, as of this writing, there is a very good chance that the "Dark Age" we've been in for at least the last seven or eight years, is far from over, and Perry Minasian's trades over the last month have moved the needle on that dial, and not for the better. Gone are the days when we could dream of a return to glory as being N+1 or N+2 years; we're now in the rather ominous waters of...N+X. Who knows when or how this franchise will ever turn around, but the signs aren't good.

Edited August 2, 2023 by Angelsjunky

[Revad]

Minasain has given us a shot- what would the lineup look like without these moves?  I’m not convinced it’s a bad trade off, maybe two of those prospects have a decent MLB career.  But we deserve a playoff run, at least through August.  It’s worth it.

[Angelsjunky]

Just now, Revad said:

Minasain has given us a shot- what would the lineup look like without these moves?  I’m not convinced it’s a bad trade off, maybe two of those prospects have a decent MLB career.  But we deserve a playoff run, at least through August.  It’s worth it.

That's what I question: did he really "give us a shot" or just the appearance of one?

The Escobar trade was a dud. Would anyone disagree with that? The Angels would have been better off sending Fletcher out there.

Giolito and Lopez will probably help. But at the cost of their best prospect and a top 10 guy. So it is a risk, and one worth taking - maybe - if the result is good.

Cron and Grichuk...maybe. I mean, I get it. Like at least the last one, it makes sense, though this one made in desperation (understandably, given Ward's injury). 

Today's trade was just silly. OK, Jackson isn't exactly a gem, but I don't see Leone being substantially better than one or two guys currently in AAA.

But my concern is the overall picture, which I already spoke of in the first post and won't re-elaborate, except to say that it looks more like desperation than "giving us a chance." I'm not certain that just hoping for the best until the team is re-inforced by injured players wasn't a better option. In my view, you only empty the farm when the players you bring in significantly improve your chances and when your chances are already pretty good. I just think the Angels were/are more in a "let's hope for the best and not spend away our future" place then "let's go all in, because we're so close I can smell it!" Minasian acted like the latter.

[Halo in Chicago]

He’s got 26 guys on the roster that want to win now and don’t give a crap about the potential of prospects. They’re close enough they needed to commit to going for it. Were the trades perfect? No. Will they hurt in 2-3 years? Who knows? With all the injuries we’ve gone through are we better now than we were a week ago? I’d say yes. 

He had to go for it. I’m glad he did. 

[Revad]

3 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I just think the Angels were/are more in a "let's hope for the best and not spend away our future" place then "let's go all in, because we're so close I can smell it!" Minasian acted like the latter.

I get it, an expensive gambit.  Desperation enough to acquire actual major league players to fill injury holes.  A more moderate approach would have made sense, maybe trading from the pitching staff instead of all that depth.  It’s the last season with Ohtani before his FA so some extraordinary effort  is appropriate and I’ll take it.  I like our chances to make the playoffs and think, assuming Trout, Rendon and Drury can return to health and be productive, we could make some noise especially in a short series.

[Angelsjunky]

10 minutes ago, Halo in Chicago said:

He’s got 26 guys on the roster that want to win now and don’t give a crap about the potential of prospects. They’re close enough they needed to commit to going for it. Were the trades perfect? No. Will they hurt in 2-3 years? Who knows? With all the injuries we’ve gone through are we better now than we were a week ago? I’d say yes. 

He had to go for it. I’m glad he did. 

I get it, and I don't disagree that he "had to go for it." I just don't like the overall picture, which is as I illustrated in the first couple paragraphs: sending the franchise into deeper debt on lottery picks. As a rule, I'm more of the Bill Stoneman mold: hold onto your prospects, even unreasonably. That approach notoriously halted a Kendrick/Wood (and parts) for Miggy Cabrera trade which looked awful a year or two later, but it also built up substantial farm depth that gave the Angels their best run in franchise history.

I'm not on the team, but I'm also not a "win now, worry about tomorrow" fan. To me that is short-sighted and just leads to perennial disappointment. To me the farm is sacred, and the most important aspect of a franchise. Until the Angels build a good and vibrant farm system, we'll just get more of the same: year after year of 70-85 win seasons.

Edited August 2, 2023 by Angelsjunky

[Angelsjunky]

1 minute ago, Revad said:

I get it, an expensive gambit.  Desperation enough to acquire actual major league players to fill injury holes.  A more moderate approach would have made sense, maybe trading from the pitching staff instead of all that depth.  It’s the last season with Ohtani before his FA so some extraordinary effort  is appropriate and I’ll take it.  I like our chances to make the playoffs and think, assuming Trout, Rendon and Drury can return to health and be productive, we could make some noise especially in a short series.

I hope you're right!

 

[AngelsLakersFan]

This is the last year of the window, so push your chips in and see what happens.

They were going to suck next year anyway, either with Ohtani and nothing else or without Ohtani.

Hopefully Moreno goes back to selling the team and Minasian has the ability to do a bit of a rebuild.

[Halo in Chicago]

4 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I get it, and I don't disagree that he "had to go for it." I just don't like the overall picture, which is as I illustrated in the first couple paragraphs: sending the franchise into deeper debt on lottery picks. As a rule, I'm more of the Bill Stoneman mold: hold onto your prospects, even unreasonably. That approach notorious halted a Kendrick/Wood (and parts) for Miggy Cabrera trade which looked awful a year or two later, but it also built up substantial farm depth that gave the Angels their best run in franchise history.

I'm not on the team, but I'm also not a "win now, worry about tomorrow" fan. To me that is short-sighted and just leads to perennial disappointment. To me the farm is sacred, and the most important aspect of a franchise. Until the Angels build a good and vibrant farm system, we'll just get more of the same: year after year of 70-85 win seasons.

I hear you. It’s a tough call. I guess I just don’t think the prospects we have up were indispensable and it’s easy for us fans to say let’s keep the prospects and play the long game, but I can’t imagine that plays well with the 26 guys busting it day in and day out.

It’s August and we’re playing meaningful games. That’s a nice change. 

[T.G.]

The credit card analogy doesn’t work for me. I pay off my credit cards every month and I have no debt.

[howie]

None of the prospects we gave up is a Hall of Famer, - I’ve come around to the position that if these moves give Trout and Ohtani a little better chance to go to the playoffs together then it’s worth it even if just for the entertainment value.

I think the biggest problem has been the injuries.  If there had even been half as many as we’ve had, I think the trades might look different.  Not only that, but there are still 2 months left which means even more chance of injuries so we need all the semi solid major league depth we can get.  Sorry, Jeremiah Jackson, Quero, Crow etc aren’t going to help us make the playoffs and won’t help us in the playoffs.  

[jsnpritchett]

3 minutes ago, T.G. said:

The credit card analogy doesn’t work for me. I pay off my credit cards every month and I have no debt.

Thanks, Dave Ramsey.

[Angelsfan1984]

How often do highly ranked prospects actually live up to the hype? Let’s assume for a second that ohtani walks and the angels get a comp pick…what is the likelihood that the 2nd rounder comes in and provides even an ounce of what ohtani does. 
 

while I agree prospect capital is a very valuable commodity, at some point those prospects have to do something on the field. All those years of x farm system ranked 3rd or 5th…etc…what did that produce? You’re the perfect person because I’m sure you already know the answer…how many top 5 farms have won the World Series over the last 20 years?

[Second Base]

At some point, when will we acknowledge....

Dipoto - Bloated payroll, empty farm system, failed to build a winner.

Eppler - Bloated payroll, empty farm system, failed to build a winner.

Minasian - Bloated payroll, empty farm system, failed to build a winner.

The hard truth is, the Angels have tell avenues for contention...

1. Outspend everyone in free agency.

2. Enter the difficult period of a rebuild where they sell off anything of value in return for prospects, lower payroll to be reallocated much later on to extend homegrown players, shop the bargain bin in FA to fill out rosters until the trade deadline when you can flip them for more prospects, draft at the top of the first round because of your piss poor record, spend big on teenage lotto tickets in international free agency and return to contention in 2028 with a sustainable model of success, which is a combination of a strong farm, and the ability to spend big. 

[Wisconsin27]

47 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

First, let's compare:

A reasonable, if risky approach: Go into debt setting up a business that has a good chance of being profitable. The idea being, you borrow from the future but establish a means to not only pay it back, but eventually earn a profit.

Perry Minasian's approach this trade deadline: Go into debt on lottery tickets in the hope that you get lucky and, if so, you can get lucky again and again.

What he's done is (further) empty the farm and brought in only mediocre and/or short-term talent in return. The Angels didn't exactly have a nest of golden-egg prospects, but they had a dozen or so decent ones and traded a bunch of them away. And for what?

Perhaps the worst example is actually from about a month ago: Coleman Crow and Landon Marceaux for Eduardo Escobar. Now Crow and Marceaux aren't great prospects (Fangraphs had them at 40 and 35+ FV, respectively), but both have solid chances of becoming back-end starters and/or solid middle relievers, and Crow maybe a bit more.

Escobar has been nothing short of terrible: in 23 games for the Angels he's had a 60 wRC+ and produced -0.6 WAR, which is second only to Walsh (-0.7) in negative value. He's been worse than the players he was supposed to replace. In other words, Minasian basically threw away two decent prospects for a player that made the team worse.

Book-ending Minasian's dubious--and rather Dipotoan--trade season is today's trade, Jeremiah Jackson (40+ FV) for Dominic Leone. Jackson is a toolsy shortstop who impressed back in 2019 when he hit 23 in 65 Rookie ball games at 19. His rise was slowed by injuries and swing-and-miss issues and is currently in his second season in AA at age 23, hitting .248/.321/.447 -- hardly a sure thing but still with a bit of upside. In other words, not a guy you dream on (anymore), but someone you stash in the hopes that he surprises.

And who is Leone? A 31-year old reliever who has produced a 3.75 ERA and 1.8 WAR in 386.2 major league innings, though aside from two good years in 2017 and 2021 (1.5 and 0.9 WAR) most of that has been just above or below 0.0 WAR. In other words, he's a mediocre journeyman reliever. I would argue that the difference between Leone and half a dozen pitchers on most AAA teams is that when Leone got a chance, he didn't blow it, but he's essentially no better than those dozens of AAA pitchers. He's the 50-year old guy you work with that doesn't really improve the company, but is a known quantity of mediocrity.

All things told, Minasian has traded away six players in the Angelswin pre-season top 20 prospects--Crow and Marceaux, plus Edgar Quero, Ky Bush, Jake Madden, and Mason Albright--and received a who's who of journeyman hitters and pitchers in return. Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez are both above average, though both seem to have fallen a notch from their prime.

But more importantly, all of them are heading for free agency (assuming the Angels don't take Escobar's option). Meanwhile, the Angels are six solid prospects poorer than they were a month ago.

Was it worth it? Well, all of Minasian's trades were made to increase the slim possibility that the Angels can eek out a wildcard spot, thereby helping convince Shohei Ohtani to stay and then build a perennial contender around him. According to Fangraphs, the Angels chances have gone from 22.7% the morning after the Giolito-Lopez trade to 16.6% going into today's game (certainly lower now after today's loss). Meaning, these moves didn't move the dial, at least not in the right direction. To be fair, I'm not sure how much Fangraphs' algorithm takes into account roster moves; since then, the Angels are 2-3. So the returns so far aren't positive, if not (yet) disastrous.

Back to the initial point. Using a credit card is sometimes likened to borrowing from your own future. It makes fiscal sense when you are investing in something that can earn it back, and when the risk is balanced by potential reward, with a minimal chance of destitution. What are the Angels investing in? A slightly greater chance of making the playoffs this year - or at least the appearance of a better chance. But at what cost? And what do they expect to do next year, with or without Ohtani? With Ohtani, payroll will be higher than ever; presumably Arte would be willing to spend even more, but considering the gaps on the roster, he's going to have to get into Yankees-Dodgers payroll territory, if not quite the stratospheric heights the Mets reached this year. Is he willing to do that?

Meanwhile, the biggest franchise problem remains the biggest franchise problem: a farm system almost totally devoid of talent. There is a bit here and there, but there's always been a bit here and there. And we have to give credit for drafting Zack Neto and trading for Logan O'Hoppe, and there's even room to be mildly optimistic on Chase Silseth, Sam Bachman, and Ben Joyce -- all Minasian draftees. But with recent trades and graduations, there are literally no prospects--aside, perhaps, from recent 1st rounder Nolan Schanuel--who look to be probable major league regulars or better. A few sorta upside guys and a few lottery picks, but you can probably count the "maybe, if you squint just right wearing your rosiest tinted glasses" guys on two hands. 

The issue is not the risk itself. it is that it is a risk that A) Doesn't move the dial on playoff probabilities that much (if at all), and B) Worsens an already weakened farm system to anemic level. It would be one thing if the latter factor brought in significant talent, that is if the risk was balanced with a significantly better possibility of reward. But what I see, at least, is that all Minasian really did was plug mediocre holes with new mediocre players, and lost a half a dozen prospect in the process. It was desperation move after desperation move, clear evidence that Minasian is throwing a Hail Mary -- probably on his career, but certainly on the year and the foreseeable future of the franchise. And we're not talking a Tom Brady Hail Mary to get into field goal position, down by two points. We're talking a Jimmy Garappolo Hail Mary against the best cornerbacks in the league, down by eight, hoping for a touchdown and two-point conversion to get into over-time.

I hope to be proven wrong, but we may someday look back on this last week as the point when the franchise committed itself to further years of mediocrity. In other words, as of this writing, there is a very good chance that the "Dark Age" we've been in for at least the last seven or eight years, is far from over, and Perry Minasian's trades over the last month have moved the needle on that dial, and not for the better. Gone are the days when we could dream of a return to glory as being N+1 or N+2 years; we're now in the rather ominous waters of...N+X. Who knows when or how this franchise will ever turn around, but the signs aren't good.

You're going to catch a lot of hell for this post.  And I understand why as we have suffered for what seems like forever and LONG for some sort of reason to be excited in August/September.

That said, I agree with your premise outside of two things.  I like what Perry did with the resources he had to work with.  And I don't buy for a second the decision was Perry's.  It was Arte's.  

If you have a moment, ESPN has a 1 minute clip on the decision that is worth a watch.

Perry has proven to be exceptional, imo.  Just exceptional.  His drafts have been wonderful and he took orders and put us in a position to fill gaps until the cavalry arrives.  It's got me more excited for the fall than I have been in over a decade.

Organizationally, the decision to "go for it" is an absolute disaster in terms of lost opportunity costs.  A 40 year old Verlander just landed the Astros top two prospects.  What would Ohtani have landed last year at this time?  Hell, even this year when our odds of making the playoffs were 15%ish and we had multiple starters out while facing a daunting August schedule?

More importantly, if it all works out and Ohtani resigns (honestly, regardless of whether we make the playoffs), Arte has to either sell the team or go over the luxury tax threshold (something he wouldn't do for Mike).  It's really that simple as anything short of either of those and we'll be in the same position we've lived in for the last 10 years.  It's really that simple.

I'll end with this and not targeted at any of my fellow Angel-brethren in particular.  I hope everyone remembers the last month accurately 2-4 years from now.  This decision is for the present/this year.  We will be paying for it for years to come (if Arte remains owner and maintains current payroll).  I wouldn't run my business that way and I don't pile up credit card debt at home for the same reasons.  The bill always comes due.

I'm jacked for this fall and think we have a true shot.  In the end, Ohtani will "get his" and likely go to the team he feels most comfortable with that hands out top-level dough.  We've seen it over and over in sports, but the hometown discount is increasingly becoming a thing of the past.  Ohtani may be different and I find myself thinking that at times.  But even then, it's up to Arte to deliver.

 

 

[Wisconsin27]

5 minutes ago, Second Base said:

At some point, when will we acknowledge....

Dipoto - Bloated payroll, empty farm system, failed to build a winner.

Eppler - Bloated payroll, empty farm system, failed to build a winner.

Minasian - Bloated payroll, empty farm system, failed to build a winner.

The hard truth is, the Angels have tell avenues for contention...

1. Outspend everyone in free agency.

2. Enter the difficult period of a rebuild where they sell off anything of value in return for prospects, lower payroll to be reallocated much later on to extend homegrown players, shop the bargain bin in FA to fill out rosters until the trade deadline when you can flip them for more prospects, draft at the top of the first round because of your piss poor record, spend big on teenage lotto tickets in international free agency and return to contention in 2028 with a sustainable model of success, which is a combination of a strong farm, and the ability to spend big. 

You're going to catch hell for this post, too:-)

 

 

[Revad]

21 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Thanks, Dave Ramsey.

Spending prospects on rentals is a losing game.  It’s like paying off the low interest rate loans before the credit cards.

[Angelsjunky]

31 minutes ago, Second Base said:

At some point, when will we acknowledge....

Dipoto - Bloated payroll, empty farm system, failed to build a winner.

Eppler - Bloated payroll, empty farm system, failed to build a winner.

Minasian - Bloated payroll, empty farm system, failed to build a winner.

The hard truth is, the Angels have tell avenues for contention...

1. Outspend everyone in free agency.

2. Enter the difficult period of a rebuild where they sell off anything of value in return for prospects, lower payroll to be reallocated much later on to extend homegrown players, shop the bargain bin in FA to fill out rosters until the trade deadline when you can flip them for more prospects, draft at the top of the first round because of your piss poor record, spend big on teenage lotto tickets in international free agency and return to contention in 2028 with a sustainable model of success, which is a combination of a strong farm, and the ability to spend big. 

Yup, another angle at what I'm getting at. We're never going to have the perennial contending team that we almost had 15 years ago, unless we go through that difficult period. It is like losing weight: you just have to buckle down and do without pizza and ice cream for a long period of time, and then when you get to your target weight, take a more moderate point going forward. The sad thing is, it didn't have to be this way. Really all they would have had to do is go through a bumpy 2-3 years in 2010-12ish, disavowed Big Splashes and focused on rebuilding. But Arte couldn't handle that and after 2010 spun out with binge"after binge. Arte's denial and megalomania led to Wells then Pujols, Hamilton, Upton, etc. Fast forward and now we're one of the bottom third worst franchises in baseball, regardless of the presence of two players.

With Eppler there was hope that they could retool and rebuild at the same time. Didn't work. With Minasian, the hope re-emerged. Doesn't look like he's doing that. 

 

Edited August 2, 2023 by Angelsjunky

[Angelsjunky]

3 minutes ago, Revad said:

Spending prospects on rentals is a losing game.  It’s like paying off the low interest rate loans before the credit cards.

Yes, and Minasian took that route rather than TG's.

 

15 minutes ago, Wisconsin27 said:

You're going to catch a lot of hell for this post.  And I understand why as we have suffered for what seems like forever and LONG for some sort of reason to be excited in August/September.

That said, I agree with your premise outside of two things.  I like what Perry did with the resources he had to work with.  And I don't buy for a second the decision was Perry's.  It was Arte's.  

If you have a moment, ESPN has a 1 minute clip on the decision that is worth a watch.

Perry has proven to be exceptional, imo.  Just exceptional.  His drafts have been wonderful and he took orders and put us in a position to fill gaps until the cavalry arrives.  It's got me more excited for the fall than I have been in over a decade.

Organizationally, the decision to "go for it" is an absolute disaster in terms of lost opportunity costs.  A 40 year old Verlander just landed the Astros top two prospects.  What would Ohtani have landed last year at this time?  Hell, even this year when our odds of making the playoffs were 15%ish and we had multiple starters out while facing a daunting August schedule?

More importantly, if it all works out and Ohtani resigns (honestly, regardless of whether we make the playoffs), Arte has to either sell the team or go over the luxury tax threshold (something he wouldn't do for Mike).  It's really that simple as anything short of either of those and we'll be in the same position we've lived in for the last 10 years.  It's really that simple.

I'll end with this and not targeted at any of my fellow Angel-brethren in particular.  I hope everyone remembers the last month accurately 2-4 years from now.  This decision is for the present/this year.  We will be paying for it for years to come (if Arte remains owner and maintains current payroll).  I wouldn't run my business that way and I don't pile up credit card debt at home for the same reasons.  The bill always comes due.

I'm jacked for this fall and think we have a true shot.  In the end, Ohtani will "get his" and likely go to the team he feels most comfortable with that hands out top-level dough.  We've seen it over and over in sports, but the hometown discount is increasingly becoming a thing of the past.  Ohtani may be different and I find myself thinking that at times.  But even then, it's up to Arte to deliver.

 

 

OK, this is reasonable and hopeful at the same time. Maybe Perry can pull a rabbit out of a hat this offseason, I don't know. Maybe they actually sneak a wildcard berth--or come close enough--that Arte opens up the vault and not only keeps Ohtani, but goes hog-wild. And then maybe, the next few years is fun. I'd be happy with that.

But...the farm is as bad as I've ever seen. I'd feel more hopeful if Perry announces that Arte has green-lit a huge international scouting program, and if Perry starts hoarding prospects like Stoneman. A few 85-90 win seasons will be a lot better than the last eight years, and maybe one of them gets to 93 wins and a playoff erth, but I want to see some sign of long-term planning. I want to see some sign that A) Perry understands the importance of a great farm, and B) that Arte supports such efforts. 

So far we haven't even really seen A yet, let alone B. We've seen that Minasian is pretty good with draft picks. I've been vocal in liking the Schanuel pick, and maybe he'll be the 2024 Neto. But he's going to need a lot more than that. I don't mean tanking and getting high draft picks -- it is nice to get top 5 picks, but those can be risky too. For every Alex Bregman there's a Mark Appel. What I mean is draft after draft of savvy picks, smart development, international scouting, and hoarding prospects. 

Meaning, if you're going to go for it with free agency, leave the farm alone. Keep planting and cultivating, but don't continually Dipoto-ize it every year.

[Angelsjunky]

42 minutes ago, T.G. said:

The credit card analogy doesn’t work for me. I pay off my credit cards every month and I have no debt.

Not sure what your point is - the analogy wasn't meant to illustrate your financial habits. But OK: you're smarter than the Angels. Good for you.

[Revad]

14 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Meaning, if you're going to go for it with free agency, leave the farm alone. Keep planting and cultivating, but don't continually Dipoto-ize it every year.

I agree. If, as someone suggested somewhere recently in one of the strings, Minasain is also sort of cleaning out Eppler draft picks and that might be ok with the farm.  I’m sure he has his own analytics approach and he has given his people time to sort through the options, also perhaps competing for a year moves the organization forward in a way that is needed- toward winning.  Certainly this approach is not sustainable but for one year it makes sense.  Maybe if we can’t sign an ace type next year we can hold onto our second round draft choice.

 

 

Edited August 2, 2023 by Revad

[ten ocho recon scout]

This could all backfire for sure. 

And I've been in the "develop a farm camp" for years now. And I was pretty much Team "trade Ohtani" a year ago.

That said. This franchise and fan base are desperate. And it's not necessarily a "bad thing". It just is what it is.

This is the best shot we've had in years. Personally I think it's the right move. You have 2 months left of the greatest player perhaps ever. You have to at kesst try. (After watching him with nothing the past few years).

And like @Inside Pitch mentioned yesterday, you have to give credit to these guys for still hanging in there after all the injuries.

And soon we'll get some guys back.

Maybe we end up shitting our pants. And everyone in the room knows it, and we have to erase our social media and move. Who knows.

But like I said, I think it's the right move.

I'll also add here that we haven't gone for it in several years now... we haven't traded prospects to try and win a long time...

And our farm still didn't produce a whole lot. I'm not sure any of the guys we traded were rated as highly as Adell, Marsh and Ward?

And remember that plenty on here were stoked when we obtained Kevin Maitan, former top prospect.

Shoulder shrug.

We may still miss the playoffs, but at least we're likely in it to the very end. And maybe that's enough to entice Ohtani. Of so it's worth it.

[Warfarin]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

I get it, and I don't disagree that he "had to go for it." I just don't like the overall picture, which is as I illustrated in the first couple paragraphs: sending the franchise into deeper debt on lottery picks. As a rule, I'm more of the Bill Stoneman mold: hold onto your prospects, even unreasonably. That approach notoriously halted a Kendrick/Wood (and parts) for Miggy Cabrera trade which looked awful a year or two later, but it also built up substantial farm depth that gave the Angels their best run in franchise history.

I'm not on the team, but I'm also not a "win now, worry about tomorrow" fan. To me that is short-sighted and just leads to perennial disappointment. To me the farm is sacred, and the most important aspect of a franchise. Until the Angels build a good and vibrant farm system, we'll just get more of the same: year after year of 70-85 win seasons.

Hard to say exactly, but I am guessing that his boss told him to push for it.  If Arte is telling him to trade what he can to contend, he has to essentially comply, right?  And this was definitely a sellers market.

As I said before, I think trading Quero hurts, if anything because I think his value was higher than what we got in return, but I also don't think anyone was traded that will become a star or really good player, either, with the exception of Quero if he ends up being a good defensive catcher.

[Warfarin]

27 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yes, and Minasian took that route rather than TG's.

 

OK, this is reasonable and hopeful at the same time. Maybe Perry can pull a rabbit out of a hat this offseason, I don't know. Maybe they actually sneak a wildcard berth--or come close enough--that Arte opens up the vault and not only keeps Ohtani, but goes hog-wild. And then maybe, the next few years is fun. I'd be happy with that.

But...the farm is as bad as I've ever seen. I'd feel more hopeful if Perry announces that Arte has green-lit a huge international scouting program, and if Perry starts hoarding prospects like Stoneman. A few 85-90 win seasons will be a lot better than the last eight years, and maybe one of them gets to 93 wins and a playoff erth, but I want to see some sign of long-term planning. I want to see some sign that A) Perry understands the importance of a great farm, and B) that Arte supports such efforts. 

So far we haven't even really seen A yet, let alone B. We've seen that Minasian is pretty good with draft picks. I've been vocal in liking the Schanuel pick, and maybe he'll be the 2024 Neto. But he's going to need a lot more than that. I don't mean tanking and getting high draft picks -- it is nice to get top 5 picks, but those can be risky too. For every Alex Bregman there's a Mark Appel. What I mean is draft after draft of savvy picks, smart development, international scouting, and hoarding prospects. 

Meaning, if you're going to go for it with free agency, leave the farm alone. Keep planting and cultivating, but don't continually Dipoto-ize it every year.

JMO, but I think Perry is far more adept at developing talent than any of his predecessors.  Time will tell, but I think even though our farm ranking is "poor," more of these guys will turn into good players than would have under Depot or Eppler.  I think Perry has assembled a strong player development team.  

[Angelsjunky]

6 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

JMO, but I think Perry is far more adept at developing talent than any of his predecessors.  Time will tell, but I think even though our farm ranking is "poor," more of these guys will turn into good players than would have under Depot or Eppler.  I think Perry has assembled a strong player development team.  

The jury is still out because, as they say, the proof is in the pudding. All we know is that he's--at least--pretty good at drafting (e.g. Neto). But we haven't yet seen if his team is good at player development, simply because that takes at least several years.

That said, the signs aren't great with that big crop of international signings from a few years ago -  Vera, Ramirez, Placencia, etc. I can't remember if these guys were signed by Eppler or Minasian. But the next group were definitely Minasian: Guzman, then Rada and DeJesus, etc. So maybe we need to see how they develop as a test of his team.